3D传感对于epi晶片制造商的意义（英文版）.pdf

Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at: research.hsbc M i F I D I I R esea r c hI s y o u r a c c e s s a g r e e d ?C ON T ACT u s t o d a y Adoption of 3D sensing to rise rapidly in many applications, such as smartphones, self-driving cars and industry automation Smartphone is the key driver in 2018-19 and epi-wafer vendors should benefit from outsourcing partnerships with IDMs Epi-wafer players in Taiwan are VPEC, HLJ and LandMark (Buy) 3D sensing demand to growth rapidly driven initially by smartphone adoption and later by new areas, such as VR/AR, autonomous driving (e.g. LiDAR) and industry automation. Taiwan epi-wafer makers stand to benefit from (1) outsourcing demand from a leading IDM and (2) structural growth from non-smartphone application. We forecast epi-wafer demand to grow at a CAGR of 105% from 2017 to 2019e. Key epi-wafer vendors in Taiwan include VPEC (2455 TT, not rated), LandMark (3081 TT, Buy), HLJ (3688 TT, not rated), and Epistar (2448 TT, Reduce). Focusing on Apple supply chain in 2018. Before 2020, we think smartphone could still be the main driver for 3D sensing demand and iPhone will still dominate in 3D sensing solutions in terms of both hardware (VCSEL LD and module design) and algorithm. We see scope for all three new iPhone models in 2018 to adopt Face ID and likely an extra 3D sensing solution in the rear (although spec for VCSEL and which models will adopt it are uncertain). For Android, we think the 2018 adoption rate will be low given (1) late design and limited supply, (2) lack of algorithm, and (3) cost concerns. Vendors landscape for Apple beyond 2017. Within iPhone suppliers, we think Lumentum may remain the leading supplier of dot projectors, as Finisar may take time to ramp up. II-VI and Lumentum could be two major suppliers for flood illuminators. Within the epi-wafer supply chain, Lumentum may seek new suppliers in Taiwan as it gives Lumentum access to (1) lower costs, (2) flexible supply, and (3) better logistic management. Taiwan epi-wafer makers with VCSEL LD capability are LandMark (3081 TT, Buy) and VPEC (2455 TT, NR). We think LED-based epi-wafer vendors such as Epistar (2488 TT, Reduce) are lagging behind the required technology hurdle while the epi+chip business models could be viewed as potential competitors by existing IDM players. Key ratings and estimates for epi-wafer manufacturers supplying to the specialty semiconductor sector Company Ticker Rating* Target price (LC) Price (LC) 25-Jan-2018 Implied Upside/ downside Mkt cap (USDbn) _ PE _ _ PB _ _ ROE (%) _ Dividend yield (%) 2018e 2019e 2018e 2019e 2018e 2019e 2018e 2019e LandMark 3081 TT Buy 460.0 372.0 24% 1.2 24.2 18.6 7.4 6.4 33.4 36.8 3.3 4.3 Epistar 2448 TT Reduce 24.0 52.3 -54% 2.0 50.5 90.8 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 VPEC 2455 TT Not rated NA 105.0 NA 0.7 34.3 29.9 6.8 7.0 18.1 21.3 2.2 2.8 Finisar FNSR US Not rated NA 18.96 NA 2.2 16.3 13.1 1.3 1.2 5.4 11.0 NA NA IQE IQE LN Not rated NA 110.3 NA 1.2 19.0 13.5 1.9 1.7 10.0 10.9 NA NA II-VI IIVI US Not rated NA 44.75 NA 2.8 22.7 16.4 2.8 2.4 14.4 17.3 NA NA HLJ 3688 TT Not rated NA 163.99 NA 0.4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts for non-covered companies, HSBC estimates for covered companies 29 January 2018 Samson Hung* Research Analyst, Technology HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited samson.hm.hunghsbc +8862 6631 2863 Will Cho* Analyst, Hardware and Materials The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch rickyjuilseokr.hsbc +822 3706 8777 Bruce Lu* Analyst, Technology HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited bruce.kl.luhsbc +8862 6631 2861 Steven Pelayo, CFA Global Head of Technology Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited stevenpelayohsbc.hk +852 2822 4391 Anthony Liao* Research Associate, Technology HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited anthony.wc.liaohsbc +8862 6631 2865 *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Asia Technology EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTOR Taiwan Making sense out of 3D sensing for epi-wafer makers EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTOR 29 January 2018 2 3D sensing the eyes of future machines Whether it is AR/VR, autonomous driving, or industry automation, one of the common features to make these technologies happen is for the machine to “see” things in a three-dimension way. This is so-called machine vision. In the past, what machines could see was mostly a 2D picture, i.e. without depth information. With more and more precision required, it is crucial for machines to develop the capability to perceive things with depth information. This is termed “3D sensing”. Last year HSBC analyst, Will Cho, published a report Asia Tech Hardware Future vision: the rise of 3D depth sensing (11 April 2017) talking about the 3D sensing market and the applications. There are several key parts of a 3D sensing module and we compile a comprehensive key supply chain companies in Figure 1. Within Apple 3D sensing supply chain, HSBC Technology Research team covers: LG Innotek: (Buy: Well discounted, published on 23 January 2018) Largan: (Upgrade to Buy: Worst should be over, published on 11 January 2018) Chroma ATE: (Hold: Multiple growth drivers but lofty valuation, published on 30 October 2017) Win Semiconductors (Hold: 3Q17 strong beat, momentum to continue in 4Q, published on 30 October 2017) This note focuses on VCSEL solution for smartphone 3D sensing VCSEL (vertical cavity surface emitting laser) is the preferred structure for laser diodes used in the 3D sensing module. According to research by MarketsandMarkets, the global VCSEL market will grow at a CAGR of 17.3% from USD0.95bn in 2015 to USD3.1bn in 2022. This estimate includes all the applications such as communication, sensing, and industrial demand. In this note, we look at VCSEL solution providers and epi-wafer manufacturers in both the Apple and Android supply chain for epi-wafer makers. Our estimate revenue from smartphone 3D sensing opportunity may account for only 5% of total demand in 2019e. For 3D sensing VCSEL solution providers, we think the key players will be Lumentum, Finisar, II-VI, and ams. Key epi-wafer players are IQE, VPEC, HLJ, and LandMark. Building block for 3D sensing This report focuses on potential beneficiaries among the epitaxy wafer makers from the rapid 3D sensing demand growth Epi-wafer makers are likely to benefit as outsourcing partners to leading IDMs for smartphone demand in 2018-19e Major players in Taiwan are VPEC (2455 TT, NR), LandMark (3081 TT, Buy), HLJ (3688 TT, NR), and Epistar (2448 TT, Reduce) 3 EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTOR 29 January 2018 Figure 1: 3D depth sensor supply chain Category Sub-category Component Manufacturer Ticker Component IR laser projector VCSEL solution providers Lumentum LITE US (laser diode) II-VI IIVI US Finisar FNSR US Philips Photonics Unlisted ams AMS SW Epi-wafer IQE IQE LN Princeton Optics Unlisted VPEC 2455 TT HLJ 3688 TT LandMark 3081 TT Epistar 2448 TT VCSEL LD foundry Win Semi 3105 TT AWSC 8086 TT DOE/collimator Himax HIMX US TSMC 2330 TT (Wafer-level stacking) Xintec / ams 3374 TT MEMS mirror STMicroelectronics STM US Texas Instruments TXN US Wafer-level optics ams AMS SW Module LG Innotek 011070 KS Sharp 6753 JP Sunny Optical 2832 HK O-Film 002456 CH IR sensor (depth sensor) CIS (mono) STMicroelectronics STM US Infineon (w/ pmd) IFX GR (wafer reconstruction) Tong Hsing 6271 TT Lens Largan 3008 TT Genius 3406 TT Module Sharp 6753 JP Hon Hai (CMBU) 2317 TT Sunny Optical 2832 HK RGB sensor (front camera) CIS (RGB) Sony 6758 JP Samsung Electronics 005930 KS Omnivision Unlisted On Semiconductor ON US Lens Largan 3008 TT Genius 3406 TT Module Cowell 1415 HK Hon Hai (CMBU) 2317 TT O-Film 002456 CH Equipment Chip design and packaging ToF sensor packaging ams (Heptagon) AMS SW Automation SIP mounter All Ring Tech 6187 TT CIS/LED assembly Active alignment ASM Pacific 522 HK Testing VCSEL testing Chroma ATE 2360 TT EMS provider VCSEL assembly Inari Amertron INRI MK Inspection Image/laser inspection HyVISION System 126700 KS Assembly Module 3D camera module Hon Hai 2317 TT SEMCO 009150 KS Namuga 190510 KS Platform Chip design/software PrimeSense Apple AAPL US Tango Google GOOG US SLiM Qualcomm QCOM US Himax HIMX US DepthSense Sony (SoftKinetic) 6758 JP RealSense Intel INTC US Kinect Microsoft (Canesta) MSFT US REAL3 (ToF sensor) Infineon (pmd) IFX GR Vuforia PTC PTC US SwissRanger MESA Imaging Unlisted Source: Company data, HSBC EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTOR 29 January 2018 4 Figure 2: Valuation comparisons for major companies in the 3D sensing VCSEL/epi-wafer supply chain Stock HSBC TP Price Mkt cap EV/EBITDA _ PE (x) _ _ PB (x) _ Sales growth (%) _ OPM (%) _ EPS y-o-y (%) ROE (%) _ code rating (LC) (LC) (USDbn) 18e 19e 18e 19e 18e 19e 18e 19e 18e 19e 18e 19e 18e 19e Lumentum LITE US Not rated NA 44.50 2.8 9.2 7.1 13.2 11.2 3.3 2.6 25.0 14.5 15.7 15.4 78 17 20.9 24.0 Finisar FNSR US Not rated NA 18.96 2.2 6.6 5.5 16.3 13.1 1.3 1.2 -6.6 11.4 10.1 14.1 -43 25 5.4 11.0 II-VI IIVI US Not rated NA 44.75 2.8 11.6 10.4 22.7 16.4 2.8 2.4 20.0 14.2 13.2 16.3 31 41 14.4 17.3 IQE IQE LN E Not rated NA 110 1.2 19.6 16.5 19.0 13.5 1.9 1.7 16.8 28.7 19.9 19.3 29 41 10.0 10.9 VPEC 2455 TT Not rated NA 105 0.7 23.8 19.0 34.3 29.9 6.8 7.0 17.8 7.1 26.7 27.0 41 15 18.1 21.3 LandMark 3081 TT Buy 460 372 1.2 15.7 12.2 24.2 18.6 7.4 6.4 56.3 27.1 51.4 52.9 101 30 33.4 36.8 Epistar 2448 TT Reduce 24 52.3 2.0 7.1 7.5 50.5 90.8 1.1 1.1 -0.4 1.0 5.9 3.4 -28 -44 2.2 1.2 Win Semi 3105 TT Hold 226 240 3.5 11.0 9.7 19.1 16.7 4.5 4.0 23.7 9.5 29.9 31.3 41 14 25.3 25.4 AWSC 8086 TT Not rated NA 69.7 0.3 22.9 n.a. 28.7 n.a. 3.2 n.a. 15.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 44 n.a. 12.4 n.a. Average 14.2 11.0 25.4 26.3 3.6 3.3 18.7 12.6 21.6 22.5 15.8 18.5 Note: Priced as of close on 25 January 2018. Source: Bloomberg consensus forecasts for non-covered companies, HSBC estimates for covered companies Epi-wafer demand for 3D sensing to grow rapidly After the iPhone X launch, a 3D sensing feature has become a key topic for major handset brands, and we believe most of them are working with supply chain companies to develop suitable solutions for 3D sensing. In the longer term, 3D sensing will be used for other rapidly growing applications such as LiDAR in autonomous driving and in industry automation deployment. We believe the key growth driver for 3D sensing epi-wafer demand in the next two to three years will be mainly from smartphone adoption. Per our estimates, the global epi-wafer unit demand global epi-wafers in smartphones could see a 2017-19e CAGR of 105%. Our key assumptions: All new iPhone models adopt the Face ID feature on the front 5% Android adoption in 2018e and 15% in 2019e Assuming Android VCSEL demand per set is 60% of Apples design for example, some may not use flood illuminator or could switch to IR LED instead of IR laser VCSEL. Our assumptions do not include potential 3D sensing module adoption on the rear, as it is too early to determine the die size and the structure of the laser diode (LD) used. However, we see scope for Apple to include the feature in the rear to expand its capability and applications into other areas. Our LG Innotek analyst, Will Cho, believes that the aggressive capex plan from LGI indicated potential new demand. In his Korea hardware note of 20 January 2018, 4Q17 Preview: Taking shelter from near-term headwind, he wrote: “LGI recently announced new capex plan to invest KRW874bn for 2018-19 in camera module capacity expansion and new camera-related technology. We assume that 80% of total capex will be dedicated to 3D sensors and 20% to dual cameras, and more than 70% Figure 3: Selected global 3D sensing VCSEL supply chain companies Source: HSBC C a m p s a m s O t h e r s t a n d a l o n e p l a ye r sS ol ut i on pr ov i de r Lum e nt um F i ni s a r ( I D M ) I I - V I ( I D M ) a m s I nt e l ( R e a l S e ns e )E pi - Wa f e rI Q E / V P E C ( 2 4 5 5 T T ; po t e nt i a l l y s t a r t i ng 2018)F i ni s a r I I - V I H LJ , P r i nc e t on , i n- ho us eV P E C , La ndM a r k , H LJ , Ac c e l i nk , C E T C , S i no S e m i cLD c hi p f ou ndr y pr oc e s s Wi n S e m i F i ni s a r I I - V I AWS C , i n- ho us e AWS C , H LJD O E H i m a xF i na l m od ul e a s s e m bl y S unny O pt i c a lC a m e r a m od ul e , l a s e r m od ul e , LE D pa c k a ge rM a i n c hi ps / Al gor i t hm Q ua l c om mQ ua l c om m , s m a r t pho ne i n-ho us eT S M C , X i nt e c , H i m a xLG I nno t e k , S ha r pA p p l e s u p p l y ch a i nApp l e 5 EQUITIES SEMICONDUCTOR 29 January 2018 will be implemented in 2018 in order to make new lines come on line from 2H18e. Given that the initial capex for dual camera and 3D sensor amounted at KRW250-300bn, respectively, in 2017, this new investment with 3x larger scale implies (1) higher adoption of 3D sensor, (2) introduction of next-generation 3D sensing technology, and (3) persisting LGI dominance for 3D sensors. Accordingly, we raise 3D sensor penetration within Apple (AAPL US, USD179.27, Buy, covered by Steven Pelayo) to 89% by 2019e from 79% and lift LGIs order share to 60% from 54% in 2019e.” Figure 4: Epi-wafer demand for 3D sensing in smartphone (unit) Source: HSBC estimates Within Taiwan epi-wafer players, we think VPEC (2455 TT, not rated) could become a second source of VCSEL epi-wafers, which are now supplied only by IQE. We think HLJ (3688 TT, not rated) is also working with ams (AMS SW, not rated) to develop solutions for Android smartphones. We believe LandMark (3081 TT, Buy) should be another beneficiary of longer-term opportunities in autonomous driving technologies such as demand for LiDAR (light detection and ranging) or the machine vision solutions related to industry automation. We see scope for Epistar (2448 TT, Reduce) to be considered a viable partner in VCSEL LD production as it has ample capacity and knowledge in compound semiconductor fabrication and the necessary know-how for implementing metal-organic chemical vapour deposition (MOCVD). A report in the Economic News on 1 December 2017 indicated that there are solution providers that have sought cooperation opportunities with Epistar over the past 2-3 years, including Lumentum, II-VI and even IQE. The report also indicated