2018全球智库报告（英文版）.pdf

Masthead Logo University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) 1-2019 2018 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report James G. McGann University of Pennsylvania, jmcgannsas.upenn.edu Follow this and additional works at:repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks Part of theInternational and Area Studies Commons 2019 Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the University of Pennsylvania, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. All requests, questions and comments should be sent to: James G. McGann, Ph.D. Senior Lecturer, International Studies Director, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program The Lauder Institute University of Pennsylvania Email:jmcgannwharton.upenn.edu This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons.repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/16 For more information, please contactrepositorypobox.upenn.edu. McGann, James G., 2018 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (2019).TTCSP Global Go To Think Tank Index Reports. 16. repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/16 2018 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report Abstract The Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania conducts research on the role policy institutes play in governments and civil societies around the world. Often referred to as the “think tanks think tank,” TTCSP examines the evolving role and character of public policy research organizations. Over the last 27 years, the TTCSP has developed and led a series of global initiatives that have helped bridge the gap between knowledge and policy in critical policy areas such as international peace and security, globalization and governance, international economics, environmental issues, information and society, poverty alleviation, and healthcare and global health. These international collaborative efforts are designed to establish regional and international networks of policy institutes and communities that improve policy making while strengthening democratic institutions and civil societies around the world. The TTCSP works with leading scholars and practitioners from think tanks and universities in a variety of collaborative efforts and programs, and produces the annual Global Go To think Tank Index that ranks the worlds leading think tanks in a variety of categories. This is achieved with the help of a panel of over 1,796 peer institutions and experts from the print and electronic media, academia, public and private donor institutions, and governments around the world. We have strong relationships with leading think tanks around the world, and our annual think Tank Index is used by academics, journalists, donors and the public to locate and connect with the leading centers of public policy research around the world. Our goal is to increase the profile and performance of think tanks and raise the public awareness of the important role think tanks play in governments and civil societies around the globe. Since its inception in 1989, the TTCSP has focused on collecting data and conducting research on think tank trends and the role think tanks play as civil society actors in the policymaking process. In 2006, the TTCSP developed and launched a pilot project named the global index of think tanks, designed to identify and recognize centers of excellence in all the major areas of public policy research and in every region of the world. To date, TTCSP has provided technical assistance and capacity building programs in 85 countries. We are now working to create regional and global networks of think tanks in an effort to facilitate collaboration and the production of a modest yet achievable set of global public goods. Our goal is to create lasting institutional and state-level partnerships by engaging and mobilizing think tanks that have demonstrated their ability to produce high quality policy research and shape popular and elite opinion and actions for public good. Disciplines International and Area Studies | Social and Behavioral Sciences Comments 2019 Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the University of Pennsylvania, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program. All requests, questions and comments should be sent to: This other is available at ScholarlyCommons:repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/16 James G. McGann, Ph.D. Senior Lecturer, International Studies Director, Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program The Lauder Institute University of Pennsylvania Email:jmcgannwharton.upenn.edu This other is available at ScholarlyCommons:repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/16 2018 Corrected Version as of 4/25/2019 THINK TANKS The dramatic increase in the rate of technological change; Global information interdependence and The increased velocity of information and policy flows. The internet, human and digital networks that are constantly being enhanced by new technologies are increasing both the volume and velocity of information flows around the world. These new realities are making posible to manage and manipulate masive amounts of data which is disrupting business, politics and public policy. Henry Kissinger famously said that being a policy maker is like being at the end of a firehose, today we are all at the end of a fire hose. These trends in information and technology have served as an accelerant that is fueling the political discontent and disruptions that are on the rise in US, France, Britain, Italy, Philippines, Hungary, Brazil and other countries around the world. Some have eroneously atributed the source of this discontent to be a backlash against globalization. The reality is the much more complex and Involves a number of issues and problems that thanks to the internet, social media and social networks have become omnipresent and inescapable. The uncertainty of our times 19 19 has created a sea of insecurity that has made people concerned and confused about their future of their work and welbeing. This sea of insecurity is comprised of 7 factors that have intensified over the last 5-7 years. The failure of government or elected officials to address these issues because of political polarization and policy paralysis has left many citizens disilusioned and discontent. These factors help explain why people are gravitating to nontraditional politicians who promise security and quick fixes to complex problems. The sea of insecurity is comprised of the following factors: 1. Economic Insecurity job, entire carers and profesions are renginered or simply vanishing, the income gap is growing and the opportunities for the current generation may not be as promising or secure as it was for us or our parents. 2. Physical Insecurity we are reminded on a daily, hourly basis of terrorist attacks, the impact of climate change and other catastrophic events, such as the prospects a nuclear conflict, all of which increase our sense of insecurity. 3. Loss of National and Personal Identity changing demographic patterns and regular and irregular migration are raising questions about national identity. In 20 years, Asians, Hispanics and those of European decent wil be of equal numbers in America. Similar changes are taking place in Europe. This change is disconcerting and is compounded by other economic and social factors. 4. The New World Disorder The balance of power that was characteristic of the Cold War provided a degree of order and security that is missing today and history tells that the most unstable and dangerous periods are ones where there are multiple power poles and powers are raising and falling. We are in just such a period where everyone is in charge and no one is. 5. Information Insecurity The Information Age has given us unprecedented access and convenience but this comes at the cost of privacy, security, loss of identity, and, to a certain extent, humanity. The flood of information, which includes disinformation, misinformation and atempts to manipulate us, makes us fel uncertain and insecure. 6. Sea Change Insecurity The world is undergoing a revolutionary change in science, technology and society. In addition, the rise of Asia as a economic and military power and the subsequente change in economic, social and political status that wil bring is unsettling. 7. No Answers The most unsettling aspect of all of this is that our leaders and institutions are not focused on these issues. They are not addressing these concerns and that is why there has been a loss of trust and confidence in governments and elected officials. 20 20 This is where think tanks can play an critical role by helping create the answers and action that is neded in many countries today. Think tanks play a critical role in analyzing, developing and promoting policy solutions, particularly in times of extreme disruption and change. However, these organizations now operate in information-rich societies where facts, evidence and credible research are often ignored and where disinformation can gain a footing. To remain relevant and impactful, think tanks and policy institutes must simultaneously pursue rigor, innovation, accessibility and accountability more than ever before. In short, think tanks must adapt and innovate by transforming their organization to be smarter, better, faster and more mobile. Think tanks can provide a range of strategies and best practices for transforming public policy and institutions in an era of digital and political disruptions, as wel as increased social and economic turbulence. While these are chalenging times, it is also time of oportunity for those institutions that can develop new and innovative solutions to the complex problems we face. 21 21 New Busines Models for Think Tanks Think tanks today are facing increasingly intense changes in the world, both political and technological ones, which pose serious challenges and even existential crises to think tanks. In 2015, the columnist of the Washington Post, Amanda Bennett, asked “Are Think Tanks Obsolete?” 6 Think tanks are not obsolete, but some of their strategies are. In order to overcome the numerous predicaments imposed by our times, think tanks need to innovate their business models. A New Operational Context Think tanks today face the “NGO pushback” in which external forces are using legal and extralegal means to limit the number, role, and influence of the civil society. This “pushback,” coined in the 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Report, resulted in part from the rise of partisan politics and political polarization, both of which eroded efective decision making and blurred the lines betwen policy advice and advocacy for think tanks. 7 Influenced by this partisanship and the rise of populism, the general public has expresed a distrust of higher power institutions, including research institutes such as think tanks. The funding landscape for think tanks has also changed drastically. The so-called “golden age” of think tanks in the 70s and the 80s is gone. Today, with the recent rise of global philanthropy, donors focus more on projects that are short-term, specific, and high impact. 8 Furthermore, in the face of rapid technological advancements, think tanks now find themselves no longer the only actor in the knowledge brokerage industry, but as only one of the competitors in the “global marketplace of ideas,” vying with other actors such as media organizations, advocacy groups, consulting and law firms 9 . Given this aforementioned context, adapting new business models seems inevitable and worth studying for think tanks. The traditional academic-centric model has ended. The business models for think tanks is changing from “the maner by which the think tank delivers value to stakeholders, entices funders to pay for value, and converts those payments to research with the potential to influence policy” 10 to a condign that incorporates innovative strategies in management, communication, financing, and technologies without undermining the quality and rigorousness of research and publication. 6 Amanda Benet. Are Think Tanks Obsolete? The Washington Post. obsolete/?noredirect=on this strategic communication of the goods and services a think tank can offer is an important way of maintaining necessary funding. These comunication strategies are the vehicles in delivering research results, and thus are crucial in generating an impact on the policymaking comunity. 14 11 James McGan. “For Think Tanks Its Either Inovate or Die,” Washington Post. 6 October 2015. 12 Ibid. 13 James G. McGan. 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report. Scholarly Comons, University of Pennsylvania. repository.upenn.edu/think_tanks/10/ (February 9, 2016), page 15. 14 Fred Kuntz. Communications and Impact Metrics for Think Tanks. Centre for International Governance Innovation. ww.cigionline/articles/communications-and-impact-metrics-think-tanks (July 1, 2013) 23 23 Innovative Funding Strategies While Benjamin Franklin has written that “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes,” think tank leaders today may say “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and short-term project funding” - if any funding is to be certain at all. 15 Increasingly, think tanks are moving towards endowment-based funding to increase long-term stability. Others have suggested the establishment of funds such as a shared reserves fund and an emergency bridging fund to help think tanks to build capacity and avoid financial risks. In short, an effective and successful fundraising strategy should build the organizational strategy and related processes into researchers everyday work; have a Monitoring and Learning (M and be explicit about the conection between the strategy and funding needs. Big Data Analytics Accompanying technological advancements is the increasing amount of data and the use of big data analytics. Some estimations sugest a 4,30% increase in anual data generation by 2020 - - 44 times greater in 2020 than it was in 2009. 16 According to studies conducted by the European Parliament Research Service in 2016, big data analytics could identify efficiencies that can be made in a wide range of sectors, leading to inovative new products, greater competitivenes, and economic growth. 17 The McKinsey Global Institute stressed that “there are no industries in which the ability to continuously integrate new sources of data of any format and quality would not generate improvements.” 18 Think tanks are no exception. While there are certainly complex regulatory concerns and technical loph