非洲农村人口在移动：撒哈拉以南地区移徙动态和驱动力（英文版）.pdf

With the technical contribution of Rural Africa in motion Dynamics and drivers of migration South of the SaharaRural Africa in motion Dynamics and drivers of migration South of the Sahara Published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Centre de Coopration Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le DveloppementThe designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Orga- nization of the United Nations (FAO) or Centre de Coopration Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Dveloppement (CIRAD) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. Final status of the Abyei area has not yet been determined. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO or CIRAD in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO or CIRAD. ISBN 978-92-5-109974-2 (FAO) ISBN 978-2-87614-730-0 (CIRAD) FAO, 2017 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAOs endorsement of users views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via fao/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to copyrightfao. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (fao/publications) and can be purchased through publications-salesfao Cover design and photos: By Laurence Laffont using free of rights photos accessed on: pixabay - pixabay Citation: Mercandalli, S. & Losch, B., eds. 2017. Rural Africa in motion. Dynamics and drivers of migration South of the Sahara. Rome, FAO and CIRAD. 60 p.nnnnn Foreword This Atlas “Rural Africa in motion” is produced in a context where the challenges associated with large movements of refugees and migrants risk to mask the benefits of migration and its positive aspects. It is important to restate that migration is part of the development process and, as such, migrants have shaped the world we live in. In 2015, the stock of people migrated across international borders reached 244 million. However, des- pite public perception, the largest share of migrants, about 763 million according to the latest estimates, move within their own countries, to cities or to other rural locations. Circular and seasonal migration are also typical features of migration facilitated by improved communication and transportation networks. In 2016, the number of forcibly displaced persons reached an all-time high figure of 66 million people worldwide. More than 5 million refugees were located in sub-Saharan African countries. Around 15 percent of all international migrants are originating from Africa. In 2015, their number reached nearly 33 million, half of which migrated within the continent. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, most of the migration (70%) is taking place within Africa, and is likely to remain as such in the future. These migratory movements have been prompted by a complex and intertwined array of factors. People migrate to improve their livelihoods and in search of a better future. They move to escape poverty, food insecurity, lack of employment opportunities, as well as ethnic, gender and other forms of discrimination and marginalization. A growing number of forcibly displaced people leave their homes to flee conflicts, violence, persecution and human rights abuses. Climate change adds further complexities, as the com- bination of climate events and socio-economic factors are causing more and more people to leave agri- culture and rural areas. But rural people also move for other reasons related to access to better and higher education, as well as other services, and often due to family matters. Youth are particularly prone to migrate, in search of better opportunities and the fulfilment of their per- sonal goals and aspirations. Y outh in Africa are facing high under-employment and unemployment rates and many move away from rural areas because of the unattractiveness of low productivity agriculture. With around 380 million people entering the labour market by 2030 (of which about 220 million in rural areas), the challenge for sub-Saharan Africa in the next decades is to generate enough employment to absorb its booming labour force. Therefore, any plan to tackle the challenges associated with migration must take into account its agricultural and rural dimensions. Agriculture and rural development must be an integral part of any response to large migratory movements to harness the potential of migration for development. Throughout history, migrants have fuelled human progress, sparked innovation, spread ideas and shaped the world we live in. Migrants contribute to the economic development of their origin, transit and destina- tion countries, through knowledge, skills and technology transfers. In 2015, the total flow of international remittances received by sub-Saharan Africa alone was USD 32 billion, compared with USD 50 billion of ODA payments. Investing a portion of these remittances in farm and non-farm activities can create a virtuous circle of employment creation and inclusive growth. But nothing is automatic. The benefits of migration must be positively promoted through policies that jointly harness its potential and minimize its negative effects. In addition to programmes on agriculture and rural development, Early Warning and Early Action mechanisms, as well as social protection systems that are risk-informed and shock-responsive, can increase peoples resilience and reinforce efforts to end protracted crises and sustain peace. Achieving the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development will help provide people with sustainable livelihood alternatives in rural areas, facilitate safe, regular and orderly migratory movements, and support migrants as agents of development. The idea of this Atlas, resulting from the continued and fruitful collaboration between FAO and CIRAD, stems exactly from the need of new analytical tools that can improve our understanding of the complex and heterogeneous patterns and drivers of migration, helping us shape more coordinated and coherent actions. It aims at providing a stimulating overview on migrations dynamics and drivers in sub-Saharan Africa which will feed the policy debate between local stakeholders, governments and the international community. Kostas Stamoulis Assistant Director-General Economic and Social Development Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Jean-Luc Khalfaoui Director General in charge of Research and Strategy Center of International Cooperation in Agronomic Research for Development, CIRAD 6 nnnnn nnnnn Acknowledgements “Rural Africa in motion” is the result of a partnership between CIRAD and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO). It was prepared by CIRAD in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation (GovInn) and benefited from the financial support of FAO and CIRAD. GovInn is a joint research centre between the University of Pretoria (UP) and the University of the Western Cape (UWC), South Africa, and CIRAD. The centre supports the UNESCO-UNU Chair in Regional Integration, Migration and Free Movement of People. The completion of the Atlas has involved 20 authors whose list and affiliations are provided on page 57. The entire Atlas was coordinated by Sara Mercandalli and Bruno Losch (CIRAD, UMR Art-Dev, and GovInn, respectively at UP and UWC) with the continued support of Robin Bourgeois (CIRAD, UMR Art-Dev, and GovInn at UP). Technical support and feedback were provided by colleagues from the Social Statistics team within the Statistics Division (ESS) and the Decent Rural Employment Team within the Social Policies and Ru- ral Institutions Division (ESP) of FAO. In particular, the authors wish to thank Piero Conforti (ESS), Elisenda Estruch (ESP), Cristina Rapone (ESP), Clara Aida Khalil (ESS), Lisa Van Dijck (ESP), Giorgia Prati (ESP) and Carlo Angelico (ESP), for their valuable contributions and advice. Cartography was prepared by Audrey Jolivot and Jean-Claude Lorente (CIRAD, UMR Tetis). Jean-Claude Lorente was in charge of infographics. Design was prepared by Laurence Laffont. useful links: cirad.fr/en fao/home/en/ art-devrs.fr/ governanceinnovation/ regionswithoutborders/8 nnnnn Table of Contents FOREWORD .P 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.P 7 LIST OF FIGURES . P 10 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . P 11 Introduction . P 13 Rural migration and the new dynamics of structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa . p 14 PART I. Contrasted patterns and diversity of African migration . P 19 Spread 1. A lastly booming rural population and the youth employment challenge .p 20 Spread 2. Prevalent, contrasted intra-African migration patterns and new territorial dynamics .p 22 Spread 3. Diversity of migrants profiles .p 24 Spread 4. Harnessing diverse migrant remittance flows for development .p 26 PART II. Drivers of rural migration: spotlight on regional dynamics . P 29 Spread 5. West Africa: Lasting and fragile complementarities between agriculture and migration .p 30 Spread 6. Senegal: The fluidity of internal migration as an answer to local constraints .p 32 Spread 7. Zambia: Internal migration at the core of territorial dynamics .p 34 Spread 8. South Africa: Territorial imbalances but growing ruralurban linkages .p 36 Spread 9. Madagascar: Land and jobs as main drivers of rural migration .p 38 PART III. Rural migration driven by complexity . P 41 Spread 10. Migration drivers complexes: An historical perspective .p 42 Spread 11. Climate change: A complex driver of rural migration .p 44 Spread 12. Unpredictable but manageable futures .p 46 REFERENCES . P 49 SOURCES . P 53 NOTES .P 55 AUTHORS AFFILIATIONS.P 57 nnnnnIntroduction . P 13 Fig. 0.1: Frequency of criteria in the definition of rural Fig. 0.2: African States and case studies Fig. 0.3: The multifaceted drivers of rural migration Spread 1 . P 20 Fig. 1.1: Rural population in 2015 Fig. 1.2: Estimated rural population in 2050 Fig. 1.3: Annual cohorts entering the working age group in SSA (1950-2050) Fig. 1.4: Estimated demographic changes in selected regions and countries Fig. 1.5: Evolution of rural population in selected regions and countries Spread 2 . P 22 Fig. 2.1: Rural and urban migration by destination Fig. 2.2: Intra-Africa and overseas international migration (2015) Spread 3 . P 24 Fig. 3.1: Main reasons for migration (rural migrants) Fig. 3.2: Characteristics of international migrants per country in 2015 Fig. 3.3: Characteristics of rural migrants and migrant households Spread 4 . P 26 Fig. 4.1: Top recipients from the world (2015) Fig. 4.2: Top recipients from Africa (2015) Fig. 4.3: Main migration and in-kind remittances flows (2009-2010) Fig. 4.4: Remittances within Africa (2015) Spread 5 . P 30 Fig. 5.1: Modelling circular migration in the Sahel: the case of Tahoua (Niger) Fig. 5.2: Inherited migration systems and rural migration dynamics Spread 6 . P 32 Fig. 6.1: A representation of spatial dynamics Fig. 6.2