技术趋势2021报告（英文版）.pdf

Tech Trends 2021Trending the trends: Twelve years of research Right- speed IT IT unbounded No-collar workforce Rebooting the digital workplace Hyper-hybrid clouds API economy API imperative NoOps in a serverless world Trust economy Everything- as-a-service Blockchain to blockchains Geospatial visualization Amplied intelligence Digital twins MLOps: Industrialized AI Machine data revolution DEI tech: Tools for equity Big data goes to work Finding the face of your data Dark analytics Machine intelligence Enterprise data sovereignty Enterprise mobility Mobile only and beyond Wearables Ambient computing Internet of Things Industrialized analytics Democratized trust User empowerment Dimensional marketing AR we revisit the critical core and how digital nonnatives are using cloud, low-code, and platform- first strategies to juice legacy assets; and we take a deep dive into supply chain transformation. A s poet Robert Burns mused, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In January 2020, most of us had plansthoughtful road maps to guide our organizations, our technology, and our lives through the months to follow. And then COVID-19 punched the entire world in the mouth, rendering useless many of these best- laid plans. Seemingly overnight, a strange, historic event disrupted our assumptions and forced us, with a shocking degree of urgency, to become more adaptable and responsive than we had thought possible. Mindful that the pandemics impact continues to ripple across societies, markets, and lives, we present Tech Trends 2021. The theme of this years report is resilience. To us, this means a stubborn determination to adapt and thrive in Letter from the editors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9For data, we investigate how leading organizations are industrializing their AI initiatives with “MLOps” and, consequently, developing new approaches to managing data for machine, rather than human, consumption. We also discuss emerging trends in cybersecurity. For human and machine interaction, we look at emerging trends in the future of the workplace, digital experiences, and technology that supports diversity, equity, and inclusion. Taken together, these trends suggest that there is a more hopeful dimension to the turbulent events of this past year. New technology and business plans already being executed chart a promising path toward tomorrow. Confidently leading this journey will be CIOs and other executives, who have proven they can take a punch and get back on their feet. Now thats what we call resilience. Letter from the editors 5 Get in touch with us Talk with our Tech Trends team Reach out with questions on emerging tech and access new content. TechT | DeloitteonTech Access insights for tech leaders Gain new perspectives through research and success stories from our CIO Program and Executive Women in Tech leaders. | Deloi.tt/women Stay in touch with Deloitte Insights Download the Deloitte Insights and Dow Jones app to access articles, news, and the Daily Executive Briefing from our C -suite journals, and receive notifications as new content is available. | DeloitteInsight Scott Buchholz Emerging technology research director and Government trust, encompassing risks related to cyber, regulatory, and ethics; and core modernization, the organizations approach to rejuvenating legacy core systems. Macro technology forces 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9BINESS OF TECHNOLOGY Evolution of the IT function CORE MODERNIZATION Reshaping the systems at the heart of the business TRT Cyber, regulatory, and ethics DIGITAL EERIENCE From channel to human-centered design DIGITAL REALITY AMBIENT EERIENCE Transparent, ubiquitous interfaces Reimagining engagement DATA AND ANALYTICS Data management, architecture, and insights ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EONENTIAL INTELLIGENCE Symbolic, deep, and broad reasoning Predict, prescribe, augment, and automate CLO Flexibility and ubiquity DISTRIBED ATFORMS QNT Exponential computation Distributed trust, assets, and connectivity INFORMATION COMTATION INTERACTION SIMPLICITY OMNISCIENCE ABUNDANCE FODATION ENDGAME ENABLERS HORIZON NE DISRTORS 12Strategy, engineered As strategy and technology become increasingly intertwined, strategic intent must inform technology choices. STRATEGY LEADS TECHNOLOGY Use strategy support platforms to identify driving forces, inform choices, and monitor execution and outcomes. TECH-ENABLED STRATEGY Strategists are making more clear, timely, and creative choices about where to play and how to win. FUTURE-READY STRATEGY 13strategy, enabling organizational nimbleness, scalability, stability, and optionality. 1 The traditional process of strategy development is too infrequent and labor-intensive to enable strategists to sense and seize opportunities as they emerge. A growing number are shifting to a fluid and agile process for formulating, evaluating, and executing corporate and business unit strategies by employing technology tools that continually sense, anticipate, and monitor the effectiveness of their strategic choices and execution. The result: more timely and smarter choices that could lead to faster adaptation, bolder strategic choices, and sustainable competitive advantage. Close the technology and business strategy chasm As business strategy and technology strategy become increasingly intertwined, many corporate executives are finding that their organizations past technology choices are limiting their strategic options and business agility. To resolve these technology limitations, these executives are finding it necessary to lean in to technology architecture and technology implementation choices to ensure the overall business strategy is supported by clearly aligned technology choices. Obviously, having a strategy sitting on the shelf isnt enougheffective execution is critical. Strategy, engineered 14 I n a world where technology has emerged as a mighty strategic disruptor, savvy strategists are looking to make more clear, timely, and inspirational choices about future possibilities, continually scanning the horizon for new competitive advantages they can deploy and threats they should avoid. A growing number of organizations are also proactively pursuing novel competitive advantages by joining forces with existing and new ecosystem partners from government and nonprofit agencies to complementary corporations and even “frenemies”to envision how their combined offerings could expand where they play and how they win. Winning in a volatile environment requires an integrated corporate and technology Strategy, engineered Tech-enabled business strategy, optimized for agility TREND 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9And when asked about their strategic priorities and ability to execute, CSOs with disruptive, digital ambitions lack confidence in their ability to execute. In Deloittes 2020 CSO Survey, 2 most respondents (70%) rated disruptive growth as critical for their companies success, but only 13% are confident that their company can deliver on this strategic priority. Having a strategy sitting on the shelf isnt enougheffective execution is critical. Effective execution requires continually monitoring the underlying strategic choices and assumptions, adjusting as needed. Even though most survey participants say they are seeking disruptive growth, 71% report spending more than three months on a single round of strategy development. Nearly half (45%) refresh their strategy annually, or even less frequently: every two years (23%) or three years (22%). Ultimately, strategists should collaborate with tech leaders to confirm that the organizations critical technologies support the organizational strategyand that the organizations technologists have the right framework and understanding of the corporate strategy to make their day-to-day technology decisions. Getting from here to there Agile strategy development and execution doesnt happen in a vacuumto generate effective results, organizations need foundational elements in place. Empowered strategy function. Whether its the CEO, CSO, or other executive, an empowered executive strategy leader is critical to effective strategy development and execution. In collaboration with the CIO, the strategy leader can help expand and shape the vision of executive leaders and board members. As one executive from a leading oil and gas company said, “The CSO needs to challenge long-held views and get our fellow executives to think about a market environment that is different from the existing one.” The successful strategy leader reinforces strategic discipline by looking beyond the organizations daily challenges, aligning key technology choices, and continually scanning the horizon to anticipate emerging challenges. Tech-savvy C-suite. C -suite executives and board members should have a broad understanding of the critical technologies in which the company is, or should be, investing to gain competitive advantage and to build resilience against disruption. Leaders need to be supportive of investing in a portfolio of technology investments, from proofs of Strategy, engineered 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9concept to test emerging technologies to major implementations of proven platforms. Moreover, executives need to help challenge the critical assumptions of those implementing the technology to help make sure the implementation will be driving value for the enterprise. Business-savvy tech leaders. Likewise, IT leaders and technologists should be engaged in strategy development processes and education that gives them a broad understanding of the business and its strategic objectives. As strategic partners, tech leaders can help strategy and business leaders identify and explore emerging technologies that support the strategic vision, with the objective of aligning the organizations technology and corporate strategies. In fact, in a DeloitteWall Street Journal Intelligence survey, 40% of CEOs said their CIO or tech leader will be the key driver of business strategymore than the CFO, COO, and CMO combined. 3 Further, big technology bets require the active participation of the CEO/ CSO to ensure that the organizations tolerance for risk is honored and well managed. Aligned technology and partners. Effective organizations choose their technology platforms and ecosystem partners carefully, aligning their choices and implementation decisions with their strategic goals. When selecting important ecosystem partners, evaluate their long-term motives and agendas to understand whether their objectives and aspirations align with yours. In a worst-case scenario, a platform partner could become a competitive threat after they “learn” your industry. Collaborative list of strategic assumptions. Early in the strategy development process, lead strategists, tech leaders, and ecosystem partners should explore and challenge the assumptions for a tech-enabled strategy to be effective. Consider holding the discussion in a neutral environment such as a workshop, where egoless answers are encouraged and cataloged so they can be used later to flag leading indicators of the strategys success or failure. Agile funding. Executing on agile strategies demands a flexible process for planning and funding the technology investments required to implement strategies. For insights into how to finance innovation at the speed of agile, see Tech Trends 2020: Finance and the future of IT. Next up: Tech-enabled strategy To compete in an increasingly complex world, not only are the strategies becoming more digitalso is the process of developing and executing strategies and monitoring outcomes. As leaders are forced to consider a wider range of variables and future scenarios, tech-enabled strategy platforms can help strategists think more expansively and precisely about the wide range of future possibilities. Strategy, engineered 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Technology can also help leaders gain insight into seemingly unrelated occurrences that can drive smarter strategic choices on a continual basis. Strategists should evaluate technologies that help empower their imagination by identifying driving forces, informing strategic decisions, and monitoring outcomes. (See figure, “Strategy support technologies” on page 18.) 40% of CEOs said their CIO or tech leader will be the key driver of business strategymore than the CFO, COO, and CMO combined. Finally, technology plays an increasingly important role in helping companies translate a strategy into strategic initiatives, facilitate strategy execution, and monitor a strategys impact in the marketplace. The way forward Strategy development is not a one-and-done exercise but, rather, an ongoing, cyclical process. As technology and business become increasingly intertwined, business strategy drives technology strategy and vice versa. Around and around it goesto the point where the complexity of known and unknown strategic drivers inside and outside the organization could blow the mind of even the most nimble-brained strategist. While accelerating technology is a strategic complicator, executives can deploy it to simplify and accelerate smart strategy Strategy, engineered 17 development and execution. Leading organizations are engineering their strategic function to be more agile, scalable, and stable, giving them an array of strategic options in their back pocket for whatever the future holds. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Strategy, engineered 18 Strategy support technologies Advanced strategic platforms equipped with advanced analytics, automation, and AI, including natural language processing and machine learning, can help leaders think more expansively and precisely about the wide range of future possibilities. OBJECTIVE DESCRIPTION KEY CONSIDERATIONS EXAMPLE Identify strategic forces Inform strategic choices Monitor execution and outcomes Trend-sensing technologies continually scan the environment, collecting, analyzing, and clustering leading indicators that challenge or confirm strategic assumptions to facilitate quick responses. Dynamic scenario tools and simulators help leaders identify threats and opportunities, quickly test potential outcomes of strategic choices, and prioritize critical uncertainties. Analytics technologies continually track internal and external outcomes to inform ongoing leadership discussions and decisions regarding the organizations performance against the strategy. External: Changes in society, technology, politics, economy, environment, and regulations Business: Shifts in industry dynamics, customer expectations, competitor moves, and stakeholder behaviors, attitudes, and emotions Organizational: Trends in products/services, operations, asset base, costs, and branding Create alternate long-term scenarios to identify threats and opportunities Develop simulations to test various strategic choices Enhance human understanding and insight to determine potential implications, critical unknowns, and strategic responses Are we honoring our strategic choices? Whats working? Whats not working? What