2020年全球石油市场（英文版）.pdf

A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit The global oil market in 2020: Softening demand dominates the outlookThe world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends.THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 1 Rising geopolitical risk 2 Falling expectations for economic growth 3 Market fundamentals: Supplies inching down 4 Supply-side wildcards: Russia and Iran 4 Market fundamentals: Demand shocks to dominate 2020 6 ContentsTHE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 2 T he global oil market has experienced several shocks so far in 2020. On the one hand, the administration of the US president, Donald Trump, launched an air strike in Iraq in early January that killed General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His killing has significantly increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, sending oil prices higher at the start of 2020. On the other hand, a novel coronavirus emerged in China in late January. This virus will dent GDP growth and energy demand in Chinathe main source of new growth in oil consumption putting downward pressure on oil prices. Rising geopolitical risk The effect of the spike in Middle East tensions on the price of oil has been fairly muted. The average price of Brent crude rose by nearly 5% on average, from US$66/barrel at the end of 2019 to a peak of US$68.9/b on January 6th 2020. Several factors had nudged up oil prices over the course of the fourth quarter of 2019, including dwindling supplies in late 2019 from Iran (which has maintained some exports, despite US sanctions) and signs that the OPEC+ group would consider deeper production cuts in early 2020. For a moment in early January, it looked as if the major escalation in tensions between the US and Iran could send oil prices soaring. However, oil prices quickly subsided following a restrained retaliation by Iran, when it made limited strikes on US military bases in Iraq, causing only minor damage. Heightened tensions in the Middle East remain a risk in 2020. As long as Mr Trump remains in office, any efforts to encourage US-Iranian talks or to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal (the Joint The global oil market in 2020: Softening demand dominates the outlook 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 10/02/2020 06/02/2020 04/02/2020 31/01/2020 29/01/2020 27/01/2020 23/01/2020 21/01/2020 17/01/2020 15/01/2020 13/01/2020 09/01/2020 07/01/2020 03/01/2020 31/12/2019 27/12/2019 24/12/2019 20/12/2019 18/12/2019 16/12/2019 12/12/2019 10/12/2019 06/12/2019 04/12/2019 02/12/2019 Source: Bloomberg. Average daily price of Brent crude oil (US$/barrel) Prices jump 4.4% (avg) after the killing of General Suleimani on Jan 3rd Concerns over the coronaviruss impact take hold Oil prices have dropped by nearly 20% since Jan 20th Prices fall 5.1% after Irans cautious response on Jan 8thTHE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 3 Comprehensive Plan of Action) have stalled. This increases the risk that a policy miscalculation will lead the two countries into an all-out war. It is possible that regional energy infrastructure will be targeted, particularly in third-party countries that risk being drawn into the conflict, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia. However, actions by both the US and Iran since the initial attacks confirm that neither side wants to engage in a full-on, direct conflict, as neither side has much to gain. Falling expectations for economic growth In contrast to its muted reaction to Middle East tensions, the market reaction to the emergence of the coronavirus has been larger and swifter. Oil prices lost nearly 20% of their value in the span of just over two weeks as the seriousness of the outbreak became clear, falling from US$65/b on January 20th to less than US$54/b on February 10th. This sharp movement highlights latent market fears about falling global oil demand in 2020. Even though the rate of Chinese real GDP growth has moderated in recent years, China remains the largest source of new oil consumption by far. China alone contributes some 30% of new oil demand each year, and more broadly, Asia contributes about 50% of new demand. The regions economic outlook is tightly linked to Chinas, which will magnify the impact of the outbreak of the virus. The coronaviruss ultimate impact on economic growth remains unclear. Based on scientific research around the virus and the speed of the authorities response (relative to their response time during the SARS outbreak of 2002-03), The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the virus to be broadly contained by end-March and eradicated during the second quarter. This implies a major hit to economic growth in China and the rest of Asia in the first quarter, as passenger travel, industrial production, goods trade volumes and consumer spending are all negatively impacted by quarantines, factory closures and the downturn in market sentiment. However, we believe that the Chinese governments strong stimulus measures will allow for a rebound in economic growth from the third quarter as some pent-up Sources: International Energy Agency actuals; EIU forecasts. Contribution to annual growth in oil consumption (000 barrels/day) -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Total OECD Other non-OECD Other Asia China 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 4 consumer demand is released. Overall, The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its forecast for Chinas real GDP growth in 2020 to 5.4% (5.9% previously). Market fundamentals: Supplies inching down Much of the volatility in oil prices since the start of 2020 is down to market sentiment, rather than real- time shifts in fundamentals. The current narrative around the oil market is one of excess supply and falling demand growth, but the fundamentals tell a more nuanced story. OPEC oil supplies are unmistakeably tighter heading into 2020. According to the real-time vessel data collected by CargoMetrics and published in our Oil Adequacy Index, seaborne crude oil exports from OPEC countries declined in every month but one in the second half of 2019, as the bloc has adjusted to the more tepid demand outlook for 2020. The largest declines took place in November (-3.9% month on month) and December (-1.7%) as OPEC member countries prepared to implement the new round of production cuts (500,000 barrels/day to be shared with Russia and other non-OPEC partners) that were agreed at the blocs December summit. We expect OPECs crude oil loadings to remain at this lower level in the first half of 2020. At an emergency meeting in early February, OPECs de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, pushed for even deeper production cuts, in response to the coronavirus. Although discussions are ongoing, we expect OPEC to align with Saudi Arabias temporary targets, in an effort to avoid sending oil prices even lower than they are currently. Supply-side wildcards: Russia and Iran So far, Saudi Arabia has made the deepest cuts, in an effort to set the tone for the broader group. Its seaborne crude oil exports (which represent about 95% of its total oil exports) contracted by 12% month on month in November and by a further 7% in December. Russia, the critical partner supporting the broader OPEC+ alliance, also largely met its targets in 2019: its seaborne crude exports Source: CargoMetrics. OPEC seaborne crude oil exports (000 barrels/week, monthly average) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Other OPEC Iran UAE Iraq Saudi Arabia Jan 20 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 2019THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 5 dropped by 10% in November and by a more modest 3% in December. However, Russias tolerance for further production cuts appears to be wearing thin. If Russia refuses to sign on to the latest round of emergency cuts, this could push Brent crude prices down into the US$50/b-US$55/b range for several weeks, until the Chinese authorities make progress on containing the coronavirus. Russia has leveraged its partnership with OPEC to significantly increase its geopolitical influence, which will remain an important factor in 2020. Iran has also been a big contributor to the overall decline in OPEC+ supplies in 2019, as its access to buyers of international oil has been increasingly limited under US sanctions. Since the start of May 2019, when the US revoked the sanctions waivers that had previously allowed Iran wider access to oil buyers, Irans weekly seaborne crude oil exports have averaged 580,000 b/droughly one-third of the 1.5m b/d that the Iranian government estimates is necessary to avoid economic collapse. Serious domestic protests broke out in Iran in December about a planned fuel price rise across the country. As the Iranian government has come under increasing financial, diplomatic and social pressure, tensions have built across the region. Since late January, however, Irans total crude oil shipments have risen significantly, to an average of 9.5m barrels per week, compared with an average of 4.7m barrels per week in the eight weeks before that. What this tells us is that ChinaIrans only consistent buyer of large supplies of oil, in addition to Syriacould be stockpiling cheaper Iranian crude in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, which has depressed oil prices. Pinpointing the exact destination of Iranian exports remains difficult, as ships continue to use techniques to evade sanctions, including turning off ship location broadcasts for extended periods of time and performing multiple ship-to-ship transfers. Nonetheless, data collected by CargoMetrics confirm that the majority of shipments in the past three weeks have been headed towards East Asia, where China remains the only consistent buyer of Iranian crude. Iran is therefore likely to see strong Chinese demand in the coming weeks, but this may fall off in March as China builds up comfortable stockpiles. 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Russia Saudi Arabia Jan 20 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 2019 Source: CargoMetrics. Seaborne crude oil exports (000 barrels/week, monthly average)THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET IN 2020: SOFTENING DEMAND DOMINATES THE OUTLOOK The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020 6 Market fundamentals: Demand shocks to dominate 2020 Market fears about falling oil demand are not misplaced, but they have probably been exaggerated by the outbreak of the coronavirus and the resulting economic uncertainty. On the assumption that the spread of the coronavirus will be contained by end-March, we have revised down our forecast for Chinas annual oil demand growth in 2020 to 2.5%. This is only slightly below our previous forecast, of 3%, which already assumed a sharp slowdown in growth in energy-hungry sectors such as manufacturing and construction as Chinas economy shifts towards consumer spending and services. However, this is a big fall from China recent oil consumption growth, which averaged just under 4% per year in 2016-19. Given Chinas outsized impact on global oil consumption trends, we now expect global oil demand to expand by just 0.9% in 2020 (from 1% previously), which would be the slowest rate of growth in three years. Heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iranand across the Middle East more genera