Z世代在塑造数字经济中的作用（英文版）.pdf

MARCH 2021 GEN ZS ROLE IN SHAPING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY1 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 1. Introduction 10 2. Who is Gen Z? 12 2.1 Gen Z will mature into an engine of growth 14 2.2 Characteristics of Gen Z 14 3. Technology and the labour market 18 3.1 The changing face of automation 19 3.2 Digital society and the labour market over the past decade 21 4. Implications of COVID-19 for Gen Z 24 4.1 The immediate economic impact of COVID-19 25 4.2 Recessions and young workers 26 4.3 The structural implications of COVID-19 26 5. How Augmented Reality is changing our future 32 5.1 ARs emerging role as an engine for change 33 5.2 ARs steep growth potential 34 5.3 Which skills will be key to thriving in the AR-enabled workplace? 38 6. A blueprint for the future 402 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy FOREWORD We believe that this generation of young people will play a vital role in driving the post- pandemic recovery and digital economy and find many reasons to be optimistic about their future. We know this runs contrary to popular opinion. It is abundantly clear the pandemic has exacerbated many of the challenges this generation faces. Their education has been disrupted, university courses have been postponed and theyve had to struggle through disjointed, remote learning. There is a shrinking pool of entry-level jobs and uncertainty about what the future of work will look like. They are missing out on interaction with other young people for months at a time and there are concerns about the impact on their mental health and wellbeing. All of this has led to the commonly held view that the future for Generation COVID is likely to be much more challenging than for previous generations. While for now the pandemic has arguably disrupted this group more than any other, we are inspired by the world that they are trying to create and our experience at Snap is at odds with the prevailing narrative. All the time we see the ingenuity and huge potential of Generation Z from our youngest colleagues to people who use the platform every day their approach to challenges and problem-solving, their creativity, adaptability and drive to use technology for good, is an inspiration. At Snap, we see a hugely activist generation who care deeply about the world they live in and the impact of their actions on others. A group who thrive on disruption, change and fast-paced living; who dont believe in one- size-fits-all approaches on everything from gender identity to learning and careers. And, as were seeing around the world, they are also an increasingly positive force in our democratic systems; it was youth-led movements which drove mass action on the climate crisis and which, last summer, held corporations and institutions to account on issues such as diversity, representation and inequality. For this report we have partnered with Oxford Economics, to reach behind the negative headlines and build an evidence-based view of what the future looks like for young people today. We have included insights from policy experts across education, industry, the labour market, technology creativity; curiosity; and digital competence. AUGMENTED REALITY: A TECHNOLOGY THAT WILL EXEMPLIFY THIS STORY Augmented Reality (AR) technology has the potential to symbolise this process. It allows digital content and information to be overlaid on the physical world. Although its initial applications predominantly lay in the world of entertainment, it has increasingly become a tool for change among more innovative businesses, a trend that has been accelerated by the pandemic. Market research studies highlight the enormous potential of AR, with the market projected to expand four-fold by 2023. Longer-term, a combination of enablers seem can be expected to underpin a continued steep growth trajectory for which would see AR become a mainstream aspect of the workplace: Revolutionising retail: one key driver for the pick-up in AR adoption over the past 12 months has been consumer brands leveraging the technology to replicate parts of the in- store experience. ARs expansion into this burgeoning market can be an important pillar of growth for the next decade. Widespread business utility: as we demonstrate in this report, ARs applications extend well beyond e-commerce with companies, from agriculture to education, already deriving utility from the technology across multiple business functions. 5G-enhanced: the rollout of the next generation of mobile communication technology will substantially improve 5G utility, facilitating richer and more immersive experiences on the go. Low adoption barriers: with many applications available by a Web Browser or smartphone App, consumers have near- universal access to AR experiences and, in contrast to VR, need not invest in additional equipment. Transforming marketing strategy: AR offers a unique platform to engage with customers, in a style that resonates and helps to build an emotional connection. Taken together with the above drivers, this will be increasingly achieved at scale, a potent mix for marketing and brand building. Moreover, as the leading users of open source AR platforms such as Lens Studio, this cohort have a much stronger natural affinity with this technology, a point confirmed by our analysis. Gen Zs average AR competence score was 17% higher than Millennials and 34% higher than Gen X8 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy A BLUEPRINT FOR THE FUTURE Our research has struck a relatively optimistic tone. Clearly though the pandemic, together with the next wave of technological change, will create major challenges for society. Supported by discussions with a range of experts, we have generated a call to action centred around the five themes set out below. More specific recommendations around each theme can be found in section six of this document. Plugging the educational attainment gap: the disruption to Gen Zs formal education represents COVID-19s biggest structural threat to their this cohorts prosperity action to correct this associated attainment gap is urgently required. Supporting economic recovery whilst not impeding structural adjustment: policymakers face a delicate balancing act in the near-term in trying to minimise labour market scarring. Timing the transition from employment- protection to hiring incentive and re-skilling- based programmes will be crucial. Maximising the potential of digital technology to meet the re-skilling challenge: despite being the root cause of the problem, digital technology can be fundamental to the solution. AR, massive open online courses (MOOCs), and crowd-based tools can become important contributors to re-skilling. Achieving a mindset shift around lifelong learning: according to survey data, a majority of adults across the OECD do not want to engage in further training. There is no silver bullet to achieving a substantial shift in this mindset but governments can assist and section six identifies a set of principles which should inform policy design. Refitting education to the new Industrial age: more broadly, without reform, the formal education system will become increasingly out-of-step with the workplace. Structural reform that promotes problem-based learning, student agency and reduces the emphasis on standardised testing is required.9 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy10 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy 1. INTRODUCTION The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020, and the deep global recession triggered by measures to contain its spread, have had a hugely detrimental impact on society. The downturn has been notable for its unevenness, landing disproportionately on industries which rely on social contact such as hospitality, live entertainment, and physical non-essential retail. This has led to concerns that the economic impact will land heavily on younger workers, who were more reliant on these sectors for jobs coming into the crisis. Moreover, it will certainly be more difficult for new graduates to secure 4 Monica, Joyce, Robert and Norris Keeiller, Agnes Costa Dias, “COVID-19 and the career prospects of young people” (Briefing Note, Institute for Fiscal Studies, July 2020). roles in an environment where the economy is operating well below full capacity. The fear is that they will suffer from what economists call “scarring”persistent negative impacts on their potential earnings power and future employmentprospects. 4 However, all this discussion neglects the role of COVID-19 as a disruptor and digital accelerant. When evaluating the long-term implications of any event for a group in the labour market, understanding such structural effects is key. Moreover, judging by past recessions, 2020 is also likely to bring forward the latest wave of automation technologies. To create a more rounded picture, this study has investigated how these trends will affect demand for skills and how they match up to the relative attributes of Gen Z. This has involved a multi-pronged research programme (described below) focused around six markets: Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. For the purpose of this report, we have considered them as a collective. At times, we refer to the aggregate evidence pooled across these six countries as global but would, of course, acknowledge that the findings should only be generalised to other high- income economies. HOW HAVE WE DONE THIS? The question we have sought to address is challenging and complex. As such, we have called upon evidence from a wide variety of sources as part of work, including: Job postings data purchased from Burning Glass (BG) covering the period between 2014 and 2019. A consumer survey of individuals across all six markets in scope. Quota sampling was used to ensure a broadly even mix between different generations, defined as those aged 16 to 24 (Gen Z), 25 to 39 (Millennials), and 40 to 55 (Gen X). Interviews with 13 AR experts working across the markets in our study. Web scraping techniques to help collect information on the current size and economic contribution of the AR sector globally. Desk-based research including a literature review and the collection of official data to help support and validate our propositions which lie outside the scope of the above. Discussions with experts from various fields including economics, education, skills, and industrial policy. These have informed our calls to action. The objective of this report is to document the major findings and draw out the most salient implications of our research. As such, we have only provided light methodological detail across the report. However, a comprehensive methodology report can also be found online for interested readers.11 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy12 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy 2. WHO IS GEN Z? Gen Z is generally described as those born between the mid-1990s and 2010. Recent estimates have suggested that they are now the largest generational cohort on earth, accounting for almost one- third of the global population in 2019. Across the six markets covered in our study, Gen Zs population share is much lower, but they still numbered some 106 million in 2019. Gen Z is the first wholly digitally native generation those brought up from birth to use digital technologies and social platforms as the primary means of communication, entertainment, and consumption. They have increasingly attracted the attention of researchers, as they start to mature into the workforce. This chapter explores how this cohort is set to become a driving force of the economy and describes the attitudes and characteristics which set them apart from preceding generations. OVERVIEW Gen Z is the first wholly digitally native generational cohort. Reflecting their youth most of this cohort are on the periphery of the labour market but this is set to change. Our projections across the six markets imply that those in-work will triple to almost 90 million by 2030. As they gain more experience, knowledge, and skills and transition increasingly to full-time work, the average earnings of this group will grow by 250% in real terms. This will drive a massive uplift in their independent disposable income which we expect to hit $3.2 trillion by 2030 equivalent to 11% of these economies total. Gen Z display a higher level of digital competence compared to older cohorts who currently dominate the workforce, stemming from being more accomplished in the areas of content creation, communication, and understanding of lenses and filters. Gen Zs attributes seem ideally tailored to a post-pandemic work environment that will be more digitally charged and dynamic. Their agility, curiosity, and creativity are traits that seem set to be in demand in future workplace13 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy Their consumer spending will increase more than six-fold, from $467 billion in 2019 to $3.0 trillion in 2030. This is equivalent to 11% of total household spending. Gen Zs share of total employment will nearly treble over the next ten years. Gen Z incomes will increase almost seven-fold by 2030. Gen Z show higher levels of digital competence than their elders. (index, global average = 100) 1996 2010 FUTURE POWERHOUSE OF THE GLOBAL WORKFORCE KEY DRIVER OF INCOME GROWTH HIGH LEVELS OF DIGITAL COMPETENCE 2019 28 million/ 10% 87 million/ 30% 2030 14.8% 12.8% 10.6% 9.8% 7.1% 8.0% 35.3% 32.0% Netherlands United States France Germany United Kingdom Australia 31.1% 29.1% 26.0% 24.0% GEN Z WILL MATURE INTO ENGINE OF GROWTH 1624 2539 4055 104.1 101.6 96.114 Gen Zs role in shaping the digital economy 2.1 GEN Z WILL MATURE INTO AN ENGINE OF GROWTH As the majority of our Gen Z cohort join the workforce, our forecasts imply that the number of Gen Z in employment will more than treble to 87 million people by 2030 in the six markets This means that Gen Z are forecast to account for 30% of total employment in 2030, up from just over 10% in 2019. With greater experience, knowledge and skills will also come greater earnings power. Indeed, workers, on average, enjoy faster wage growth during the early years of their career. Based on past trends and projected macroeconomic changes, we expect the average earnings of Gen Z to increase by almost 250% by 2030 to over $42,000. Putting these trends in employment and earnings together, the forecasts show that Gen Zs income from work will balloon from $440 billion to more than $3.5 trillion by 2030. To put this in context, their share of economy-wide earnings will rise from less than 3% in 2019 to 20% in 2030. Even after paying tax on their incomes, Gen Z will have a disposable income of $3.2 trillion in 2030, seven times the $460 billion in 2019. Accounting for the likely savings that Gen Z workers will make, their total consumer spending will be $3.0 trillion equivalent to 11% of total household spending across the