卡车运输的未来：运输业面临的挑战（英文版）.pdf

Shifting up a gearAutomation, electrification and digitalization in the trucking industrySeptember 2018Management summary Contents1. Key challenges for the trucking industry today .4Demand is strong but the industry must address issues such as inefficiency, driver shortages and tighter regulation.2. New technologies . 5Automation, electrification and digitalization will shake up the trucking industry.3. The business model . 11Transfer hubs and platooning combine to deliver substantial end-to-end savings for operators.Special feature: The endgame scenario . 14A new logistics ecosystem.4. Implications for the trucking industry . 16Larger freight volumes, industry consolidation and pressure on freight rates lie ahead.5. Our recommendations .17Fleet operators must prepare for the challenges ahead.Coverphoto: iStockphoto/liulolo; iStockphoto/alex-mit Trucking is the leading mode of freight transportation in many parts of the world, including the United States, Europe and China. But the industry is vexed by issues such as fragmentation, inefficiency, underutilinulltion of trucks, difficulties recruiting new drivers and tightening regulations on emissions.nullortunately, a number of trends that are currently visinullble in the industry offer solutions to these issues. nullehinullcle automation, electrification and digitalinullation will radically change the trucking industry over the next denullcades, allowing it to shift up a gear. nullew business modnullels will emerge, such as the transfer hub model, combinnulling driverless trucks on specific highway routes with conventional trucks for the first and last mile off the highway. The resulting operating cost savings will be signullnificant, shaving null to null percent off todaynull costs.null this paper, we examine the details of these technolog nullical changes and the impact they will have on the indusnulltry. nulls driverless trucks become a reality for highwaynull based linenullaul routes, electric powertrains become via nullble for shortnullrange applications and new digital solunulltions based on artificial intelligence nullnull improve utilinull nulltion and increase transparency, the overall logistics econullsystem will gradually mutate. Trucking companies will face both positive and negative knocknullon developments. nullleet sinulles will change, the industry will consolidate, new tech players will enter the market and freight rates will come under pressure. null the same time, the devel nullopment of legislation and public acceptance will be critnullical for the timing of the industry transformation.Fleet operators need to start adapting to the coming changes in the industry. To help them master the challenges we suggest some key steps and possible questions that they can ask themselves. The answers to these questions will help them define their strategic direc-tion and take the necessary steps to ensure that they stay ahead of the pack as the industry shifts up a gear. 2 Roland Berger Focus Shifting up a gear Shifting up a gear Roland Berger Focus 3Trucking is the leading freight transportation mode in the United States, Europe and China today. nullound null percent of all the freight tonnage moved in the United States and Europe goes by truck, and more than null per nullcent in China. Truck fleets in United States and Europe are highly utilinulld and as a consenulluence freight rates are high. nullo let up in demand is foreseen in the coming years either, with economic growth continuing apace in these regions.nullevertheless, the trucking fleet industry faces a senullries of challenges in all three markets. nullor one, the innulldustry landscape is highly fragmented with a small number of large fleets and a long tail of small fleets and owner drivers. nullefficiency is a critical issue, although its level and causes vary by region. null China, for exam nullple, trucks run empty an estimated null percent of the time as finding cargo is a manullr issue for drivers, espe nullcially in the countrynulls interior. null the United States and Europe, empty miles are caused by trucks traveling from one destination to the next pickup point without any payload due to inefficiencies in the dispatching process. The total empty miles here are lower than in China but still significant, accounting for an average of null percent of the total annual miles traveled.nulliver shortage is another pain point in both the United States and Europe. This affects mainly the longnullhaul segment, where it is both difficult to retain current drivers and challenging to attract new ones. nullrther nullmore, there is a push towards increasing energy effinullciency driven by both fuel prices and tightening of emisnullsion norms for trucks. Toxic emission regulations nullnullx, Cnulland particulate matternullare already extremely strict at ultralow levels in nullorth nullerica and the European Union, and the focus is now shifting towards carbon dinulloxide emissions. The United States and China have alnullready introduced fuelnullefficiency targets and the Europenullan Commission is working on a law for Cnullnullemission standards. nullnumber of technological trends will address all of these issues and bring about fundamental change in the trucking industry. nulln the next section we examine adnullvances in automation, electrification and digitalinulltion. null so doing, we choose to focus mainly on the US market as it leads the way in terms of changes due to its geogranullphy and the resulting positive business cases nullchanges that will then spread to the rest of the world.Trucking is the leading freight transporta- tion mode in the United States, Europe and China today. The indus- try currently faces several challenges in all three markets.1. Key challenges for the trucking industry today Demand is strong but the industry must address issues such as inefficiency, driver shortages and tighter regulation. Three technological trends nullautomation, electrification and digitalinulltion nullare set to fundamentally change the trucking industry. nulldeed, we can already observe the first fruit of these technological developments today. Several demonstrator pronullcts for automated trucks are already ongoing. nullor example, the startup Embark has been operating automated trucks on the nullnull freeway be nulltween El nullso, Texas and nulllm Springs, California since the end of nullnull. nullkewise, Chinanullased autonomous truck technology startup TuSimple is testing a selfnulldrivnulling truck fleet at a deepwater port in a northern Chinese city. Established truck nullnull are also moving fast to nullwards higher levels of automation, often in partnership with null solution providers.null the field of electrification there are multiple examples of technological advance taking hold, both from nullnull and startup companies. Telsa has announced a batterynullelectric seminullruck focused on short to midnullrange applications, with nullnullnull mi nullnullnullnull kmnull and nullnullnull mi nullnull kmnullrange options. The startup nullkola has an nullnounced a hydrogen fuel cell truck for longnullaul applica nulltions. Established nullnull also unveiled full electric medi nullumnullduty trucks for urban pickup and delivery and refuse as well as heavynullduty tractors for shortnullaul applications. null digitalinulltion we can already observe innovation in the freight booking space. Several freight booking platforms have emerged in recent years, both from startnullups such as Convoy and Uber, and from established trucking companies such as the null.B. nullnt nullnullplatform, Cnull nulleightview and nullnullConnect.Below, we examine each of these three areas from a technical point of view and look at some of the figures behind them.AUTOMATION DRIVERLESS TRUCKS WILL BECOME A REALITYThe technological roadmap for the development of aunulltomated trucks consists of a number of stages, with more and more responsibility handed over by the driver to the automation technology in each stage. null Stage null there is no automation and the driver is fully in control, the technology potentially providing him or her with warning signals. null Stage nullindividual functions are au nulltomatednull The driver can be nullfeet offnull thanks to cruise control or nullands offnullthanks to lane keep assist. nulle are currently moving from Stage nullto Stage null in which both systems run concurrently and the driver may be both feet off and hands off at the same time but must stay firmly focused on the road ahead. AStage null which lies in the future, is a transition phase. null this stage the vehicle has the technology to drive inde nullpendently but the driver needs to be able to take back control nulluickly if necessary or respond to a renulluest to innulltervene. null Stage nullthe driver does not have to monitor the road at all during automated mode. null easiernullonullavigate environments such as less crowded highway stretches, the truck could even operate without a driver. Stage nullis that of full automation, where trucks can operate without a driver in all conditions, including on service roads and in innernullcity traffic. nulle expect to see a fast progression from Stage nullto Stage null Stage nullwill likely be very shortnullnulllthough the technology complexity increases as the vehicle has the capability to drive autonomously, this does not lead to any incremental savings in operating costs as a driver is still renulluired at all times to be able to take back control of the vehicle nulluickly. nulldditional savings are only possinullble once Stage nullis reached and the vehicle can function without a driver, at least in certain environments such as on highways.nullere is the industry todaynullTruck nullnull and tech nullnology providers are currently rapidly moving into the automated trucking space. nullnull are working on ve nullhicles with Stage nulland Stage nullcapabilities. Startups such as Embark in the United States and TuSimple in China have exhibited initial Stage nullcapabilities with 2. New technologies Automation, electrification and digitalization will shake up the trucking industry. 4 Roland Berger Focus Shifting up a gear Shifting up a gear Roland Berger Focus 5plot, track and control appropriate routes to the vehinullclenull destination.Stage nullrenulluires highly complex technology and soft nullware algorithms, which means significant nullnullexpens nulles. By contrast, Stage nulldriverless trucks can be consid nullered a midnullerm opportunity in financial terms. nulle estimate the additional hardware cost for a Stage nulltruck to be approximately USnullnull,nullnullin nullnull, with the com nullputing platform and redundancy systems for braking, steering and energy supply being the largest items. The cost of sensors is expected to have come down signifinullcantly by this date, accounting for only about USnullnullnullnullper truck nullidar systems today cost about USnullnullnullnullnull down from USnullnull,nullnulla few years agonull The develop nullment cost for a Stage nulltruck, covering software develop nullment, prototypes and testing, is considerable, estimated around USnullnullnullbillion. Bnullvestments of this magnitude can likely only be car nullried out by large players such as global truck nullnull. The development cost share per truck depends strongly on the amortinulltion modelnullnulle estimate it at about USnullnullnullnullper vehicle for those nullnull that can reach a minimum scale of nullnullnullnullautomated units. null top of the material and development cost, nullnull will charge a margin. nulle consider an initial margin level of up to null percent probable, as competition will be limited in the early years and nullnull target price their applications, al nulllowing fleet customers to reach payback within the three years typically expected of such investments. null total, the incremental price of the technology in nullnull is an estimated USnullnull,nullnullper truck, about nullnullnullpercent above the pronullcted base vehicle price at that time. By around nullnull, when sufficient scale effects have been achieved and initial development costs have been amornulltinulld, the price may go down to about USnullnull,nullnullThe actual timing of when driverless trucks will apnullpear on our roads will not depend so much on the availnullability of the technology, but rather on legislation. Some Source: Roland BergerB: Stage 4 driverless trucks: a mid-term opportunityIncremental pricing of Stage 4 trucks vs. todays trucks USD 000aftermarket solutions in pilot applications. nullrtner nullships of these startups or nullnull with null solution provid nullers will accelerate the development of Stage nulland nullca nullpabilities. Specialinulld technology companies are also busy working on specific areas of automated vehicles, such as video safety technology, nextnullgeneration vision technologies, highnulldefinition mapping, deep learning, artificial intelligence and computing and processing technology nullStages nulland nullwill renulluire large amounts of data to be processed in the truck and thus rely on adnullvanced processing power. nullooking ahead, the development of automated trucks will go from confined environments such as harnullbors, terminals and mines, where automated trucks alnullready operate today nullnullo Tinto uses selfnulldriving trucks in its open pit mines in nulllbara, nullustralia, for example nullto unconfined environments, where conventional and automated vehicles will operate next to each other. This latter environment poses multiple technological chalnulllenges, and tech companies as well as nullEnulls are working on business models that allow operation of driverless trucks in seminullcontrolled environment with Stage null technology, before fully automated trucks become availnullable.The technology renulluired for a Stage nulldriverless truck is expected to be ready by the middle of the next decade. This includes numerous hardware and software components. Thus, sensors monitor the surroundings of the vehicle nullradar sensors keep track of traffic in front and to the sides while a front stereo camera adds redundancy and monitors the traffic in front. nullltiple nulldar systems create highnullesolution null environmental data. nullta from these sensors is th