德勤：2025年汽车供应商展望_72页_2mb.pdf

The Future of the Automotive Value ChainSupplier industry outlook 2025The Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 202503Preface 05Unprecedented change in the automotive world and its potential impact on the supplier industry 06Four plausible scenarios for the automotive value chain and their implications for the supplier industry 12The Deloitte Automotive Value Chain Industry Model 20Investigating specific material cost developments:Selected model deep dives 30Overall model result overview 45Transformation paths towards 2025 for the automotive supplier industry 46From integrated material cost projections to tailor-made transformation strategies for automotive suppliers 63Conclusion 67Contacts 6804%The Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 202505Automotive players are facing disruptive times.Many insights,opinions,and rec-ommendations have been voiced on this.Earlier in 2017,we published our views on the drivers that will likely shape the auto-motive industry over the next decade.We ranked and fused these into four scenario narratives,giving an outline of what the automotive value chain might look like in 2025.Our previous issue primarily high-lighted implications for car manufacturers(OEMs).In this next piece we move further down the value chain,in an attempt to shed light on supplier market implications.We defined a set of four hypotheses as a starting point to our investigation:Commonly discussed automotivemega-trends,like connected and auton-omous drive or electrification,will lead tosignificant change in demand for specificvehicle component clusters As a result(some)suppliers will face dras-tically shrinking market volumes,whereasothers must be able to manage massivedemand increases This will result in significant,strategic,operational,financial,transformationdemand for many suppliers Portfolio and localization strategy defini-tion processes should be supported bya solid market volume projection modeltaking all these drivers and megatrendsinto accountPreface We worked towards validating all these hypotheses by developing the Deloitte Automotive Value Chain(AVC)Industry Model,a comprehensive material cost forecasting tool,which gives volume predictions broken down into a vehicles component clusters.The model shows that 15 out of 19 vehicle component clusters will likely see a decline in market volume(in Germany,NAFTA and China;not con-sidering effects from general inflation or spare parts demand).The biggest losers will be components related to conventional combustion engines,e.g.transmissions dropping up to-36%in volume.Likely winners,especially suppliers with stakes in the fields of electric drivetrains and battery technology,as well as autonomous driving feature development,on the other hand,must prepare to manage and cater for growing demand of up to 15 times their current volume.Regional projections show that while material cost volumes in Germa-ny are facing a general decline,volumes in China will increase due to general strong vehicle sales forecasts.Our core premise,however,is that scenar-io-based thinking is the best preparation for dealing with the uncertainties the future automotive industry developments hold.Therefore,we split each of our volume pro-jections along our four scenarios for 2025 and beyond.By presenting the Deloitte AVC Industry Model now to the broader public,we are confident that we are bringing valuable support to the table for automotive de-cision makers when it comes to tackling some of the most burning strategic deci-sions.We hope you enjoy reading our insights and thoughts on the future of the automo-tive value chain and the related supplier markets.Joe Vitale Global Automotive Lead at Deloitte Consulting Dr.Thomas Schiller Global Automotive Consulting Lead at Deloitte Consulting 0620%connectMore than ever before,the auto-motive industry today is in a state of constant pressure:From cus-tomers demanding new and costly features often without showing additional willingness to pay.From regulators rightfully demanding strictest adherence to environ-mental and safety standards.And also from major tech players with pockets full of cash pushing investment in mobility business models and threatening traditional OEM dominance.Unprecedented change in the automotive world and its potential impact on the supplier industryThe Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 20250720%connect08Context It is well known that the n-tier automotive supply chain is strongly interlinked and ul-timately depends heavily on todays seem-ingly almighty OEMs.The burning question for many decision-makers in the automo-tive supplier industry is how to REACT to these,potentially existential,changes and threats in the industry landscape.Or,more importantly:How to ACT,with vigor and strategic foresight,and be in a position not only to survive,but to come out on top of the disruptions facing the automotive value chain until 2025 and beyond.This study focuses on possible develop-ments in supplier market volumes,their un-derlying trends as well as their implications for decision makers:In the economic and political sphere,at automotive suppliers as well as in OEM development,purchasing,and manufacturing departments.We aim to support automotive leaders in times of great uncertainty by highlighting four quan-tified scenarios of what the automotive ecosystem might look like in 2025.Study approach Following up on our previous issue on the future of the automotive value chain,we based all our considerations on one simple assumption:Future industry developments are hardly ever one-dimensional.Rather,they are based on a multitude of drivers,which almost never develop in a straightforward way.When uncertainty is high,thinking in scenarios can help.So we reviewed the four scenario narratives de-scribing possible states of the automotive value chain in 2025,which were developed for the previous study together with several top automotive managers,mobility entrepreneurs,researchers,lobbyists,as well as IT and battery developers.We enhanced these scenario narratives with more in-depth insights and discussions around the future of the automotive supplier industry,so we were able to specifically tack-le supplier-related concerns(in chapter II).The methodical base for this differentiated analysis was the breakdown of a vehicle into its modules and components:What will electrification,connected and autonomous driving or other user trends change in components used in the car of the future?What are the material cost implications from these trends?And consequently,what impact will all of this have on supplier mar-ket volumes and industry structures?We developed an integrated calculation model,summarizing all our thinking and as-sumptions on future material cost trends distinguished along the four scenarios outlined above.From this Deloitte AVC Industry Model we derived differentiated material cost market volume forecasts 2025 for vehicles in Germany,China and NAFTA(in chapter III).The Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 202509Fig.1 Questions from selected interviews with automotive suppliers and other industry experts Which drivetrain technology will prevail in the future and how does it impact my portfolio strategy?What will cars look like in 2025?w fast will customers accept autonomous driving once the safety issues are solved?w will the changing require-ments shift capacities and demand work-force transfor-mation?Should suppliers set up partnerships to work together on new technologies,and with whom?w can suppliers with shrinking market volumes compensate these negative eects?What will the supplier landscape look like in 2025?We exemplify our reasoning and model outputs(in chapter IV)along four selected vehicle component clusters where we might see the biggest material cost impact until 2025 and also face the greatest uncertainty:Interior&infotainment sys-tems,drivetrain technologies(incl.internal combustion engines,transmission and alternative drivetrains),high voltage(HV)batteries&fuel cells,and driver assistance systems.We provide an outline of the key technology trends that are expected to determine the long-term material cost de-velopment for each component cluster.In each case,however,we stress the different specifications these technology trends can have,depending on the overall scenario of the automotive world we anticipate.These and further results from the Deloitte AVC 2025 Industry Model(summarized in chapter V)shed light on substantial,in some cases even burning,needs for change.This study therefore concludes(in chapters VI and VII)with a discussion of im-plications and recommendations for three spheres of the automotive ecosystem:Political actors and lobby groups when it comes to future industry and employment structures.OEM executives responsible for purchasing,research&development as well as manufacturing.And most im-portantly:Decisionmakers at automotive suppliers facing questions around strate-gically reassessing product portfolios and potentially restructuring operations.10Joint venture by Valeo and Siemens dedicated to high voltage powertrains starts Baidu forges alliances with German auto suppliers Financial TimesZF:Electric cars could destroy over 100,000 jobsHandelsblattThe Deloitte AVC 2025 Industry Model sheds light on the substantial,in some cases burning,need for change at automotive suppliersFor automakers and suppliers,Silicon Valley is as much a shift in mindset as a locationForbesSupplier Brose sees the future of electric cars in ChinaSddeutsche ZeitungThe Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 202511Continental:Supplier sees no future for diesel and gasolineSpiegel OnlineAI:30,000,000,000,000 computational processes in one secondFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungBad banks supposed to save German automotive supplier business Die WeltMusks electric car vision doubted by major parts suppliersBloomberg TechnologyContinental buys sensor technology for self-driving carsWSJHella and ZF form strategic partnershipAutomobilwocheFig.2 Signposts to the automotive futureBosch invents new electric car battery to double mileageThe TelegraphContinental partners with BMW and Intelmanager magazin12 Four plausible scenarios for the automotive value chain and their implications for the supplier industry Scenario-based thinking can support decision-making under circumstances of high uncertainty.We created four plausible scenarios for automotive suppliers as part of the automotive value chain in 2025.The Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 2025 1314High-influence drivers for the automo-tive value chain We analyzed a wide variety of drivers from the areas of social change,technological advancement,economic shifts,environ-mental trends,and political development.These 60+drivers were in turn assessed for their degree of uncertainty and their impact on the future automotive value chain,focusing on the upstream links of the value chain such as R&D,procure-ment,and manufacturing,and based on extensive research as well as validation interviews and workshops with experts in the respective driver topics.Grouping the drivers according to their impact(on the y-axis)and degree of uncertainty(on the x-axis)highlights the zone of highest interest for scenario building:Distinct and meaningful scenarios always unfold from drivers where high impact and high uncer-tainty coincide(figure 3).Finally,applying the Deloitte Center for the Long Views proven methods helped formulate four quintessential scenarios:In our previous piece The Future of the Automotive Value Chain 2025 and beyond we laid out four quintessential scenarios to describe the future of the automotive industry.Coming from this base,the core assumptions underlying the scenarios were adopted and transferred to the supplier landscape.But before we get to that,a brief recap of the overall 2025 value chain scenarios.Distinct and meaningful scenarios unfold from drivers where high impact and high uncertainty coincideThe Future of the Automotive Value Chain|Supplier industry outlook 202515 igh ighDegree of UncertaintyLowLowMediumDegree of ImpactMediumiteal CarTru in le of lierCalitof Careminant rtrain Terenh of Freem of Trata oral iAvailalitof tteriellutantree oioniTranort fraruureCorrate ValuationCo of CatalConmer rCo eure on lierur of Automotnovationanufaurinoemolitne lTelemmunition inaine aloeAlternative rtrainComtition for Talentvironmental Conrn Articial tellinr CharnConneee of Cartit Tenolo intintae CarAutonomouivinrt Control aroteion ofrnal fo Aive Carfee Articial/Organic Comnenter ora tioner oraVehie ruurerinn of Cer ritanra of oionr of lierleChannelAutonomouoion trForm of nerita netitionfraruure enntonlitrviareholr terenv anFinanntionoh in Aan rtrtan of terial althr l arinnitionfetAreneFuture annof ivin ee of Cuomitionvironmental lationlluter inene of intereFig.3 60+drivers that will shape the future automotive value chain clustered by impact on the upstream value chain and uncertainty