2020年Q4香港工业地产市场展望（英文版）.pdf

MARKETVIEW Hong Kongs trade performance improved in Q4 2020 despite a resurgence in COVID-19 infections in many major economies. However, leasing momentum in the industrial property market remained limited. Cost-saving was the main driver of new leases signed during the quarter. Demand was led by e-commerce platforms and healthcare-related occupiers. Warehouse vacancy fell by 0.6% points q- o-q to end the year at 3.6%. However, space availability may rise in the early months of 2021. Overall warehouse rents edged down by 0.4% q-o-q, bringing the full year decline to 6.8%, the sharpest annual fall since 2002. Although U.S.-China trade conflict and the U.S.s restrictions on Hong Kong- made goods will likely persist into 2021, the trading environment is expected to improve over the course of the year. Chinas new “dual circulation” economic strategy and the recent establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will also support the growth of trade in the medium-term. Q4 2020 CBRE Research 1 Leasing demand remains limited but pace of rental decline eases -0.9% q-o-q -0.4% q-o-q Hong Kong Industrial, Q4 2020 -0.7% q-o-q 2020 CBRE, Inc. MARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 2 HONG KONG INDUSTRIAL Figure 1: Economic trade volume Source: CBRE Research, Census and Statistics Department, Q4 2020. Figure 2: Container and air cargo throughput Source: Marine Department, Civil Aviation Department, Q4 2020. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Warehouse Flatted Factories I/O Index (Q1 2000 = 100) Figure 3: Rental Index Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020. 2020 CBRE, Inc. | -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Merchandise Imports Merchandise Exports Y-o-Y change (%) *October and November combined 200 300 400 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Container Throughput Air Cargo Throughput Air Cargo (000 Tonnes) Container (000 TEUsMARKETVIEW Q4 2020 CBRE Research 3 Outlook HONG KONG INDUSTRIAL 2020 CBRE, Inc. | Figure 4: Selected leasing transactions in Q4 2020 Property Location Type Size (GFA sq. ft.) Indicative Rental (HK$/sq. ft./mth) User 3/F & 8/F, Tuen Mun Distribution Centre Block 2 Tuen Mun Warehouse 57,040 $10.3 Logistics 1/F, Airport Freight Forwarding Centre Chek Lap Kok Warehouse 48,348 $15.5 Logistics Unit 2 on 6/F, Asia Logistics Hub SF Centre Tsing Yi Warehouse 44,173 $15 Trading 6/F, Shield Industrial Centre Tsuen Mun Warehouse 42,249 $8 Trading Unit A-B on 14/F, Gateway ts Tsing Yi Warehouse 39,000 $12 Retail Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2020 Figure 5: Selected sales transactions in Q4 2020 Property Location Type Floor Size (GFA sq. ft.) Price (HK$ mil) Price (per sq. ft.) En-bloc, Hang Fat Industrial Building Cheung Sha Wan Factory En-bloc 202,034 965 5,078 En-bloc, Ideal Plaza Tsuen Wan Factory En-bloc 65,062 310 3,501 En-bloc, United Daily News Centre To Kwa Wan Factory En-bloc 14,255 310 4,954 15/F-16/F including roof top, 46 Tsun Yip Street Kwun Tong Factory Multiple Floors 12,402 116 10,741 Various units in Sino Industrial Building Kwun Tong Factory Multiple Units 18,694 68 3,663MARKETVIEW Map of major Hong Kong industrial areas Kwun Tong A former industrial precinct gradually transforming into a decentralised office node, the area still holds a considerable share of Hong Kongs industrial stock, particularly in the I/O sector (36%) given the industrial cum commercial nature. The area is also home to about 7% of total warehouse space and 18% of factory stock in Hong Kong. Kwai Tsing/Tsuen Wan As the area is in proximity to the Container Terminals in Kwai Chung and Tsing Yi, as well as strategically linked to the Hong Kong International Airport by the Tsing Ma Bridge, many logistics players opt to cluster in the area to benefit from its convenient access to these facilities. As a result, about 57% of Hong Kongs warehouse space is found in the Kwai Tsing and Tsuen Wan districts. In addition, about 21% of I/O space and 33% of its factory stock are located in these districts. Tuen Mun As the River Trade Terminal is near the area, this traditional industrial district is also popular among Hong Kongs logistics players. Currently, the district holds about 3.8% of Hong Kongs warehouse space while some 8.6% of the SARs factory stock is located in the area. This area shows strong growth potential. which will to a large extent be driven by the opening of the Stone Cutters Bridge. This location will benefit from further strengthening of ties between Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta, and related opening up activities. Yuen Long Yuen Longs share of the industrial property stock within Hong Kong is limited to about 3.4% of the total warehouse stock and 1.2% of the total factory space. However, the area is gaining wider market acceptance from logistics users who value its easy access to the Hong Kong landing point of the Deep Bay Link. The Deep Bay Link, opened in July 2007, is the fourth vehicular access link connecting Hong Kong to Shenzhen within the Pearl River Delta. This location will benefit from further strengthening of HK- PRD related opening up. Sha Tin This area has traditionally been an important logistics hub in terms of rail-based cargo shipment in addition to its role as Hong Kongs major precinct for manufacturing activities. Currently, about 11.8% of Hong Kongs warehouse stock, 3% of its I/O stock and 6.6% of its factory stock are located in Sha Tin. It is also proving to be a popular location for users coming out of Kowloon East. Q4 2020 CBRE Research 4 HONG KONG INDUSTRIAL 2020 CBRE, Inc. MARKETVIEW Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. CONTACTS HONG KONG INDUSTRIAL Industrial property definitions Warehouse: This category comprises premises designed or adapted for use as godowns or cold stores and includes ancillary offices. Premises located within the container terminals are also included. About 82% of the stock is located in the New Territories, with Kwai Tsing/Tsuen Wan alone accounting for circa 57%. Industrial/Office (I/O): This category comprises floor space in developments with planning permission and lease modification for industrial/office use and certified for occupation as such. The stock is distributed in 11 districts throughout the territory, with Kwun Tong, Shum Shui Po and Kwai Tsing, accounting for about 75% of the total floor space. Factory: This category comprises flatted factories and ancillary office accommodations. It includes flatted factory space that has received planning permission for industrial/office use but has not yet completed the government lease modification. Also included in this category is strata-title floor space with temporary planning permission for industrial/office use and short- term waivers of government lease restrictions. The majority of the stock is found in four districts of Hong Kong, namely Kwun Tong, Tsuen Wan, Kwai Tsing and Tuen Mun, which account for 60% of the total supply. All monetary values are presented in Hong Kong dollars unless otherwise specified. CBRE HONG KONG OFFICES