数字政策：为商业、工作和消费者服务，趋势、机会和挑战（英文版）.pdf

DIGITAL POLICY FOR BUSINESS, WORK AND CONSUMERS Trends Opportunities Challenges23de.digitalContents I. Digitalisation in the social market economy: trends, opportunities and challenges 4II. Guidelines for the digital transformation 12III. Areas of activity and initiatives 181. Growth and employment with Industry 4.0 182. Shaping Work 4.0 in the digital world 213. Consumer policy 4.0 284. Strengthening digital competence at all levels 375. Guaranteeing fair competition 456. Securing and expanding data sovereignty and data protection 497. Advancing the digitalisation of small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); using the innovative power of start-ups 578. Top-calibre digital technologies 629. Digital connectedness, access and participation 6510. Copyright in the networked and digitalised world 68IV. International cooperation 701. European sovereignty and the Digital Single Market 712. Germanys presidency of the G20 723. International organisations 74V. Prospects 76Publishers imprint 824To a large degree, digitalisation is now already shaping the way we live, communicate, work, conduct business and consume and will do so to an even greater degree in the future. The transition which we are currently experiencing is not a purely economic-technological process but rather a process encompassing all of society, one that also touches on issues of freedom and democracy. And digitalisation is an across-the-board topic, one that presents us with connecting interfaces, notably those that link up business, work and consumer policy.I.Digitalisation in the social market economy: trends, opportunities and challenges5de.digitalSource: Martin Hilbert (USC), Priscila Lopez (UOC), The Worlds Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information, February 2011, bit.ly/2cDJDFX In 1993 only 3 % of data was in digital form worldwide. In 2000 it was around 25 %, by 2007 already 94 %Digitalisation trendsDigitalisation is currently being driven by technological advances in three areas and by how they interact:1. IT and software: The performance capacity of processors and data- storage media, as well as the speed of data transfer, continue to grow exponentially, making it easier to use cloud technologies and also mobile applications. Big Data technologies are opening up wholly new options for analysis. By now, algorithms with learning capabilities can justifiably be described as “artificial intelligence”.2. Robotics and sensor technology: While systems physical size and costs are shrinking, their opportunities for application and their usabil-ity are both increasing; this means they are also interesting for smaller businesses, individual manufacturing processes and even the private consumer in the “smart home”. In addition, there are new manufactur-ing techniques, such as additive procedures, as well as improved control and data gathering by means of new sensor technologies. 3. Establishment of networks: This enables cyber-physical systems to emerge as the foundation for the Internet of Things and Industry 4.0 networks of small computers, equipped with sensors and activators, are installed in objects, devices and machine parts, and can communi-cate with one another via the internet. In industry, process plant, machines and individual workpieces are continuously exchanging large amounts of information; indeed to a large degree they can now manage production, storage and logistical operations themselves. In activity areas close to consumers, networked devices communicate with one another in the smart home, while consumers can be online around the clock via use of a smartphone and fitness app. Based on Big Data, new business models and customer-oriented services are emerg-ing (e. g. in the area of Industry 4.0.: process planning, sales planning, 6Source: Statista, acc. to Bitkom ResearchUsing or planning the use of special applications (65 %)Can envisage using them (23 %) Topic is irrelevant (12 %)Industry 4.0 is the latest hot topic but how does it look in practice? A survey shows: 65 % of those surveyed are already using or are planning special Industry 4.0 applications.forward-looking maintenance; for instance, in the realm of commu-nication and the Internet of Things, e-commerce platforms, naviga-tion systems and smart-home applications).A current survey of 600 management personnel in Germany and the USA shows this: compared to the USA, Germany is by now performing better with regard to the digitalisation of its existing companies although it continues to have too few digital start-ups and too few internationally sig-nificant digital platforms. Opportunities, challenges, areas of tensionThe changes associated with digitalisation give rise to advantages and opportunities but, notably where the prospects for companies, employees and consumers intersect, they also generate whole new challenges and areas of tension:1. Probably the most frequently discussed issue is whether digitalisation makes human labour superfluous because the work is taken over by computers or robots. Indeed, which qualifications will even be suffi-cient for people to get through their working lives with any security? Will digitalisation enable as many people as possible to continue to have employment in the future? If so, subject to what preconditions?7de.digitalMore work or less?What digitalisations net outcome will be in employment terms is currently an open question. According to the much-cited study “The Future of Employment” by Frey and Osborne, 47 per cent of those in employment in the USA are pursuing professions that will be able to be automated over the next 10 to 20 years. Another study, commissioned by Germanys Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (BMAS), produces a much more differentiated assessment: starting from the basis that professions are comprised of a variety of activities and that some but not all can be automated, this study concludes that only 12 per cent of jobs are subject to a high risk of being automated. A further forecast produced by the BMAS, regarding the development of the labour market up to the year 2030, compares the “base scenario”, assuming a constant level of digitalisation without placing particular points of emphasis, with the alternative scenario of an “accelerated digitalisation”, one in which educational and infrastructure policy systematically direct their efforts to the digital transition. The key outcome is that, in the base scenario, the number of people in em ploy ment in the year 2030 is at approximately the 2014 level; conversely, and thanks to the effects on productivity, the accelerated- digitalisation scenario holds out the prospect of substantial positive effects on growth and employment.2. New business models, such as digital platforms, can generate sub-stantial advantages for consumers: greater transparency, freedom of choice and a reduced workload involved in obtaining informa-tion. But what consequences do these models entail for privacy and individuals self- determination? Are the existing consumer rights compatible with digital business models? Digitalisation can only be accepted, and thus can only succeed, if consumers place substantial trust in providers of products and services. What are the consequences for demand and growth if consum-ers doubt companies integrity, feel insecure, or fear unauthor-ised passing-on of their personal data, or its abuse?83. What effects will platforms and new business models have on future ways of working? Due to new, platform-based business mod-els and the phenomenon of “crowdworking”, a companys core of fixed employees could continue to shrink, with further outsourcing of tasks away from the firms themselves.4. In the future, business and the world of work will become more flexible. But what form could be taken by solutions also providing greater flexibility for the workforce, in terms of the workers deter-mining what they will do, also with regard to time and physical location? How can the workforces range of individual needs be resolved harmoniously? How it can be ensured that the boundaries that divide working life and family/private life are not completely dissolved? And how can individuals co-determination of outcomes and flexible structures be made into compatible variables? How does the modern company of the future look, one that perhaps no longer in all instances matches the classic image of a company, but one that makes it possible to have participation and a sense of secu-rity within society?5. What ramifications will digitalisation have on the quality of work? Will the man/machine interaction lead to an upgrading or down-grading of skills that form part of professional qualifications, to an increase or a decrease in the physical and mental burdens that indi-viduals face?6. If people and machines collaborate even more closely in the future, how can the machine contribute in rendering support to and devel-oping individual people in their working process? Is individuals work made better by cyber-physical systems in Industry 4.0, by new production concepts, the use of robot technology, digital end devices, assistance systems, and much more besides? Modern robots and assistance systems can relieve workers burden of physically exhausting work, while making a reality of working conditions that are conducive to learning. Conversely, data capture in the networked value-creation process could result both in a compression in work-ers performance of their tasks, and in new mechanisms for assess-ing and monitoring performance, to workers disadvantage. And if data-gathering and data-use become an ever more significant theme, how can employees justified entitlement to data-protection be safeguarded?9de.digitalNumber of industrial robots in use, (1,000 units), 2014 and 2018 (forecast)Asia/Australia Europe America201820141,417150012009006003000785411248 343519Source: IFR, Statista 20177. On the one hand, Big Data technologies and auto-learn algorithms make very promising innovations possible, such as language-trans-lation programmes, automated driving or spot-on diagnosis of illnesses. On the other, the forming of consumer profiles and projec-tions about future consumption behaviour can reinforce social ine-quality and can continue forms of discrimination. What challenges do these new technologies present to the state and society? Do we have sufficient knowledge at our disposal regarding how they func-tion, and their effects? Do we need an external monitoring body for algorithms and auto-learn systems?8. Through digitalisation, industrial companies can accomplish radical conversions and improvements in their production yet will they perhaps nonetheless lose their leading market position because new competitors edge their way to the front, with mastery of the client interfaces, e. g. search engines, and with superior data-related expertise?9. How can we safeguard the balance between the economic players if individual providers know almost everything about their customers and, as a result, major information imbalances exist? How do you counteract processes of concentration, emerging through digital platforms, if intensive use of such platforms continues to improve the range of services on offer, yet simultaneously this sets up barri-ers to market-entry for competitors? How can the platforms be influenced so that they take on responsibility in combating crimi-nality related to the dissemination of hatred?1010. Which challenges must our civil law take on if, regarding net-worked devices, the key issue (in addition to them being flawless at the time of purchase) is also that the digital additional services continue to work, even years after purchase? Who ensures, and for how long, that the software of networked equipment is updated by means of IT security patches? Is there a need to further develop the principles that determine which sellers and/or manufacturers of networked equipment currently bear liability for security gaps, so as to establish incentives for higher security standards, for instance, and to make it harder to set up bot networks? Or would this obstruct innovations by young technology firms?11. What does the course of demographic developments mean for the digitalisation process? For instance, can telemedicine and digital technologies in the realm of health and care of patients contribute to improving the quality of health-care provision, especially in rural areas? And what does this mean for elderly peoples social contacts?These issues and areas of tension generate, in some instances, a very wide range of answers from the business communty, trade unions, the science community and civil society. Many developments still have open-ended outcomes, which can still be steered towards one direction or another. One thing is already evident: the digital root-and-branch changes will stride forward and have more far-reaching effects than the changes in previous decades. The digital transformation brings with it lasting changes to existing structures and arrangements. 11de.digitalShaping digitalisation in the social market economyTherefore the joint aim of business and the trade unions, of civil society and of politicians must be to use the opportunities that this digital trans-formation brings and to minimise its risks. This is about structuring the transition process in such a way that, as far as is possible, everyone bene-fits from the new possibilites and can take part in them. The social market economy can generate viable answers for the future, even in a changing operating environment. To do so the right course must be set. The social market economy, and its institutions such as its framework for how com-petition functions, or the autonomy of parties to wage negotiations, pro-vide the suitable framework for action directed at structuring the digital- transformation process with fairness and appropriate judgment. The practical form that this takes is primarily established through legislation on business, employment and consumer-protection. This framework of arrangements is not static in nature; it must be regularly scrutinised and, where appropriate, adapted in the light of changes such as digitalisation that unfold in the business world and in society.12The task of shaping the digital transition for business, the workforce and consumers requires political guidelines. The issue is to ensure a fair bal-ance of interests among the economic players involved in the global data-driven economy and also not simply to drive digitalisation forward with-out reflecting on the developments. What we need instead is a digitalisa-tion of the world of business and of work that has direction and maintains finely-tuned judgment. It is only with an innovative digitalisation, main-taining balance of interests within soc