深度报告-20230109-浙商证券-华锐精密-688059.SH-华锐精密深度报告_硬质合金数控刀片先进制造商_产品升级促业绩增长_29页_2mb.pdf

2023 01 09 硬 质 合金 数 控刀 片 先进 制 造商，产品 升 级 促 业 绩增 长 华 锐精密 深度报告 2017-2021 CAGR 46%2021 477 2021-2030 CAGR 3%:()2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 485 589 866 1210 56%21%47%40%162 177 259 373 73%9%46%44%3.69 4.03 5.89 8.47 44 41 28 19-42%-32%-22%-12%-2%8%22/0122/0222/0322/0422/0522/0622/0722/0822/1022/1122/1223/01 1 2 1.6.2.9.3.14.4.19.5.25.6.27 .1 1.1 1 2 3 12.82%12.27%4.17%2.77%2.49%1.84%1.84%3.76%5.87%58.43%36.25%52.40%23.08%5.61%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%050001000015000200002500030000350002017 2018 2019 2020 2021车削刀片（万元，左轴）铣削刀片（万元，左轴）钻削刀片（万元，左轴）车削刀片YOY（右轴）铣削刀片YOY（右轴）钻削刀片YOY（右轴）67.3%29.8%2.6%0.4%1.2 2017-2021 CAGR 46%+2021 4 5 6 7 59%21%21%56%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000020000300004000050000600002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY63%26%30%72%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02000400060008000100001200014000160002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY49.81 49.45 50.46 50.90 50.30 23.32 25.35 27.73 28.51 33.44 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 9 1.3“”1 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 3 0.00.40.81.21.62.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 93%88%98%93%103%80%85%90%95%100%105%02000400060008000100002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2 2.1 10 11 12 13 2020 28%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050607080901002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0510152025302016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 87%86%82%83%83%86%79%80%81%82%83%84%85%86%87%88%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002017 2018 2019 2020 20212022 年1-5 月日 本机 床 产量（台，左 轴）日 本数控 机床产 量（左 轴，台）数 控化率（右轴）14 15 2.2 2000 2016-2022 CARG 3%16 17 2.2.1 2022 1715 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020/,21%,18%,15%,7%,7%,6%,25%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3003103203303403503603703803904002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022E YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006002005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 YOY 2 62-66HRC 86-93HRA(688308)-PCD 800 2500-5000m/min(430497)(430740)CBN 1400 18 19 63%26%2%3%4%2%53%21%8%8%6%3%20 2.3 3 310 31 41%13%205 7-50 157 17 35%9%102 8.5-191 6 24%5%-6.6-1977 12.5 3-33.09 35%5%-8 48%5%-5.09 50%30%2021 15%-2.84 53%17%PCD/PCBN-4.55 46%22%2011-4.83 50%33%99%39%40%40%44%47%51%51%50%46%45%9%9%10%9%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015年 2016年 2017年 2018 年 2019年硬质合金刀具 高速钢刀具 其他 21 22 23 24 13.30%8.79%6.71%4.41%0.54%66.25%7.4%1.7%4.1%2.0%1.4%1.6%0.8%3.2%0.8%0.9%0.5%0.5%0.5%74.8%20%24%28%32%36%40%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 6.94%1.64%1.07%0.60%0.95%1.01%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%株洲钻石 厦门金鹭 恒锋工具 沃尔德 欧科亿 华锐精密2020 2021 3 3.1 91%25 1 26 34.74%29.68%26.39%2.98%2.31%1.87%1.44%0.57%0.02%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05001000150020002500300035002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E YOY 2 27 28 29 汽车供应量优势产业 中国 车身内外 饰件、冲压零 部件、电池、电机、电气设 备等 美国 芯片、计 算平台、计算 机存储、电 喷系统、精密件 等 德国 精密件、发动机 与控制 系统、电喷 系统、汽 车主被 动安全、高端 变速箱、工业 设备等 法国 精密件、发动机 与控制 系统、电喷 系统、汽 车主被 动安全、高端 变速箱 等 日本 液晶装置、光学 仪器、电子电 器、电池、总 成技术、集成电路 韩国 液晶装置、光学 仪器、电子电 器、电池、总 成技术、集成电路 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002021 299.42319.10351.01306.35324.45376.44287.62-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003504002016 2018 2020 2022.1-11 yoy 3 30 2021 694 12%2018-2021 CARG 8%31 32 1000015000200002500030000350002018-022018-042018-062018-082018-102018-122019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-10:33.50%21.80%10.60%8.80%9.20%16.00%553.68590.14620.066940%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 33 3.2 34 82%90%89%88%89%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2017 2018 2019 35 36 37 3758832201000200030004000500060007000800090002021 2041 50 50 50 50 5030200102030405060 BOCOM Aviation Ireland 31953728457052956172735587360%5%10%15%20%25%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 4 4.1 38 39 40(%)0.10 0.25 0.80(KA/m)0.20 0.75 2.50 4(m/m in)(m m/z)(m m)200 0.4 0.3 100min(mm)XM 0.275 FM 0.228 41 42(m)5 15(Ra)0.05 0.4 43 44(%)0.25(E)25 10.00 5 500 2-5m TiN TiCN TiA1N A12o3 A1CrN MoS2 WC/C 1 2 3 4 1000 5-20m TiN TiC TiCN A12o3 ZrO2 1 2-”45 6 2 021 7958.6 2020 2161.27 6/9.86 3.10 2.89 4.75 3 4.2 46 1 7 44,986.31 75%3000 500 200 5,000 8%10,000 17%-59,986.31 100%-2 8 19,857.82 16,000.00 2 50/15,277.49 12,000.00 2 140 12,000.00 12,000.00-47,135.31 40,000.00-47 48 5 5.1 1 2 3 9 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E+132 211 255 309 481 581 738 989 YOY 59%21%21%56%21%27%34%67 107 126 151 237 290 364 488 50%50%51%51%51%50%51%51%-66 106 YOY-60%-33 53 YOY-100%-50%50%-48 96 YOY-100%-24 48 YOY-100%-50%50%0.8 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.7 3.1 5.0 6.5 YOY-32%216%26%-21%80%60%30%0.6 0.3 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.2 3.5 4.6 YOY 0%-47%319%14%59%-10%60%30%26%42%23%30%-40%30%30%30%0.9 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.3 4.7 8.4 12.6 YOY 110%-7%-44%134%100%80%50%0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 YOY 11%520%-79%1038%-21%80%50%90%95%65%87%37%75%75%75%134 214 259 312 485 589 866 1,210 YO Y 59%21%21%56%21%47%40%67 107 128 153 241 294 427 597 YO Y 59%20%19%58%22%45%40%50%50%51%51%50%50%51%51%5.2 10 EPS PE RO E 2 0 2 1 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 688308 92 2.68 3.62 4.64 2.38 3.21 4.12 34 25 20 92 000657 175 6.15 8.62 10.90 0.57 0.80 1.01 28 20 16 175 688257 36 1.53 2.13 2.80 1.64 2.30 3.01 23 17 13 36 688028 36 0.76 1.56 2.39 0.69 1.42 2.18 48 23 15 36 34 21 16 11%688059 72 1.77 2.59 3.73 4.00 5.85 8.31 41 28 19 25%6 1 2 3 Table_ThreeForcast 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()