海外投资者在伦敦新建住宅市场中的作用（英文版）.pdf

Annex B The role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market Final report for Homes for London Kath Scanlon, Christine Whitehead and Fanny Blanc with Ulises Moreno-Tabarez May 2017 Table of Contents Executive summary . 2 I The research questions . 4 Approach . 4 II Background: characterising the market . 5 New-build homes for sale . 5 Amount of new-build currently for private sale across London . 5 Segmentation of the London residential market . 6 III Question 1: the proportion of overseas buyers in the market . 8 Sales to overseas buyers . 9 IV Question 2: The proportion of new residential units bought and left vacant . 15 V Question 3: The role of pre-sales and off-plan sales . 20 VI Question 4: The role of major overseas investors in the residential development process in London . 23 Investment at scale in London new-build residential property . 23 Large-scale investment from overseas institutions and individuals . 24 Financing residential development . 25 VII Conclusions . 26 Acknowledgements . 29 References . 29 Executive summary The project: The team was asked to look at four main research questions: What proportion of new residential units in London is bought by overseas buyers? What proportion of these units is left empty? To what extent do the funding models of London residential developers rely on off-plan sales to overseas buyers? What is the role of major overseas investors (such as pension funds, sovereign wealth, debt providers, shareholdings) in the residential development process in London? Methods: Our approach included secondary data analysis; individual sales data from agents; and interviews with developers, agents, managers and other stakeholders. The sales data covered approximately 10% of new private units for sale during a two-year period, April 214 to March 2016 and we interviewed the developers involved with over 50% of new units. There were many issues around definitions and data availability which means our findings should be seen as an (incomplete) jigsaw rather than a definitive picture. The proportion of new residential units in London bought by overseas buyers: About a third of the sales handled by certain international estate agents between April 2014 and April 2016 were to overseas buyers, rising to over 50% in central London (where the number of new units is small). Information from developers is consistent with this in particular parts of the market. However many developers hardly sell any units to overseas residents so the overall proportion of new market units sold to overseas buyers is undoubtedly much lower; the York University analysis suggests around 13% of new market housing was sold to overseas residents across London as a whole in the two years to March 2016. The proportion of new units sold to buyers resident overseas declines with distance from the centre. Related to this, the higher the unit prices, the higher the proportion of overseas buyers. Overseas buyers, most of whom come from Asia and the Middle East, purchase London property for three main reasons: as an investment to let out; to accommodate family (notably students or sometimes returning expats); and/or as a London home to be used for work-related or vacation visits. The evidence from agents and developers suggested that 70% or more of sales were for letting purposes with a maximum of 30% in the other two categories. The proportion of units left empty: Developers estimated occupancy rates for individual schemes were generally up to 95%. There was almost no evidence of units being left entirely empty - certainly less than 1%. Units bought to be let out appear to have very high occupancy rates and indeed some are over-occupied e.g. by students. However for those units bought as second homes, occupancy could be as little as a few weeks a year. Many such second home sales are to UK residents, not overseas buyers. The importance of pre-sales to London residential developers: Except for housing associations, developers almost all said they needed pre-sales to ensure a pipeline of development. Some banks and other debt finance institutions required pre-sales before lending, but more importantly developers needed pre-sales to reduce the risks associated with market volatility and the lumpiness of completions in apartment blocks. Off-plan sales were usually to overseas buyers as they had more experience buying this way and were not constrained by UK mortgage offers. Domestic pre-sales were also important to developers but occurred somewhat later in the development process. Developers usually aimed to have little or no unsold stock by the time schemes were complete, as this tied up capital and slowed production. This was seen to disadvantage first-time buyers; in response some developers held some units back for them, while others said they would sell to UK buyers who could show that in principle they could get a mortgage. The role of major overseas investors in the residential development process in London: Almost all Londons very large residential development sites have used overseas investment to get them started and speed up development. In addition, many Build to Rent schemes (large-scale purpose-built PRS) have benefited from overseas funding during the development process, and/or are owned by foreign institutions. The very large increase in Build to Rent output in 2015/16 stems significantly from increased international investment. Additionality: On reasonable, conservative assumptions Londoners may be excluded as tenants or owners from perhaps 6% of private new-build units. This cost is offset by the effect of overseas sales and investment on developers decisions to build and the speed of delivery. The pattern after 2010, when the effects of the financial crisis were at their worst, suggests that overseas investment since then has had a positive net effect on the availability to Londoners of new housing, both private and affordable. In summary: Our project was limited to four specific questions around overseas buyers and investors in the new housing market. It should not be seen as a full cost benefit analysis. Quite large proportions of new build units are bought by overseas residents. The proportion is highest in central London but total numbers there are small; A substantial majority of the units bought by overseas investors are let out to Londoners; Others are being used by family members, children in education, or returning expats and are fully occupied; A small, but highly visible, subset of new build market housing is lived in only occasionally. Yet even owners of London homes who come to London relatively rarely often contribute significant benefits to the London economy; Sales to overseas buyers accelerate development through their impact on developers decisions to build and thus make more market and affordable housing available- especially given that affordable housing is currently largely a by-product of market development; International investment and finance have helped bring stalled sites into use and speed up development especially on larger sites. They have also been key to creating a UK Build to Rent sector. I The research questions LSE London, a research centre at the London School of Economics, has undertaken research on behalf of the Greater London Authority (GLA) better to understand the role of overseas investors in the London new-build residential market. The findings will help inform the development of policy in this area. The team was asked to look at four main research questions: What proportion of new residential units in London is bought by overseas buyers? What proportion of these units is left empty? To what extent do the funding models of London residential developers rely on off-plan sales to overseas buyers? What is the role of major overseas investors (such as pension funds, sovereign wealth, debt providers, shareholdings) in the residential development process in London? The research looked not only at how many units are sold to overseas buyers and how these units are used, but also at the potential importance of these buyers in enabling new supply, including the supply of affordable housing and the direct involvement of overseas investors in supporting new development. Detailed sub-questions, as agreed with the GLA, can be found in Appendix 1. Many of the questions are couched in quantitative terms, but the evidence available is relatively limited, often partial, and sometimes difficult to interpret. The research process was therefore rather like assembling a jigsaw using both quantitative and qualitative elements. Inevitably the results include some important gaps. It is important to stress that the research covered only newly built private sector homes. It did not address the role of international investors in the much larger market for existing homes. Moreover, the definition of overseas buyer is someone whose main residential address at the time of property purchase was outside the UK, regardless of their nationality. This means that a UK expat living in Dubai would be classed as an overseas buyer, whereas a French national living in Kensington (or indeed in Edinburgh) would be regarded as a UK buyer. Approach This report brings together evidence from three main sources: A literature review which looked at academic and other research, ephemeral and grey literature, market commentaries and web-based materials; Quantitative data, mainly from three sources: o major international estate agencies that market London homes overseas o Molior, a commercial organisation that tracks new residential development in London o Real Capital Analytics, an international firm that logs major investments in the property market, including existing buildings and development sites in London Interview and survey material o more than 30 semi-structured interviews with informed stakeholders involved at all stages of the development, finance, marketing and management processes. Some of the responses have included quantitative elements. o Written survey of members of the London group of the House Builders Federation. II Background: characterising the market Here we look at the scale of new build in London and the importance of new homes relative to all residential transactions. We then set out how various commentators categorise London residential markets. New-build homes for sale In this project we looked specifically at overseas investors role in the market for new homes in the capital. In 2015-2016, 24,180 new dwellings were completed in London (DCLG Live Table 253, 2016) of which just over 17,000 were in the private sector. This was considerably more than in the previous four years when the figures were 20,000 or fewer in total and 12,000 or fewer in the private sector. Importantly, annual additions add less than 1% to Londons housing stock (BPF, 2014, p. 5). New-build homes have made up less than 10% of Londons housing transactions for most of the period since 1995 (Figure 1). In the last four years the proportion has risen to something over 13%. Figure 1: New-build home sales as a proportion of all London sales since 1995 Source: HM Land Registry Amount of new-build currently for private sale across London In January 2017 Molior listed 610 residential development schemes with 20 or more units consented for private sale in London, including housing-association developments, for sale. Some 93 of these schemes were complete but not yet fully sold; the rest were partly or entirely under construction. As of January 2017 these schemes had a total of 97,500 units at some stage of construction, or complete but not sold. There were a total of 925 units still for sale in developments that were physically complete. The schemes with high proportions of unsold units tended to be smaller developments, and a very small number had phases that were complete but not yet launched. Looking at the spatial distribution of development, as of the beginning of 2017, of the units under development only 5% were in central London, with around 57% in inner London and 38% in outer London, even though outer London covers a much larger area. As at the beginning of 2017, of the units under development, Tower Hamlets, Greenwich and Wandsworth were the boroughs with the 4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14% highest numbers of units being developed (Figure 2). These are all in inner London and together accounted for nearly a third of overall London numbers. By contrast ten London boroughs each had fewer than 1000 units under development; together they accounted for just 6% of London private housing output on this measure (see Annex B). Figure 2: Number of residential units under development by borough, January 2017 Segmentation of the London residential market Market actors describe Londons residential submarkets in a variety of ways. The main international agents typically distinguish between prime London and the mainstream market, with prime generally encompassing parts of several central London boroughs (usually Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, Camden and Southwark). Other, parallel designations of