深度报告-20230110-东方证券-博威合金-601137.SH-博威合金首次覆盖_高端铜合金长坡厚雪_行业先锋厚积薄发_40页_1mb.pdf

601137.SH|+1 2 3 2018 2019+2026 277-448 21-26CAGR 30%2026 131-211 277-448 2021-2026CAGR 27%-39%30%-43%1-2 2022-2024 0.70 1.06 1.35 23 21X 22.26 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()7,589 10,038 14,189 18,021 21,930(%)-0.0%32.3%41.4%27.0%21.7%()469 301 626 958 1,250(%)1.3%-35.8%107.9%53.1%30.6%()429 310 556 836 1,068(%)-2.5%-27.7%79.3%50.3%27.7%0.54 0.39 0.70 1.06 1.35(%)15.7%12.3%13.7%15.1%15.7%(%)5.7%3.1%3.9%4.6%4.9%(%)9.6%5.9%9.8%13.2%15.1%31.1 43.0 24.0 15.9 12.5 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8.2023 01 09 16.87 22.26 52/24.71/9.26/A 79,004/74,065 A 13,328/2023 01 10 1 1 3 12 13.92 13.75 17.15-24.18 10.27 13.38 11.68-7.4 300 3.65 0.37 5.47-16.78 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 2.5 1.1.5 1.2 29.4%.6 1.3.6“+”.13 2.1.13 2.2.17 2.3“+”.21 26 200.25 3.1 2026 277-448 21-26CAGR 30%.25 3.2.28.30 4.1.30 4.2.32 4.3 2023 2GW.34.35.35.36.37 3 1.5 2.6 3.6 4 22H1 4.52%.8 5 23.54%.8 6 21.8 7 22H1 70.24%.8 8 22H1 21.9 9 21.9 10.9 11.10 12 100%.10 13 2021 90%.10 14/.10 15:1#:/22.11 16/22.11 17 LME/.11 18 2017-2021.12 19.12 20.13 21.14 22 19010 r/t.16 23(GPa).16 24 1-2.17 25%.17 26.17 27.18 28.19 29 Press-Fit.20 30 Press-Fit.20 31 60.21 32 EValloy.21 33.22 34.22 4 35.23 36.23 37.23 38.25 39 Model3 HC Stak 25.25 40.26 41.27 42 2017-2021 CAGR 5.1%.28 43 2021 15.42%.28 44 2017-2022H1.30 45 2017-2022H1 MW.30 46 2018.30 47 2015-2016.31 48 2021.31 49 2011-2021 2022-2030 GW.32 50 2011-2021 2022-2030 GW.32 51 28%.33 52 22 11/W.33 53 22 11/W.33 54/W.34 1.7 2 2023 27.12 3.15 4 2018.24 5.26 6 2019-2026.27 7 2019-2026.28 8 2021.29 9.32 10 2023 1GW.34 11.36 5 1.1 1993 1 30 1993 2009 2011 2015 2016 2019 100%2021 2020 Ontario Limited100%39 2021 1 Boway Deutschland Gmbh 2022 6 2 1.2 29.4%29.4%29.41%2022H1 41 3 Wind 1.3 60 2021 7 27.12%73.47%63.46%6 100 11.53%37.31%46.36%2013(Mono)/PERC 1 60 5G 100 HRB 85 88%IACS 5G 100 P 8 1 22H1 70.24%22H1 33.66%70.24%22H1 4.52%9.76%2022H1 2020 17.73%2022H1 23.54%201 185%338.64%4 22H1 4.52%5 23.54%20 21 20 13.19%9.71%MES SCADA 10.53%12.58%21 16%40%18%46.92%152.66%6 21 7 22H1 70.24%8.01 8.82 3.78 2.50 2.91 1.45 2.75 3.50 2.08 2.25 2.86 1.52 0612182020 2021 2022H1 51.64%48.76%42.84%16.12%16.07%16.44%17.73%19.34%23.54%14.51%15.83%17.18%0%10%20%30%40%50%2020 2021 2022H1 9 Wind Wind 2 70%22H1 23.2%2017-2022H1 73.26%74.73%77.43%80.74%92.2%76.8%2021 22H1 20 8 22H1 21 2017-2021 12.74%14.11%16.17%16.04%12.56%12%-15%2017-2021 12.59%12.96%14.97%14.80%12.76%21 18%5.61%-4.61%2020 18.69%2021 16%2020 2.93 PCT 9 21 10 57.5860.6575.92 75.89100.3866.4635.715.334.03-0.0432.2733.66(5)05101520253035400204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1(%)3.063.414.404.293.102.7766.6511.62 10.97-2.54-27.6670.24(40)(20)0204060800.02.04.06.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1(%)73.26%74.73%77.43%80.74%92.20%76.80%26.74%25.27%22.57%19.26%7.80%23.20%0%50%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 10 2020 14.08%6.39%2020 9.64%2020 0.4%2020 9.11%2021 2020 2020 6.39%2021 1.36%11 12 100%2021 3.48PCT 2021 90%2017-2021 90.73%86.4%85.68%85.44%90.1%LME 6166 6523 6000 6181 9317/13 2021 90%14/13.82%14.19%15.88%17.06%12.28%12.13%0%10%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-10%0%10%20%2020 2021 11 2021 22 22 15:1#:/22 16/22 Wind Wind LME LME LME 17 LME/Wind LME/90.10%9.90%91%86%86%85%90%6,166 6,523 6,000 6,181 9,317 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00085%90%95%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:LME:37000770002019-1-10 2020-1-10 2021-1-10 2022-1-10010002000300040005000500015000250003500045000550002019-1 2020-1 2021-1 2022-1:LME:LME:LME 6,166 6,523 6,000 6,181 9,317 12.74%14.11%16.17%16.04%12.56%10%14%18%5800660074008200900098002017 2018 2019 2020 2021:LME:12 3 2017-2021 100.10%118.10%99.51%98.93%98.49%2017-2021 11.37 11.54 14.23 15.67 18.36 18 2017-2021 19 2023 27 2022 H1 25 2022H1 11 2019 8 31800 22 10.6 3 800 2022H1 3.53 2024 5.58 2 2024 6 2022H1 7 2020 5 2020 5 2025 3 10 2022H1 3.55 Bedra 2400 2800 6700 2 2023 27 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 148,200 164,100 197,300 250,800 270,800 291,300 301,300 80,000 88,000 96,800 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 22,600 25,000 30,000 35,300 45,300 55,800 55,800 22,000 27,500 35,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 23,600 23,600 35,500 35,500 35,500 35,500 35,500 31800 31000 800 100.10%99.13%99.51%98.93%98.49%98.0%98.5%99.0%99.5%100.0%100.5%09182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 13+1 2 3 2.1 2.1.1 20 1 2 3 4 14 21 K32 K14 K81 K65 0.15%15%IACS K81 2%K65 2 21(%IACS)=(MS/m)/58.0 MPa K75 K58 boway18160 19010 19005 70250 1 R580 K75 580-640MPa 550MPa boway19010 580 655MPa 520 15 2 K75 83 IACS%boway18160 88 IACS%K58 41 IACS%boway19010 19005 70250 57 47 45 IACS%3 R580 K75 HV 160-200 boway19010 HV 180-220 R400-500 90 R/T 19010 K75 19005 K75 138GPa K58 131GPa 127-135GPa 3 GPa IACS%1/k MPa MPa HV K75 138 83 18 R460 460-560 400(140-170)R530 530-610 460(150-190)R550 550-630 520(150-190)R580 580-640 550(160-200)K58 131 41 17.6 R870 870-990 850(240-300)R920 920-1080 900(260-320)18160 135 88 18.6 R480 480-570 450 150-190 R540 540-630 500 160-200 R600 600-690 560 170-200 19010 130 57 16.8 R490(TM04)490-560 410 145-175 R520(TM06)520-590 460 150-180 R580(TM08)580-655 520 180-220 19005 127 47 16.8 R400 400-460 360 120-150 R490 490-550 410 140-170 R520 520-590 440 150-180 R580 580-650 540 170-200 70250 130 45 17.6 R620(TM00)620 740 550 180-220 R655(TM02)655 785 585 190-240 R690(TM03)690 810 655 210-250 R760(TM04)760 850 720 220-270 R800(TM06)800 880 780 250-290 R607(TR02)607 726 550 180-220 16 22 19010 r/t 23(GPa)R400-500 90R/T good way bad way 2.1.2 5-7 1 IATF16949 2 3(APQP(PPAP)1-2 17 24 1-2 2.2 2018-2021 2.44%2.35%2.74%3.08%2017-2021 0.47 0.55 0.66 0.63 0.63 25%26 2.2.1 2.2.1.1 2.442.352.743.080123452018 2019 2020 2021 0.47 0.55 0.66 0.63 0.63 0.00.20.40.60.81.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 18 1 2 3 CRM MES SAP PLM 27 2.2.1.2 PLM+19 28 2.2.2 60 Press-Fit Press-Fit PCB PCB 20 29 Press-Fit 30 Press-Fit 1 EValloy60 600MPa 60%IACS 80%2 EValloy46 3 400V 800V EMC EValloy91/4 800V 800V BearMet350 21 31 60 32 EValloy 2.2.3 2021 11 20 8 2.3+2.3.1+2.3.1.1 KDDI EDM 22 2019 2021 2019 5.24 2021 2.49 33 Wind 2.3.1.2 2019 3 34 5.242.042.4901234562019 2020 2021 23 2022 7 200 5G 5G SAP 35 36 2019 4874/2021 4344/37 Wind=/2.3.2 2021 1 4,874 4,421 4,344 4000450050002019 2020 2021 24 2018 2021 57 1334.6 1334.6 7.51/1.00 4 2018 2018 1252.67 9401.68 2019 81.97 616.96 2020 2021 133.40 1425.82 25 26 200 12 3.1 2026 277-448 21-26CAGR 30%15%/15%800V 38 39 Model3 HC Stak 25(GJB1216)125 H62 HPb59-1 26 QSn4-3 QSn6.5-0.1 C17200 QBe2 C70250 5 sn6.5-0.1 Qsn4-3 QBe2 17200 17300 70250 18150 H62 Hpb59-1 Qsn6.5-0.1 Qsn4-3 QBe2 17200 70250 18150 H62 Hpb59-1 QBe2 17200 17300 H62 Hpb59-1 QBe2 17200 17300 60%SMM 60%40 SMM 1mm 5m 15m 18.40%8.18%5.11%3.60%3.70%4.90%4.90%27 41 3000-5000 8000-10000 2026 1026-1658 484-782 6 2019-2026 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 中国 新能源车销量（万辆）120 132 351 680 875 1080 1285 1490 全球新能源车销量（万辆）221 315 653 1080 1607 2135 2720 3157 新能源乘用车占比 95%95%95%95%95%95%95%95%中国新能源乘用车销量（万辆）114 126 333 646 831 1026 1221 1416 全球新能源乘用车销量（万辆）210 299 620 1026 1527 2028 2584 2999 中国新能源商用车销量（万辆）6 7 18 34 44 54 64 75 全球新能源商用车销量（万辆）11 16 33 54 80 107 136 158 纯电动乘用车单车价值量（保守）（元/辆）4000 4000 4000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 纯电动乘用车单车价值量（乐观）（元/辆）5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 纯电动商用车单车价值量（保守）（元/辆）9000 9000 9000 8000 8000 8000 8000 8000 纯电动商用车单车价值量（乐观）（元/辆）10000 10000 10000 10000 10000 中国纯电动乘用车市场规模（保守）（亿元）46 50 133 194 249 308 366 425 中国纯电动商用车市场规模（保守）（亿元）5 6 16 27 35 43 51 60 中国新能源汽车连接器市场规模（保守）（亿元）51 56 149 221 284 351 418 484 中国纯电动乘用车市场规模（乐观）（亿元）323 416 513 610 708 中国纯电动商用车市场规模（乐观）（亿元）34 44 54 64 75 中国新能源汽车连接器市场规模（乐观）（亿元）357 459 567 675 782 全球纯电动乘用车市场规模（保守）（亿元）84 120 248 308 458 608 775 900 全球纯电动商用车市场规模（保守）（亿元）10 14 29 43 64 85 109 126 全球新能源汽车连接器市场规模（保守）（亿元）94 134 277 351 522 694 884 1026 全球纯电动乘用车市场规模（乐观）（亿元）513 763 1014 1292 1500 全球纯电动商用车市场规模（乐观）（亿元）54 80 107 136 158 全球新能源汽车连接器市场规模（乐观）（亿元）567 844 1121 1428 1658 Bishop&Associate Wind 2019-2021 2020 2021 29.29%24.67%27%28 2026 131-211 277-448 2021-2026 CAGR 27%-39%30%-43%7 2019-2026 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 中国新能源汽车连接器铜材（保守）14 15 40 60 77 95 113 131 中国新能源汽车连接器铜材（乐观）96 124 153 182 211 全球新能源汽车连接器铜材（保守）25 36 75 95 141 187 239 277 全球新能源汽车连接器铜材（乐观）153 228 303 386 448 Bishop&Associate Wind 3.2 Amphenol Molex 2017-2021 340 419 396 321 406 CAGR 5.1%Bishop&Association 2021 55.4%2021 15.4%2020 0.1%Amphenol 11.04%Molex 6.04%2021 120.19 765.61 24.01%42 2017-2021 CAGR 5.1%43 2021 15.42%Bishop&Association 03006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 15.42%11.04%6.04%5.14%4.87%4.07%2.65%2.35%1.95%1.87%44.60%Amphenol MolexLuxshare Precision Aptiv Foxconn(FIT)Yazaki JAE RosenbergerHirose Electric 29 8 2021 2021 2021 2020 1 120.19 96.92 24%2 Amphenol 86.06 67.9 26.7%3 Molex 47.11 40.6 16%4 Luxshare Precision 40.04 31.97 25.2%5 Aptiv 37.98 31.18 21.8%6 Foxconn(FIT)31.76 30.53 4%7 Yazaki 20.63 21.97-6.1%8 JAE 18.35 16.78 9.4%9 Rosenberger 15.18 12.07 25.8%10 Hirose Electric 14.56 12.2 19.3%431.86 362.11 19.3%Bishop&Association 30 4.1 2017-2021 15.18 15.14 16.76 14.46 7.67 2022H1 14.83 219.87%185%338.64%2021 11 44 2017-2022H1 45 2017-2022H1 MW 10 2011 10 19 Solar World 100%46 2018 15.18 15.14 16.76 14.46 7.67 14.83-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%-6 12 182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 693.47 516.31 689.00 570.00 246.00 513.00-25.55%33.45%-17.27%-56.84%-80%-50%-20%10%40%70%100%130%160%190%-100 200 300 400 500 600 7002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 185%219.87%31 2015 27.64%49.79%26.71%165.04%11.45%27.55%2021 18%85.12%47 2015-2016 48 2021 Wind Wind 2022 10 14 10414 24 2013 6%-6%30%50%62%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000020000300004000050000600002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019:39.15%-23.95%23.00%17.48%-85.12%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%00.511.522.533.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 32 9 CPIA 2021 170GW 2022-2025 237 271 296 325GW CAGR 11.17%2022-2025 89 94 99 109GW CAGR 6.85%49 2011-2021 2022-2030 GW 50 2011-2021 2022-2030 GW CPIA CPIA 4.2 InfoLink Solarzoom EVA 65%28%05010015020025030035040020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520272030 020406080100120140 33 51 28%InfoLink Solarzoom InfoLink 2021Q3 2020 2022Q4 2022 2022 7 27 166mm/170 m 6.31/W 182mm/175 m 7.58/W 210mm/175 m 10.01/W 2022 12 28 28.68%34.7%33.07%325W 210mm 5.58%3.81%52 22 11/W 53 22 11/W Wind Wind InfoLink 2021 2022Q3 2021-2022 10-20%2022 500W+7%6%4%10%3%5%43%12%3%2%2%3%65%EVA-20246810122020/1/6 2021/1/6 2022/1/6 166mm/170m 2021 12 165m 182mm/175m 2021 12 165m 210mm/175m 2022 1 160m 0.000.501.001.502.002.502020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7275W 325W 182mm 210mm 34 1.9-1.93 0.245 54/W InfoLink 4.3 2023 2GW 2023 2GW 2021 166 182/210 700MW 1GW 2022 182mm 1GW 6 2023 2GW 10 2023 1GW 1GW 2.31 2.31 35 2022-2024 1)1 22-24 20.02 23.30 26.40 10.74%16.37%13.30%1000 1500 2000GW 306.50%50.00%33.33%2 22 9760.74/21 22 2022 11 25 2022 7770.81/22 1-10 22 7.86%23-24 1.50%1.96%22 18%23-24 1.50%3.00%3 22-24 0.77 0.95 1.00/22.28%23.21%5.68%22 23-24 22-24 0.17 0.19 0.27/MW 2022H1 219.87%338.64%2021 22-24 599.46%14.06%44.28%4 22-24 41.36%27.00%21.69%21.45%21.65%16.22%276.77%50.00%40.00%2)22-24 1.56%1.56%1.56%3.00%2.99%2.83%3.42%3.75%4.09%2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6,058.7 9,073.4 11,019.9 13,406.0 15,580.0 5.4%49.8%21.5%21.7%16.2%16.0%12.6%14.0%16.5%17.0%1,445.6 767.4 2,891.3 4,336.9 6,071.7-13.8%-46.9%276.8%50.0%40.0%36 20.0%5.6%11.5%10.2%11.9%84.4 197.2 278.3 278.3 278.3-49.1%133.6%41.1%0.0%0.0%-80.0%25.4%25.4%25.4%25.4%7,588.7 10,038.0 14,189.4 18,021.2 21,929.9-0.0%32.3%41.4%27.0%21.7%15.7%12.3%13.7%15.1%15.7%22.26 22-24 EPS 0.70 1.06 1.35 1 2 2023 21X 22.26 11 2023/01/09 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 002203 11.89 0.67 0.99 1.32 17.80 12.00 8.99 688102 16.82 0.21 0.35 0.47 81.69 47.72 35.65 600577 4.36 0.21 0.35 0.46 20.76 12.46 9.48 601702 15.78 0.76 0.95 1.15 20.88 16.66 13.69 300855 47.20 0.81 1.11 1.46 58.57 42.66 32.41 603876 46.30 2.87 4.09 4.99 16.11 11.33 9.27 29.50 20.94 16.21 2023 1 9 37+38:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 785 1,229 1,419 1,802 2,193 7,589 10,038 14,189 18,021 21,930 1,094 1,272 1,677 2,163 2,581 6,395 8,806 12,243 15,296 18,487 173 104 215 289 303 32 28 40 51 62 1,989 3,329 4,628 5,783 6,989 133 132 221 280 341 302 385 414 442 467 473 614 910 1,215 1,518 4,342 6,319 8,353 10,478 12,533 103 131 179 253 300 0 0(30)0 0 27 61 8 7 8 2,658 2,939 4,104 5,113 5,860(1)0 0 0 0 1,446 2,016 2,087 1,982 1,704(0)1 0 0 0 289 281 258 234 211 45 33 36 38 36 367 270 115 110 106 469 301 626 958 1,250 4,760 5,506 6,533 7,439 7,881 3 41 17 20 26 9,103 11,825 14,886 17,918 20,414 9 4 6 6 5 1,794 2,780 5,124 6,785 7,769 463 338 637 972 1,271 978 1,493 2,075 2,593 3,134 34 28 81 136 203 588 1,132 977 1,159 1,308 429 310 556 836 1,068 3,360 5,405 8,176 10,537 12,211 0 0 0 0 0 284 704 704 704 704 429 310 556 836 1,068 0 0 0 0 0 0.54 0.39 0.70 1.06 1.35 284 297 15 15 15 568 1,001 719 719 719 3,928 6,406 8,895 11,256 12,930 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 790 790 790 790 790-0.0%32.3%41.4%27.0%21.7%2,516 2,619 2,633 2,633 2,633 1.3%-35.8%107.9%53.1%30.6%1,930 2,106 2,568 3,239 4,061-2.5%-27.7%79.3%50.3%27.7%(62)(96)0 0 0 5,175 5,419 5,991 6,662 7,484 15.7%12.3%13.7%15.1%15.7%9,103 11,825 14,886 17,918 20,414 5.7%3.1%3.9%4.6%4.9%ROE 9.6%5.9%9.8%13.2%15.1%ROIC 8.0%4.8%6.7%7.9%8.5%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 429 310 556 836 1,068 43.2%54.2%59.8%62.8%63.3%257 260 255 340 417 27.8%45.3%76.5%88.1%86.3%103 131 179 253 300 1.29 1.17 1.02 0.99 1.03 0(1)0 0 0 0.69 0.55 0.45 0.44 0.45(537)(493)(1,400)(1,063)(976)62(81)39 7 7 8.3 9.5 10.0 9.4 9.2 314 126(371)372 816 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.9(1,299)(1,079)(1,463)(1,215)(858)0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0 0 30(30)0(8)93 2 0 0 0.54 0.39 0.70 1.06 1.35(1,307)(986)(1,430)(1,245)(858)0.40 0.16-0.47 0.47 1.03(398)464(93)12(6)6.55 6.86 7.58 8.43 9.47 1,213 103 14 0 0 196 709 2,070 1,243 439 31.1 43.0 24.0 15.9 12.5 1,011 1,275 1,991 1,256 433 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8(38)(32)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 19.1 22.8 14.9 10.2 8.0(20)383 190 383 391 EV/EBIT 27.6 36.6 19.6 13.1 10.2 39 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer