2019年美国夏季航空客运量报告(英文版).pptx

1Q 2019 Review & Summer Air Travel Forecast,May 21, 2019,Contents, Some Highlights From 2018 Review of First Quarter 2019 Coping With the Absence of the B737 MAX Air-Travel Forecast for Summer 2019 Items to Watch This Summer and Beyond,airlines,2,The 730,000 Employees of U.S. Passenger and Cargo Airlines Offer an Extensive Worldwide Network Facilitating the Safe and Rapid Movement of People and Goods,27,000 daily flightsacross the globe*,58,000 tons of cargoper day*,2.4 million passengersper day,airlines,3,Source: A4A and Bureau of Transportation Statistics for U.S. passenger and cargo airlines* Includes passenger/combination and cargo-only carriers,In 2018, passengers traveled more than 1 trillion miles on U.S. carriers,Among 11 U.S. Airline Brands, Smaller Carriers Have Been Growing the FastestAllegiant and Spirit Are Now Four to Five Times as Large as They Were in 2007,4,7,10,24,34,78,131 13198 108,348,406,450400350300250200150100500,Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) schedules as of April 19, 2019, for selected marketing airlines including predecessors,airlines,4,* Company guidance as of April 26, 2019,Change (%) in Scheduled ASMs 2007 to 2019,Estimated 2019 Growth*,LCCs/ULCCs and Other Non-AA/DL/UA Airlines* Now Carry Significant Share of Domestic Origin-Destination (O&D) Passengers in the Largest U.S. Metro Areas,airlines,5,Source: Compass Lexecon and A4A analysis of DOT Origin-Destination Survey (Data Bank 1B),Source: U.S. Department of Commerce National Travel and Tourism Office,*Years preceding 2011 do not include traffic between the United States and Canada,91.3,95.3,98.4,102.1,104.6,107.2,111.9,115.9,75.0,82.2,86.9,95.2,104.5,114.4,121.7,130.1,166.3,177.6,185.4,197.3,209.1,221.6,233.6,246.1,0,50,100,150,200,250,2011,2012,2015,2016,2017,2018,20132014U.S. Flag,Foreign Flag,Air Travel Between the U.S. and Foreign Countries* Reached All-Time High in 2018Foreign Flag Airlines Carried 53 Percent of Passengers, Up From 45 Percent in 2011International Air Passengers* (Millions) to/from the United States300,53%,airlines,6,47%,30.0,29.7,25.1,17.1,16.1,11.6,6.7,50,10,15,20,25,30,U.S. Airlines Continue to Strive for Solid Profitability Across the Business CycleIn Current U.S. Business Cycle, Airline Margins Are Less Than Half the U.S. Average35,MCDAAPLDISSBUX,All USA,CMG,Airlines,Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, A4A Passenger Airline Cost Index and company SEC filings,McDonalds,Apple,All US Corps.,Starbucks,Pre-Tax Profit Margin (%) for 2010-2018,Disney,Chipotle,airlines,7,Substantial U.S. Passenger Airline Capital Investment* in Current Business CycleTotal Projected to Reach $140 Billion by the End of 2019,5.2,6.6,9.8,12.5,13.9,17.0,17.5,19.9,18.6,19.2,2010201120122013201420152016201720182019F,U.S. Passenger Airline Capital Expenditures*$ Billions per Year,airlines,8,* Includes payments made for aircraft and other flight equipment, ground and other property and equipment, airport and other facility construction and information technology Source: SEC filings of Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit, United and merged/acquired predecessors,YE2018 firm orders for 1,717 aircraft valued at $88B (1 a/c per day in 2019)Several billion dollars committed for facilities, ground equipment, technology,62,74,78767472706866646260,200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022,Scale = 0-100; ACSI for airlines commenced in 1994,ACSI 2019 Airline Customer Satisfaction Index: Second Best in 25-Year HistoryEase of Booking and Checking in for Flight Rank Highest,828282,airlines,9,810000,Ease of check-in Mobile app quality Mobile app reliabilityEase of making reservation Courtesy of flight crew Courtesy of gate staff Timeliness of arrival Website satisfication Baggage handling Boarding experience Call center satisfactionCleanliness of cabin and lavatory Range of flight schedulesLoyalty program Overhead storageQuality of premium food/beverage Quality of inflight entertainmentSeat comfort,Note: ACSI and its logo are Registered Marks of the University of Michigan; see theacsi/the-american-customer-satisfaction-index Source: ACSI Travel Report 2018-2019 (April 30, 2019),FIRST QUARTER 2019 REVIEW,airlines,10,1Q 2019 Presented Some Significant Operating Challenges,Source: A4A research, FAA Air Traffic Organization and masFlight (subsidiary of Global Eagle),Safety / Security / Air Traffic IssuesJan 8 flights halted at LHR for approximately one hour due to drone sightingsJan 22 FAA halted EWR arrivals for 30 minutes due to drone sightings at 3,500 feet over TEB Jan 25 LGA/PHL/EWR/ATL flight delays surge as controllers called in sick amid USG shutdown Feb 2 100+ delays and 45 cancellations at MCO after TSA agent jumps off airport hotel balcony Feb 13 smoke in Dallas TRACON forced ground stops at DAL/DFW, resulting in 63 cancellations Mar 5 massive lightning storm caused brief power outage at three LAX terminalsMar 13 737 MAX fleet grounded, affecting AA/UA/WN, AA and resulting in 100-200 xncls per day Mar 26 widespread Sabre outage prevents AA/AS/B6 pax from checking in/boarding for 30 minsRunway Maintenance / Rehabilitation / Widening HNL/MCO/ORD/SANMajor Weather EventsJan 29-31 Polar Vortex grounds 1K flights; arctic temps prevent workers from loading bags, etc.Feb 7 snowstorm in MSP and rain/wind in Chicago areaFeb 10-13 snowstorm in Midwest and Northeast; SEA snowstorm; wind and heavy rain at SFOFeb 17, 20, 21 Chicago snowstorm; Chicago/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast snow impact; LAS snowstormFeb 24-26 wind storms hamper operations from Great Lakes to NE and at SFO/western USAMar 3-4 heavy snow in the NortheastMar 13-15 blizzard shuts down DEN for a day; t-storms in Dallas then CHI/Great Lakes/Northeast,airlines,11,In 1Q 2019, U.S. Airlines Saw a Modest Improvement in ProfitabilityStrong Traffic Growth Helped Offset Continued Increases in Every Major Cost Category,Change (%) in Operating Revenues and Expenses: 1Q19 vs. 1Q18,4.7,(2.1),3.1,4.5,5.2,2.5,8.9,4.8,6.8,1.4,3.7,4.8,5.6,Traffic (revenue passenger miles) up 4.6 percent; yield (revenue per passenger-mile flown) up 0.1 percent; U.S. CPI up 1.6 percentSale of frequent flyer award miles to airline business partners, transportation of pets, in-sourced aircraft and engine repair, flight simulator rentals, inflight sales, etc.Aircraft rents, professional fees, food/beverage, insurance, commissions, GDS fees, communications, advertising, utilities, office supplies, crew hotels, payments to regionalsSource: A4A analysis of reports by Alaska, Allegiant, American, Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and United,Pre-Tax Profit Margin (%),4.6% more traffic YOY,airlines,12,airlines,13,Crude-Oil Prices Have Reached Highest Level Since October 2018Spot Price of Brent Crude Oil ($ per Barrel)$90$80$70$60$50$40$30$20$10$0,Jan-16Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20,Source: A4A and Energy Information Administration (eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm),airlines,Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and published airline schedules via Diio Mi,(1.8),1.3,4.8,0.9,2.0,2.4,(4),(2),0,2,4,6,(6)2005-2010 ($75)2010-2014 ($108)2014-2019 ($59)Domestic Airline Capacity (ASMs)U.S. Economy (Real GDP),14,* Brent crude oil in dollars per barrel, shown next to each time period,For U.S. Airlines, the Price of Oil* Is a Huge Determinant of Capacity GrowthWhen Fuel Costs Decline and Finances Improve, Growth AcceleratesCompound Annual Growth Rate (%),High Oil + Tepid GDP = Industry Shrinks,Extreme Oil+ Better GDP = Industry Grows Economy,Lower Oil+ Better GDP =Industry Grows 2X Economy,2,274,2,289,2,366,2,454,2,542,2,651,2,765,310,330,351,368,390,405,421,2,584,2,620,2,717,2,823,2,932,3,056,3,186,0,1,5001,000500,2,000,2,500,3,000,3,500,2013,2014,2018,2019,2015Domestic,20162017International,Airlines Offering a Record 3.2M Daily Seats From U.S. Airports in 2019Growth of More Than 4 Percent in 2018 and 2019,airlines,15,Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) published schedules as of May 17, 2019, for all U.S. and non-U.S. airlines,Daily Scheduled Seats (000) Departing U.S. Airports for All Destinations,COPING WITH THE ABSENCE OF THE B737 MAX,airlines,16,B737 MAX Fleets of U.S. Airlines as of March 31, 2019,airlines,17,Source: A4A and company filings,* Including leases,Note: Summer flying reductions = 200 daily flights and 35,000 daily seats,Eight Airlines Operate the Boeing 737 MAX Between the USA and 11 Countries,Air Canada American Gol Icelandair Norwegian Southwest United WestJet,Source: Innovata (via Diio Mi) schedules as of April 26, 2019 for September 2019,Antigua and Barbuda Barbados BermudaBrazil Canada,Dominican Rep.Ecuador Iceland Ireland NorwayTrinidad and Tobago,airlines,18,Mechanisms for Coping With Disruptions to Fleet Plan, Trim 2019 capacity relative to planned growth,airlines,19, Utilize spare aircraft Increase utilization of other aircraft types (e.g., B757) Defer discretionary maintenance (i.e., painting, WiFi installation/upgrades) Reduce frequency on longer routes (e.g., DFW-BDL), re-route pax through hubs Temporarily suspend lighter routes (e.g., PIT-CUN, PIT-LAX) Leverage automated rebooking tools (99% of pax rebooked within 24 hours) Defer retirements or purchase/lease additional aircraft if grounding is prolonged,SUMMER 2019 AIR TRAVEL FORECASTWorldwide Operations of All U.S Passenger Airlines,airlines,20,U.S. Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level in 15 Years,2.9,1.6,2.2,2.9,2.7,U.S. Real GDP Growth (% CAGR),U.S. Employment Growth (000s per Month),227,193,179,223,205,2019,Sources: U.S. GDP (Bureau of Economic Analysis actuals and IHS Markit forecast); U.S. nonfarm payroll employment growth (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) from BLS; consumer sentiment (University of Michigan, Index 1Q 1966=100); U.S. household net worth in current dollars, not seasonally adjusted (Federal Reserve),20152016201720182019FConsumer Sentiment (UMich Index 1Q66=100),2015201620172018U.S. Household Net Worth (Trillions),$90,$95,$103,$104,2015,2016,2017,2018,98.098.297.996.2100.198.697.598.391.293.898.497.2102.4,airlines,21,MayJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May,A4A Projects Summer* 2019 Air Travel on U.S. Airlines to Rise for Tenth Consecutive Year Up 3.4 Percent to All-Time High of 257.4M Passengers (2.8M per Day),201.1,204.1,207.3,207.8,208.2,214.0,223.5,228.2,237.3,248.8,257.4,84.8,85.685.5,86.0,86.186.186.4,85.5,85.8,86.8,0,20,40,60,80,100,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,2009201020112012201320142015201620172018 2019FPassengersLoad Factor,Source: A4A and BTS T100 segment data U.S. carriers only; scheduled and nonscheduled services* For this purpose, defined as June 1 through August 31,airlines,22,Onboard Passengers (Millions),Load Factor (Percent),U.S. airlines adding 111,000 seats/day to accommodate 93,000 more pax/day,In 2018, Summer Passenger Volumes Averaged 13 Percent More Than Rest of YearSummer Load Factor Averaged 4.7 Points Higher Than Rest of Year,2.09,2.22,2.47,2.47,2.51,2.71,2.72,2.62,2.30,2.45,2.43,2.36,78.4,79.6,84.5,82.5,83.8,87.1,87.4,85.8,80.4,83.0,83.4,82.1,0,20,40,60,80,100,0.0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,OctNovDec,JanFebMarAprMayDaily Pax,JunJulAugSepLoad Factor,Source: A4A and BTS T100 segment data U.S. carriers only; scheduled and nonscheduled services,Passengers per Day (Millions),airlines,23,Load Factor (Percent),Summer 2019 Air Travel Forecast: A4A Numbers Compared to TSA Numbers,Source: A4A and TSA,airlines,24,ITEMS TO WATCH THIS SUMMER AND BEYOND,airlines,25,Sources: TSA and CBP,4.2,5.8,8.2,5.7,7.1,8.5,9.9,12.9,16.8,2018161412108642-,12/31/1612/31/173/31/19Global Entry/NEXUS/SENTRI TSA Pre,airlines,26,Airline/Government Collaboration Boosting Enrollment in Trusted Traveler ProgramsA4A Encourages Travelers to Enroll in TSA Pre or Global EntryPersons Enrolled (Millions)TSA Pre Saves You Time and Stress,More than 8 million members are already taking advantage of Pre.200+ airports and 67 airlines provide Pre.In April 2019, 93% of Pre passengers waited less than 5 minutes in line.This Summer, TSA will pilot an in-journey “TSA tablet” enrollment opportunity for travelers at select airports. Travelers will be able to enroll in Pre while in transit to their airline gate.Check tsa.gov to see if your credit card or loyalty program reimburses Pre application fees.,Beginning October 1, 2020, Every Air Traveler 18+ Years Will Need a REAL ID- Compliant Drivers License or Another Acceptable Form of ID to Fly Within the USA,Sources: TSA (tsa.gov/real-id),How do I get a REAL ID? Check with your state drivers license agency. You will need to go in person to present documentation to verify who you are.,airlines,27,U.S. CBP Clears More Than 10,000 International Passengers per Day at 10 Airports,Sources: A4A analysis of DOT T100 segment data, including all preclearance locations,* 12 months ended October 2018,41,481,31,15326,53218,05916,38215,88014,57714,49212,68110,2959,5248,8298,5487,5116,8136,5455,9155,4324,3634,3564,3353,9023,5743,3133,2692,7602,6962,6212,2141,65324,381,JFKLAX MIA YYZ SFO EWR ORD ATL IAH DFW IAD FLL YVR BOS HNL MCO YUL SEA DUB DTW YYC PHL GUM CLT NAS DEN MSP LAS AUA PHXOther,Average Daily Passengers Cleared by Customs and Border Protection Officers, 2018*,U.S. Airport Federal Inspection Station (FIS) CBP Preclearance Site,airlines,28,2019 Staffing Challenges for U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) To date, 486 CBP officers (CBPOs) have been reassigned from airports, seaports and northern land ports to supplement Border Patrol staffing along the southern border A4A continues to work with CBP as the busy summer travel season approaches, this year exacerbated by the ongoing crises at the southern border and the reassignment of CBPOs away from airports CBPs overtime budget is quickly depleting due to the southern border crisis, and A4A supports the administrations request for supplemental appropriations for CBP staffing and overtime A4A supports innovative entry solutions such as CBPs Global Entry Trusted Traveler Program and Mobile Passport Control, which have proven effective at alleviating long lines at airport Federal Inspection Stations (FIS),