欧洲的金融科技：机遇与挑战（英文版）.pdf

WP/20/241 Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats by Chikako Baba, Cristina Batog, Enrique Flores, Borja Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, James Roaf, Anna Shabunina, Rachel van Elkan, Xin Cindy Xu IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.2 IMF Working Paper European Department Fintech in Europe: Promises and Threats Prepared by Chikako Baba, Cristina Batog, Enrique Flores, Borja Gracia, Izabela Karpowicz, Piotr Kopyrski, James Roaf, Anna Shabunina, Rachel van Elkan, Xin Cindy Xu Authorized for distribution by Jrg Decressin November 2020 Abstract Europes high pre-existing level of financial development can partly account for the relatively smaller reach of fintech payment and lending activities compared to some other regions. But fintech activity is growing rapidly. Digital payment schemes are expanding within countries, although cross-border and pan-euro area instruments are not yet widespread, notwithstanding important enabling EU level regulation and the establishment of instant payments by the ECB. Automated lending models are developing but remain limited mainly to unsecured consumer lending. While start-ups are pursuing platform-based approaches under minimal regulation, there is a clear trend for fintech companies to acquire balance sheets and, relatedly, banking licenses as they expand. Meanwhile, competition is pushing many traditional banks to adopt fintech instruments, either in-house or by acquisition, thereby causing them to increasingly resemble balanced sheet-based fintech companies. These developments could improve the efficiency and reach of financial intermediation while also adding to profitability pressures for some banks. Although the COVID-19 pandemic could call into question the viability of platform-based lending fintechs funding models given that investors could face much higher delinquencies, it may also offer growth opportunities to those fintechs that are positioned to take advantage of the ongoing structural shift in demand toward virtual finance. JEL Classification Numbers: G20, G21, G23, G28, E42, O30 Keywords: Fintech, lending, payment system, European Union, Payments Directive, PSD2 Authors E-Mail Address: JRoafimf IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2020 International Monetary Fund WP/20/2413 Contents Page A. Traditional Card Scheme12 B. Fintech Payment Innovations.15 C. Payment Regulations.16 A. Business Models in Fintech Lending.19 B. Lending Regulation.24 BOXES 1. From Cash to Cards: The Case of the Netherlands8 2. Instant Payments in Europe.14 3. Fintech Payments in Poland: The Experience of BLIK.16 4. Mintos-A P2P Lending Platform.23 FIGURES 1. Global Outlook on Financial Development.4 2. Fintech-Enabling Environment.6 3. Financial Ecosystem Enabling Fintech10 TABLES 1. Top 10 Fintech Companies in the World Based on Total Funding.11 2. Fintech Lending Models.22 3. National Laws and Regulations for Crowdfunding or Peer-to-Peer Lending.33 4. Selected Features of Dedicated Fintech Credit Policy Framework.33 ANNEXES I. Interchange Fee Regulation: EU vs US31 II. Security Requirements Under PSD II.32 III. National Regulation for Crowdfunding and Selected Features of Dedicated Fintech Credit Policy Frameworks.33 References344 OVERVIEW 1. What aspects of fintech does this paper cover? While there are numerous definitions of fintech, the IMF/World Bank Bali Fintech Agenda defines it as advances in technology that have the potential to transform the provision of financial services spurring new business models, applications, processes and products. 1 Thus fintech covers a broad range of activities, including new areas such as crypto-currencies and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for fraud detection, as well as innovation in more traditional financial services. This paper looks at fintech payment and lending activities, their regulation and their potential impact on existing banks within the European context. Digital currencies and other types of fintech activities, such as insurance and asset management, are not considered. 2. The emergence of fintech in Europe comes against a backdrop of already high levels of financial development compared to other regions (Figure 1). The financial development index, which ranks countries along several dimensions including depth, access and efficiency of financial institutions and markets, shows that Europe is a global leader in the development of both financial institutions and financial markets. 2 The average country in Europe has a similar level of financial development as the best performers in Latin America and the Middle East, while the least developed country in Europe is at par with the average country in Africa. Similarly, the level of financial inclusion, measured by the availability of automated teller machines and bank deposit accounts, is notably higher in Europe than elsewhere. Figure 1. Global Outlook on Financial Development Europe leads other regions in financial development . with large gaps. 1 In this paper we also refer to “fintechs” as shorthand for companies that implement these solutions. For a broader discussion of the definition of fintech see Schueffel (2016). 2 The index, developed by Sahay and others (2015), measures the development of financial institutions and financial markets in terms of their depth (size and liquidity), access (ability of individuals and companies to access financial services), and efficiency (ability of institutions to provide financial services at low cost and with sustainable revenues and the level of activity of capital markets). 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Total Institutions Markets Europe Western Hemisphere Asia and Pacific Middle East and Central Asia Africa Financial Development Index by Region, 2018 (Index from 0 (lowest) to 1 (highest) Source: IMF Financial Development Index Database. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 CHE GBR ESP FRA ITA SWE LUX DEU NLD FIN PRT IRL DNK BEL NOR AUT ISR MLT CYP TUR GRC HRV RUS ISL CZE POL HUN BGR SVN SVK ROU EST BIH LVA SRB LTU MDA UKR ALB BLR WHD APD MCD AFR Financial Development Index, 2018 (Index from 0 (lowest) to 1 (highest) Source: IMF Financial Development Index Database. Europe Average5 The financial system is dominated by banks. Access to financial services is not a major concern. Mobile money accounts are not widely used .and their transactions value is low. 3. Overall, fintech activities are less developed in Europe than in other regions (Figure 2). 3 Europe is among the least developed regions in terms of mobile money penetration and significantly lags Asia-Pacific and North America in fintech lending. None of the Big-tech companies, which currently dominate the global fintech landscape, originated in Europe, and Bigtech lending lags far behind the global front-runners even though Europe leads in internet coverage. 4 Until the COVID-19 pandemic, new venture capital fintech investments in Europe have been growing rapidly, but the gap with the frontier region of North America remains very large. 3 As with all studies on fintech, availability of comprehensive and cross-country and region comparable data is a severe constraint. No comprehensive source for fintech data is available reflecting numerous technical and legal impediments to compilation. Data is fragmented and must be gathered from multiple providers. In Europe, localization laws prevent granular dissemination, while official statistical data compilers do not collect or report comprehensive information on fintech activities. 4 See Financial Stability Board (2019). Chinas most successful fintechs are under the umbrella of BigTech companies (JD, Alibaba, Tencent), in contrast to North America and Europe. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2006 2010 2014 2018 2006 2010 2014 2018 2006 2010 2014 2018 2006 2010 2014 2018 2006 2010 2014 2018 Europe Middle East and Central Asia Asia-Pacific Western Hemisphere Africa Deposit accounts with commercial banks per 1,000 adults (lhs) Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults (rhs) Financial Inclusion (Regional average) Sources: IMF Financial Access Survey Database. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Financial services are too expensive Financial institutions are too far away Lack of necessary documentation Reasons for not Having a Financial Account, 2017 (Percent of population over 15 years old) Sources: Global Findex 2017, World Bank; and IMF Staff calculations. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Europe Western Hemisphere Asia and Pacific Middle East and Central Asia Africa Deposit accounts with commercial banks Registered mobile money accounts Deposit and Mobile Money Accounts, 2018 (Per 1,000 people, simple averages) Sources: IMF Financial Access Survey; and IMF Staff calculations. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Europe Western Hemisphere Middle East and Central Asia Asia and Pacific Africa Mobile Money Transactions, 2018 (Percent of GDP, simple averages) Sources: IMF Financial Access Survey; and IMF Staff calculations6 Figure 2. Fintech-Enabling Environment Fintech lending in Europe is less developed. and Bigtech lending lags far behind global frontrunners. Despite that, Europe leads the rest of the world in internet coverage .and is among the leaders in the global innovation index. Digital payments in Europe are much higher than other regions. while new Fintech investment is also catching up. 4. The extensive network of formal financial service providers in Europe helps account for the lower penetration of certain fintech services. In parts of the world where a large share of the population is excluded from the formal financial sector, fintech services such as mobile money accounts have proliferated, possibly reflecting lower infrastructure and China UK USA 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Income per capita (USD) Fintech lending (USD million) Fintech Lending and Income per Capita, 2019 (USD, log scale) Sources: G. Cornelli, J. Frost, L. Gambacorta, R. Rau, R. Wardrop and T. Ziegler (2020), Fintech and big tech credit: a new database; and IMF WEO database. Europe Western Hemisphere Asia and Pacific Middle East and Central Asia Africa Argentina Brazil Cte dIvoire China Egypt France UK Ghana Indonesia India Japan Kenya Cambodia S. Korea Morocco Myanmar Mexico Malaysia Nigeria Philippines Pakistan Russia Rwanda Singapore Thailand Tanzania Uganda USA Vietnam S. Africa Zambia 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Income per capita (USD) Bigtech lending (USD million) Bigtech Lending and Income per Capita, 2019 (USD, log scale) Sources: G. Cornelli, J. Frost, L. Gambacorta, R. Rau, R. Wardrop and T. Ziegler (2020), Fintech and big tech credit: a new database; and IMF WEO database. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Internet Users (Percent of population) Sources: World Bank WDI database; and IMF Staff calculations. Western Hemisphere Europe Asia-Pacific Africa Middle East and Central Asia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Switzerland Sweden United States United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Finland Singapore Germany South Korea Hong Kong, China France Israel China Ireland Japan Canada Luxembourg Austria Norway Top 20 Global Leaders in Innovation, 2020 (Score: 0 (lowest) - 100 (highest) Source: The Global Innovation Index 2020: Who Will Finance Innovation?, Cornell University, INSEAD, and WIPO (2020). 0 20 40 60 80 100 Africa Middle East and Central Asia Asia-Pacific Western Hemisphere Europe Made or Recieved Digital Payments in 2017 (Percent of population aged 15+) Sources: Global Findex 2017, World Bank; and IMF Staff calculations. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Investment Activity in Fintech (USD billions, includes VC, PE and M and Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance. 0 50 100 150 200 250 North America East Asia and Pacific World Europe and Central Asia European Union Middle East and North Africa Latin America and Caribbean South Asia Africa Bank Credit to Private Sector, 2019 (Percent of GDP) Middle East and North Africa and Africa data as of 2018. Source: World Bank WDI database. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 UK France Germany Netherlands Italy Finland Sweden Georgia Spain Poland Ireland Latvia Belgium Estonia Switzerland Lithuania Denamark Austria Russia Czech Republic Slovenia Norway Bulgaria Romania Slovakia Portugal Alternative Finance Volume by Country, 2017 (Euro Millions) Source: The 4 th European Alternative Finance Industry Report,Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance, 2019. United Kingdom: 7.06 billion 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 UK Estonia Latvia Georgia Finland Ireland Lithuania Sweden Netherlands France Switzerland Belgium Denmark Germany Slovenia Italy Poland Austria Spain Czech Republic Norway Liechtenstein Source: The 4 th European Alternative Finance Industry Report,Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance, 2019. Market Volume Per Capita by Country, 2017 (Euro11 they have already entered the European markets. Amazon (since 2010, Luxemburg), Facebook (since 2016, Ireland), Google (since 2018, Lithuania), and Alipay (since 2018, Luxembourg) are operating under both payment and electronic money licenses. Table 1. Top 10 Fintech Companies in the World Based on Total Funding Fintech company Country of Incorporation Associated Bigtech Group Ant Financial China Alibaba JD Digits China JD Du Xiaoman Financial China Baidu One97 India Alibaba QNB Group Qatar n.a. L China n.a. SoFi United States n.a. Kabbage United States n.a. Robinhood United States n.a. Greensill Capital United Kingdom n.a. Source: CrunchBase, as of September 11, 2020. Note: Ranking based on amount of funding raised. 11. The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing behavioral changes pose challenges and opportunities for the fintech sector. The pandemic has rapidly accelerated the structural shift toward fully digital solutions, thereby boosting demand for virtual financial services. Social distancing means more goods are being purchased on-line paid for with digital payment instruments. Demand for digital lending services has been boosted by pandemic- induced liquidity pressures among firms and households and the widespread use of government guaranteed lending programs. Fintechs operating in the payment area may be well placed to take advantage of these changes as consumer habits rotate away from cash and brick-and-mortar PoS. At the same time, platform-based fintech companies that rely on secondary markets to fund