中国的“一带一路”：在亚洲展开双翅的巨龙（英文版）.pdf

Chinas “One Belt One Road”The Dragon Spreads its Wings over AsiaColliers RadarProperty Research | Asia6 March 2018 2 The Dragon Spreads its Wings over Asia | 6 March 2018 | Property | Colliers International Andrew Haskins Executive Director | Research | Asia andrew.haskinscolliers Terry Suen Senior Manager | Research | Asia terry.suencolliers Chinese investment in Asian property assets rose 34% in 2017, with interest focused on Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. Looking ahead over five years, we think Chinas ambitious One Belt, One Road project, coupled with the firm Chinese economy and RMB strength, will drive Chinese investment in emerging SE and South Asian markets. OBOR investment will be led by big infrastructure projects. Such projects will stimulate growth in wealth, enhancing existing investment possibilities. Most SE Asian property markets have long-run attractions, with Indonesia and the Philippines standing out. Shortage of stock suggests development projects with local partners will be key to market access, with opportunities centred in industrial and residential property.Executive Summary Despite capital controls, total Chinese investment in overseas property assets reached an all-time high of USD39.5 billion in 2017, up by 8% over 2016. Chinese investment in Asian property assets grew 34% to USD12.5 billion, and was focused on Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore. Chinese interest in Hong Kong will probably moderate in 2018, but we think it will stay high in Singapore where the office and residential markets have entered a multiyear upcycle. Singapore remains one of our preferred Asian investment property markets. Looking ahead over five years, Chinas ambitious One Belt, One Road project, coupled with the firm Chinese economy and RMB strength, ought to drive Chinese investment in emerging South East and South Asian markets. Large-scale investment in central Asian markets should come later. OBOR investment will be led by big infrastructure projects usually handled by state-owned groups. Such projects should stimulate growth in wealth in cities and regions along the projects chief corridors, enhancing existing investment opportunities. South East Asian countries mostly look attractive for property investment, although Indonesia perhaps stands out for long-term growth potential and the Philippines for breadth of development opportunities. Shortage of quality property stock suggests that development projects with local partners will generally represent the most effective strategy for accessing the markets. We expect these projects to target industrial and residential property in particular. While the OBOR project covers India and the country has huge long-run growth potential, Chinese capital is unlikely to be a driving force in India for political reasons. Pakistan is a big beneficiary of OBOR infrastructure investment, but it is too early to consider this country as a major investment destination. Chinese property investment in US, Europe, and Asia (USD billions) Source: Real Capital Analytics (property transactions greater than USD10 million including land sites; estimates by Colliers International 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020United States Europe Asia 3 The Dragon Spreads its Wings over Asia | 6 March 2018 | Property | Colliers International Contents Contents . 3 Chinese interest shifting to Asian property . 4 Economic and political factors explain interest in property abroad . 4 Chinese investment shifts from US to Asia and Europe . 4 OBOR infrastructure project to drive further Chinese investment in Asia . 6 Vision of One Belt, One Road . 6 Six infrastructure corridors . 7 Present state of investment in SE and South Asia . 8 Investment from China . 8 Investment from Japan. 9 Investment from South Korea . 9 SE, South Asia views: economy, infrastructure, property market . 10 Hong Kong . 10 Singapore . 10 Indonesia. 12 Philippines. 13 Vietnam . 14 Thailand . 16 Myanmar . 18 Malaysia . 19 India . 19 Pakistan . 21 4 The Dragon Spreads its Wings over Asia | 6 March 2018 | Property | Colliers International Chinese interest shifting to Asian property Economic and political factors explain interest in property abroad China has become an increasingly important player in global property markets. According to Real Capital Analytics (RCA), probably the most widely accepted data source for large property transactions, outbound Chinese real estate investment reached an all-time high of USD39.5 billion in 2017. This represented a seven-fold increase from 2012 and an 8% rise over 2016. The motivation for Chinese investors to acquire overseas property assets reflects both economic and political factors. Between 2012 and 2016, real GDP growth in China slowed from 7.8% to 6.7%, although growth picked up to 6.9% in 2017. Over this period Chinese enterprises faced a highly competitive business environment in their domestic market, and searching for attractive investment opportunities became gradually more difficult. Some enterprises will have concluded that buying overseas property provided an appealing investment option to obtain a high rate of return. More importantly, perhaps, China accumulated a large current account surplus, and the countrys foreign exchange reserves peaked at USD3.9 trillion in 2014. At this point the Chinese government promoted a going out policy intended to encourage Chinese sovereign funds and state-owned enterprises to expand foreign activities in areas such as resources, infrastructure and offshore financing. This encouragement was linked to a policy of internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) and a desire to improve the image of Chinese enterprises through the establishment of regional headquarters overseas. At the same time, releasing a portion of domestic capital for investment in foreign countries served as a strategy to reduce excess speculative activity in the domestic equity and real estate markets. An additional factor underlying heavy Chinese investment abroad was the weakening of the RMB between 2014 and 2016. In our opinion, the importance of this factor cannot be understated. Over that three-year period, the RMB weakened by 12.8% against the US dollar (meaning, to state the situation in reverse, that the US dollar strengthened by 14.7% against the RMB). While a weak currency in a given country makes buying overseas assets more expensive, it provides a powerful incentive to do so, since enterprises in that country will conclude that they can preserve the value of their capital by investing abroad. We think that Chinese enterprises invested heavily in US assets in particular over 2014-2016 in the expectation of continuing RMB depreciation. Chinese investment shifts from US to Asia and Europe The flood of capital outside China so concerned the Chinese authorities that they imposed restrictions on investment abroad in late 2016. Despite these controls, as we have seen, Chinese investment in foreign property assets reached a record level of USD39.5 billion in 2017. However, the composition of overseas investment has Source: Source: Real Capital Analytics (property transactions greater than USD10 million including land sites; estimates by Colliers International Figure 1: Chinese property investment in US, Europe and Asia (USD billions) 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020United States Europe Asia 5 The Dragon Spreads its Wings over Asia | 6 March 2018 | Property | Colliers International changed. As shown in Figure 1 above, according to RCA, Chinese investment in US property assets dropped 64% in 2017 from 2016, to USD5.9 billion. Conversely, Chinese investment in Asian property assets increased 34% to USD12.5 billion, while Chinese investment in European property assets surged 336% to USD18.7 billion. Investment in both Asia and Europe was up fourfold compared to the recent low point in 2014. However, the investment in Europe was swollen by one very large deal: the purchase by China Investment Corporation (CIC) for USD14.4 billion of Logicor, a company with a big portfolio of logistics properties. Excluding this deal, Chinese investment in European property assets would have been roughly flat last year. In our view, the changed focus of Chinese investment activity reflects the new situation of robust economic growth in China and currency strength. In 2017, real GDP growth accelerated in China for the first time in several years, although growth will probably moderate to about 6.4% in 2018. Healthy economic growth and lower concerns about Chinese financial stability have driven a sharp recovery in the RMB. Since the start of 2017, the RMB has strengthened by 9.9% against the US dollar (i.e. the US dollar has weakened by 9.0% against the RMB). More recently, the RMB has also rallied against the basket of currencies used by the Peoples Bank of China in setting exchange rates. We expect the RMB to stay strong, and accept Oxford Economics forecast of an exchange rate of USD1=RMB6.20 by end-2018.1 Figure 2: USD versus RMB: start-2014 to now Source: Bloomberg In simple terms, we believe that Chinese enterprises are now investing abroad for the opposite reason from the period 2014-2016: the economy and the currency are strong, so they feel that they can afford to do so. Since 1 Source: Oxford Economics, Country Economic Forecast, China (13 February 2018) their key motive is no longer to preserve the value of their capital, it is natural that they should have shifted focus away from the US, which is traditionally perceived as the worlds safest investment market. That said, Chinese investment in Asia in 2017 was heavily focused on reasonably safe gateway markets. Within Asia, Hong Kong (USD 6.9 billion), Japan (USD 2.3 billion), and Singapore (USD 2.1 billion) were the top three destinations for Chinese property capital in 2017. Together, these three markets accounted for over 90% of total Chinese investment in Asia of USD12.5 billion. Hong Kong alone accounted for 55%, partly due to heavy investment in undeveloped land sites. Chinese interest in undeveloped land sites in Hong Kong appears to have cooled significantly, although interest in completed buildings remains high. It therefore seems reasonable to expect Chinese investment in Hong Kong to decline moderately in 2018. At the same time, we should acknowledge persistent anecdotal evidence that the Chinese authorities have recently discouraged state-owned enterprises from active outbound investment except in connection with the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. OBOR investment is likely to take time to build up. For these reasons, we assume that aggregate Chinese investment in other Asian property markets will decline by 10% in 2018, from USD12.5 billion to USD11.2 billion (see Figure 1 above). Among the gateway markets, we expect Chinese interest to stay high in Singapore in particular, where we believe that the underlying office and residential markets have entered a multiyear upcycle. Over 2019 and 2020, we assume that aggregate Chinese investment in other Asian property markets will increase as demand for assets in One Belt, One Road countries starts to strengthen. 6.06.16.26.36.46.56.66.76.86.97.001/01/201403/10/201405/15/201407/22/201409/26/201412/03/201402/09/201504/17/201506/26/201509/02/201511/12/201501/20/201604/05/201606/15/201608/22/201611/07/201601/13/201703/29/201706/12/201708/17/201710/31/201701/08/2018 6 The Dragon Spreads its Wings over Asia | 6 March 2018 | Property | Colliers International OBOR infrastructure project to drive further Chinese investment in Asia Vision of One Belt, One Road Looking ahead, we expect Chinas ambitious One Belt, One Road project to provide an additional political incentive for Chinese enterprises to invest in Asian property. First outlined by Chinas President Xi Jinping in 2013, this project can be broken down into two parts: a maritime Silk Route connecting China to Europe via South East Asia, the Middle East and East Africa, and an overland Silk Route connecting China to Europe via Central Asia (see Figure 3 below). These routes recreate historical trading links. The ultimate intention appears to be to create an interlinked economic zone supported by substantial Chinese public investment and special lending schemes. President Xi explained his ideas further at the Belt and Road (B&R) International Forum which closed on 15 May 2017 in Beijing. During this two-day summit, the president pledged that China would commit additional funding to the project, raising combined public support and special lending schemes to RMB480 billion (USD69.5 billion)2. In its original conception, the One Belt, One Road project covered about 70 clearly named countries. However, the conception seems to have become more fluid; and the Chinese authorities appear very open to engagement with any countries or regional organisations along or near the two main Silk Routes (and indeed with countries further away). The Chinese vision is that One Belt, One Road will be led by major infrastructure projects (which in practice are likely to be handled by large state-owned groups). Over time, these projects should stimulate economic growth in the countries and cities along the main Silk Routes. This growth should help to eliminate poverty and improve the standard of living of people in the regions along the projects chief corridors. From the perspective of private-sector investors, this growth ought to enhance existing investment and development opportunities. From the perspective of China itself, we think the One Belt, One Road project ought to alleviate two problems: overcapacity in heavy industry and an imbalance of development between the developed eastern coastal areas and the less developed western areas. By exporting labour and knowledge in infrastructure-related industries such as construction, materials and equipment 2 See, for example, the report at news.cgtn/news/3d55444d33677a4d/share_p.html.