2020年Q3全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）.pdf

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q3, 2020 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, Institute of Management Accountants September 2020 About ACCA ACCA is the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. Were a thriving global community of 227,000 members and 544,000 future members based in 176 countries that upholds the highest professional and ethical values. We believe that accountancy is a cornerstone profession of society that supports both public and private sectors. Thats why were committed to the development of a strong global accountancy profession and the many benefits that this brings to society and individuals. Since 1904 being a force for public good has been embedded in our purpose. And because were a not-for-profit organisation, we build a sustainable global profession by re-investing our surplus to deliver member value and develop the profession for the next generation. Through our world leading ACCA Qualification, we offer everyone everywhere the opportunity to experience a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. And using our respected research, we lead the profession by answering todays questions and preparing us for tomorrow. Find out more at About IMA (Institute of Management Accountants) IMA, named the 2017 and 2018 Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/ International Accounting Bulletin, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA (Certified Management Accountant) and CSCA (Certified in Strategy and Competitive Analysis) programs, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 125,000 members in 150 countries and 300 professional and student chapters. Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit: imanet Introduction THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY (GECS), IS THE LARGEST REGULAR ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ACCOUNTANTS AROUND THE WORLD. The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. The GECS has been conducted for over 10 years. Its main indices are good lead indicators of economic activity and provide a valuable insight into the views of finance professionals on key variables, such as investment, employment and costs. Fieldwork for the Q3 2020 survey took place between 25 August and 8 September 2020 and attracted 1067 responses from ACCA and IMA members, including over 100 CFOs. The COVID-19 questions gathered 789 responses. ACCA and IMA would like to thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey. It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy. 3 The Q3 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) shows an improvement in optimism and activity after the previous survey which had many key indicators plunging to record lows. Significantly there was a big jump in global confidence, which is now at a three-and-a-half-year high. This provides some optimism that some recovery is in prospect in the second half of the year, notwithstanding the collapse in activity through the first half. In the latest survey there was also a slight reduction in measured concern that customers and suppliers may go out of business. But it is important to recognize that the level of concern in both cases remains at an elevated level, underlining the weak and precarious state of the global economy in the latter part of 2020 (Chart 2). Having fallen the most in Q2, the orders indices in North America and Western Europe recovered by the largest margin in Q3. Lifting of lockdowns in these regions, especially from July onwards has lifted their economies and the orders balance reflects this and points to continued recovery. There is little variation in levels across regions, with South Asia a relatively weak outlier (Chart 3). Confidence improved significantly in virtually all regions in the Q3 survey. This is not so surprising the confidence assessment measures how confidence has changed compared with its level three months ago. Back in June many economies were just emerging from lockdowns and confidence was very fragile. North America recorded a massive jump in confidence in Q3, perhaps Executive summary CHART 1: The global outlook improves from extreme lows CHART 2: Fears that stakeholders may go out of business Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 SIGNIFICANTLY THERE WAS A BIG JUMP IN GLOBAL CONFIDENCE, WHICH IS NOW AT A THREE-AND-A- HALF-YEAR HIGH. THE Q3 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY (GECS) SHOWS AN IMPROVEMENT IN OPTIMISM AND ACTIVITY AFTER THE PREVIOUS SURVEY WHICH HAD MANY KEY INDICATORS PLUNGING TO RECORD LOWS. Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) GECS Global indices Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 GECS: index of concern about customers going out of business GECS: index of concern about suppliers going out of business % % 4 CHART 3: Orders stage a recovery almost everywhere 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Africa Asia Pacific Global North America C more generous government support and guarantees mean that firms in advanced regions such as North America and Western Europe have better access to finance than those in emerging markets (EMs). By the second quarter of this year the global economy is estimated to have been 9.5% smaller than at the end of 2019, an unprecedented collapse in activity. Some countries fared better than others, notably South Korea, the US and Germany. China has done best of all with output above its end-2019 level. Meanwhile, the UK, Spain and India all suffered 20%-plus drops in output. Recovery is now underway as lockdowns have been lifted and the third quarter will show some very strong GDP growth rates. But activity levels will remain well below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, the global recovery is likely to slow towards the end of the year and into 2021. As the Northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter the number of COVID-19 infections will rise; it has already done so in several countries in Europe. Renewed containment measures will restrain economic activity and reduce consumer confidence. In addition, while policy support remains in place it is being reduced in scale in several economies, including the US and UK. The outlook for emerging markets remains especially CHART 4: Confidence improves everywhere Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) challenging. International trade has not fallen as much as feared at the outbreak of the crisis but is still down by almost 20% so far this year. Revenues from overseas visitors and remittances sent by workers overseas are both still significant negative influences on many EM economies. The nature and prolonged duration of the COVID-19 shock means that it is likely to result in permanent changes to the structure and potential growth rates of economies. Higher private sector savings may be one outcome: households and companies limit consumption and investment respectively as they remain cautious in the face of extreme uncertainty. This suggests that the public sector may have to run significant fiscal deficits for some time in order to support overall demand. For now, at least mounting public sector debt can be sustained since interest rates are exceptionally low. Change in GECS orders index between Q2 2020 and Q3 2020 HAVING FALLEN THE MOST IN Q2, THE ORDERS INDICES IN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN EUROPE RECOVERED BY THE LARGEST MARGIN IN Q3. South Asia 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Western Europe South Asia Middle East Africa C both will only pick up when other regions of the global economy do too. WESTERN EUROPE Along with other regions, Western Europe recorded a bounce in confidence in Q3, while the orders balance reported the biggest jump across all regions in the latest survey. This is perhaps not surprising given that the region suffered one of the biggest falls in activity in Q2. UK GDP plunged by 20% in the second quarter for example. Second half growth will still leave the region operating well below pre-crisis levels of activity and the activity indicators in Q3 are consistent with this. A long recovery road lies ahead. CHART 7: North America -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) CHART 8: Asia-Pacific -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) CHART 9: Western Europe -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 % % % 7 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q3, 2020 MIDDLE EAST The Middle East region enjoyed a strong rebound in both confidence and orders in the Q3 survey, having been one of the weakest regions in the previous survey. Oil prices have become stable after extreme volatility caused by excess supply earlier in the year. In addition, economic recovery in China is supporting oil demand. But oil prices at around $40 per barrel are well below the level at which countries in the region base their budgets, creating fiscal pressures. Activity indicators remain weak as COVID-19 social distancing requirements remain and hamper recovery in domestic demand. SOUTH ASIA The orders index fell in Q3, the only region where this occurred. India has become a COVID-19 hotspot with infections and deaths running at very high levels. GDP collapsed by 24% in Q2, the biggest fall in activity among all large economies. In its Interim Economic Outlook for September, the OECD (2020) downgraded Indian GDP growth this year by 6.5 percentage points to a 10.2% fall, with a strong recovery predicted for next year. A bounce in the confidence index in Q3 points to the prospect of economic recovery in the region later this year and into 2021. AFRICA Both confidence and activity indicators increased in the Q3 survey, but orders improved only modestly. The economic outlook remains weak with Nigeria and South Africa set to contract sharply. Commodity exporters are suffering from lower prices and tourist arrivals have vanished. Fiscal policy support to offset the effects of social distancing and lockdowns is severely limited by poor public finances and inadequate health care systems. Falling GDP per capita across the region will increase extreme poverty significantly. CHART 10: Middle East -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 CHART 11: South Asia -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 CHART 12: Africa -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 Confidence index Orders index Capital expenditure index Employment index Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Q3 2012 Q3 2014 Q3 2016 Q3 2020Q3 2018 8 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q3, 2020 GECS COVID-19 Questions As part of this GECS respondents were asked a few questions relating specifically about COVID-19. The regional responses are summarized here. CHART 13: Expectations of economic recovery 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 After Q1 2021 Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) CHART 14: Access to finance CHART 15: Confidence post-crisis TIMING OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY Over the last three months, expectations of substantial economic recovery have shifted decisively towards later in 2021 over the last three months. Over 60% of respondents in Western Europe are now of this view and it is above 50% of those in Asia-Pacific and North America too. South Asia has the highest percentage not expecting recovery until 2021 (Q1 or after). Responses to this question highlight the reality that the economic loss caused by COVID-19 and associated restrictions will persist well into next year. Indeed, the economic effects, especially on consumer activity will last for several years. ACCESS TO FINANCE Access to finance is crucial in the current downturn. There is a clear regional pattern with the strongest access to finance being in the developed markets of North America and Europe, and the weakest in EMs. This has not changed since the June survey the only notable change is the improvement in South Asia. Note that the surveys access to finance question explicitly asked about the availability of government support schemes and these are much more generous in advanced economies than in EMs. CONFIDENCE POST-CRISIS For confidence in improvement once the crisis is over, North America showed a dramatic jump between the June and September surveys, perhaps a reflection of better outcomes for COVID-19 infections. Least positive is Western Europe perhaps also owing to changes in COVID-19 cases but in the opposite direction After improving Middle Eastern confidence all regions now show a positive net balance expressing confidence about their companies post-crisis. The defining issue is when the crisis may be over. When do you expect economic recovery to begin in your economy? % responding for each time period 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 % balance easy minus difficult 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Middle East Asia-Pacific Africa South Asia North America Global Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Net % balance confidence Western Europe Africa Middle East Asia-Pacific Western EuropeNorth AmericaSouth Asia June September Source: ACCA/IMA (2012-20) Africa South Asia Western Europe North AmericaGlobalMiddle East June September % % % 9 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q3, 2020 2. Thematic analysis The global economy flagging into 2021 As expected, the March to June quarter witnessed some record quarterly falls in GDP 9.1% in the US, 11.8% in the euro- zone and 20.4% in the UK, for example. Even Australias three decade long run without a recession came to an end with a 7% slump in GDP. There is a high degree of correlation between the length and severity of lockdowns and the fall in GDP ranging from South Korea (quarterly contraction of 2.7%) to the 20% plunge in the UK. Overall, the world economy contracted by around 6% in the second quarter of the year a record fall and more than four times t