2019年Q1全球经济预测（英文版）.pdf

Not to be distributed without permission. 2019 Euromonitor International 1 introduction Euromonitor International Analytics offers precise answers to vital business questions in an increasingly fast-paced and uncertain world. Our Macro Model provides regularly updated forecasts and “what-if” scenarios for core macroeconomic variables, including gdp, growth and unemployment. Its global scope ensures our macro forecasts and scenarios reflect the economically inter-connected world in which we live. The Global Economic Forecasts report focuses on quarterly macro changes for the worlds key economies and what these mean to our view of the likely, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the global economy. Ultimately, we help businesses stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis. 2019 Euromonitor International 2 Annual global economic growth is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018. This deterioration in our global outlook has primarily been a result of downgrades to the advanced economies, including the US and the Eurozone, but also to some emerging economies such as Mexico and Russia. The real gdp in advanced economies is estimated to grow by 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, a decline from 2.3% growth in 2018. Emerging economies are anticipated to see a steadier real gdp growth of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, which is similar to a pace of 4.6% in 2018. World Real GDP Growth % 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Advanced economies World Emerging markets 4.6 2.3 3.7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2021 2022 4.6 2.0 3.5 Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model Note: Growth rates are based on 58 worlds major economies covered by Euromonitor International Macro Model 2019 Euromonitor International 3 SCENARIO GLOBAL RISK INDEX Global Downturn 63 Emerging Markets Slowdown 39 Global Crisis 34 Eurozone Recession 20 China Hard Landing 20 US-China All-Out Trade War 16 Disorderly No-Deal Brexit 15 Eurozone Crisis 11 Trump Adverse Policies 10 Korean Conflict 9 Global Trade War 9 No-Deal Brexit 7 The world trade growth is likely to weaken in 2019 as a result of a pullback in globalisation and increasing political risks. The recent decline in financial asset prices also suggests a risk of recession in 2019. Major global risks are stemming from remaining trade war uncertainty, tightening financial conditions and risks of a worse-than-expected Chinese economic slowdown. The Eurozone outlook is also clouded by a possibility of a no-deal Brexit and Italian fiscal policy. Lower oil prices and the emergence of populist leaders in Latin America could further weigh on the outlook of emerging economies. Note: Global Risk Index ranks scenarios by the expected gdp impact, calculated as the impact of the scenario multiplied by its probability. Risk ranking changes include revisions in scenario dynamics. For scenario definitions see pages 3233GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 2019 Euromonitor International 4 country highlights EUROZONE UK Negative readings at the end of 2018 have led to downgrades in the Eurozone outlook, with the economy slowing close to long-term trend growth. Real gdp is to grow by 1.7% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020. The UK outlook remains under severe Brexit uncertainty. We have kept our baseline real gdp growth at 1.5% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020. However, the baseline is just one of several possible scenarios. Worsening trade and political uncertainty along with a more transitory impact of tax cuts has led us to reduce the US real gdp growth forecast to 2.4% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. US Slowing global demand and the China-US trade war continue to take a toll on Japans economy, gdp growth declined in q3. We have reduced real gdp growth to 0.6% in 2019 and 0.6% again in 2020. JAPAN 2019 2019 2019 2019 gdp growth gdp growth gdp growth gdp growth 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% Source: Euromonitor International 2020 2020 2020 2020 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 2019 Euromonitor International 5 country highlights BRAZIL RUSSIA Brazils business confidence has jumped on the new presidents reform agenda. While waiting for the governments actions, our real gdp growth forecast is unchanged at 2.2% in 2019, 2.4% in 2020. Russias economic growth will be weighed down by slowing exports, weak domestic demand and decreasing oil prices. We have cut the real gdp growth forecast to 1.31.4% in 20192020. China is facing growing concerns about a domestic demand slowdown and the impact from the US-China trade war. We have for now kept gdp growth forecasts at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020. CHINA Indias economy decelerated slightly in q3 2018, dragged down by private consumption and net exports. We have reduced real gdp growth forecasts to 7.4% in 2019 and 7.5% in 2020. INDIA Source: Euromonitor International 2019 2019 2019 2019 gdp growth gdp growth gdp growth gdp growth 6.1% 2.2% 1.3% 7.4% 2020 2020 2020 2020 5.9% 2.4% 1.4% 7.5%GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 2019 Euromonitor International 6 gdp growth forecasts revisions over last quarter COUNTRY 2017 % 2018 (E) % 2019 (F) % 2020 (F) % 20212025 AVERAGE (F) % 2019 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points 2020 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points Advanced USA 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.6 0.0 -0.3 Canada 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 -0.2 0.0 Japan 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.3 0.0 Eurozone 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.1 0.0 France 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 Germany 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 -0.1 -0.1 Italy 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 Spain 3.1 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 UK 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 Emerging China 6.8 6.6 6.1 5.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 India 6.3 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.0 -0.2 0.0 Brazil 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 Mexico 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.3 Russia 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 -0.2 -0.1GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 2019 Euromonitor International 7 inflation forecasts revisions over last quarter COUNTRY 2017 % 2018 (E) % 2019 (F) % 2020 (F) % 20212025 AVERAGE (F) % 2019 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points 2020 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points Advanced US 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 -0.2 -0.1 Canada 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 -0.3 0.0 Japan 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 Eurozone 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 France 1.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.8 -0.2 -0.1 Germany 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 Italy 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 0.0 -0.1 Spain 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 UK 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 Emerging China 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 -0.2 -0.2 India 3.3 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 -0.3 -0.1 Brazil 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.4 4.2 0.4 0.4 Mexico 6.0 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.4 0.3 0.3 Russia 3.7 2.8 4.6 4.2 4.0 0.0 0.0GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 2019 Euromonitor International 8 interest rate forecast % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 UK Japan 0.0 0.8 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Advanced Economies Interest Rate Forecast % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 US Eurozone 0.0 2.2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 BRIC Countries Interest Rate Forecast % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 India China 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 4.3 6.5 % 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Brazil Russia 6.5 7.5 Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model 2019 Euromonitor International 9 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 major forecast revisions Eurozone More negative news at the end of 2018 has led to further downgrades in the Eurozone outlook. Private sector sentiment has declined to the lowest level in two years, and gdp growth in q4 2018 was just 1.2% year on year. Much of the recent disappointing growth is due to temporary factors such as the Gilets Jaunes protests in France and some sectoral industry shocks in Germany. However overall, the Eurozone economy appears to be slowing down close to its long-term trend growth in 20192020, with rising downside risks. 2019 Euromonitor International 10 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 major forecast revisions Mexico We have downgraded Mexican gdp growth forecasts by 0.30.4 percentage points in 20192020. This reflects worse than expected growth at the end of 2018, rising business uncertainty about the policies of the more populist Lopez-Obrador government, and a worsening global trade environment. Higher risks of currency devaluation, inflation and a tighter monetary policy have also worsened the outlook. 2019 Euromonitor International 11 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 Russia We have downgraded Russian gdp growth forecasts by another 0.10.2 percentage points in 20192020 due the worsening oil price outlook. The price per barrel of Brent oil has declined from USD8085 in SeptemberOctober 2018 to USD6065 in January, and it is expected to remain in that range in 20192020. The worsening outlook for oil prices has further dampened Russias already mediocre growth prospects, with average annual gdp growth in 20192023 forecast at around 1.4%. major forecast revisions 2019 Euromonitor International 12 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 US We have reduced the gdp growth forecast for 2020 by 0.3 percentage points to reflect worsening trade and political uncertainty together with estimating a more transitory impact of the 2018 business tax cuts on investment. While financial markets have likely overreacted negatively in recent months, recession risks have increased for 20192020. major forecast revisions 2019 Euromonitor International 13 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 INDICATOR 2017 % 2018 (E) % 2019 (F) % 2020 (F) % 20212025 AVERAGE (F) % 2019 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points 2020 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points Real gdp growth 2.3 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.6 0.0 -0.3 Inflation 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 -0.2 -0.1 Federal Funds Rate 1.0 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 -0.3 -0.4 faster than trend growth, with consumption rising at around 3% year-on-year recently and the 2018 corporate tax cuts are still providing a modest stimulus to business investment. However, the outlook has become less optimistic, with the economy expected to decelerate in 20192020, and risks of an economic contraction rising. General outlook The US economy ended 2018 with growth approaching 3%. US private sector confidence remains above average, the unemployment rate is close to 4%, and real wage growth has increased to a still modest 11.5% per year. Domestic demand growth continues to run the us 2019 Euromonitor International 14 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 the us Consumer and business confidence indices have declined in recent months. Financial markets and business uncertainty levels have increased, and macroeconomic risks are significantly tilted to the downside. In our baseline forecast we expect US real gdp growth of 22.7% in 2019 and 1.12.2% in 2020. gdp growth is expected to decline to an annual rate of 1.12.1% over 20212025. Baseline scenario probability: 2030% over a one-year horizon. 2019 Euromonitor International 15 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 in two years. Global exports demand growth has declined in recent quarters. The preliminary q4 2018 gdp growth estimate was just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, with year-on-year growth declining from 1.6% in q3 to just 1.2% in q4. General outlook The Eurozone outlook has continued to deteriorate since November. Private sector sentiment has declined to the lowest level the eurozone INDICATOR 2017 % 2018 (E) % 2019 (F) % 2020 (F) % 20212025 AVERAGE (F) % 2019 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points 2020 FORECAST CHANGE Percentage points Real gdp growth 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 -0.1 0.0 Inflation 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 ECB Refinancing Rate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 2019 Euromonitor International 16 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 the eurozone Much of the recent disappointing growth is due to temporary factors such the Gilets Jaunes protests in France and some sectoral industry shocks in Germany. Nevertheless, the Eurozone economy appears to be slowing down close to its long-term trend growth in 20192020, with rising downside risks. Our baseline forecast for Eurozone gdp growth is 1.22% in 2019, followed by 12.1% growth in 2020. Annual gdp growth in 20212025 is expected to be 0.81.8%. We assign the baseline scenario a probability of 2030% over a one-year horizon. 2019 Euromonitor International 17 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 General outlook The beginning of 2019 saw a number of negative reports impact the UK economy. The preliminary estimates show that real gdp growth decelerated from 1.6% in q3 to 1.3% year on year in q4 2018, nearly the slowest in six years. In q4 2018, private and public consumption made positive contributions to gdp growth, while investments and net trade contributed negatively. Over the last five years, UK economic growth has gone from the top to the bottom of the ranking among the g7 economies. The growth has particularly slowed down since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, weighed down by uncertainty. the uk UK Real GDP vs. G7 Countries, y-o-y Growth % -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1.3 Brexit vote United Kingdom Fastest/Slowest growth range among G7 2017 2018 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2019 2016 Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model 2019 Euromonitor International 18 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 the uk With a prevailing lack of clarity over the UKs exit from the EU, consumer sentiment in January 2019 was the most depressed since 2013. Waning consumer confidence, contracting business investments and bleak economic growth suggest the UK economy is at risk of stagnating and highlights how uncertainty about Brexit is putting strain on spending by both consumers and businesses. There is an unusual amount of volatility about the UK outlook going forward. In our baseline forecast we have kept the annual real gdp growth at 1.41.5% in 20192020. However, the outlook primarily depends on the deal under which the UK will pledge to leave the EU. Index -0.3 Brexit vote 2017 2018 2014 2015 2013 2019 2016 -2 -1 0 1 2 UK consumers are the least optimistic in six years Source: Euromonitor International from Eurostat Note: Values above 0 indicate sentiment above long term average 2019 Euromonitor International 19 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q1 2019 japan General outlook Slowing global demand and the China-US trade war continue to take their toll on Japans economy, with real gdp growth standing virtually at zero in q4 2018, dragged down by lower exports. On the positive side, consumption and investment picked up a tad towards the end of the year, although the rebound is under question bearing in mind the sluggish overall outlook. Stagnant growth in q4 2018 prompted us to revise our real gdp growth forecasts for 2019 down to 0.6% (compared to 1.0% in our November report). The projection for 2020 remains at 0