2020年第三季度全球预测（英文版）.pdf

A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit A Q3 recovery, what Q3 recovery? Q3 global forecast 2020The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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Find out more at: eiu/ healthcare Public Policy: Trusted by the sectors most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidence- based research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. Find out more at: eiu/ publicpolicy The Economist Corporate Network The Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Groups advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions. The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Networks membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.Q3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 1 The coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic will have a huge and lasting negative effect on the global economy; 2020 and 2021 will be lost years in terms of growth, and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the global economy to recover to pre-coronavirus levels only in 2022. However, this global forecast masks big disparities between countries. Some members of the G7 and BRICS groupings will recover quickly, whereas others will take up to four years to return to pre-coronavirus GDP levels. China will be an exception, as we do not expect the country to enter a recession this year. The pandemic-induced recession has wiped out global GDP during the first half of this year. We believe that most economies will start to recover in the third quarter, posting double-digit rates of quarterly growth. However, their recovery will start from a low base, given the economic shock experienced in the second quarter. This means that impressive rates of quarterly growth in July- September will not mean much. In fact, the output of G7 and BRICS countries in the third quarter of this year will remain low, and in some cases at levels last recorded more than two decades ago. Among G7 and BRICS countries, India looks the best placed to recover the fastest. In July-September Indias output will be similar to that registered one year ago, which is an impressive performance by international standards; the country will recover to 2019 GDP levels as early as next year. However, there are high downside risks to this forecast, as India is fast becoming a new coronavirus hotspot, and the lack of a social safety net for many workers will have pushed up poverty levels. Despite a high coronavirus death toll, the US economic story also looks broadly positive. The countrys third-quarter output will be similar to that registered in the same period of 2017. Its economy should be back to pre-coronavirus GDP levels in 2022, highlighting the flexibility of its labour market. However, there are grave risks to this forecast, as many US states are re-imposing social distancing measures in an attempt to curb a recent rise in number of coronavirus cases. A Q3 recovery, what Q3 recovery? The expected rebound in the third quarter of 2020 will be far less impressive than the headline numbers suggest. G7 and BRICS countries have lost several years of growth because of the pandemic Forecast real GDP growth in 2020, % change on a year earlier Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. BRICS countries G7 Countries Pre-coronavirus forecast July 14th forecast China Saudi Arabia India Russia Brazil -10 -5 0 5 10 n/a Q2 2023 Q4 2021 Q4 2024 Q2 2023 Japan United States Canada Germany UK France Italy -15 -10 -5 0 5 Q4 2024 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q4 2022 Q4 2023 Q4 2022 Q3 2024 Return to levelQ3 GLOBAL FORECAST 2020 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 2 Beyond these two positive examples, the third-quarter output of most G7 countries will be roughly equivalent to that registered during the same period in 2016. In other words, the coronavirus pandemic has wiped out about four years of economic growth for Canada, France, Germany and the UK. However, we expect that the recovery in most of these countries will be swift by international standards, owing to generous furlough schemes (which have prevented mass layoffs) and massive fiscal stimulus programmes. Germany, the EUs traditional growth engine, will be back to pre-coronavirus GDP levels by late 2022. This will be positive news for the rest of the euro zone and eastern European economies, which are highly dependent on Germanys manufacturing sector. Canada and France will also have recovered by end-2022, although high levels of unemployment in both countries will threaten their recovery. The UK is an outlier, recovering only in 2023; this may be because the end of the Brexit transition period in December 2020 will cause a further economic shock. Brazil, Japan, Russia and South Africa form a third group of countries, which will experience a slower recovery. In July-September we expect that their output will have shrunk to levels last recorded in 2009 (Brazil), 2012 ( Japan, Russia) and 2013 (South Africa). In turn, the recovery of these economies to pre-coronavirus GDP levels will be slow; output will not be back to 2019 levels before 2023 (Brazil) or 2024 ( Japan, Russia and South Africa). Japan is a rich, developed country that will be able to weather the economic crisis. However, less affluent countries such as Brazil, Russia and South Africa will find themselves in a much more precarious situation. Italy is an outlier among G7 countries. In the third quarter of this year Italys output will be at levels last registered in 1997. This reflects the combined impact of previously stringent lockdown measures, a bleak outlook for the crucial tourism sector and the lack of fiscal space to boost the economy. Unsurprisingly, Italys recovery will also be slow, returning to pre-coronavirus GDP levels only in 2024. The country was a thorny issue for the EU before the pandemic started, given its high level of indebtedness. The pandemic will heighten pre-existing political tensions, as Italy increasingly looks like the sick man of Europe. Real GDP growth rate (%), quarter on quarter BRICS 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 GDP back to pre- coronavirus levels in. Q3 2020 GDP equivalent to. Brazil -1.6 -12.1 3.3 Q2 2023 Q4 2009 China -10.8 12.2 2.5 n/a n/a India 0.3 -20 16.4 Q4 2021 Q2 2019 Russia -0.9 -15.5 11 Q4 2024 Q4 2012 South Africa -2 -50.9 11.7 Q3 2024 Q1 2013 G7 Canada -2.1 -6.7 1.8 Q4 2022 Q3 2016 France -5.3 -15.5 12.6 Q4 2022 Q4 2016 Germany -2.2 -8.4 4.1 Q4 2022 Q1 2016 Italy -5.3 -15 11.5 Q3 2024 Q2 1997 Japan -0.6 -5.1 0.4 Q4 2024 Q1 2012 UK -2 -20.6 18.6 Q4 2023 Q1 2016 USA -5.0 -31.4 13.2 Q3 2022 Q3 2017 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 3 Country Analysis provides you with the best forward-looking data and analysis to understand a countrys political, policy and economic outlook. From financial institutions to corporates, governmental departments and universities, the worlds leading organisations rely on our Country Analysis service to keep them informed about the world and what it will look like tomorrow. 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