2020年Q1全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）.pdf

Global economic conditions survey report: Q1, 2020 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, Institute of Management Accountants April 2020 About ACCA ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants, offering business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. ACCA supports its 219,000 members and 527,000 students (including affiliates) in 179 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills required by employers. ACCA works through a network of 110 offices and centres and 7,571 Approved Employers worldwide, and 328 approved learning providers who provide high standards of learning and development. Through its public interest remit, ACCA promotes appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in reputation and influence. ACCA has introduced major innovations to its flagship qualification to ensure its members and future members continue to be the most valued, up to date and sought-after accountancy professionals globally. Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. More information is here: About IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) IMA , named the 2017 and 2018 Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/International Accounting Bulletin, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA (Certified Management Accountant) and CSCA (Certified in Strategy and Competitive Analysis) programs, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 125,000 members in 150 countries and 300 professional and student chapters. Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit: imanet The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. The GECS has been conducted for over 10 years. Its main indices are good lead indicators of economic activity and provide a valuable insight into the views of finance professionals on key variables, such as investment, employment and costs. Fieldwork for the Q1 2020 survey took place between 28 February and 12 March 2020 and attracted 983 responses from ACCA and IMA members, including over 100 CFOS. ACCA and IMA would like to thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey. It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy. Introduction The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is the largest regular economic survey of accountants in the world. 3 The Q1 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) was conducted from 28 February to 12 March inclusive. This period included the spread of the COVID-19 to Europe and the US and saw some of the initial policy responses, mainly from central banks. But the major impact on economic activity from lockdowns and business closures had not yet begun to be felt. Even so, by this time such effects were being felt quite profoundly in the Asia- Pacific region, the source of the outbreak. This geographical split is reflected in some of the key indicators in the Q1 GECS. Global confidence fell to its lowest level on record with big falls in all regions. The global orders index, which tends to be less volatile than the confidence measure, also fell sharply but not to an all-time low. In Asia-Pacific confidence is the lowest among all regions and the orders balance fell by more than anywhere else in Q1. In addition, the regional index of concern about suppliers going out of business jumped to a record high of 22 in Q1 compared with a long run average of 8 (Chart 2). Similarly, the index of concern about customers going out of business increased to 37 having been 27 at the end of 2019. By comparison, the global indices for Q1 are 16 for concern about suppliers and 22 for concern about customers. Confidence fell everywhere and, in most cases, sharply and to the lowest levels since the survey began. The Q1 drop in Asia-Pacific confidence is less than the global average, but confidence here was already relatively weak as a consequence of US-China trade tensions. Hence it took less of a drop to reduce confidence in Asia- Pacific to the lowest among all regions. Western Europe and the Middle East have only a slightly higher confidence level. Indeed, there is relatively little Executive summary The Q1 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) was conducted from 28 February to 12 March inclusive. 4 Chart 1: Confidence falls everywhere Chart 2: Asia-Pacific feels the economic pain first Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Asia Pacific: GECS index of concern about suppliers going out of business Global confidence fell to its lowest level on record with big falls in all regions. In Asia-Pacific confidence is the lowest among all regions and the orders balance fell by more than anywhere else in Q1. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 North America Asia Pacific Middle East Western Europe South Asia Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 GECS confidence indices: major regions Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Chart 3: Confidence collapses almost everywhere 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Western Europe North America Global Asia Pacific South Asia AfricaMiddle East divergence in confidence between regions, which is to be expected given the global nature of the COVID-19 economic shock. The orders balance is a better indicator of real economic activity than sentiment- driven confidence (Chart 4). The falls in orders may be less extreme than for confidence, but nevertheless are across all regions. The regional pattern reflects the geographical spread of COVID-19 at the time of the Q1 survey with the biggest fall in Asia-Pacific and the smallest in Africa. The global economy is heading into recession as private economic activity collapses owing to an effective lockdown in many countries. If these conditions were to persist for three months or longer then falls in output approaching 10% would be entirely possible. (During the global financial crisis of 2008/09, the worst- affected economies suffered around a 6% fall in GDP.) Early data releases, such as US jobless claims and monthly activity surveys in the US, eurozone and UK point to plunging levels of economic output. Emerging market (EM) economies face additional difficulties as a flight to quality among investors triggers capital outflows. In addition, for EMs with a significant amount of debt denominated in US dollars, the rise in the dollar adds to the burden. For oil exporters the collapse in the oil price will exacerbate the economic downturn as well as putting further pressure on government budgets. The global policy response has been huge, if rather uncoordinated. On monetary policy, central banks have slashed interest rates where possible, launched or massively boosted quantitative easing (QE) and extended cheap funding to the banking system. But fiscal policy has to do the heavy lifting by supporting private incomes lost as a result of the crisis. Governments are seeking to do this in a number of ways. Measures introduced have included direct payments to households, paying the wages of workers, boosting benefit payments and delaying or foregoing tax receipts. The intention is to provide a Global economic conditions survey report: Q1, 2020 5 Chart 4: Orders fall in every region, especially Asia Pacific Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) bridge of income so that when economic conditions improve, a recovery can be fairly quickly established. The total size of fiscal packages is very substantial, with those of the US, UK and Germany all worth around 10% of GDP (by end-March). It is a measure of the scale of this crisis that concerns are being expressed that more may yet be needed. There will inevitably be long-term economic consequences, although at this stage much is conjecture. But what is certain is that the public finances in many countries will be in very large deficit this year, probably often exceeding 10% of GDP and greater than reached during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Once economies start to recover and temporary income support measures are removed, these deficits will shrink rapidly. But they will remain substantial and fiscal retrenchment will be necessary at some point. Given the nature of this crisis, it seems likely that this will be achieved to a greater extent through higher taxation than through reduced public spending. Change in GECS confidence between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 Change in GECS orders between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 The falls in orders may be less extreme than for confidence, but nevertheless are across all regions. The regional pattern reflects the geographical spread of COVID-19 at the time of the Q1 survey with the biggest fall in Asia-Pacific and the smallest in Africa. 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Asia Pacific South Asia Global North America Western Europe AfricaMiddle East Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) 6 1. Global and regional analysis At this point, the GECS only begins to paint the picture of the global economic collapse brought on by COVID-19. At this point, the GECS only begins to paint the picture of the global economic collapse brought on by COVID-19. The Q1 survey was conducted from 28 February to 12 March. In normal circumstances, economic conditions change little in the space of just a few weeks. But these are not normal circumstances. So, although global confidence and orders both fell significantly in the Q1 survey (Chart 5), they do not convey the true scale of the global economic contraction that is now in progress. Orders in Q1 are still above their all-time low and the capital expenditure and employment indices are relatively little changed. This pattern is unlikely to be repeated in the Q2 survey. Inflation concerns fell to a record low in the latest survey. The global economy is suffering both a supply shock and a demand shock. But the overwhelming force is one of a savage reduction in demand that will exert downward pressure on prices in the short term. (How can one measure the prices in a basket of goods and services when a large proportion of the usual basket is unavailable?) For now disinflation will persist, helped further by the drop in oil prices. There is relatively little variation in the economic prospects of the major regions: Charts 6 to 12 summarize the regional picture. Asia-Pacific was the first to suffer the economic consequences of COVID-19 and this is reflected in the Q1 GECS. As well as recording the lowest level of confidence across all regions, respondents in Asia-Pacific also reported a dramatic rise in concern about suppliers going out of business (Chart 6). There is also a similar jump in concern that customers will fail. Other regions, such as North America and Western Europe reported very modest increases in these concerns. Chart 5: Global confidence plummets, orders register modest fall -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Chart 6: Asia-Pacific region concerns about suppliers GECS Global indices Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Asia Pacific: GECS index of concern about suppliers going out of business Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Global economic conditions survey report: Q1, 2020 7 GECS regional picture North America COVID-19 was beginning to spread to North America at the time of the GECS survey. But many of the restrictive measures that cause economic contraction were not in place. The longest economic expansion in US history, lasting over 10 years, is coming to an abrupt end. Asia-Pacific The Asia-Pacific region had already suffered weaker confidence last year as US-China trade tensions took their toll. The region was also the first into the COVID-19 crisis. Not surprising confidence in the region is at a record low. The orders index fell the most of any region in Q1. Western Europe Confidence fell sharply in Q1 in Western Europe but other indicators held up, reflecting that few restrictions were in place at the time of the survey. The region, including the UK, will suffer a sharp economic contraction in coming months. Chart 7: North America -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Chart 8: Asia Pacific -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Chart 9: Western Europe -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 8 Middle East Confidence in the Middle East registered a fairly modest fall in Q1, but most of the survey was conducted before the big drop in oil prices in March. The combined effect of COVID-19 and lower oil prices will cause significant economic pain to oil exporting economies. South Asia South Asia, dominated by India and Pakistan did not show a collapse in confidence in early March. Both economies were suffering from weak growth before the pandemic and will quickly fall into economic contraction. Africa The African region experienced by far the smallest drop in confidence of any region. Again, at the time of the survey, there had been relatively few reported COVID-19 cases in the region. Global economic conditions survey report: Q1, 2020 Chart 10: Middle East -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Chart 11: South Asia -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Chart 12: Africa -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016 Q1 2020Q1 2018 9 2. Thematic analysis The global economy is heading into a recession, initially at leas