20230928_德邦证券_基础化工行业证券研究报告：磷肥供给去化抬高价值中枢磷矿自给企业成本优势显著_31页.pdf

0 S0120521020005 liji3|2023 9 281 2022 1945 2112 928 1298 2018-12.46%+1.76%2016 2023 1-8 2021 9 13 2022 46.9%42.8%22H2 22H1 22.51%20.82%2023 1-8 15.2%51.0%2022 82.09%82.25%67.12%69.86%1281 YWFUuNqNtQqRrPoNsPqPnM7NaO9PtRpPnPmPeRqRpPjMpPzQ9PrQqRxNsOpMMYtPwO2 01020304050607 22H1 H2 CONTENTS 22 23 1-4 3 01 22H1 H2 4(MAP)(DAP)(SSP)(TSP)41%44%NPK 7%3%5%1.1 N+P2O5%64 60 56 64 57 53 N%11 10 9 17 14 13 P2O5%51 48 45 45 41 38%87 80 75 87 80 75 H2O%2.5 2.5 3 2.5 2.5 3 1mm-4mm%90 80 80 90 80 80 14-18%TSP 42-46%MAP 44-52%DAP 42-46%14-19%7-17%30-42%22-33%磷 酸 二铵,44%磷 酸 一铵,41%NPK复合肥,7%重钙,3%低浓度磷肥,5%磷酸二铵磷酸一铵NPK 复 合肥重钙低浓度磷 肥5 71%1.2/IDA/磷复肥,71%黄磷,7%其他磷化物,22%磷复肥 黄磷 其他磷化 物6 2022 2022 2022 1-4 2022 2022 22H1 FOB 841 965/3660 4067/1.3 22H1/-1000-50005001000150018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01磷酸一铵 磷酸二铵020040060080010001200140018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01FOB 摩 洛哥 FOB 波 罗的海 FOB中国020040060080010001200140018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01FOB 美 国海湾 FOB 突 尼斯FOB 摩 洛哥 FOB中国7 1.3 22H2 2022 2022 2022 6 2021 9 13 2022 46.9%42.8%22H2 405.08 573.36 22H1 22.51%20.82%02004006008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022磷酸一铵 出口量（万吨）磷酸二铵 出口量（万吨）/02004006008001000120014001600180001000200030004000500018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04价差（右 轴）磷酸一铵020040060080010001200140016001800010002000300040005000600018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04价差（右 轴）磷酸二铵02040608010012014001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12磷酸二铵（万吨）磷酸一铵（万吨）8 02 9 2022 927.8 1297.5 201.1 357.9 25.12%2022 1945 2112 928 1298 2018-12.46%+1.76%30-70%2.1%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022行业产能（万吨）年度产量（万吨）050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022行业产能（万吨）年度产量（万吨）02004006008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022磷酸一铵 出口量（万吨）磷酸二铵 出口量（万吨）010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023磷酸一铵 磷酸二铵10 2016 2.2 2015.7 2016.7 2016.12 2018.12 2020.11 2030 2022.3 2017.12 2018 2019 10%2019.11 2019 2021.5 11 220 200 137 100 100 CR5 38.92%540 420 265 200 110 CR5 72.68%2.3 220 200 137 100 100 92 70 70 60 60 60 60 60 55 50 50 50 540 420 265 200 110 100 85 80 60 40 35 30 30 30 30 20 12 03 13 Wind 2020 2023 2020 2023 6 5 2770.20 4774.21 2786.67/2020 44.49%36.76%16.33%3.1 Wind 0200004000060000800001000001200001400002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国:播种 面积:粮食 作物（千公顷）/05010015020025018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01大豆 大麦 玉米10002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023玉米 大豆 小麦14 04 22 23 1-4 15 4.1 2022 927.8 1297.5 201.1 357.9 2022 25.12%2020 25.6%23.2%14.6%8.7%5.0%22.9%2020 0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022年度进口 量（万 吨）年度出口 量（万 吨）01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022年度进口 量（万 吨）年度出口 量（万 吨）中国,25.6%摩洛哥,23.2%以色列,14.6%埃及,8.7%荷兰,5.0%其他,22.9%中国摩洛哥以色列埃及荷兰其他16 4.2 22 H1/0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022磷酸一铵 出口量（万吨）01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022磷酸二铵 出口量（万吨）2022 2021 9 13 2022 2022 201.1 46.9%357.9 42.8%2022 H1 2022H1 22H1 FOB 841 965/3660 4067/2022H2/05001000150018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01FOB 摩 洛哥 FOB 波 罗的海 FOB中国020040060080010001200140018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01FOB 美 国海湾 FOB 突 尼斯FOB 摩 洛哥 FOB中国17 4.3 23 2023 1-8 20-30%2023 2023 1-8 15.2%51.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20231 7.0 17.9 16.2 16.0 5.3 20.02 8.6 3.9 7.6 22.7 4.8 14.73 18.2 22.4 34.7 20.0 10.2 18.84 16.6 32.4 18.8 37.2 20.3 13.55 20.5 42.1 23.2 36.3 21.8 20.86 30.8 19.4 23.1 57.3 29.7 4.97 22.1 31.8 20.0 67.7 18.1 20.08 28.9 19.0 28.1 56.4 15.7 32.29 25.3 16.2 19.7 31.2 24.310 39.7 8.9 21.5 23.3 17.711 17.6 14.5 25.4 7.6 19.712 13.7 10.5 14.8 2.8 13.61-8 152.6 189.0 171.7 313.7 125.8 144.9 23.8%-9.2%82.7%-59.9%15.2%249.0 239.1 253.1 378.6 201.1-4.0%5.8%49.6%-46.9%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20231 24.5 39.1 14.3 12.0 25.0 27.62 15.5 33.0 11.9 27.9 11.4 9.43 25.0 38.7 54.8 51.9 37.9 26.34 21.9 54.1 39.7 45.5 19.5 33.35 67.7 50.1 26.8 92.9 16.3 51.66 94.4 59.8 55.7 91.4 19.7 92.97 83.6 87.6 77.1 98.4 33.6 51.08 68.8 49.8 80.2 55.0 51.8 32.99 83.0 70.2 56.6 55.0 46.910 136.3 51.6 59.2 79.0 50.411 89.0 76.6 47.8 12.9 20.112 37.2 36.8 49.1 3.5 25.31-8 401.4 412.2 360.5 475.0 215.3 325.0 2.7%-12.6%31.8%-54.7%51.0%746.9 647.5 573.3 625.5 357.9-13.3%-11.5%9.1%-42.8%18 05 19 2022 82.09%3.64%2.07%7.56%4.63%82.25%2.71%1.43%5.97%7.64%6 5 67.12%69.86%5.1 2022 2022 2022 原材料,82.09%燃料动力,3.64%直接人工,2.07%制 造 费用,7.56%运费,4.63%原材料燃料动力直接人工制造费用运费原材料,82.25%燃料动力,2.71%直接人工,1.43%制 造 费用,5.97%运费,7.64%原材料燃料动力直接人工制造费用运费磷矿石,67.12%硫磺,16.28%合成氨,16.60%磷矿石硫磺合成氨磷矿石,69.86%硫磺,16.99%合成氨,27.26%磷矿石硫磺合成氨20 5.2 2022 8 1000/6 5 30%1037.5/22H1 2022 6 5 804.38 2793.46/02004006008001000120018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04中 国 磷矿石 均价（元/吨）01000200030004000500018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04中 国 硫磺均 价（元/吨）010002000300040005000600018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04中 国 合成氨 均价（元/吨）21 5.3 22H1 23H1/-1000-50005001000150018-01 19-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01磷酸一铵 磷酸二铵02004006008001000120014001600180001000200030004000500018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04价差（右 轴）磷酸一铵 2022 2022 2022 1-4 2022 6 2022 6 2023 2023 1000/6 1 360/-255/020040060080010001200140016001800010002000300040005000600018-04 19-04 20-04 21-04 22-04 23-04价差（右 轴）磷酸二铵22 5.4 1000/6 5 67.12%69.86%1281 6.5 100-200/200/1281 67 1038 1525 200 294 200 294 804 370 804 370 804 370 2793 377 2793 377 2490 336 2272 1041 1000 1038 1587 200 306 200 306 804 306 804 306 804 306 2793 619 2793 619 2490 552 2512 1231 1164 6.5/23 06 24 6.2022 1945 2112 928 1298 2018-12.46%+1.76%2016 2023 1-4 2021 9 13 2022 46.9%42.8%22H2 22H1 22.51%20.82%2023 1-4 65.2%3.0%4 70.5%2022 82.09%82.25%6 5 67.12%69.86%1281 25 0726 7.2022 555/1450/618/750/132/200/9/50/3/20/10/10/17 17/36/2022 251.20 30/197/15/27/2022 90/27 28&2017 3 4 2018 2021 2 1.6 6 20%5%20%-5%+5%5%2.A 500 10%-10%10%10%29 30 600 N1 9+86 21 68761616+86 21 68767880400-8888-128