2020农产品市场状况（英文版）.pdf

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS THE STATE OF AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS, SMALLHOLDER FARMERS AND DIGITAL INNOVATIONS VIET NAM. A woman selling tropical fruits in the old town of Hoi An city. COVER PHOTOGRAPH iS This flagship publication is part of THE STATE OF THE WORLD series of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Required citation: FAO. 2020. The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2020. Agricultural markets and sustainable development: Global value chains, smallholder farmers and digital innovations. Rome, FAO. doi/10.4060/cb0665en The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers. ISSN 2663-8207 (PRINT) ISSN 2663-8215 (ONLINE) ISBN 978-92-5-133171-2 FAO 2020 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; creativecommons/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo). Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited. In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services. The use of the FAO logo is not permitted. If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons licence. If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation. The original English edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Any mediation relating to disputes arising under the licence shall be conducted in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) as at present in force. Third-party materials. Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user. Sales, rights and licensing. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (fao/publications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfao. Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: fao/contact-us/licence-request. Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: copyrightfao. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, 2020 ISSN 2663-8207 2020 AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS, SMALLHOLDER FARMERS AND DIGITAL INNOVATIONS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS THE STATE OF FOREWORD v METHODOLOGY vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS vii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix PART 1 TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD MARKETS 1 Recent trends in agricultural and food trade 2 Drivers of global trade 9 Agricultural and food markets transformation 22 PART 2 GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 31 Evolution of agricultural and food global value chains 33 GVC participation and economic growth 41 Policies to promote GVC participation 44 GVC links with sustainable development: environmental, social and health outcomes 54 Global value chains, standards and competition issues 58 PART 3 FARMERS AND VALUE CHAINS: BUSINESS MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH 65 Sustainable agricultural development and markets 66 Market participation in the context of developing countries 67 Contract farming 77 Innovations in inclusive contract farming models 84 Farmers integration in sustainable value chains 89 PART 4 DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES AND AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD MARKETS 97 The digital divide 100 The digitalization of agriculture 104 Digital technologies and market failures 106 CONTENTS | ii | Applying distributed ledger technology to agrifood value chains 112 Open questions and potential risks for agricultural and food markets 122 ANNEX 127 NOTES 129 TABLES 3.1 Contract farming studies reviewed in this report 80 A.1 Definition of food aggregates as used in Part1, trade by food aggregates 127 A.2 Definition of food aggregates based on FAO Food Balance Sheets 128 FIGURES 1.1 Evolution of agrifood trade, 19952018 (countries classified in groups by income level) 3 1.2 Trade in food and agricultural commodities 4 1.3 Shares of intraregional and interregional trade 5 1.4 Change in exports and imports by food aggregate, 19952018 (countries classified in groups by income level) 7 1.5 Share of exports of selected food aggregates in total agrifood exports, average 20162018 8 1.6 Import dependency for selected food aggregates, average 20152017 10 1.7 Agricultural exports and imports: Brazil, VietNam, Nepal and Uganda by food aggregate 11 1.8 Income dynamics and growth in food consumption (countries classified in groups by income level) 12 The proportion of undernourished people in the total population is the indicator known as prevalence of undernourishment (PoU). See Annexes 2 and 3 of this report for further details. Ecullentem facerrum quam, quatet occus acepro modit quibus autat laut omnihitias sitat. NOTES BORIA VOLOREIUM, SIT AUT QUIS DOLORITI CONECTUS, SEQUE 1.9 Average change in the share of calories available for consumption per capita by main food aggregates, 19952017 (percent) 13 1.10 Population growth and demographic changes 18 1.11 Trade and communication costs 19 1.12 Agricultural applied tariff rates, 19952018 (countries classified in groups by income level) 21 1.13 Stylized food value chain 27 1.14 Share of value added of agriculture and of food in total agrifood value added by income, 2017 27 2.1 Gross exports at global level and GVC participation, 19952015 36 2.2 GVC participation rates in agriculture in 2015 37 2.3 Forward and backward GVC linkages in 2015 (countries classified in groups by income level) 38 2.4 Gross exports and GVC participation in Ghana 39 2.5 Gross exports and GVC participation in VietNam 40 2.6 Relationship between growth in value added and growth in GVC participation between 1995 and 2015 (countries classified in groups by income level) 42 2.7 Effect of a 1 percent change in GVC participation on agricultural value added per worker 43 2.8 Projected effects of removing different policy measures on gross agrifood exports, percent changes 45 2.9 Projected effects of opening to trade on exported agrifood value added by production factor, percent changes 46 2.10 Projected effects of opening to trade on GVC participation, percent changes 48 | iii | 2.11 Projected effects of opening to trade on directly and indirectly exported agricultural and food value added 52 2.12 Importance of food processing for employment West Africa and selected countries (share in total manufacturing sector labour) 53 2.13 The degree of seed market concentration varies by crop and region 62 3.1 Structural transformation across countries: GDP share of agriculture and GDP per capita, 2017 68 3.2 Market participation: Average share of household production sold in markets inGhana, Malawi, Uganda and Viet Nam 69 3.3 Average household sales revenue over total household income in Ghana, Malawi, Uganda and Viet Nam, percent 70 3.4 Share of household production sold in markets across the farm size distribution in Ghana, Malawi, Uganda and Viet Nam, quintiles 71 3.5 Average total household income by gender of household head (USD, valued at 2011 prices) 72 3.6 Average household sales revenue over total household income by gender ofhousehold head, percent 73 3.7 Evolution of average farm size, hectares 75 3.8 Contract farming incentives sets 79 3.9 Sustainability certification schemes: Standards and potential outcomes 92 4.1 Global subscriptions to fixed and mobile telephones, and fixed and mobile broadband, 20052019 (per 100 people) 100 4.2 Mobile cellular access in selected countries, 2018 101 4.3 Individuals using the internet, percent of population 102 4.4 Individuals using the internet in selected countries by gender and location, 2018 (percent) 103 CONTENTS 4.5 Ratio of data and voice mobile broadband subscriptions over population for selected countries, 2018 104 4.6 Enabling the business of agriculture ICT score 105 4.7 Illustration of a blockchain example in an agrifood value chain 116 BOXES 1.1 Regional agrifood trade 5 1.2 The impacts of the COVID19 pandemic on global trade, markets and food security 16 1.3 Trade, food safety and the Codex Alimentarius 23 1.4 Vertical integration and coordination in value chains 26 1.5 Globalization, agrifood trade and nutrition 28 2.1 Global value chains: Key terminology 34 2.2 Global value chain in action: Orange juice from the tree to the bottle 35 2.3 Example of a country with uneven GVC linkages: Ghana 39 2.4 Example of a country with strong GVC linkages: Viet Nam 40 2.5 Analysing policies to promote GVC participation: Effects by policy measure and returns to land, labour and capital 45 2.6 The role of Regional Trade Agreements 49 2.7 Trade policy responses to the COVID19 pandemic 50 2.8 Emerging food processing sectors in developing countries 53 2.9 Global value chains, private sector action and environmental outcomes 55 2.10 Policies aimed at reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity: Taxes in Mexico and labelling in Chile 59 3.1 How wellfunctioning markets contribute to development 68 3.2 Rural small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) in food and agriculture 76 3.3 Bundling insurance in contract farming schemes 86 3.4 Price guarantee and rice contract farming in Benin: A randomized control trial of different contract provisions 87 3.5 Product quality differentiation in coffee contract farming 88 4.1 Digital technology glossary 99 4.2 Digital innovation for crosscutting benefits: the cases of eChoupal in India and Esoko in Ghana 108 4.3 Ecommerce and the case of the Taobao villages in the Peoples Republic of China 110 4.4 Tulaa: A digital platform facilitating access to credit in Kenya and Ghana 111 4.5 Weather indexbased agricultural insurance: Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (ACRE) 113 4.6 Understanding distributed ledger technology 114 4.7 Blockchain and international commodity trading 115 4.8 Supporting smallholder farmers access to markets and financial services through blockchain 117 4.9 Blockchain application for smallholder weather indexbased insurance 118 4.10 Supermarkets exploring blockchains 119 4.11 Tracing spices and herbs using blockchain technology 120 4.12 Blockchain technology and sustainable fish value chains 121 4.13 The Global Forum for Food and Agriculture and the International Platform for Digital Food and Agriculture 124 | iv | FOREWORD The 2020 edition of The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO 2020) comes out at a crucial juncture for the global economy and the global food systems, as we join our efforts to contain the global pandemic triggered by the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic has clearly shown us that, in an interconnected world, diseases and the effects of measures taken to contain them spread rapidly over national borders. While the pandemic is not the central theme of this report, it highlights the close relationship between the production, consumption and trade of food. This fact underlines the importance of adopting an integrated approach to food systems and makes the release of SOCO 2020 even timelier. I invite you to read this report carefully, as it contains important information on how markets can bring us closer to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of Agenda 2030. SOCO 2020 provides novel data analysis for trade and markets around the world. It offers a detailed study of major global trends in agri-food markets to identify how to reap economic, environmental and social gains and spur development. Trade in food and agriculture has more than doubled in real terms since 1995. Emerging and developing countries have become active participants in global markets, and they now account for about one-third of global trade. Technological advancements have made it possible to transform production and trade processes, which has in turn enabled global value chains in food and agriculture to emerge. SOCO 2020 estimates that about one-third of global agricultural and food exports are traded within a global value chain. A central argument of this report is that well-functioning markets are key for development and economic growth. International trade can be a powerful instrument, and markets can be harnessed to foster sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes. Global value chains can make it easier for developing countries to integrate into global markets. As they link our food markets closely, they also provide a mechanism to diffuse best practices to promote sustainable development. But in this rapidly transforming market environment, we should leave no one behind. We need to redouble efforts to include smallholder farmers in modern food value chains, thus securing rural incomes and food security in both rural and urban areas. Smallholder farmers face many challenges that can undermine their attempts to farm and market their products effectively. Policies and mechanisms that support them in this regard will be indispensable to encourage their productivity and market participation. Digital technologies can help markets to function better and can improve farmers access to them. Innovations, such as food e-commerce, can benefit both farmers and consumers. However, to guarantee that the dividends of digital innovation are shared with the poorest, we must reduce the current digital divide. Nevertheless, it is difficult to foresee all the impacts that technological innovation could have on how we grow, process, trade and consume food. Today, we know that further usage of technology can help us achieve significant gains in this area. But it is worth noting that some of the risks in