2019年Q1全球经济状况调研（英文版）.pdf

Global economic conditions survey report:Q1, 2019 The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, Institute of Management AccountantsApril 2019About IMAIMA, named 2017 and 2018 Professional Body of the Year by The Accountant/International Accounting Bulletin, is one of the largest and most respected associations focused exclusively on advancing the management accounting profession. Globally, IMA supports the profession through research, the CMA(Certified Management Accountant) program, continuing education, networking and advocacy of the highest ethical business practices. IMA has a global network of more than 100,000 members in 140 countries and 300 professional and student chapters Headquartered in Montvale, N.J., USA, IMA provides localized services through its four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India. For more information about IMA, please visit: imanetAbout ACCA ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is the global body for professional accountants, offering business-relevant, first-choice qualifications to people of application, ability and ambition around the world who seek a rewarding career in accountancy, finance and management. ACCA supports its 208,000 members and 503,000 students in 179 countries, helping them to develop successful careers in accounting and business, with the skills required by employers. ACCA works through a network of 104 offices and centres and more than 7,300 Approved Employers worldwide, who provide high standards of employee learning and development. Through its public interest remit, ACCA promotes appropriate regulation of accounting and conducts relevant research to ensure accountancy continues to grow in reputation and influence. ACCA is currently introducing major innovations to its flagship qualification to ensure its members and future members continue to be the most valued, up to date and sought-after accountancy professionals globally. Founded in 1904, ACCA has consistently held unique core values: opportunity, diversity, innovation, integrity and accountability. More information is here: accaglobalThe Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), carried out jointly by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) and IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants), is the largest regular economic survey of accountants around the world, in terms of both the number of respondents and the range of economic variables it monitors. Its main indices are good predictors of GDP growth in themed countries and its daily trend deviations correlate well with the VIX, or fear index, which measures expected stock price volatility.Fieldwork for the Q1 2019 GECS took place between 1 and 14 March 2019 and attracted 1335 responses from ACCA and IMA members around the world, including 107 CFOs.ACCA and IMA would like to thank all members who took the time to respond to the survey. It is their first-hand insights into the fortunes of companies around the world that make GECS a trusted barometer for the global economy.IntroductionThe Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is the largest regular economic survey of accountants in the world.3Chart 2: Confidence bouncesThere was a bounce in the GECS global confidence index in Q1, after it fell to a record low at the end of last year. But confidence is below its level in Q2 last year and comfortably below its long run average. Meanwhile, the global orders index was virtually unchanged this quarter. This index is less volatile than confidence and held up better through last year. This underscores the message that the GECS is pointing to slower global growth this year but not a major collapse. As usual respondents expressed the highest degree of concern about rising operating costs. But for the third quarter in a row this pressure eased, with 48% citing this as an issue, down from 55% in Q2 2018. Softening global economic growth is contributing to an easing of cost pressures. Meanwhile, the possibility that their suppliers would go out of business was a worry for just 12% of respondents unchanged from Q4 2018. Both employment and investment intentions remain relatively weak, although in neither case was there a significant change from the previous quarter. Confidence in the US recovered in the Q1 survey but at the same time the orders balance fell further, to the lowest level since Q3 2016. A divergence between the change in confidence and orders is unusual. A possible explanation is that confidence benefitted from increased optimism about a trade deal with China but orders reflected to a greater extent the real economy. In addition, there may have been some effect from the US government shutdown which extended into January. The message continues to be one of slowing GDP growth this year, but with recession unlikely. Executive summary There was a bounce in the GECS global confidence index in Q1, after it fell to a record low at the end of last year. 44035302520151050China Asia Pacific Middle East South Asia US UK AfricaGlobalChart 1: Global confidence bounces, consistent with modest global slowdownSource: GECS, OECDSource: GECS-40-30-20-100102.02.53.03.54.04.5GECS index: global confidence World GDP (G20) Growth % yy (RHS)2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 20182014Change in confidence from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019Optimism about USChina trade negotiations probably helped lift confidence in China too. Confidence there is now at its highest level in a year. Growth slowed sharply towards the end of last year, culminating in the slowest pace of expansion for the whole year since 1990. The short term outlook is likely to be relatively weak with data so far this year showing very weak trade and anaemic industrial output. The GECS measures point to modest expansion in the first half of 2019. Stimulus measures mainly concentrated in tax cuts are likely to have a positive impact from the middle of the year onwards.Confidence in the UK bounced in Q1 but only to a modest degree. The picture from the GECS remains the same as in the previous quarter orders point to moderate growth, hampered especially by weak business investment. Our view is that UK growth this year will be around 1%, i.e. weaker than last year and well below its trend rate. The GECS was conducted before the announcement of the extension of Article 50 beyond the original departure date of 29th March. Persistent Brexit uncertainty is the biggest negative influence on the UK economy at present. Until there is some clarity on Brexit UK growth is likely to be rather sluggish. In Western Europe as a whole confidence improved in the quarter but remains well below its long run average. There was a sharp slowdown in the euro area economy in the second half of 2018 with Germany stagnating and Italy in technical recession. Slower export growth has been a major factor in this weakness and the global economic outlook does not suggest an imminent recovery. For now Brexit is an additional source of downside risk to the region. In other regions the Middle East enjoyed a significant bounce in both confidence and orders in Q1, helped by the strong recovery in oil prices so far this year. It remains to be seen how sustainable the rise in oil prices is, given the slowing global economy and doubts about compliance with recent output cuts agreed by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Meanwhile, confidence in Africa registered a rather modest increase in the quarter and orders declined. Political uncertainty is an issue in many African countries where much-needed domestic reform is being held up. Finally South Asia saw a big jump in confidence, probably helped by signs of progress on Pakistans International Monetary Fund (IMF) bail-out negotiations. With economies in the US, euro-zone and the UK all slowing to various degrees, the relative position of emerging markets (EMs) has improved. Of course weaker developed economy growth will reduce demand for EM exports. But there are positives. The end of or at least a significant pause in US monetary tightening and the associated upward pressure on the US dollar eases economic pressure on many EMs by mitigating inflationary pressures and reducing debt-servicing costs. The risk of contagion from countries facing particular difficulties, such as Venezuela and Turkey has also diminished. This relative improvement is reflected in the change in confidence and orders between OECD and non-OECD countries in the latest GECS.Global economic conditions survey report: Q1, 2019 5Persistent Brexit uncertainty is the biggest negative influence on the UK economy at present. Until there is some clarity on Brexit UK growth is likely to be rather sluggish.Chart 3: Emerging markets outperform20151050-5-10OECD Non-OECDSource: GECSnConfidencenOrdersChange in confidence and orders in Q1: OECD and non-OECDCHINA A DEBT AND DEMOGRAPHICS TIME BOMB?For almost four decades from 1980 the Chinese economy expanded at an average rate of almost 10% a year on the back of market-oriented reforms and integration into the global economy. The result is that China is now the second largest economy in the world. But recently growth has moderated and last year the economy grew by 6.6%, its weakest rate since 1990. Such a rate would be welcomed in developed economies. But for China, where incomes per head are still at a level that puts it in the middle income bracket, such a rate is cause for concern. That is why the authorities have recently introduced stimulus measures in an attempt to boost growth and hit the official target for GDP growth this year of 6% to 6.5%. In this piece we will look at two long-term structural issues that are likely to exert a downward influence on the pace of Chinese economic growth in the years ahead debt and demographics. DebtTotal debt in China has shot up over the last 10 years, reaching levels comparable to those in the US and UK and well above the levels prevailing in most emerging markets. (See chart below.) The increase in Chinese indebtedness, by 115% of GDP, is all the more remarkable given the pace of GDP growth over the period. But therein lies the issue for China debt fuelled growth has now run its course and can no longer be relied upon as a permanent driver of rapid economic expansion. The dramatic rise in Chinese debt began with its response to the global financial crisis of 2008/09 the massive easing worked very well and the rise in debt helped to boost growth quickly and significantly and the Chinese economy bounced back more quickly from the financial crisis than Western economies. The bulk of the rise in debt occurred in the corporate sector, which includes State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) as well as purely private companies. High levels of corporate debt are the distinguishing feature of Chinese debt household and central government debt levels are in line with economies such as the US or euro-zone. True, some debt measured as corporate debt in China is ultimately local government debt funded through opaque vehicles called Local Government Finance Vehicles (LGFVs). But even assuming LGFV debt is not corporate debt still leaves corporate debt at 140% of GDP, higher than, say the US at around 80% and the euro-zone at 100%. Within Chinese corporate debt SOEs account for more than half of the total 72% of GDP in 2017 according to the IMF. Moreover, SOEs were responsible for most of the increase in corporate debt between 2008 and 2016. Of course high levels of debt are not necessarily a problem if the assets they support are of high quality, such that the debts can be serviced and ultimately repaid. Two areas of Chinese debt raise concerns in this respect. First, there is the lending to SOEs. This was the main channel through which the easing of policy was conducted in the wake of the financial crisis. A lot of this extra debt was used by SOEs on directly boosting investment spending, thus lifting GDP growth. Unfortunately many SOEs are not viable, profitable businesses so that investment by such companies has been wasteful and uneconomic. The Chinese State Council broadly defines nonviable firms as those that incur three consecutive years of losses, fail to meet environmental or technological standards, and rely heavily on government or bank support to survive. Such companies are nevertheless kept alive because they are major sources 61. Thematic analysisTwo long-term structural issues are likely to exert a downward influence on the pace of Chinese economic growth in the years ahead debt and demographics.Chart 4: Chinas rapidly expanding debt levelsSource: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)300250200150100500UK China US IndiaGermanynQ1 2008nQ3 2018Outstanding credit as per cent of GDPof employment and remain crucial to regional economies. The share of total corporate debt attributable to these so-called “zombie” firms is estimated to have been around 15% in 2016, the highest level since 2009. Such debt is of course unlikely to be repaid and represents a key element of Chinas bad debt problem. The resolution of this bad debt problem is likely to be through a gradual slow-burn process as lending to SOEs is curtailed and restructured after all both the debtor (SOEs) and creditor (state- banks) are ultimately owned or controlled by the state. More likely to trigger a traditional banking crisis is the debt of the private corporate sector. In particular, construction and real estate firms have taken on large amounts of debt in recent years, fuelling a real estate boom. Falling real estate prices would clearly expose this debt to write-downs and increase banks bad debt provisions. In addition, while household debt is not at excessive levels judged by US or UK standards it has also increased rapidly in recent years. Economic slowdown or house price correction could expose households to the need to rebuild their balance sheets, squeezing consumption.The influence of the Chinese state diminishes but does not eliminate the chances of a financial crisis. But the authorities are now clearly concerned about the level of debt hence recent attempts to rein in the pace of credit growth. It is noteworthy that recent stimulus efforts have concentrated on fiscal measures, such as tax cuts rather than through monetary easing and boosting credit growth. If China is moving away from debt-fuelled growth - at the same time as moving towards a more consumption-driven and service sector economy then a much lower trend rate of GDP growth is almost inevitable. Demographics A highly predictable trend in China in coming years will be demographics in particular a declining working age population. In 1970 the fertility rate in China (the number of children per woman during her child-bearing years) was more than six; now it is 1.6, lower than even the UK or US (both 1.8). The population is 1.4 bn and expected