世界就业和社会展望：2018趋势（英文版）.pdf

TRENDS2018WORLDEMPLOYMENTSOCIALOUTLOOKILO World Employment and Social Outlook   TRENDS 2018International Labour Office  GenevaWORLDEMPLOYMENTSOCIALOUTLOOKTRENDS 2018World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 International Labour Office Geneva: ILO, 2018ISBN  978-92-2-131535-3  (print) ISBN  978-92-2-131536-0  (web pdf)  ISBN  978-92-2-131537-7  (epub)International Labour Office employment / unemployment / labour policy / economic recovery / regional development / Africa / Asia / Caribbean / Europe / EU countries / Latin America / Middle East / North America / Pacific13.01.3The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers.The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval.ILO publications and digital products can be obtained through major booksellers and digital distribution platforms, or ordered directly from iloturpin-distribution. For more information, visit our website: ilo/publns or contact ilopubsilo.Copyright International Labour Organization 2018First published 2018Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: rightsilo. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications.Libraries, institutions and other users registered with a reproduction rights organization may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit ifrro to find the reproduction rights organization in your country.ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data This publication was produced by the Document and Publications Production,  Printing and Distribution Branch (PRODOC) of the ILO. Graphic and typographic design, layout and composition, copy editing, proofreading, printing, electronic publishing and distribution.PRODOC endeavours to use paper sourced from forests managed  in an environmentally sustainable and socially responsible manner.Code: DTP-WEI-CORR-REPROAcknowledgements iiiAcknowledgementsThe World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018 was prepared by the Labour Market Trends and Policy Evaluation Unit of the ILO Research Department, headed a.i. by Veronica Escudero. The report was produced by Stefan Khn, Santo Milasi and Sheena Yoon. Elva Lopez Mourelo and Christian Viegelahn provided important contributions. Judy Rafferty provided valuable research assistance. The forecast data underlying this report are derived from the ILO Trends Econometric Models, managed by Stefan Khn and Steven Kapsos. The report would not have been possible without the feedback and baseline labour market information provided by the team led by Steven Kapsos, notably David Bescond, Roger Gomis, Rosina Gammarano, Yves Perardel and Marie-Claire Sodergren of the ILO Department of Statistics. Excellent comments and suggestions were also provided by L. Jeff Johnson, Deputy Director of the Research Department and Sangheon Lee, Director a.i. of the Research Department.The ILO Research Department wishes to acknowledge the comments and suggestions provided by Deborah Greenfield, Deputy Director-General for Policy and James Howard, Senior Adviser to the Director-General. The team would like to acknowledge the input and suggestions of ILO colleagues including Adam Elsheiki, Akira Isawa, Antonia Asenjo, Catherine Saget, Christian Viegelahn, Claudia Ruiz, Elizabeth Manrique Echeverria, Eric Gravel, Fernanda Dutra, Frank Hagemann, Guillaume Delautre, Helmut Schwarzer, Ira Postolachi, Jeronim Capaldo, Juan Chacaltana, Ken Chamuva Shawa, Maria Jos Chamorro, Mariangels Fortuny, Pelin Sekerler Richiardi, Richard Horne, Roger Gomis, Sara Elder, Steven Kapsos, Takaaki Kizu and Yves Perardel. Excellent comments were also received from Dawn Holland (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) and Damian Grimshaw (University of Manchester). The authors are also grateful for the suggestions from the ILO Regional Offices for Africa, the Arab States, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.Table of contents vTable of contentsAcknowledgements iiiExecutive summary 11. Global employment and social trends 52. Employmentand socialtrendsby region 11Africa 11Americas 15Arab States 18Asia and the Pacific 20Europe and Central Asia 233. Structuraltransformationand implicationsforfuturejobquality 29Long-term trends in sectoral employment 30Sectoral variation in employment arrangements and working conditions 33Projected change in employment conditions due to sectoral employment trends 404. Population ageing and future labour market challenges 45AppendicesA. Country groupings by region and income level 53B. Labour market estimates and projections 55C. Changes to the estimates and projections: Trends Econometric Models (TEM) 2017 versus 2016 59D. Countries, sources and periods used in the analysis of employment conditions at the sectoral level 61E. Labour market and social statistics by ILO region 64Bibliography 79vi World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2018Boxes1.1 Slow growth: The new normal? 51.2 Reducing decent work deficits in times of low growth 61.3 The revision of global unemployment 71.4 Latest trends in the social unrest index 93.1 Do firms matter? SMEs and the working poverty gender gap 393.2 Estimating the impact of sectoral employment change on employment conditions 404.1 The impact of population ageing on the economy 464.2 Boosting the care industry for the future of (decent) work 49Figures1.1 Comparison of global unemployment rates and levels, ILO Trends Econometric Models,  November 2016 and November 2017 71.2 Change in the social unrest index, 201617 91.3 Share of global labour force by region, 1990 and 2030 (percentages) 102.1 Composite measure of labour underutilization and unemployment rate, 200016 (percentages) 162.2 Share of informal employment by sector of activity, latest year (percentages of total employment) 182.3 Employment shares by aggregate sector in 1991, 2005 and 2016 (percentages) 222.4 Share of informal jobs by sector, latest year (percentages of employment) 232.5 Unemployment and potential labour force, 2016 (percentages) 252.6 Employment growth decomposition by type of contract in the Euro Area, 200916 (percentages) 263.1 Employment shares by aggregate sector and income group, 19922025 313.2 Projected change in employment share by detailed sector, 201725 323.3 Incidence of vulnerable and informal employment by sector and income group 343.4 Incidence of temporary and part-time employment by sector and income group 363.5 Incidence of different working conditions by sector and income group 383.6 SME employment share by country income group, 200316 (percentages) 393.7 Average change in working poverty gender gap, 200316 (percentage points) 393.8 Impact of sectoral employment change on employment indicators, 201725 414.1 Old-age economic dependency ratio, 19902030 (percentages) 454.2 Average age of the labour force, 19902030 (years) 47C1 Decomposition of unemployment revision into its components, 2017 60Tables1.1 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, 200719 82.1 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Africa, 200719 122.2 Unemployment trends and projections, Northern America, 200719 152.3 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Latin America and the Caribbean, 200719 172.4 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections, Arab States, 200719 192.5 Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends and projections,  Asia and the Pacific, 200719 212.6 Unemployment trends and projections, Northern, Southern and Western Europe, 200719 242.7 Unemployment, employment and vulnerable employment trends and projections, Eastern Europe and Central and Western Asia, 200719 27C1 Comparison of global unemployment levels and rates, November 2017 versus November 2016 59E1 Unemployment rate and total unemployment: Trends and projections 200719 64E2 Vulnerable employment rate and total vulnerable employment: Trends and projections 200719 65E3 Working poverty rate and total working poverty: Trends and projections 200719 65Executive summary 1Executive summaryGlobaleconomicgrowthhasreboundedandisexpectedtoremainstable butlowGlobal economic growth increased to 3.6 per cent in 2017, after hitting a six-year low of 3.2 per cent in 2016. The recovery was broad based, driven by expansions in developing, emerging and developed countries alike. Future growth is likely to stay below 4 per cent, as economic activity normalizes in most major economies without significant stimulus and fixed investment remains at a moderate level.Globalunemploymentremainselevatedatmorethan190 millionThe latest developments in global unemployment are also mixed. According to the ILOs new estima-tion, based on improved data sets and methodologies, the global unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.5 per cent in 2018 (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), marking a turnaround after three years of rising unemployment rates. However, with a growing number of people entering the labour market to seek employment, the total number of unemployed is expected to remain stable in 2018, above 192 million. In 2019, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain essentially unchanged, whereas the number of unemployed is projected to grow by 1.3 million.Vulnerable employment is on the riseWith these improvements in employment projected to be modest, the number of workers in vulner-able forms of employment (own-account workers and contributing family workers) is likely to increase in the years to come. Globally, the significant progress achieved in the past in reducing vulnerable employment has essentially stalled since 2012. In 2017, around 42 per cent of workers (or 1.4 billion) worldwide are estimated to be in vulnerable forms of employment, while this share is expected to remain particularly high in developing and emerging countries, at above 76 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively. Worryingly, the current projection suggests that the trend is set to reverse, with the number of people in vulnerable employment projected to increase by 17 million per year in 2018 and 2019.The pace of working poverty reduction is slowingSimilarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.Emerging countries, on the other hand, achieved significant progress in reducing extreme working poverty, which is expected to affect less than 8 per cent (around 190 million) of workers there in 2017. The incidence of extreme poverty should continue to fall, translating into a reduction in the number of extreme working poor by 10 million per year in 2018 and 2019. Nevertheless, moderate working poverty, in which workers live on an income of between US$1.90 and US$3.10 per day in PPP, remains widespread, affecting 430 million workers in emerging and developing countries in 2017.2 World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2018Significantvariationsinemploymentoutcomescontinueto exist between regions and countriesThe world continues to experience diverse trends in employment outcomes. Developed countries are expected to enter their sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, falling to 5.5 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2007. Yet many countries continue to report high rates of labour underutilization, with large shares of discouraged workers and growing incidence of involuntary part-time employment.By contrast, emerging countries have experienced a significant increase in unemployment rates between 2014 and 2017, driven by major economic downturns, in part due to the commodity price slump in many large economies, such as Brazil and the Russian Federation. The year 2018 marks a turning point, as the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.5 per cent (from 5.6 per cent in 2017), which would translate into an increase in the number of unemployed in emerging countries of around 0.4 million in 2018 and 1.2 million in 2019.Unemployment in developing countries is expected to increase by half a million per year in both 2018 and 2019, with the unemployment rate remaining at around 5.3 per cent. For many developing and emerging countries, however, persistent poor-quality employment and working poverty pose the main challenges.InequalitiesinlabourmarketoutcomespersistUnderlying these aggregate labour market and social trends are disparities across a number of de-mographic groups. Gender disparities are of particular concern. On average, women are less likely to participate in the labour market, facing a global gender gap in participation of over 26 percentage points, and are less likely to find a job when they do participate. These gaps are particularly wide in Northern Africa and the Arab States, where women are twice as likely to be unemployed as men. Once in employment, women face segregation in terms of the sector, occupation and type of employment relationship, resulting in restricted access to quality employment. For instance, 82 per cent of women in developing countries are in vulnerable forms of employment in 2017, compared to 72 per cent of men.The lack of employment opportunities for youth (i.e. those under 25 years of age) presents another major global challenge. Young people are much less