深度报告-20230104-浙商证券-钠离子电池行业深度_空间释放未来可期_26页_2mb.pdf

1 26 2023 01 04 钠 离 子电 池 行业 深 度：空 间释 放 未来 可 期 行 业深度报告+1 20”2+1 2 2025 88GWh 2030 378GWh 48GWh 2023 2023 1 2 3 4 5:()2 26 1+.4.2+.11.3.21.4.25 3 26.4 0.58/Wh.5.7.10 2025 88GWh 2030 378GWh.4 26 1+/1 1.1 1.1.1 20 1970s-1980s 1980s-2000s 2000s-2010s 2010s-2020s 2020s-5 26 20 2 6 26 3 win-win 1.1.2 1 NCM 7 26 2 NaPF6 1.2 1.2.1 8 26 4 5 0500100015002000250030003500400001000002000003000004000005000006000002017-06-01 2018-06-01 2019-06-01 2020-06-01 2021-06-01 2022-06-01 99.5%9 26 6 7 1.2.2 60%8 9,4.6%,45.4%,3.0%,0.1%,12.1%,34.8%10 26 10 2025 3000 2022 7 3 2021 7 2025 3000 2021 8 4815 523 2021 11/2022 3 2022 6 2022 7 2022 010000200003000040000500006000070000Li Na K Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn1723000150006000190 14011006300030 90 68 79 11 26 2+2.1+11 12 13 12 26 Cu-Fn-Mn/30%-40%15 01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002016-01 2016-08 2017-04 2017-11 2018-07 2019-03 2019-10 2020-06 2021-01 2021-09 2022-05():():14 13 26 2022 10.60%30%4 0.58/Wh/Wh%t 2000 17.2 0.34 59%Super P t 90 16.5 0.01 3%LA132 t 90 2.5 0.00 0%0.02mmx500mm t 400 1.6 0.01 1%-t 1000 5.3 0.05 9%Super P t 40 16.5 0.01 1%LA132 t 40 2.5 0.00 0%0.0lmmx500mm t 600 6.7 0.04 7%-m2 1400 2.5 0.04 6%t 1400 5.5 0.08 13%0.58 100%2022/12/27 5 BOM(/GWh)/Wh%/Wh%/Wh%Na-Cu-Fe-Mn-O t 2778 12 0.32 35%8 0.22 43%5.5 0.15 38%t 119 17 0.02 2%17 0.02 4%17 0.02 5%t 119 50 0.06 7%50 0.06 12%50 0.06 15%t 300 2 0.00 1%2 0.00 1%2 0.00 1%t 1222 20 0.24 27%8 0.09 18%4 0.05 12%t 53 17 0.01 1%17 0.01 2%17 0.01 2%t 53 3 0.00 0%3 0.00 0%3 0.00 0%t 300 2 0.00 1%2 0.00 1%2 0.00 1%m2 1167 3 0.03 3%3 0.03 6%3 0.03 7%t 1389 16 0.22 24%5.5 0.08 15%5.5 0.08 19%0.91 0.52 0.41 14 26 2.2+A00+200350Wh/kg 6 2025 Wh/L 2.2.1 15 26 16 17 18 1500110020040060080010001200140016002010 202105000100001500020000250002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 16 26 1 2 7/Wh/kg Wh/kg Wh/kg Wh/kg Wh/L Wh/L Wh/L Wh/L/Wh/Wh/Wh/Wh V V V V-20 0 V 15min 80%ofweek,2.2.2 A00 2021 A00 89.02 27.04%2022 1-11 A00 125 21.77%17 26 19 A00 20 21 A00 54.40%36.88%21.89%22.41%27.04%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021:A00:125-140Wh/kg,42%140-160Wh/kg,58%160Wh/kg,0%A00 250,96%250R 400,4%R400,0%A00 18 26 2.2.3+2022 2021 0.24%22 8 19 26 9 En/kWh 1000 10000 10000 10000 Ce/(/kWh 500800 10001300 12001600 700900 Cp/(/kWh 300500 320420 400500 400500 O&M/%4.6 3.7 5 3.7/37004200 40006000 25003000 40005000 r/%8 8 8 8%7580 8690 8890 8490%70 90 100 100%/a 3.6 1.5 3.6 1.5 n(t)/365 365 365 365 Pc/(/kWh)0.261 0.261 0.261 0.261/0.9501.234 0.7390.873 1.0701.290 0.5120.590-67.8 54.0-40C 20 26 23+2.3 10 2025 88GWh 2030 378GWh 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2030E GWh 0.49 2.76 6.30 11.00 17.51 77.51 4739 5212 5734 6307 6938 11173 10%GWh 34 38 41 45 50 80 0.72KWh 48V15Ah 1%5%10%15%20%40%GWh 0.34 1.88 4.13 6.81 9.99 32.18 GWh 11.18 11.74 12 13 14 17 5%1%5%10%15%20%40%21 26 GWh 0.11 0.59 1.23 1.94 2.72 6.94 352 563 901 1442 2308 9230 60%GWh 4 6 9 15 24 96 1.04KWh(13V80Ah)1%5%10%15%20%40%GWh 0.04 0.29 0.94 2.25 4.80 38.40 A00 GWh 0.21 1.01 3.79 11.25 27.69 110.76 A00 106 169 270 433 692 2769 30%A00 GWh 21 34 54 87 138 554 20KWh 1%3%7%13%20%20%GWh 0.51 1.73 5.86 17.45 42.38 190.03 GWh 25.37 43.11 73.29 126.64 211.89 950.13 70%2%4%8%14%20%20%GWh 1.2 1 5.50 1 5.9 5 3 9.7 0 8 7.5 8 378.30 3 1 2 2021 2 022 4 2 023 3 22 26 4(“”)1.3GWh 2.18 7 2022 12 7 2023 0.5Gwh 2022 10 28 2GWh 2024 2022 12 5 A0 2023 2024 A 5 48GWh 2023 2023 82.7 15.4 23 26 24 3.1 4.2 82.7 11/50 18 4 5000 24 26 2000 3.2 0.2 15.4 50 15 12 15 1000-2000/2023 200MWh 2000/2023 4 2022-50 2022 15 3.3 25 26 13-5/10 DMC-2-2023 3.4 3.5 4 26 26