VRAR白皮书（英文版）.pdf

Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality White Paper (2017) China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd December 2017 COPYRIGHT NOTICE This white paper is copyright of CAICT and is protected by applicable laws. The reproduction of text or opinions contained in this white paper, by forwarding, excerpts, or any other means, requires you to specify source: CAICT. Violation of this notice will render you liable for legal proceedings. Acknowledgement Under the guidance of the department of electronics and information, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, this white paper was jointly prepared by China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) and Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. During the preparation, CAICT gained professional support from the following parties: the iLab and the 2012 Labs of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd.; the Innovation Business Department and the virtual reality content creation center of BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd.; GoerTek; China Telecom Shanghai Research Institute; Whaley VR; air360china; and HiScene. Due to factors such as limited time, knowledge, and the still developing industry, there might be mistakes in this white paper. Please feel free to correct us anytime. Preface Virtual Reality (VR)/Augmented Reality (AR) is a key field of the new-generation information and communications technology, which features large application space, huge industry potential, and wide technical span. It has great significance to driving the transformation and upgrade of core components, extensive smart devices, network transmission devices, cloud computing devices, telecom services, and software and industry information services. VR/AR has a long technical history. However, it is an emerging industry and the development of the VR/AR industry and technologies has not been fully finalized. From the perspective of technology, near-eye display, rendering processing, perception and interaction, network transmission, and content creation are forming the primary system. From the perspective of industry structure, the VR industrial system depends on components/equipment, tools/platforms, and contents/applications. When compared with the relatively mature intelligent terminals, VR has a similar industrial system. However, significant differences also exist. In this white paper, the following aspects are systematically described: VR concepts, levels of VR experience, technology architecture, segment systems, and technology development roadmaps. In addition, a detailed segment map of Chinas VR industry was produced based on Chinas local VR enterprises and their roles in the key points of the VR industry chain. The white paper also analyzes the industry ecosystem and development trends, based on which development suggestions are offered to telecom operators. CAICT Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality White Paper (2018) Contents 1 Background 2 1.1 Evolution of the VR Concept and Its Form Divisions 2 1.2 VR Rises Because of Lowered Threshold, Focused Capital, and Policy Support 4 1.3 VR Becomes the Development Focus in the Mobile Internet Evolution Towards the Artificial Intelligence Era 6 2 Key Technology Trend 7 2.1 Preliminary Formation of the VR Technology Architecture 7 2.2 Immersive Experience Improvement and Dizziness Control: Trends of Near-Eye Display Technologies 9 2.2.1 High Angular Resolution and Wide FOV: Key to Improve Immersive VR Experience 9 2.2.2 Dizziness Control: a Challenge to VR Near-Eye Display 10 2.2.3 AMOLED, LCOS, and OLEDoS: Leading Near-Eye Screen Technologies 10 2.3 Tracking and Positioning, Environment Understanding, and Multi-Channel Interaction: Focuses of Perception and Interaction Technologies 12 2.3.1 Tracking and Positioning: a Core Technology in the Field of VR and AR Perception and Interaction 12 2.3.2 Environment Understanding Based on Machine Vision: Trend of AR Perception and Interaction 13 2.3.3 Multi-Channel Interaction: Trend of VR Perception and Interaction 13 2.4 High Bandwidth, Low Latency, Large Capacity, and Service Isolation: Trends of Network Transmission Technologies 15 2.4.1 New Wi-Fi, Large-Capacity PON, and 5G: Trends of Access Network Technologies for VR 15 2.4.2 Simple Architecture, Smart Pipe, Multicast On Demand, and Network Isolation Are Development Trends of Bearer Networks for VR Services 16 2.4.3 A Low-Latency Data Center Is Key to VR Computing Capability Cloudification 18 2.4.4 Projection, Coding, and Transmission Technologies Are Key to Optimizing the VR Network Performance 19 2.4.5 VR-oriented Network O&M and Evaluation Are Important for Improving User Experience 19 2.5 Combination of Enhanced Rendering Algorithms and Capabilities Are Trend of Rendering Processing Technologies 21 3 Industry Ecosystem Trend 24 3.1 Components/Devices, Tools/Platforms, and Content Applications Dominate in the VR Industry Ecosystem24 3.2 Perception and Interaction and Content Creation Become Development Focuses of VR in the Next Phase 25 3.3 IPR Competition Represents the Industry Development Trend 27 3.3.1 Global IPR Development Entered a Rapid Growth Stage, and the Growth Rate in China Is Notable 27 3.4 Emergence of the VR/AR+ Era 28 3.4.1 In VR+ Industries, VR is the key in smart manufacturing 29 3.4.2 In VR+ Medicine, VR is applied in surgery training/guidance, psychiatry, and rehabilitation. 30 3.4.3 In VR+ Games/Social Networking, VR gaming will become the biggest drive of the current VR industry. 30 3.4.4 In VR+ Movie/Live Broadcast, VR becomes a new form of display. 31 4 Recommendations on the Development of the VR Industry for Operators 31 2 4.1 Operators Are One of the Core Links of the VR Industry Chain, Providing Assurance for VR Service Experience and Enabling Service Popularization 32 4.2 Operators Drive the Evolution of VR Service Forms: From Virtual Cinemas to Live VR, and Then to Cloud-based VR Services 32 4.3 VR Service Development Recommendations for Operators 33 1 Background 1.1 Evolution of the VR Concept and Its Form Divisions The industrys definition for VR evolved from terminals to immersive experience. With the continuous development of technologies and the industry ecosystem, the VR concept will keep evolving. Therefore, the industrys discussion on VR is no longer limited to the form factor of terminals or how VR is realized. Instead, the focus now is experience, emphasizing key technologies, industry ecosystem, and integrated innovations in the application aspects. In this white paper, it is understood that VR/AR uses next-generation information and communications technologies in near-eye display, perception and interaction, rendering processing, network transmission, and content creation to build a new industry across terminals, channels, and the cloud, satisfy customers requirements for an immersive experience, and drive the expansion and upgrade of information consumption and the integrated innovation in traditional industries. The improvement of an immersive experience depends on breakthroughs and progress of relevant technologies, which is a staged evolution process. Therefore, the VR service development is divided into the following stages, with different development stages corresponding to different experience requirements. Figure 1-1 Levels of VR immersive experience Source: CAICT CAICT Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality White Paper (2018) Figure 1-2 VR immersive experiencenetwork requirements Source: Huawei iLab VR terminals evolve from one to many form factors, and from separated to integrated. In terms of terminal form factors, the mobile phone type has become the major terminal type at this stage. Globally, phone-based VR accounted for nearly 90% in 2016. By 2020, it is estimated that the penetration rate of PC-based and all-in-one VR terminals will rise to about 50% (Figure 1-3). As ICT giants such as Google, Facebook, and Apple held their 2017 global developer conferences (I/O, F8, and WWDC respectively), phone-based AR has become the mainstream for the mass market. Meanwhile, PC-based and all-in-one AR terminals such as Meta2 and Hololens dominate the enterprise market. In addition, under the influence of the self-driving cars and Internet of Vehicles (IoV) trends, built-in display-at-a-glance AR has become the emerging field. Ultimately, the forward-looking contact lenses form factor represents the industrys final expectation for AR design. In terms of terminal functions, VR generally includes AR. In the early stages, AR was usually discussed under the VR framework. However, with the continuous effort put into AR by the industry, AR and VR are gradually being separated. Specifically, VR and AR are mutually independent, with similarities in key components and terminal form factor, but differences in key technologies and application fields. Unless stated otherwise, this white paper discusses VR and AR in a general sense. VR uses isolated audio and video contents for an immersive experience, which poses high requirements on image quality. AR integrates virtual information to the real environment seamlessly, which poses high requirements on perception and interaction. In addition, VR focuses more on mass markets such as games, videos, live broadcast, and social media, whereas AR focuses more on vertical applications such as in different industries and for the military. As the technologies develop, VR and AR will be integrated. 4 Figure 1-3 Global penetration rate of major VR terminal form factors Source: HIS Figure 1-4 Categories of VR products Source: CAICT 1.2 VR Rises Because of Lowered Threshold, Focused Capital, and Policy Support The hardware threshold is significantly reduced. Since the advent of VR devices in 1962 to today and with the popularization of smart phones, the hardware costs for VR are significantly reduced. The prices of VR devices dropped from tens of thousands of dollars to a few hundred dollars, which is mainly due to the development of optoelectronics and microelectronics. In terms of optoelectronics, the displays for VR transformed from CRT to TFT-LCD/AMOLED, with ever decreasing volume and weight of the screens, resolution improved to FHD+, and response time shortened to microseconds. In terms of microelectronics, CAICT Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality White Paper (2018) the popularization of low-cost SOC chips and visual processing units (VPUs) has become the development hotspot of VR in the integrated circuit field. Capital investment direction is increasingly focused. After the Google Glass warm-up, Facebook acquired Oculus for USD 2 billion in 2014, sending a clear signal in the industry. Since then, global capital has been heavily invested in the VR field. The major ICT giants actively propose suggestions on development strategy, and many tech start-up companies are emerging. According to Digi-Capital statistics, the global investment on VR startups in 2016 reached USD 2.3 billion (excluding acquisition), with a year-on-year increase of over 200%. Geographically, China and the US have become the key development regions of the VR industry. VR startups headquartered in China and the US gained 20% and 60% respectively of the global investment on VR. In terms of investment fields, according to IHS statistics, development tools, games, and video contents gained 18%, 16%, and 11% investment respectively, ranking the top 3 in global VR investment. This reflects the changing factors that hinder VR popularization. That is, after the VR hardware threshold is lowered, the industry pays more and more attention to contents and applications such as games and videos, as well as exclusive development tools. Figure 1-5 Global investment on VR around 2014 Source: HIS Developing the VR industry has become the national strategy of countries around the world. The US government listed VR as one of the key fields supported by the National Information Infrastructure (NII) in the 1990s. The US Department of Defense attaches great importance to R&D and applications of VR, giving VR key support in the aspects of performance evaluation of weapon systems, equipment operating training, and commanding of large-scale military exercises. The US Department of Energy developed the Long-term Nuclear Technology Research and Development Plan in 2000, in which the importance of developing, applying, and verifying VR technologies was clearly pointed out. Several US congress representatives jointly announced the VR guidance team in 2017 to ensure support and encouragement for the VR industry from the congress. In addition, the US has also established research projects on VR. For example, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Education carried out pilots and demonstrations of VR on mental disease and primary and secondary school education respectively. The European Union began funding VR in the 1980s. In the Horizon 2020 released in 2014, the VR funding reached tens of millions of Euros. Japan released the Innovation 2025 Strategy for technology development planning in 2007, and Science, Technology, and Innovation Comprehensive Strategy 2014Innovation Bridge to the Future in 2014. Both documents defined VR as the key technology innovation direction. South Korea established a special fund of about CNY 240 million, funding nine emerging technologies as key national development fields, including VR, self-driving, and artificial intelligence. In addition, the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of South Korea plans to invest about CNY 2.4 billion from 2016 to 2020 to develop its national VR industry. The emphasis is to ensure the original technology R&D and industrial ecosystem improvements, and to reduce the current gap of two years between South Korea and the US in VR to half a year. Overall, VR development in the US is based mainly on enterprises and the government provides the platform. The US government attaches great importance to model applications of VR in various fields. To summarize, the European Union, South Korea, and Japan value top-level design and R&D of new technologies. They established special funds to guide the industry development of VR. In China, the government encourages the development of VR, listing it in multiple national strategy 6 documents, such as the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan of information, Made in China 2025, and Internet+. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Culture, and the Ministry of Commerce all released policies concerning VR. In addition, the provincial and municipal local governments proactively build industrial parks and labs to promote the development of local VR industries. By the end of 2016, nearly 20 provinces and municipalities in China started deploying the VR industry. Figure 1-6 VR industry development layout in so