亚洲的未来：解锁亚洲企业的价值与绩效（英文版）.pdf

Future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate AsiaThe future of AsiaDecoding the value and performance of corporate AsiaDiscussion paper May 2020Authors: Chris BradleyWonsik ChoiJeongmin SeongBen StretchOliver TonbyPatti WangJonathan WoetzelMcKinsey Global InstituteSince its founding in 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has sought to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. As the business and economics research arm of McKinsey it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports for free, please visit mckinsey/mgi.Contents1. Understanding Asias corporate performance 1Asia is now home to 43 percent of the worlds largest companies 2Asias capital paradox: Rapid scaling has not translated into economic profit 6Three main drivers have lowered the profits of large Asian companies 9Where do Asian firms outperform and underperform? 14Managing through volatility and short-term turbulence 17Asia could unlock $440 billion to $620 billion of economic profit by improving firms performance and investing in value-creating sectors 182. Directions for corporate development 27Pharmaceuticals and healthcare: Advanced Asia and China can drive drug innovation, and Emerging Asia, Frontier Asia and India, and China on digital health 29Consumer goods and services: Asian companies can build scale and brands while leveraging digital platforms 34Energy and materials: Asian companies can lead the global energy transition toward new and sustainable sources 39Real estate: Asian firms can benefit from urbanization trends by developing new competencies and enhancing productivity through technology 43Banking: The environment has become more challenging for Asian banks, creating pressure to scale up and continue digital innovation 493. Positioning for the post-pandemic world 53Exploring opportunities ahead 54Manage multiple time horizons through “plan-ahead” teams 55Technical appendix 57Acknowledgments 59iThe future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate AsiaIn brief Decoding the value and performance of corporate AsiaCOVID-19 is an unprecedented global challenge in the post-World War II period. This pandemic has proven to be not only a public health crisis, but also a major disruption to supply chains that may permanently change long-standing business practices to create a “next normal.” But Asia has come through crisis periods before and emerged stronger for itand there is reason to believe it can do so again. The dynamism, speed, and agility of Asian companies have given the region resilience, enabling it to achieve macroeconomic stability in a volatile world. Asian corporations have grown rapidly and risen to global prominence over the past decade (between 200507 and 201517). However, bigger has not always meant better, at least in terms of economic profit, a measure of value creation and companies ability to beat the market. As a group, Asian companies lag behind their counterparts in the rest of the world despite the regions enormous market opportunities. Why should that be? By taking a deeper look at sectors and individual companies, we attempted to answer this question, and we identified many opportunities for growth and productivity along the way. Over the past decade, $1 of every $2 in new investment made worldwide went to Asian firms. This influx of capital has enabled them to scale up, achieving size and reach in line with the market opportunities at stake. Today, 43 percent of the worlds largest companies by revenue are headquartered in Asia. However, for most of the regions companies, capital inflow and revenue growth have not translated into higher economic profit (that is, profit after subtracting the cost of capital). Ten years ago, it took 80 cents of invested capital to earn $1 of revenue, but today it takes almost $1.10 to earn the same $1. The world has been awash in capital, driving down returns. As a result, economic profits worldwide deteriorated from $726 billion in the three-year period spanning 200507 to a loss of $34 billion in 201517. Asia accounted for nearly half of that fall, as $152 billion in economic profits swung to a loss of $206 billion just a decade later. Three major factors explain Asias declining economic profitability over the decade we studied. A cyclical downturn in energy and materials, which has affected this sector worldwide, is the biggest factor, accounting for 44 percent of the decline. Another one-third of the drop can be attributed to the allocation of capital to value-destroying sectors, a phenomenon that occurs throughout the region but is particularly pronounced in China. The remainder of the decline is due to the underperformance of Asian firms relative to their global peers.ii McKinsey Global Institute Our simulation suggests that Asia could potentially unlock $440 billion to $620 billion of economic profit from two major opportunities. The first is improving the performance of firmsspecifically, lifting about 200 of the regions companies out of the bottom quintile of performers into the middle and boosting an additional 250 companies from the middle of the curve into the top quintile. The second is investing $3 trillion to $4 trillion over time in value-creating sectors; some of this may involve reallocating existing capital away from other sectors. Looking specifically at the performance of firms, Asia is overrepresented in the bottom quintile and underrepresented in the top quintile of firms as compared with the global average. This is partly due to endowment and the reality that Asian firms have been overrepresented in lower R they may need to embrace consolidation to add scale and deepen their use of digital technologies. There are many opportunities for Asian corporations to build capabilities to sustain long-term growth in what will be a more volatile context in the wake of the COVID-19 shock. Corporations can accelerate digital adoption and thereby unlock productivity; build scale by exploring M and be bold and agile in the management of portfolios. In addition, business leaders need to manage for multiple time horizons, putting in place plan-ahead teams. Over the past two decades, the growth of large Asian corporations has radically altered the worlds corporate landscape. Now these companies are entering a new phase in which their challenge will be not simply growth but also productivity. An external shock of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic may only accelerate the widening of the gap between underperforming and outperforming companies. Looking ahead to a post-pandemic world, resilient Asian firms may be able to define the “next normal.” iiiThe future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate Asiaiv McKinsey Global Institute We live in a turbulent world, with geopolitical tensions and an unprecedented global pandemic dominating headlines and the minds of decision makers. While the focus today is rightly on the immediate crisis response, these events highlight the importance of resilience for both governments and the corporate world. The spread of COVID-19 has been a crisis not only for healthcare, but for entire economies. Efforts to combat the virus through physical distancing have hit many sectors, including travel and hospitality; put pressure on many consumer-facing businesses; and disrupted the many global supply chains that run through the region. But Asia has coped with adversity before and emerged stronger for it. Lessons learned during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, for example, changed public policy and private-sector choices; as a result, Asia came through the 2008 global financial meltdown relatively unscathed. The performance of large corporations matters to the fortunes of workers, consumers, investors, savers, and even the stability of national economies. Asias corporate giants have experienced a tremendous growth phase, but their next chapter will be about creating value and sustaining performance over the longer term. Volatility will always pose challenges, but Asian firms have proven to be nimble and dynamic in the way they respond. With the pandemic, Asias corporations will need to continue to expand internationally and push ahead with innovation, and the regions horizontally integrated conglomerates will have to demonstrate the benefits of diversification in an increasingly volatile context. In a post-pandemic world, Asian companies can play a major role in defining the “next normal.”1In this next phase, they will have to broaden their focus beyond growth and staking out market positions to emphasize productivity and performance. In Chapter 1 of this paper, we look back over the past decade to assess Asias capital paradox, which has fueled the rising scale of corporate Asia but produced declining economic profit. We examine the factors causing this phenomenon, then lay out the size of the opportunity that could be realized through improved firm performance and more efficient capital allocation. In Chapter 2, we look at five specific sectors to identify the opportunities for Asian companies. In Chapter 3, we suggest how companies can position themselves for the post-pandemic world.1Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal, March 2020, McKinsey.1. Understanding Asias corporate performance1The future of Asia: Decoding the value and performance of corporate AsiaAsia is now home to 43 percent of the worlds largest companies A huge wave of capital has flooded into Asias corporations in recent years, with aggregate investment tripling over the past decade. More than $1 of every $2 in new investment worldwide over this period went into firms that call Asia home. In fact, $1 of every $3 in global investment went to China. This funding has evidently helped many Asian companies scale up rapidly. We use the share of companies in the G5000our term for the 5,000 largest firms in the world by revenueas a proxy for broader trends in Asias corporate landscape (see Box 1, “Our approach to assessing corporate performance”). In the past decade alone, Asian companies have increased their share of the G5000 by six percentage points. Asia now accounts for 43 percent of the list, a larger share than any other region in the world. In comparison, Europe has 25 percent of the G5000, and North America (Canada and the United States) has 24 percent (Exhibit 1). The increased prominence of Asian companies is to be expected as more of the worlds economic activity shifts toward the region. Yet the speed of their rise is still striking, particularly since the entry bar to the G5000 is now set much higher. To enter this exclusive club in 201517, a company needed revenue of $1.3 billiondouble the required level only ten years ago. Furthermore, Asia is the only region with rising representation over this period. North Americas share of the G5000, for instance, fell by four percentage points, and Europes fell by two percentage points.Exhibit 1Asia accounts for 43 percent of the worlds largest firms.Source: McKinsey Corporate Performance Analytics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1. nullarnullest by renullenue.nullte: nullinullures may not sum to 1nullnull because of rounnullinnull. Worlds 5,000 largest firms (G5000) by region1nullRevenuenull nulltrillionnullnullnullnullnull nullnullnullnullrth Americanullst of nullrlnullnull1null null1nullnullnull nullnullEuropeAsia1nullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnullnull nullnullnullnull1null null1nullnull1nullnullnull2 McKinsey Global Institute Representation in the G5000 is also shifting within Asia itself. The number of Japanese firms making the cut today has dropped by 300 from ten years ago. Singapore and South Korea largely maintained their representation at 40 and 160 companies, respectively. However, Chinese companies have more than doubled their share of the G5000 in the past decade to more than 900 firms. The number of Indian firms represented has also nearly doubled from a lower base of 85 to 142, the seventh-highest share. Companies from emerging Asian economies (including Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) now have a presence on the listand for the first time, Bangladesh has a company in the G5000. Joining the G5000 matters because it reflects economic momentum. As firms grow and become more corporatized, they can more easily access financing, accumulate capital, and connect with the global economy. Larger corporations often tap into global demand and drive exports. They typically have higher productivity and productivity growth as well as lower marginal costs to expand than smaller businesses. Large firms generate a larger share of GDP in Advanced Asia, China, Europe, and the United States than those in other parts of Asia (Exhibit 2). High-performing emerging markets tend to have about twice as many large firms as other emerging markets, but those firms are still only about half as large on average (by revenue) as those in high-income economies.2Asias large firms play different roles in their national economies. China and the economies of Advanced Asia have higher corporatization rates (that is, a higher share of GDP generated by large firms), while Emerging Asia, and Frontier Asia and India have lower corporatization rates, which largely reflect their levels of economic development. However, as we have seen with the patterns of G5000 representation to date, firms from Emerging Asia, Frontier Asia and India will likely continue to rise as the “Asian century” progresses.32Outperformers: High-growth emerging economies and the companies that propel them, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2018.3Asia is a highly diverse region; there is no single Asia but many. We identified four distinct groups of economies based on scale, economic development, interactions with one another, and connectedness to the world. Advanced Asia (which consists of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea), provides significant capital and technology to its neighbors. China (which comprises mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is large and distinct enough to stand on its own. It anchors the region, providing connectivity and innovation. Emerging Asia (which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) is a culturally diverse group that provides labor and the potential for long-term market growth. Finally, Frontier Asia and India (a group that includes Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan) accesses a broad base of trade partners and investors, and provides growth opportunities. The complementary nature of these groups can make Asia more prosperous and resilient. See The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2019.3The future of Asia: D