非洲2030：可再生能源未来路线分析报告（英文版）.pptx

Africa can deploy modern renewables to eliminate power shortages, bring electricity and development opportunities to rural villages thathave never enjoyed those benefits, spur on industrial growth, create entrepreneurs, and support increased prosperity across the continent.Modern renewables can also facilitate a cost-effective transformation to a cleaner and more secure power sector.Some technology solutions are relatively easy to implement but require an enabling environment, with appropriate policies, regulation,governance and access to financial markets. As a promising sign of things to come, several African countries have already succeeded inmaking steps necessary to scale up renewables, such as adoption of support policies, investment promotion and regional collaboration.Africa 2030 builds on a large body of background studies developed in close co operation with African experts. With momentumbuilding in support of renewable energy, IRENA is committed to further collaboration with governments, multilateral organisationsand existing national, regional and global initiatives. By making the right decisions today, African countries can usher in a sustainableenergy landscape for generations to come.3,FOREWORDAfrica faces an enormous energy challenge. Its growing population and economic progress has sent energy demand soaring. This calls fora rapid increase in supply on the continent, to which all forms of energy must contribute in the decades ahead. Africa therefore has a uniqueopportunity to pursue sustainable energy development as a basis for long-term prosperity.Africa is richly endowed with fossil-based and renewable energy sources. However, a continued reliance on oil and gas along with traditionalbiomass combustion for energy will bring considerable social, economic and environmental constraints. Tackling todays energy challenge onthe continent, therefore, requires a firm commitment to the accelerated use of modern renewable energy sources.Countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco and South Africa are leading this effort, while some of Africas smaller countries includingCabo Verde, Djibouti, Rwanda and Swaziland have also set ambitious renewable energy targets. Others are following suit, and renewableenergy is on the rise across the continent.Africa 2030, IRENAs comprehensive roadmap for the continents energy transition, illuminates a viable path to prosperity throughrenewable energy development. Part of an ongoing global REmap 2030 analysis, Africa 2030 is built on a country-by-country assessmentof supply, demand, renewable energy potential and technology prospects. It highlights possible roles for various renewable energytechnologies across the five regions of Africa until 2030.,Adnan Z. AminDirector-GeneralInternational RenewableEnergy Agency,4,TABLE OF CONTENTS,Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6INTRODUCTIONAfrican Energy Landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67List of abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70,PART 1,TECHNOLOGIES TO HARNESS AFRICAS ABUNDANTRENEWABLE RESOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12,1.1,Solar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,PART 2PART 3,1.2. Wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181.3. Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .201.4. Geothermal energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.5. Woodfuel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241.6. Biomass residues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261.7. Energy crops for liquid biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28TRANSFORMATION OF AFRICA WITH RENEWABLEENERGY: PROSPECTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .302.1. REmap 2030 for Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322.2. Renewable energy to fuel industrial growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.3. Renewable energy for power sector transformation . . . . . . . . . 382.4. Renewable energy to support lifestyle changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . 422.5. Renewable energy for rural community development. . . . . . . . 452.6. Spurring technology innovation and diffusion:biomass transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46WAY FORWARD TO ACHIEVING REMAP 2030PROSPECTS IN AFRICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .483.1. Strategic planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50National energy plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Regional energy plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523.2. Overview of the policy landscape and financing mechanisms. . 53Support for renewables in the power sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Support for renewables for rural electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Support for renewables for heating/cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60Support for renewables for transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Support policies to maximise renewable energy benefits . . . . 623.3. Accelerating the energy transformation in Africa. . . . . . . . . . . .64,5,TABLE OF CONTENTS,LIST OF FIGURES/TABLES/BOXESLIST OF FIGURES,Figure 1Figure 2Figure 3Figure 4Figure 5Figure 6Figure 7Figure 8Figure 9,Africas energy landscape: Present . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Breakdown of total primary energy supply of Africa, 2013. . . . . . . . . . 10African climate zones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Solar PV cost ranges in Africa by market segment and size. . . . . . . . . .17Modern renewable energy use in 2013 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Total final energy consumption and electricity demandin the industry sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Final renewable energy use in the industry sector in 2013and the share of modern renewable energy use in each region . . . . . 37Capacity development of REmap Options in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39Average regional substitution cost of REmap Options in 2030. . . . . . 41,Figure 10,Share of modern renewable energy use in buildingand transport sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,Figure 11Figure 12,REmap Options for the building sector by 2030,contribution to TFEC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44Ethanol and biodiesel use in 2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47,LIST OF TABLES,Table 1Table 2Table 3Table 4Table 5Table 6Table 7Table 8,Wind generation installations during 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Hydro generation and technical potential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Renewable energy use in 2013 and REmap Options for 2030 . . . . . . . 33Cumulative investment needs between 2015 and 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . .40Renewable energy targets of African countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51Support policies that have been used in Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54Programmes to support renewable energy technologiesfor heating in rural Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60REmap 2030 options for Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66,LIST OF BOXES,Box 1Box 2Box 3Box 4,Renewable energy analysis requires better biomass statistics . . . . . . 35National energy plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50Feed-in-tariff in Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Non-price competition in Ugandas small power,producer auctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55,Box 5Box 6Box 7Box 8Box 9Box 10Box 11Box 12Box 13Box 14,Mauritius fiscal incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55Renewable energy-based mini-grid solutions to expandaccess to electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Tanzanias policy and regulatory framework to supportsmall power producers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Incubation centres for energy enterprises:ECOWAS entrepreneur support facility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Private participation in Rwandan hydropower development. . . . . . . . 59Solar water heater programmes in Tunisia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61South Africas solar water heater programme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61Mandates for biofuel blending in Mozambique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62Renewables Readiness Assessment and advisory services . . . . . . . . . 62Solar Sister job creation initiative in sub-Saharan Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . 62,SUMMARYAfricaseconomyisgrowingatunprecedentedspeed.Oneofthecore challenges as African countries continue to grow and developis energy: meeting rising demand for power, transport and otheruses in a way that is economically sustainable and safeguardslivelihoods. Economic growth, changing lifestyles and the need forreliable modern energy access is expected to require energysupply to be at least doubled by 2030. For electricity it mighteven have to triple. Africa is richly endowed with renewableenergy sources, and the time is right for sound planning toensure the right energy mix. Decisions made today will shape thecontinents energy use of decades to come.The world is increasingly embracing modern renewable energytechnologies. For many years they have been supported becauseof environmental and energy security concerns but in a risingnumber of situations they are now seen as the most economicoption. The use of modern renewables is growing in Africa, andfostering this growth is imperative. African countries are in aunique position: they have the potential to leapfrog the traditionalcentralised-utility model for energy provision.,Africa 2030 is part of IRENAs global REmap 2030 analysis,which outlines a roadmap to double the share of renewables inthe worlds energy mix within the next 15 years. It is based ona country-by-country assessment of energy supply, demand,renewable-energy potential, and practical technology choices for,A Renewable Energy Roadmaphouseholds, industry, transport and the power sector. The resultsare shown for five African regions.Africa 2030 analysis identified modern renewable technologyoptions across sectors, across countries, collectively contributingto meet 22% of Africas total final energy consumption (TFEC) by2030, which is more than a four-fold increase from 5% in 2013.Four key modern renewable energy technologies with highestdeployment potentials for Africa are modern biomass for cooking;hydropower; wind; and solar power.The power sector presents significant opportunity to be trans-formed through the increased deployment of renewable energytechnologies. The share of renewables in the generation mix couldgrow to 50% by 2030 if the REmap Options in this report areimplemented. Hydropower and wind capacity could reach 100GWcapacity each, followed by a solar capacity of over 90 GW. Forthe power sector this would be an overall tenfold renewableenergy capacity increase from 2013 levels. It would result in areduction of 310 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (Mt CO2) inemissions by 2030 when compared to the baseline scenario.,In all regions of Africa except the North, hydropower willcontinue to play an important role. North, Eastern and SouthernAfrica can all derive renewable power from other sources, such aswind energy, while concentrating solar power (CSP) will matterspecifically in North Africa. Additional renewable power capacity,Kenya, Photograph: IRENA/R. Ferroukhi,7,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY,is expected from geothermal sources in East Africa, while solar photovoltaics (PV) willbe important in the North and Southern regions.This transformation would require on average USD 70 billion per year of investmentbetween2015and2030.Withinthattotal,aboutUSD45billionwouldbeforgenerationcapacity. The balance of USD 25 billion would be for transmission and distributioninfrastructure. With the REmap Options implemented, two thirds of the total invest-ments for generation capacity USD 32 billion come from renewables options.Realising this opportunity will create significant new business activity in Africa.Whilst the power sector is the most visible candidate for an energy transformation,opportunities in the heating and transport sectors are also significant. A completeoverhaul of Africas energy supply will require increased renewable energy penetrationacross the three sectors, and would provide enormous socio-economic benefits. Oneof the main ones would be the reduced reliance on the traditional use of biomass typically foraged wood in inefficient cookstoves. Modernising biomass use is not onlybeneficial for the economy but it will also improve human health and release womenand children from foraging to find enough supply of firewood. REmap identifiedoptions that reduce the use of traditional cookstoves by more than 60% by 2030(compared to 2013). That would result in significantly reduced health impacts ofindoor air pollution, which would translate to the reduced external costs of betweenUSD 20 billion and USD 30 billion in 2030. The benefits of such action would farexceed the cost.Whilst the resource base varies for renewables in Africa, all of its countries do havesignificant renewables potential. Their biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar orwind resources are among the best in the world. The abundance and high quality ofrenewable-energy resources render renewables economically competitive, in partic-ular as the costs of renewable technologies are rapidly decreasing. Recent renew-able-energy project deals concluded in Africa will deliver power at some of the lowestcosts worldwide.,