2019全球智库报告（英文版）.pdf

University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) 6-18-2020 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report James G. McGann University of Pennsylvania, jmcgannwharton.upenn.edu Follow this and additional works at: repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks Part of the International and Area Studies Commons McGann, James G., 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (2020). TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports. 17. repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/17 2020 Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by an information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the University of Pennsylvania, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. All requests, questions and comments should be sent to: James G. McGann, Ph.D. Senior Lecturer, International Studies Director Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program The Lauder Institute University of Pennsylvania Email: jmcgannwharton.upenn.edu This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/17 For more information, please contact repositorypobox.upenn.edu. 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report Abstract The Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania conducts research on the role policy institutes play in governments and civil societies around the world. Often referred to as the “think tanks think tank,” TTCSP examines the evolving role and character of public policy research organizations. Over the last 29 years, the TTCSP has developed and led a series of global initiatives that have helped bridge the gap between knowledge and policy in critical policy areas such as international peace and security, globalization and governance, international economics, environmental issues, information and society, poverty alleviation, and healthcare and global health. These international collaborative efforts are designed to establish regional and international networks of policy institutes and communities that improve policy making while strengthening democratic institutions and civil societies around the world. The TTCSP works with leading scholars and practitioners from think tanks and universities in a variety of collaborative efforts and programs, and produces the annual Global Go To Think Tank Index that ranks the worlds leading think tanks in a variety of categories. This is achieved with the help of a panel of over 1,796 peer institutions and experts from the print and electronic media, academia, public and private donor institutions, and governments around the world. We have strong relationships with leading think tanks around the world, and our annual think Tank Index is used by academics, journalists, donors and the public to locate and connect with the leading centers of public policy research around the world. Our goal is to increase the profile and performance of think tanks and raise the public awareness of the important role think tanks play in governments and civil societies around the globe. Since its inception in 1989, the TTCSP has focused on collecting data and conducting research on think tank trends and the role think tanks play as civil society actors in the policymaking process. In 2006, the TTCSP developed and launched a pilot project named the global index of think tanks, designed to identify and recognize centers of excellence in all the major areas of public policy research and in every region of the world. To date, TTCSP has provided technical assistance and capacity building programs in 85 countries. We are now working to create regional and global networks of think tanks in an effort to facilitate collaboration and the production of a modest yet achievable set of global public goods. Our goal is to create lasting institutional and state-level partnerships by engaging and mobilizing think tanks that have demonstrated their ability to produce high quality policy research and shape popular and elite opinion and actions for public good. Disciplines International and Area Studies | Social and Behavioral Sciences Comments 2020 Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by an information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the University of Pennsylvania, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. All requests, questions and comments should be sent to: James G. McGann, Ph.D. Senior Lecturer, International Studies Director Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program The Lauder Institute University of Pennsylvania Email: jmcgannwharton.upenn.edu This other is available at ScholarlyCommons: repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/17 1 2019 THINK TANKS there is, in fact, wide variation among think tanks in the work they do and the extent to which they do it. Over the last 90 years, several distinct organizational forms of think tanks have emerged that differentiate themselves in terms of their operating styles, patterns of recruitment and aspirations to academic standards of objectivity and completeness in research. It should be noted that alternate typologies of think tanks have been offered by other analysts.1 In the global context, most think tanks tend to fall into the broad categories outlined below. 14 Figure 1: Categories of Think Tank Affiliations CATEGORY DEFINITION AUTONOMOUS AND INDEPENDENT Significant independence from any one interest group or donor, and autonomous in its operation and funding from government. QUASI-INDEPENDENT Autonomous from government but controlled by an interest group, donor or contracting agency that provides a majority of the funding and has significant influence over operations of the think tank. GOVERNMENT-AFFILIATED A part of the formal structure of government. QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL Funded exclusively by government grants and contracts but not a part of the formal structure of government. UNIVERSITY-AFFILIATED2 A policy research center at a university. POLITICAL-PARTY AFFILIATED Formally affiliated with a political party. CORPORATE (FOR-PROFIT) A for-profit public policy research organization, affiliated with a corporation or merely operating on a for-profit basis. 2Another typology distinguishes between three types of think tanks: “universities without students,” contract researchers and advocacy tanks. Weaver (1989). 15 North America and Europe There are 2,058 think tanks in North America (Mexico, Canada and the United States) of which 1,872 are in the United States. There are 2,219 think tanks in Europe. Over 51 percent of all think tanks are in North America and Europe, a decrease from last year. The number of think tanks in the United States has more than doubled since 1980. The end of Post-WWII consensus and challenge to the welfare state contributed to the growth of think tanks on the left and the right of the political spectrum. Most of the think tanks that have come into existence in the United States since the 1970s are specialized for a particular regional or functional area. About one quarter of US-based think tanks are located in Washington, DC. The rate of establishment of think tanks has declined over the last 12 years in the United States and Europe. Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and North Africa continue to see an expansion in the number and type of think tanks established. Asia has experienced a dramatic growth in think tanks since the mid-2000s. Many think tanks in these regions continue to be dependent on government funding along with gifts, grants and contracts from international public and private donors. University- or government-affiliated or funded think tanks remain the dominant model for think tanks in these regions. There is increasing diversity among think tanks in these regions with independent, political party affiliated, and corporate or business sector think tanks that are being created with greater frequency. In an effort to diversify their funding base, think tanks have targeted businesses and wealthy individuals to support their core operations and programs. 16 Reasons for the Growth of Think Tanks in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries Information and technological revolution. End of national governments monopoly on information. Increasing complexity and technical nature of policy problems. Increasing size of government. Crisis of confidence in governments and elected officials. Globalization and the growth of state and non-state actors. Need for timely and concise information and analysis that is “in the right form, in the right hands, at the right time.” Reasons for the Recent Decline in Number of Think Tanks Established Worldwide Political and regulatory environment growing hostile to think tanks and NGOs in many countries. Decreasing funding for policy research by public and private donors. Public and private donor tendency toward short-term, project-specific funding instead of investing in ideas and institutions. Underdeveloped institutional capacity and the inability to adapt to change. Increased competition from advocacy organizations, for-profit consulting firms, law firms and 24/7 electronic media. Institutions having served their purpose and discontinued their operations. When I helped organize the first international meeting of think tanks, one of the major debates at the meeting was the contention that the term “think tank” doesnt travel well across borders and cultures. That is clearly no longer the case, as the term is now widely accepted around the globe to describe “public-policy research analysis and engagement organizations that generate policy-oriented research, analysis, and advice on domestic and international issues, which enable policymakers and the public to make informed decisions about public policy issues.” And, increasingly, think tanks are a global phenomenon because they play a critical role for governments and civil societies around the world by acting as bridges between knowledge (academia) and power (politicians and policymakers). Governments and individual policymakers, throughout the developed and developing world, face the common problem of bringing expert knowledge to bear in government decision- making. Policymakers need understandable, reliable, accessible and useful information about the societies they govern. They also need to know how current policies are working, as well as how to set out possible alternatives and their likely costs and consequences. This expanding need has fostered the growth of independent public policy research organization: the think tank community, as we know it. 17 Think tanks have increased in number; the the scope and impact of their work have also expanded dramatically. Still, the potential of think tanks to support and sustain democratic governments and civil societies around the world is far from exhausted. The challenge for the new millennium is to harness the vast reservoir of knowledge, information and associational energy that exist in public policy research organizations so that it supports self-sustaining economic, social and political progress in every region of the world for public good. Part of the goal of this report is to raise some of the critical threats and opportunities that face the think tank community globally. These threats are best expressed by what I call the “four mores”3: More Issues More Actors More Competition More Conflict These threats create a set of challenges that confront all think tanks: Competitive challenges Resource challenges Technological challenges To effectively respond to the threats and opportunities posed by this new and challenging environment, think tanks need to focus on the “four Ms”: Mission Market Manpower Money In a global marketplace of ideas, think tanks need to develop national, regional and global partnerships while creating new and innovative platforms to deliver their products and services to an ever-expanding audience of citizens, policymakers and businesses around the world. 3 McGann, 2007 18 2019 Trends and Transitions in Think Tanks and Policy Advice TTCSP is dedicated to understanding the key trends and challenges facing think thanks around the world. All of our research, publications, and regional and global think tank summits are focused on the organizational challenges confronting the think tank community and the policy challenges facing think tanks, policymakers and the public. This issue, we have decided to highlight the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies on think tanks, analyzing AIs radical transformations and providing an assessment of the state of the field. This is followed by a new list that TTCSP is introducting to the 2019 Global Go To Think Tank Index: “Best Artificial Intelligence (AI) Think Tanks.” These are organizations that are on the cutting- edge of emerging technology trends and the issues they generate. Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program Lauder Institute University of Pennsylvania James G. McGann with special thanks to Laura Whelan for assistance writing and preparing this article. 19 Think Tanks and Emerging Technologies: On the Front Lines or on the Side Lines?4 As accelerating advances in disruptive technologies transform politics and increase the velocity of information and policy flows worldwide, think tanks, policymakers and the public are being confronted with changes that may move faster than they can comprehend. Global economies are being altered by the fourth industrial revolution in a way that will fundamentally alter the meaning and purpose of work, education and life itself. This is occurring at the same time that the post-Cold War world order is being challenged and transformed. These two paradigmatic shifts are raising fundamental questions about the value and purpose of national, regional and global governance. We are in an age of uncertainty and insecurity where everything around us is in a state of flux. These twin, coincident transformational changes require think tanks to be on the front lines, raising the difficult questions and encouraging policymakers and the public to understand both the costs and benefits of these new technologies, in addition to the tactical and strategic implications of the new world order. Think tanks need to be analyzing and communicating the issues associated with these changes and contribute to shaping the new order of things. Specifically, this requires think tanks to transform their organizations so that they can: (1) provide analysis of major changes unleased by modern science, technological advancements and the fourth industrial revolution; (2) harness the speed, accuracy and power of emerging technologies in their