2018年农产品市场分析报告.pptx

2018年农产品市场分析报告,目 录,农产品观点概览关键因素分析投资策略,123,2000-03,2000-10,2001-05,2001-12,2002-07,2003-02,2003-09,2004-04,2004-11,2005-06,2006-01,2006-08,2007-03,2007-10,2008-05,2008-12,2009-07,2010-02,2010-09,2011-04,2011-11,2012-06,2013-01,2013-08,2014-03,2014-10,2015-05,2015-12,2016-07,2017-02,2017-09,2018-04,140120100806040200,160,1,8501,6501,4501,2501,050850650450250数据来源：XX XX,2,050,历史回顾农产品价格指数不原油价格呈正相关农产品指数不原油价格,谷物,油脂油料,软商品,农副产品,原油价格,CBOT玉米,CBOT小麦,黄大豆1号,黄大豆2号,豆油,豆粕,棉花,棉纱,鸡蛋,苹果,玉米淀粉,强麦,马来西亚棕榈油,NYBOT 11号糖,CBOT豆粕,油菜籽,NYBOT 2号棉花,CBOT大豆,CBOT豆油,棕榈油,菜籽油,菜籽粕,白砂糖,黄玉米,ICDX毛棕榈油,黄大豆1号,黄大豆2号,豆油,豆粕,棕榈油,油菜籽,菜籽油,菜籽粕,白砂糖,棉花,棉纱,黄玉米,玉米淀粉,鸡蛋,苹果,强麦,LLDPE,PVC,聚丙烯,PTA,甲醇,沥青,天然橡胶,燃料油,沪油,铁矿石,焦煤,焦炭,螺纹钢,动力煤,热轧卷板,线材,玻璃,锰硅,硅铁,胶合板,纤维板,阴极铜,铝,锌,镍,铅,锡,黄金,白银,沪深300指数期货,上证50股指期货,中证500股指期货,5年期国债期货,10年期国债期货,-2% -2% -2%,-1% -1%-2%-3%,0%,2%-2%,1%,0%,2%,5%,9%,3%-1%,4%,3%,3%,3%,6%,2%,0%,4%,4%,6%,5%,4%,0%-4%,-5%,6%,2%,0%0%,1%,1%-2%,2%,1%0%,2%,0%,0%,0%0%,-6%-8%,6%4%2%0% 0%-2%-4%,10%8%,-20%-30%,30%20%10%0%-10%,50%40%,农产品,能化,黑色建材,基本金属,金融,全商品:月度价格:变化8%7%,同比%,环比%,5月内外盘结构均分化,5月相对偏弱,数据来源：XX XX,-2%,-3%,-1%,-2%,-1%,-2%,0%,-2% -2%,2%,1%,0%,2%,5%,9%,-1%,-2%,-2%,2%,-2%,-4%,3%,3%,7%,-6%,-2%-4%,6%4%2%0%,8%,10%,-30%,-20%,10%0%-10%,20%,30%,内盘,外盘,行情回顾农产品:月度价格:内外盘:变化,同比%,环比%,大豆,豆油,豆粕,玉米,棉花,小麦,棕榈油,菜籽油,豆油,豆粕,菜粕,大豆,白糖,棉花,玉米,鸡蛋,数据来源：XX XX,资金表现,315%,-194%,-793%,354%,15%,117%,-19%,-4%,-4%,6%,11%,-534%-600%-800%-1000%,-200%-400%,0%,400%200%,600%,100000500000-50000,200000150000,250000,350000300000,400000,CFTC基金净持仏：同比偏多，环比上月有所下降农产品:期货和期权:CFTC:基金净多头持仓月度环比与同比,CBOT:农产品:期货和期权:基金净多头持仓,当月同比,当月环比,22%-15%,34%,2%,23%,-14%,223%,-9%,21%,-400,000,-250,000-300,000-350,000,-150,000-200,000,-100,000,-50,000,50,000,-50%,50%0%-12%,100%,150%,200%,250%,国内TOP20主力净持仏：偏空，且环比上月增长农产品:期货和期权:国内TOP20净多头持仓:月度变化,净多头寸,当月环比,观点概览：预计价格轴心上移 ，各品种节奏不同,软商品白糖棉花,谷物畜禽玉米鸡蛋,油脂油料豆油 菜油 棕油豆粕 菜粕,目 录,农产品观点概览关键因素分析投资策略,123,2010-03-15,1998-12-31,2000-01-07,2001-01-13,2002-01-20,2003-01-27,2004-02-03,2005-02-09,2006-02-16,2007-02-23,2008-03-01,2009-03-08,2011-03-22,2012-03-28,2013-04-04,2014-04-11,2015-04-18,菜籽油,黄大豆2号,黄大豆1号,棕榈油,玉米,豆油,豆粕,小麦,白糖,早稻,棉花,2,美国：各通胀期商品平均年收益,美国：现货指数超额通胀期年均收益,-15%,20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%,低通胀,温和通胀,中高通胀,高通胀,商品现货指数,商品超额收益指数,商品滚动收益,-30%,40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%,低通胀,温和通胀,中高通胀,高通胀,贵金属,工业金属,农产品与畜牧,能源,关键因素一：宏观对农产品价格形成支撑 中美国经验：商品对通胀的敏感度较高&预计农产品价格敏感性中性偏多,108642,CPI当月同比,2,中国：将CPI增速分为三个,中国：农产品在不同通胀时期价格表现,-20%,10%00%-2-10%,50%40%30%20%,中等通胀时期（3%5%）平均年化收益,低通胀时期（小于3%）平均年化收益高通胀时期（大于等于5%）平均年化收益,-4数据来源：XX XX,2009-10,2010-02,2010-06,2010-10,2011-02,2011-06,2011-10,2012-02,2012-06,2012-10,2013-02,2013-06,2013-10,2014-02,2014-06,2014-10,2015-02,2015-06,2015-10,2016-02,2016-06,2016-10,2017-02,2017-06,2017-10,2018-02,2011-01,2011-03,2011-05,2011-07,2011-09,2011-11,2012-01,2012-03,2012-05,2012-07,2012-09,2012-11,2013-01,2013-03,2013-05,2013-07,2013-09,2013-11,2014-01,2014-03,2014-05,2014-07,2014-09,2014-11,2015-01,2015-03,2015-05,2015-07,2015-09,2015-11,2016-01,2016-03,2016-05,2016-07,2016-09,2016-11,2017-01,2017-03,2017-05,2017-07,2017-09,2017-11,2018-01,2018-03,2010-01,2010-05,2011-01,2011-05,2011-09,2012-01,2010-09,2011-01,2011-05,2011-09,2012-01,2012-05,2012-05,2012-09,2013-01,2013-05,2013-09,2014-01,2014-05,2014-09,2015-01,2015-05,2015-09,2016-01,2016-05,2016-09,2017-01,2017-05,2017-09,2018-01,2018-05,2012-09,2013-01,2013-05,2013-09,2014-01,2014-05,2014-09,2015-01,2015-05,2015-09,2016-01,2016-05,2016-09,2017-01,2017-05,2017-09,2018-01,关键因素一：预计温和通胀，中性偏多农产品板块宏观经济环境良好&预计温和通胀,PMI仍处于上升阶段,CPI处于适中水平,猪价：供应大，全年同比持平或为负值，仍拖累CPI,原油：预期价格轴心上升，提振CPI,40200,100,120,140,全球原油价格,WTI原油 美元/桶,布伦特原油 美元/桶,20100数据来源：XX XX,5080406030,60,70,80,中国生猪价格,二元能繁母猪 元/kg,仔猪 元/kg,生猪 元/kg,0-2,108,美国:CPI:当月同比日本:CPI:当月同比,全球主要经济体制造业CPI中国:CPI:当月同比欧元区:HICP(调和CPI):当月同比印度:CPI:全部:同比,4540,6554502,6560,全球主要经济体制造业PMI美国:供应管理协会(ISM):制造业PMI 欧元区:制造业PMI日本:制造业PMI 印度:制造业PMI中国:制造业PMI,Jan-07,Jan-21,Feb-04,Feb-18,Mar-04,Mar-18,Apr-01,Apr-15,Apr-29,May-13,May-27,Jun-10,Jun-24,Jul-08,Jul-22,Aug-05,Aug-19,Sep-02,Sep-16,Sep-30,Oct-14,Oct-28,Nov-11,Nov-25,Dec-09,Dec-23,Jan-01,Jan-12,Jan-23,Feb-03,Feb-14,Feb-25,Mar-08,Mar-19,Mar-30,Apr-10,Apr-21,May-02,May-13,May-24,Jun-04,Jun-15,Jun-26,Jul-07,Jul-18,Jul-29,Aug-09,Aug-20,Aug-31,Sep-11,Sep-22,Oct-03,Oct-14,Oct-25,Nov-05,Nov-16,Nov-27,Dec-08,Dec-19,Dec-30,关键因素二：拉尼娜已转向正常天气区间目前值天气转换过渡期，天气不确性影响环比、同比均增强,数据来源：XX XX,322110-1-1-2-2,3,NOII：处于中性区域NOII,20182015,20172014,20162013,2012,2011,2010,厄尔尼诺(0.5),拉尼娜(7),厄尔尼诺(-7),关键因素二：拉尼娜影响退去，关注北美干旱、国内天气,北美：干旱存在由西南区向全美蔓延的可能,南美：阿根廷种植季缺水，收获季降雨过多,东南亚数据来源：XXXXXX,1988,1995,1998,1999,2000,2005,2007,2008,2010,2011,2016,1988,1995,1998,1999,2000,2005,2007,2008,2010,2011,2016,-1%,-1%,4%,9%,8%,-2%,4%,8%,13%,0%,2%,1%,5%,3%,3%,-5%,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,1988,1998,1999,2004,2010,2011,2017,2018*,马棕%变化（比上年）18%,印棕%变化（比上年）,关键因素二：气候过渡期，今年天气不确定明显增强,拉尼娜下南美大豆单产减产，较为明确,美豆单产略低于趋势值，,-31%,-5%,8%,-2%,-6%,-29%,-15%,1%,-25%-30%-35%,20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%,巴西同比1%-13%,阿根廷同比-9%,-20,0,20,40,60,美豆单产美国单产,与趋势差%,拉尼娜或正常天气下，棕榈油单产呈同比上升特征拉尼娜气候下棕榈油单产变化,类别,分品种,对价格影响,油脂油料软商品谷物畜禽,油脂蛋白粕白糖棉花及其纱玉米及淀粉鸡蛋,多空偏多中性偏空偏多中性偏多影响有限,-40数据来源：XX XX,玉米(千万吨),棉花(百万包),大豆(百万吨),小麦(百万吨),小麦(百万吨),玉米(百万吨),棉花(百万包),大豆(百万吨),豆粕(百万吨),豆油(百万吨),玉米(百万吨),棉花(百万包),大豆(百万吨),豆粕(百万吨),豆油(百万吨),玉米(百万吨),大豆(百万吨),豆粕(百万吨),豆油(百万吨),豆油,棉花,豆粕(百万吨),豆油(百万吨),白糖(百万短吨),大豆,玉米,0%,61,巴西2017/18年度面积增加；产量环比略增1%,阿根廷下降显著，收获季降雨较多，预计后期还将缩减18/19年度，北美减产，南美增产,-1%,2%,24%,44%,758,1,037,62-2%,748,1,056,5%-1%122 337355121,5%235246,5%5658,5%4750,-4%3736,-7% -3%21 12011620,1%4343 10,10,-3%99,10%8796,1%99,0%117117,0%3334,0%88,3341,3956,8%3134,8%89,3%33,0%33,0%2929,20.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%,40.0%30.0%,50.0%,6004002000,1,000800,1,200,全球-产量,美国-产量,巴西-产量,阿根廷-产量,欧盟-产量,印度-,产量数据来源：XX XX,关键因素三：17/18年南美减产、18/19年北美减产继南美减产后，预期18/19年度北美也将面临减产USDA:全球农产品:产量,同比增加,17/18,18/19,豆油%,大豆%,小麦%,玉米%,棉花%,大豆%,豆粕%,豆油%,小麦%,玉米%,棉花%,大豆%,豆粕%,白糖%,玉米%,棉花%,大豆%,豆粕%,豆油%,玉米%,大豆%,豆粕%,豆油%,玉米%,豆油%,棉花%,得益于南美、北美农产品减产，18/19年度农产品高库存压力将不断缓解,下半年主要看北美供需，“天气市” 预期强烈,-4%,-20%,-9%,-10% -5%,-2%,-14%,-20%,10%,-26%,0%,-5%,-18%,-3%,-1%,-7%,-3%,21%,41%,-10%,-5% -11% -13%,9%,15%,0%,-30%,0%-10%-20%,50%40%30%20%10%,0%,40%20%,120%100%80%60%,全球-库存消费比,美国-库存消费比,巴西-库存消费比,阿根廷-库存消费比,欧盟-库存消费比 印度-,库存消费比数据来源：XX XX,关键因素三：全球主要农产品供需预期趋紧预期18/19年度全球农产品供需呈趋紧走势USDA:全球农产品:库存消费比,同比增加,17/18,18/19,小麦,糖,豆油,棉花,糖,小麦,玉米,大豆,棉花,小麦,玉米,大豆,棉花,玉米,大豆,豆粕,豆油,棉花,小麦,玉米,豆粕,豆油,棉花,糖,大豆,大豆,豆粕,小麦,玉米,关键因素三：USDA5月供需报告下调北美农产品库消比,数据来源：XX,01-30,07-02,01-02,01-16,02-13,02-27,03-12,03-26,04-09,04-23,05-07,05-21,06-04,06-18,07-16,07-30,08-13,08-27,09-10,09-24,10-08,10-22,11-05,11-19,12-03,12-17,2016-01,2016-02,2016-03,2016-04,2016-05,2016-06,2016-07,2016-08,2016-09,2016-10,2016-11,2016-12,2017-01,2017-02,2017-03,2017-04,2017-05,2017-06,2017-07,2017-08,2017-09,2017-10,2017-11,2017-12,2018-01,2018-02,2018-03,2018-04,2018-05,12-31,关键因素三:北美大豆面积下降概率大，单产需关注干旱,数据来源：XX XX,甘蔗,玉米,食用油,蛋白粕,大豆,食糖,大豆,玉米,棉花,甘蔗,大豆,玉米,棉花,棉花,关键因素四：国内农产品目前库压大，后期预期下降预计18/19年度国内农产品产量预期增减各异,18/19年度产量:国内大豆、糖预期增加，其余下降,18/19年度农产品播种面积、单产预期普遍下调,5%,-1%,0%,4%,-6%,-3%,1,527,2,779,8,080,1,068,555,20,953,-8%,-6%,-4%,-2%,0%,2%,4%,6%,0,5,000,10,000,15,000,20,000,25,000,中国-产量,同比增加,17/18 /5,18/19 /5,8%,-1%,-5%,1%,-3%,-2%,-1%,0%,8,389,34,950,3,187,1,283,1,820,5,995,1,742,60,-6%,-4%,-2%,0%,2%,4%,8%6%,10%,0,5,000,10,000,15,000,20,000,25,000,35,00030,000,40,000,中国-播种面积数据来源：XX,中国-单产,中国农产品:供需中国农产品:供需,同比增加,17/18 /5,18/19 /5,食用植物油,油菜籽,菜籽油,棉花,棉纱,进口大豆,豆油,棕榈油,2012,2014,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2013,2015,2016,2017,价差:连棕-马棕:连续,价差:连棕-马棕:活跃,价差:连棕-印棕:活跃,价差(盘面):白糖:配额内 元,/吨,价差(盘面):棉花:活跃,价差(盘面):玉米:活跃,价差(盘面):白糖:配额外 元,/吨,进口大豆压榨利润,100%,农产品进口:去年同比呈现上升,100-,200,300,400,500,2,000-,4,000,6,000,8,000,10,000,12,000,农产品:进口:月度:万吨,进口大豆,棕榈油,豆油,油菜籽,菜籽油,棉花,棉纱600,数据来源：XX XX,#N/A,5,40,11,17,0%,0%,89%,4%-11%,1 -67%#N/A,-46%,11%-11%,10%-8%,-6%,-40%-60%-80%,20%0%-20%,80%60%40%,100%,1000,300200,500400,600,关键因素四：预计短期进口压力仍将上升，远期或将缓解18年3月份农产品进口继续上升农产品:进口:月度:万吨,上二月566,环比%,同比%,盘面利润仍利于海外农产品进口,196,2,423,1,159 1,210110% 27%-3% 7% #N/A,-4%0%,1,60419%1%,-7% 739-1%,300%200%18%-4%0%-100%,400%,600%500%,25002000150010005000,3000,40003500,农产品:内外价差:变化:元/吨,%,当月541%,环比%,同比%3,783,2014-04,2014-06,2014-08,2014-10,2014-12,2015-02,2015-04,2015-06,2015-08,2015-10,2015-12,2016-02,2016-04,2016-06,2016-08,2016-10,2016-12,2017-02,2017-04,2017-06,2017-08,2017-10,2017-12,2018-02,2018-04,菜籽:油厂库存,豆粕:库存量,菜籽油:油厂库存,棕榈油:商业库存+港口库存,新增工业库存:食糖:全国:月,进口大豆:港口库存,豆油:商业库存+港口库存,棉花:商业库存+工业库存,国产大豆：库存,玉米:北方+南方,关键因素四：目前库存压力高，需时间消化,403,695,#N/A,114,138,52,10,#N/A,#N/A,398,-1%,0%,-1%,-17%,4%,21%,-20%,9%5%,0%,-47%,12%,-60%,-50%,-40%,-10%-20%-30%,10%0%,30%20%,0,100,200,400300,600500,800700,主要农产品库存水平整体环比呈上升之势农产品:库存:月度:万吨,当月,环比%14%,同比%23%,-50,50,150,350250,450,550,-数据来源：XX XX,100,200,300,400,600500,800700,900,农产品库存增减不一，截止目前同比呈上升农产品:库存:月度:万吨,国产大豆：库存豆油:商业库存+港口库存棕榈油:商业库存+港口库存新增工业库存:食糖:全国:月,进口大豆:港口库存豆粕:库存量菜籽:油厂库存玉米：北方+南方,菜籽油:油厂库存,棉花:商业库存+工业库存,食用油,蛋白粕,大豆,玉米,食糖,棉花,06,07,01,02,03,04,05,08,09,10,11,11月,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,单位,2016,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2017,2月,12月,1月,3月,4月,5月,6月,7月,8月,9月,10月,12,关键因素四：下游消费预计将继续上升，利于库压减轻,纺织品出口呈现回升态势,2,预计农产品下游消费平稳上升,玉米淀粉产消量上升27%，料今年产能将继续扩增,140120,180160,200,240220,玉米淀粉月度消费量,2014,2015,2016,2017,-2%,23%,-6%,1%,21%,2%,28%25%21%21%19%16%,8%,-10%,24%20%,3%,11%,5%,-5%-6%,50000000,150000001%10000000,20000000,3000000025000000,35000000,-10%-15%,-5%,5%0%,10%,25%20%15%,30%,数据来源：XX XX,-0.3%,0.7%,0.2%,1.3%,0.4%,3.1%,-,5,000,15,00010,000,20,000,25,000,00,0,0000,0,00,同比增加,中国农产品:国内消费17/18 /5,18/19 /5,2,18年仐猪料需求同比上升，预示生猪存栏稳升,4663,3755,4281,4270,1500.0中国-国内消费,2500.0,3500.0,5500.04500.0,6500.0,7500.0,补栏指标:仔猪料:20家饲料厂监测样本,2018,2017,2016,2015,2014,2013,观点概览：预计价格轴心上移,软商品白糖棉花,谷物畜禽玉米鸡蛋,油脂油料豆油 菜油 棕油豆粕 菜粕,目 录,农产品观点概览关键因素分析投资策略,123,菜油,10,白糖,10,-10 弱,偏,菜粕,白糖棕榈油,豆粕,棉花玉米豆油 0菜油 0鸡蛋,区间上沿,投资策略：,-10,10,区间下沿,偏强,棉花玉米菜 0粕0,棕榈油菜油 豆油豆粕,鸡蛋,四季度,-10,10,10,区间下沿区间上沿,偏强,偏弱偏强10 -10,豆油棕榈油白糖,棉花豆粕菜粕,玉米00鸡蛋,区间上沿,二季度,-10,0,-1010,0,偏弱10 -10,区间下沿,偏强,偏弱-10,豆粕菜粕,棉花玉米鸡蛋棕榈油 豆油 菜油白糖,区间下沿区间上沿,三季度,一季度,01/02,01/16,01/30,01/02,01/16,01/30,02/13,02/13,02/27,03/13,03/27,04/10,04/24,05/08,05/22,06/05,06/19,07/03,07/17,07/31,08/14,08/28,09/11,09/25,10/09,10/23,11/06,11/20,02/27,03/13,03/27,04/10,04/24,05/08,05/22,06/05,06/19,07/03,07/17,07/31,08/14,08/28,09/11,09/25,10/09,10/23,11/06,11/20,12/04,12/18,12/04,12/18,01/02,01/16,01/30,02/13,02/27,03/13,03/27,04/10,04/24,05/08,05/22,01/02,01/16,01/30,02/13,02/27,03/13,03/27,04/10,04/24,05/08,06/05,06/19,07/03,07/17,07/31,08/14,08/28,09/11,09/25,10/09,10/23,11/06,11/20,12/04,12/18,05/22,06/05,06/19,07/03,07/17,07/31,08/14,08/28,09/11,09/25,10/09,10/23,11/06,11/20,12/04,12/18,投资策略：主要套利策略推荐,数据来源：XX XX,谢谢观看,