深度报告-20230108-东方证券-富创精密-688409.SH-半导体设备零部件国内龙头_受益国产替代加速_31页_1mb.pdf

688409.SH|7 2018-2021 2.18 8.29 56%2019-2021 0.40 2.57 153%2021 146 2021 461 A ASMI 42.5 7 5 22-24 0.96 1.62 2.42 DCF 143.35 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()481 843 1,432 2,183 3,111(%)89.9%75.2%69.9%52.4%42.6%()108 136 239 390 581(%)417.4%25.5%75.5%63.6%48.8%()94 126 200 339 505(%)380.4%35.3%58.2%69.5%48.9%0.45 0.61 0.96 1.62 2.42(%)31.6%32.0%32.7%32.8%33.2%(%)19.4%15.0%14.0%15.5%16.2%(%)14.0%12.9%7.0%7.0%9.6%238.3 176.2 111.4 65.7 44.1 24.3 21.3 4.8 4.5 4.1.2023 01 06 106.6 143.35 52/154.47/99/A 20,905/4,452 A 22,285/2023 01 08 1 1 3 12-1.4-21.61-4.22-21.93 300 2.82 0.32 4.63-17.38 021-63325888*8514 S0860514050005 BPT856 S0860522090002 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3.9 1.4.11 2.13 2.1.13 2.2.18 3.21 3.1.21 3.2.24.26.26.27.28 3 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.7 5.7 6.8 7.9 8.10 9 2021.10 10 2019-2021.10 11.11 12.11 13.11 14.11 15.12 16.12 17.13 18.13 19 2020 8-12.14 20.14 21 12.14 22.15 23.15 24.15 25.16 26 2021.16 27.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31 2020.18 32.18 33 2021.19 34 8-12 2021Q1.20 4 35.20 36.21 37 2021.22 38.22 39 2021.22 40.23 41.23 42 2021 12 31.24 43.25 44.25 45.25 46.26 47.27 48.28 5 1 1.1 2008 2011 A 7 1 7 2 7 96/28 6 7 28 PVD CVD ALD 7 CMP 14 3000 2000 3 2019 0.7 2021 1.9 65%7 2021 50.1 2019 2020 2021 3085 3483 6093 2019 0.7 2021 11.4 304%4 1.2 5 17 3.23 700 1 0.3 13 20 0102030405060702019 2020 2021 8 1 LPC ICP 13 21 16 0.2 0.3-90 18 3 2021 225 21%6 23 15 17 17 02 5 24 3 2020 2021 3693 7420 2019 11.4%2021 8.8%9 2021 3.6%7 1.3 A HITACHI High-Tech ASMI A 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0100020003000400050006000700080002019 2020 2021 10 8 数据来源：，东 方 证券研究 所 2019-2021 A 69.0%66.2%56.0%87.4%87.3%86.2%9 2021 10 2019-2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500 A C 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 11 1.4 2018-2021 2.2 8.3 56%2019-2021 0.4 2.6 153%2019 2020 2021 2019 11 12 Wind 2018 2021 1.2 3.5 57%43%A 2018 11%2021 36%2018 0.3 2021 3.3 2018 14%2021 39%13 14 Wind Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%02468102018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01232019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 12 2019 2019 15 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 2020 2019 34.0%19.6%2021 0.6pct 0.4pct 1.1pct 16 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 13 2 2.1 10 ASML 10 200 17 18 ASML 1 2 2000 2020 8 12 10 4.3 10%5%14 19 2020 8-12 22-26 25 12 160 26 12 276 2021 165%20 21 12 Cabot Microelectronics 2020 8 12 10 IC Insights 2020 2021 242 312 2021 16.7%11%10%10%9%9%8%6%3%2%2%1%29%MFC 87.7104.2276.30501001502002503002020 2021 2026E 12 15 2021 13 78 100 22 2020 IC IC Insights 30%2021 1025 2023 1208 2021 1925 27.06%2013 33.7 2021 296 2013-2021 31%2021 30%23 24 SEMI SEMI-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012001400 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 16 25 26 2021 SEMI SEMI SEMI 2021 1025 296 75%4662%50%50%90%90%=1025 50%90%=461=296 50%90%=133 27 28-2021 81%90%93%93%84%93%88%Bloomberg Wind 2021 296.2 58%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%47%53%47%46%62%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%AMAT ASML LAM TEL KLA-17 29 SEMI 2022-2025 8.9%2011-2021 CAGR=8.9%2025 30%2025 56 2021 3 30 SEMI 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01020304050602021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 18 2.2 VLSI 2020 10 75-80 Advanced Energy Ichor Ultra Clean Tech 35.3%63.1%31 2020 1 ZEISS 21.2 2 MKS MFC 14.0 3 Edwards/13.8 4 Advanced Energy 6.1 5 Horiba MFC 4.9 6 VAT/4.3 7 Ichor/3.8 8 Ultra Clean Tech/3.5 9 ASML 3.0 10 EBARA/3.0 75-80 VLSI、真空 网 PVD CVD CMP Compart System 32 1991 MFC 2008/7 2000 AMAT Lam 2001 19 2005 PVD CVD 2013-2012/2008 2004 Empower OEM 2021 10 10%-40%50%33 2021 10%-30%10%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0123456789(20 34 8-12 2021Q1 10%Ferrotec Heraeus 10%Tokai Carbon EPP 10%/5%-10%Alcatel Pfeiffer Edwards Ebara Ulvac Leybold Varin 5%-10%Kyocera Coorstek 1%-5%AE MKS Kyosan Daihen 1%-5%Brooks Yaskawa Kawasaki JEL Rorze Sankyo Robostar RND Kostek MFC 1%-5%Brooks MKS Fujikin CDK/1%Fujikin VAT MKS Swagelok Hamlet-/1%MKS Inficon Compart 1%Dupont-2020 12 Compart 2021 ADT 35 12%Ferrortec Ferrotec Hana 6%Advanced Energy MKS 8%Brooks Automation Rorze ASML/9%Edwards Ebara MKS Compart System 21 1%MKS Horiba Compart System 8%Zeiss Cymer ASML 富创 精密招 股说明 书 3 3.1 20%7/36 7 Ferrortec Brooks Automation Rorze ASML-/-Edwards Ebara MKS Compart System 富创 精密招 股说明 书 200 22 2021 211 21%37 2021 2021 190 14%11.50%9%66 194 20%8%12.50%78 181 8%14 42 12%5 34 12%17.50%10 24 20%12.50%8 20 18%11.50%12.50%9 22 12%5%2%4 7 18%11.50%12.50%3 310 5%15 1025 11.2%4.9%4.4%211 SEMI 38 2021 2021 115 53,041.60 0.7%51 14,398.40 0.4%45 15,509.00 0.5%211 82,949.00 0.6%SEMI A A 19-21 A 69%66%56%39 2021 A 472 56.0%161 19.1%46 5.5%C 28 3.3%20 2.4%2020 20%30%28%23 40-=/2011 2014 02 IC 2022 6 31 7 41 2011.1-2015.12 02 IC 2.35 27 2014.1-2020.6 02 4.22-83 2016.7-2019.6 2.48 10 富创 精密招 股说明 书 7 5 20.5%30.0%27.6%106.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-2020 24 42 2021 12 31 1 2 3 4 5 300mm 6 7 8 9 10 富创 精密招 股说明 书 2022 5 9.5 2021 3.2 2017 2019 2020 2021 90%2018 2021 63%25 43 44 16 10 6 2 45 10 10 6 6 24.7 42.5 2024 1.5 B 2024 1.5 0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001202019 2020 2021理论产能（万小时）实际生产工时（万小时）产能利用率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002019 2020 2021理论产能（千件）实际产件（千件）产能利用率 26 46 2020 2021 11 2026 2.5 5 2021 2022 11 2025 10 20 2021 2024 1 2027 5.1 7.5 2020 2030 7.14 10 24.7 42.5 2022-2024 1)+22-24 14 22 31 2)22-24 32.7%32.8%33.2%3)22-24 1.58%1.50%1.38%7.73%7.02%6.41%22-24 7%8.05%7.75%7.45%2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 196.8 352.1 519.3 714.1 899.7 66.4%78.9%47.5%37.5%26.0%35.4%32.4%34.1%34.1%34.1%116.9 178.3 254.1 338.0 417.4 75.5%52.5%42.5%33.0%23.5%36.0%34.0%34.0%34.0%34.0%27 100.4 161.2 387.0 667.5 1,046.7 70.8%60.7%140.0%72.5%56.8%14.2%22.2%25.4%26.7%28.0%58.9 137.8 251.4 434.4 709.0 955.9%134.0%82.4%72.8%63.2%34.9%33.8%34.5%35.2%35.9%8.2 13.6 20.5 28.6 38.7 100.5%66.3%50.0%40.0%35.0%65.7%95.5%94.5%93.5%92.5%481.2 843.1 1,432.3 2,182.7 3,111.5 89.9%75.2%69.9%52.4%42.6%31.6%32.0%32.7%32.8%33.2%22-24 0.96 1.62 2.42 DCF 143.35 47 T 25.00%Gn(%)3.00%Rf 2.83%0.73 0.79 Rm 9.53%0.00%Ke 8.14%D/(D+E)10.00%rd 4.30%WACC 7.64%28 48 A A 2021 60%PE TTM 110 42.5 143.35 2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%5.64%198.73 225.41 262.19 316.11 402.816.14%172.83 192.37 218.13 253.63 305.686.64%152.59 167.40 186.27 211.14 245.417.14%136.36 147.88 162.18 180.40 204.417.64%123.07 132.22 143.35 157.15 174.758.14%111.99 119.40 128.24 138.98 152.328.64%102.64 108.71 115.87 124.41 134.799.14%94.64 99.69 105.56 112.47 120.729.64%87.72 91.96 96.84 102.52 109.20 WACC(%)29 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 316 347 3,048 2,827 2,760 481 843 1,432 2,183 3,111 132 348 586 893 1,274 329 573 964 1,466 2,079 5 13 14 22 31 3 4 7 11 16 135 256 430 654 928 12 16 23 33 43 19 34 39 45 53 72 139 226 323 431 606 996 4,118 4,441 5,045 11 11 6(7)(5)6 3 3 3 3 11 17 33 22 22 453 767 1,099 1,438 1,764 0 0 0 0 0 74 332 620 683 725(6)(4)5 5 5 73 136 126 116 107 72 56 60 50 50 247 252 255 255 255 108 136 239 390 581 853 1,490 2,103 2,495 2,853 0 0 0 0 0 1,459 2,487 6,221 6,936 7,899 0 0 1 1 1 66 176 176 176 176 108 136 238 390 581 120 375 671 1,020 1,447 15 14 38 51 75 55 87 110 137 168 94 121 200 339 505 241 637 957 1,333 1,790 0(5)0 0 0 60 355 355 355 355 94 126 200 339 505 0 0 0 0 0 0.45 0.61 0.96 1.62 2.42 241 400 219 219 219 301 755 575 575 575 542 1,393 1,531 1,908 2,365 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 46 46 46 46 157 157 209 209 209 89.9%75.2%69.9%52.4%42.6%720 725 4,068 4,068 4,068 417.4%25.5%75.5%63.6%48.8%40 167 367 706 1,211 380.4%35.3%58.2%69.5%48.9%(0)(1)0 0 0 917 1,094 4,690 5,029 5,534 31.6%32.0%32.7%32.8%33.2%1,459 2,487 6,221 6,936 7,899 19.4%15.0%14.0%15.5%16.2%ROE 14.0%12.9%7.0%7.0%9.6%ROIC 13.0%9.8%6.0%6.2%8.6%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 94 121 200 339 505 37.2%56.0%24.6%27.5%29.9%6 248 91 127 166 0.0%17.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%11 11 6(7)(5)2.51 1.56 4.30 3.33 2.82 6 4(5)(5)(5)1.96 1.16 3.85 2.84 2.30 13(77)(100)(169)(213)46(150)(183)0 0 5.0 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.9 176 157 8 286 447 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6(95)(1,324)(701)(519)(525)0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 7 4 0 0 0(223)694 5 5 5 0.45 0.61 0.96 1.62 2.42(311)(627)(696)(514)(520)1.12 1.00 0.04 1.37 2.14 14 298 0 0 0 4.39 5.01 22.21 23.84 26.25 362 5 3,395 0 0 16 167(6)7 5 238.3 176.2 111.4 65.7 44.1 391 471 3,389 7 5 24.3 21.3 4.8 4.5 4.1(0)(0)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 155.4 49.4 58.2 38.2 26.3 256 1 2,702(221)(67)EV/EBIT 162.9 133.2 79.8 50.8 33.9 30 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer