深度报告-20230107-国金证券-美格智能-002881.SZ-智能模组新锐_车载+FWA+泛IoT引领成长_20页_2mb.pdf

-1-28.66 41.00()()2.40 A()1.61()68.68()47.00/20.04 300 3981 11368 SA C S1130520020003 luolu+FWA+IoT()2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()1,121 1,969 2,643 3,742 5,343 20.15%75.68%34.23%41.59%42.77%()27 118 168 270 432 12.21%330.54%42.62%60.32%60.07%()0.149 0.640 0.703 1.127 1.804 0.37-1.08 0.41 0.57 1.08 ROE()()4.72%17.14%20.96%27.96%35.28%P/E 133.29 67.05 38.02 23.71 14.81 P/B 6.29 11.49 7.97 6.63 5.23 2019 4/5G FWA IoT 21 18.2 73%+21 8.6%85%5G know-how+Counterpoint 22Q2 5.6%23 3 21 6 5G+AIoT 5.7+FWA+IoT 5G DiLink4.0 5.0 5G FWA Statista 27 FWA 1.16 FWA IoT+FWA IoT 22-24 1.68/2.70/4.32 23 0.6 PEG 97 41/010020030040050020.0425.3330.6235.9141.246.49220107220407220707221007人民币(元)成交金额(百万元)成交金额 美格智能 沪深300 2023 年 01 月 07 日 通信组 美格智能(002881.SZ)买入（首次评级）-2-5G.4 1.1.4 1.2.5 1.3.7.9 2.1 5G LPWAN.9 2.2.10+FWA+IoT.11 3.1 5G.11 3.2 5G FWA.13 3.3+IoT.14.15 4.1.15 4.2.16.17 1.4 2.5 3 2013-2022.5 4 2013-2022.5 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.6 9.7 10.7 11.7 12 ASP/.8 13.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 17.8 18 5G+AIoT.9 19.9-3-20.10 21 SoC.10 22.11 23.11 24.11 25 Vs.12 26.12 27 2022().12 28.12 29.12 30 FWA.13 31 95%.13 32 5G FWA.13 33 5G CPE.14 34.14 35 POS.15 36 POS.15 37.15 38.16 39 PEG.17-4-5G 1.1 2007 2017 2019 4G/5G 1 wind IoT IoT FWA 0.2T 27T ADASDMS FWA FWA CPE ODU 4G/5G BOX 4G/5G MiFi IoT-5-2 5G SDX55/X62 V510/V516 4G 8910DM 5G SoC QCM5430 Android 11 800 QCS8250 AI 15 Tops 4G POS 5G CPE AR/VR ADAS/DMS POS VR Camera 1.2 5G 17-21 32.3%22 IoT FWA 2022 18.00 36.27%1.22 53.95%3 2013-2022 4 2013-2022 IPO NB-IoT/eMTC Android 2019 2022 2.7 24%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0510152025 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%00.20.40.60.811.21.4 yoy-6-5 6 20 2022 17.62%1.76PP 6.76%0.75pp 7 8 wind wind 2018 22/4.92/4.97/3.29 14 024681012141618202013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0246810121416182014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3Q22 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3Q22-7-9 wind 1.3 1H22 0.77 6.8%2021 806 85%10 11 TOP3 2020 690 5G AI ASP+16-21/118%/133%Counterpoint 4Q21 6.6%0123456782014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-8-12 ASP/13 counterpoint 14 15 16 17 wind wind 5G+AIoT 22 3 21 12 5534 7183 6 5G+AIoT 0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q4 Telit Thales WNC Sierra WirelessLG 020406080100120 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021CAGR 118%CAGR 61%CAGR 64%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021CAGR 32%CAGR 66%CAGR 133%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3Q22-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1-3Q22-9-5.7 0.7 18 5G+AIoT 5G+AIoT 44,589.20 7,368.20 5G ODU 5G 15,000.00-66,957.40-2.1 5G LPWAN GNSS GPS 2/3/4/5G NB-IoT eMTC SigFox/LoRa NB-IoT/eMTC/SigFox/LoRa LPWA 19 Ericsson 5G 4/5G LTE Cat/NB-IoT LPWAN 2027 55 4G/5G 22 NB-IoT/Cat-M 28-10-20 2022 2.2+AP+Modem AP+Modem Android HarmonyOS CPU GPU SoC NFC 21 SoC 2020 SRM900 5G 2021 SRM930 5G 6 490 AI 3D 360 AI 14TOPS SRM900 5 01000200030004000500060002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E4/5G LPWAN NB-IoT/Cat-M 2/3G-11-22+FWA+IoT 3.1 5G V2X IDC 21/1370 5830 24 2180/7620 71%23 24 IDC IDC T-Box、存储芯片 和射频芯片等。智能模组集成 SoC 和基带芯片，自带操 作系 统和 算力，兼 具智 能座 舱中 娱乐、导 航等 多种 功能，模 块化 产品 集成度高，缩 短下 游车 企开 发周 期，有望 成为 智能 座舱 核心 产品，带 来模 组产 品价值量提升。0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01020304050607080902020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E yoy0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0510152025302021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy-12-25 Vs 26 SoC 2/3/4/5G 2/3/4/5G CPU/GPU T-Box 4G 500-600 4G-V2X/5G/5G-V2X 1000-2000 T-Box 5G V2X GNSS WiFi 2000+5G 1000+/DiLink4.0 5.0 22 186.85,152.5%5G DiLink4.0 DiLink5.0 DiLink 4.0 2021 8 05 DiLink5.0 D9 27 2022()28 21 22 Dilink4.0 11.77 27.4-5.1 5.2 15 20.2 47.8 05-6.2 Dilink5.0 D9-0.98/部分 新能 源车 厂和 部分传统整车，经销和直销方式并重 2020 Sierra Wireless 锐凌无线 LG、大众集团、吉利、比亚迪等“”“”ADAS 29 2021/yoy 2021/yoy 5G 112.6/84%3.6/89%+“”2021.2 SG500Q-CN+41.1/50%4.0/42%+POS PC 2021.2 SC168 LG 19.7/76%1.2/331%2020 5G+0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0.05.010.015.020.025.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12-13-3.2 5G FWA 5G FWA FWA/FWA FWA 40%FWA FWA 3/4G 5G 5G FWA 3GPP FWA FWA 30 FWA Samsung 5G FWA 2022 11 FTTH/O 10.19 95.7%5G FWA Ericsson 2022 4 77%238 FWA 75 5G FWA 60%5G FWA Statista 21 FWA 8774 5G FWA 3%27 FWA 1.16 5G 48%21-27 5G FWA 86%31 95%32 5G FWA Statista FWA 5G CPE GSA 21 20 2021 CPE 2270 25%2021 5G CPE 360 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001201402020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E4G 5G 5G-14-162%T-Mobile 3Q22 FWA 57.8 200 2025 700-800 FWA 2022 760 114%33 5G CPE 4G 5G 2020 28.8 1.4 30.2 2021 19.1 3.6 22.7 yoy-34%162%-25%2022E 21.8 7.6 29.5 yoy 14%114%30%GSA 2014 CPE FWA 20 OPPO CPE 2019 X55 X62 X65 5G FWA 2021 5G FWA 3.3+IoT AI POS 5G PDA 22-26E 24%Frost&Sulliva 26 270.61 22-26 24%2021 46 50 164 1429 34 Frost&Sullivan POS 17-21 60%POS NFC Statista/POS 17 0.2/0.33 2021 1.33/2.48 POS 2017 10.3%2021 39.5%17 4.1%21 19.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy-15-POS 98 185 21 3894 08-21 26.44%POS 35 POS 36 POS Statista wind 4.1 22-24 26.4 37.4 53.4 34.2%41.6%42.8%22 22-24 18.2%19.1%19.9%21 18.19 73%IoT FWA 6:3:1 21 1277 20 749 70.5%5G 20 140.42/21 142.5/22-24 1597 2092 2753 5G ASP 154/168/184/1 IoT 22 PDA ASP 22-24 11.8/14.3/16.9 8.0%/21.5%/18.2%2 FWA 22-24 FWA 7.7/11.4/16.7 48.9%/47.7%/46.6%3 DiLink4.0 5.0 D9 5G 5G tier1 22-24 5.1/9.6/17.2 144.8%/86.1%/80.2%37 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 932.8 1120.8 1969.1 2643.0 3742.3 5342.7 yoy 0.0%20.2%75.7%34.2%41.6%42.8%795.6 1051.6 1819.2 2463.6 3527.0 5084.4 0%10%20%30%40%50%0123456 050010001500200025003000350040004500 POS-16-yoy 0.0%32.2%73.0%35.4%43.2%44.2%IoT 1091.5 1179.1 1432.4 1692.6 yoy 8.0%21.5%18.2%FWA 517.9 770.9 1138.8 1669.2 yoy 48.9%47.7%46.6%209.8 513.6 955.8 1722.6 yoy 144.8%86.1%80.2%137.3 69.3 149.9 179.4 215.3 258.3 yoy-49.5%116.4%19.7%20.0%20.0%wind 22 22-24 18.6%/19.5%/20.3%18.2%/19.1%/19.9%38 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 21.31%18.87%18.2%19.1%19.9%7.16 13.11 17.98 25.47 36.35 68.1%72.1%73.0%72.2%71.5%0.39 0.51 0.64 0.85 1.12 3.7%2.8%2.6%2.4%2.2%0.47 0.89 1.23 1.80 2.64 4.5%4.9%5.0%5.1%5.2%0.09 0.15 0.20 0.28 0.41 0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%0.8%22.8%19.4%18.6%19.5%20.3%4.1%12.0%12.0%12.5%13.0%22-24 1.8%/1.9%/1.9%22-24 2.1%/2.0%/1.9%22-24 7.2%/7.1%/7.0%22-24 11.1%/11.0%/10.8%22-24 1.68/2.70/4.32 42.62%/60.32%/60.07%EPS 0.70/1.13/1.80 4.2 2023 0.6 PEG PE 36 97 41/-17-39 PEG 23 PE PEG 20A 21A 22E 23E 24E 20A 21A 22E 23E 24E 603236.SH 18.02 27.7%89.4%96.4%60.4%42.7%0.65 0.20 0.19 0.30 0.42 300638.SZ 21.39 66.8%41.5%11.0%29.4%32.5%0.32 0.52 1.94 0.73 0.66 300590.SZ 15.38-44.3%71.9%46.8%33.7%34.1%-0.21 0.33 0.46 0.45 18.27 0.49 0.31 0.82 0.49 0.51 18.02 0.49 0.21 0.33 0.46 0.45 002881.SZ 25.43 12.2%330.5%42.6%60.3%60.1%2.08 0.08 0.60 0.42 0.42 wind 2023 1 6 2019-2021 0.23/0.31/0.38 37.08%2022 9 103.19 1H22 24%-18-2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 933 1,121 1,969 2,643 3,742 5,343 156 218 191 246 344 486 20.2%75.7%34.2%41.6%42.8%270 265 357 461 640 914-746-882-1,598-2,163-3,028-4,277 152 216 396 528 739 1,044%80.0%78.7%81.1%81.8%80.9%80.1%118 115 263 322 354 377 187 239 372 480 715 1,066 696 813 1,207 1,556 2,078 2,821%20.0%21.3%18.9%18.2%19.1%19.9%88.7%83.0%80.3%81.6%81.9%83.2%-4-5-5-6-7-10 24 80 135 227 319 411%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%16 21 26 30 36 44-21-28-35-48-71-102%2.1%2.1%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.3%2.3%2.5%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.9%28 34 50 67 83 97-30-32-46-56-75-102 89 166 296 351 458 571%3.2%2.9%2.3%2.1%2.0%1.9%11.3%17.0%19.7%18.4%18.1%16.8%-85-141-169-190-266-374 785 979 1,503 1,907 2,537 3,392%9.1%12.6%8.6%7.2%7.1%7.0%15 20 306 400 563 730 EBIT 47 33 117 181 296 479 157 295 333 528 739 1,044%5.0%2.9%5.9%6.8%7.9%9.0%61 79 135 114 164 238-1-1-19-17-24-33 233 395 774 1,042 1,466 2,013%0.1%0.1%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.6%0 0 0 50 100 150-28-37-46-27-23-21 3 2 37 9 2 2 0 0 40 20 15 10 236 397 811 1,101 1,568 2,165 2 0-3 1 1 1 549 582 689 804 966 1,225%13.2%2.8%n.a 0.3%0.2%0.1%181 185 185 240 240 240 19 17 114 177 284 455 178 201 316 417 579 839 2.0%1.5%5.8%6.7%7.6%8.5%0 0 2 2 2 2 0-1 0 0 0 0 785 979 1,503 1,907 2,537 3,392 19 15 114 177 284 455 2.0%1.3%5.8%6.7%7.6%8.5%6 12 4-9-14-23 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E-29.9%-81.9%-3.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%24 27 118 168 270 432 0.135 0.149 0.640 0.703 1.127 1.804 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.028 3.153 3.731 3.355 4.031 5.114 24 27 118 168 270 432 0.170 0.371-1.081 0.405 0.574 1.082 2.6%2.4%6.0%6.4%7.2%8.1%0.020 0.020 0.140 0.281 0.451 0.722 4.45%4.72%17.14%20.96%27.96%35.28%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 3.12%2.80%7.86%8.83%10.65%12.75%24 27 118 168 270 432 10.79%9.92%11.99%13.66%17.26%21.59%0 0 0 0 0 0 23 20 47 43 43 46-5.76%20.15%75.68%34.23%41.59%42.77%-3-3-33 34 10 24 EBIT-23.24%-29.98%255.22%54.94%64.09%61.69%-13 24-331-148-185-243-47.59%12.21%330.54%42.62%60.32%60.07%31 68-200 97 137 259-12.59%24.72%53.55%26.92%33.01%33.74%-11-3 0-35-41-46 0-68-31-72-77-82 90.2 72.5 51.3 60.0 60.0 60.0 90 36 0 1 1 1 80.6 76.1 69.8 90.0 90.0 90.0 80-35-31-107-117-127 72.4 66.2 50.8 70.0 70.0 70.0 0 39 7 14 0 0 6.3 6.8 4.8 4.1 3.5 3.0-54 5 270 141 213 218-1-13-76-85-133-207/-32.04%-33.99%16.66%25.32%32.91%32.11%-55 31 202 70 80 10 EBIT 58.2 22.9 6.2 10.8 12.4 14.5 56 54-31 60 100 143 30.02%40.55%53.99%57.74%61.83%63.82%-19-2 4 8 21 45 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 1.11 1.16 1.00 1 2 3 4 1.00=1.012.0=2.013.0=3.014.0=6 12 15%6 12 5%15%6 12-5%5%6 12 5%-20-C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 1-1 T3-2402