20231016_国泰君安_建材行业证券研究报告：硅基材料研究框架_50页.pdf

2 0101+02+03+3N4N 4N5 04 051ZFUvMnQpMoPqOpMrMqPoP6M9R9PmOnNmOtQiNrQnNkPnMxPbRqRmPNZqNmRvPtOoO3 014 015 016CONTENTS01 02+03 04+05 06 07 701 8 01 ChemBeanGo Si C Si O VS IVA Si O 1 2 Si O 80%Si C Si C Si O C Si O 1863 C.Friedel J.M.Crafts Si C 9 CAFSI 18 C.Fredel J.M.Crafts SiCl4 ZnEt2 SiEt4 Grignard Wurtz F.S.Kipping 18991944 54 F.S.Kipping 1904 Kipping Si=O Silicone 19041937 20 30 J.F.Hyde 1937 GE Hyde W.J.Patnode 20 40 E.G.Rochow R.M ller 20 50 1952 1956 1958 0110-110 107 1 2 3 DMC/D4 107 0111 Si+3HC SiHCl3+H2 Si+4HC SiCl4+2H2 85 15 1 2 3 4 0112 SiO2 1 2 3 1 2 011302+14+2023 9 13 534 176 33%140 18 18+2021 2021 176 60 55 50 40 34 24 20 20 20 12 15 8 53401020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind%0215 12000-13000kWh 36%27%/t/kWh 12000-13000/t 2.7-3/t2-2.2/t 0.1-0.13,36%,27%,10%,8%,19%36%1200013000kWh0216 SMM 2023 50%7501100/SMM/2023E 38%19%12%9%4%3%3%3%2%2%1%4%0217 0.16/kWh 0.33/kWh 12000 kWh 1568/2022 6 2018 3 2021 8 2021 10 2022 6 0218 110 107 1 ACMI/SAGSI 2022 HTV 141.40 93.80 HTV 50.5%2 RTV 2022 203.2 126.4 3 2020 54.0 40.7 HTV RTV LSR CAFSI SAGSI ACMI 02190320 SiO2 SiO2 IDTechEx 0321 IDTechEx 2021 74 8 2022 30%2022 37.5%2022 80%30%2025/30%/40%/50%2025 1800 14.4 43.2 2022-2025 CAGR 54%2022-2034 IDTechEx2022 2025E 688.7 1500 1500 1500%30%30%40%50%3 3 3 3/80 80 80 80/240 240 240 240 620 1350 1800 2250 4.96 10.80 14.40 18.00 14.88 32.40 43.20 54.00 2025 40 0322+1+2+/m3/m3 0.16 0.00%60%1.90 0.02%393.87 7.29%98%0.33 0.00%98%10.80 0.20%30%1.79 0.02%99%91.68 1.70%4665.60 49.10%700.56 12.96%95%0.00 0.00%1452.82 26.88%1452.82 15.29%213.76 3.95%10.37 0.11%99%1291.32 13.59%/720.00 13.32%518.40 5.46%1223.63 22.64%902.00 9.49%75.60 1.40%336.00 3.54%520.00 9.62%300.00 3.16%2.06 0.04%21.60 0.23%5404.92 100.00%9502.13 100.00%+5405/032304+24+SiO2 99.9%4N5(2N4N)(4N)(4N56N)3N4N 4N5 SiO2 10-6 10-6 10-6 10-6 40 80 80 140 100 200 80 300 A B C D 0425+TQC 4N8 4N8 2023 ITOA 1.5 2022 TQC 1 2022 3.3 2022 0426 SiCl4 CH3SiCl3 SiO2 HCl SiO2 Fe3+Al3+Ca2+-SiO2 SiO2 SiO2 SiCl4 SiO2 SiO2 0427 2024 2024 TQC 22-23 2.4-2.5 2024 1.2 CPIA 2023 330-360GW 30%2022 1.1 2023 1.7 2024 2019-2024 供需平衡表 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 需 求端 全球光伏装机（GW）115 138 170 240 330 400 容配比+损耗 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 硅片需求量（GW）150 179 221 312 413 520 1GW 需要单晶炉（台）80 80 80 80 80 80 对应单晶炉（台）11960 14352 17680 24960 33000 41600 36 英寸及以上石英坩埚占比 10%18%35%45%50%60%36 英寸以下石英坩埚占比 90%82%65%55%50%40%36 英寸及以上坩埚使用寿命(小时)400 400 400 395 390 385 36 英寸以下坩埚使用寿命(小时)350 350 350 345 340 335 坩埚使用寿命（小时）355 359 368 368 365 365 需求坩埚总量（个）294317 349245 420279 593335 789830 995665 36 英寸及以上每个坩埚消耗石英砂（吨）0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 36 英寸以下每个坩埚消耗石英砂（吨）0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 每个坩埚消耗石英砂（吨）0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 损耗率 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 高纯石英砂需求量（万吨）3.0 3.6 4.6 7.0 9.9 12.7 供 给端 尤尼明和 TQC（内层）2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 3.6 石英股份 0.5 0.7 1.4 3 5 8 其他 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.80 0.80 缺口-1.1-1.7-0.3 2023 042805 29 1 2 SiO2 SiO2 nH2O/0530/99.8%2%100-400m2/g 7-40nm 98%4-8%7%50-250m2/g 50-100nm 98%4-8%7%250-900m2/g 10-50nm/2.2-2.65 103 6.5-7 3.88-4.65 1MHz 0.0002-0.0018 1MHz 0.5-14 10-61/k 1.1-12.6()0531 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 HG 2791-1996 1997-01-01 SJ/T 10675-2002 2003-03-01 HG/T 3061-2009 2010-06-01 GB 25576-2010 2011-02-21 GB/T 20020-2013 2014-01-31 HG/T 4526-2013 2014-03-01 QB/T 2346-2015 2015-10-01 GB/T 32678-2016 2017-01-01 0532 2021 11.31 7.76 60%2021 140 2021 77%2018 250 14%2021 2018 2025 E 24.53 10.41 37.59 33.30 8.00 3.40 21.06 8.94 PCB 3.12 1.33 4.41 1.88,0.61 0.79 1.69 2.11 35.20 14.94 61.48 26.10 180.00 37.88 645.44 135.83 251.46 68.75 771.67 208.16 2021 ACMI/SAGSI 68.7%7.2%5.8%5.0%4.8%8.50%CMP 37.1%28.9%10.7%10.4%3.1%3.2%6.6%0533 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-22700 17100 25000 30900-6025 6158 6121 5806-43500 45500 54300 66700-4550 4763 4618 4432-4863 5163 4844 4712-/-16131 16031 16137 17182-4581 5119 5690-14253 14231 15712 16594-20629 20267 23350 26284 YX-8-5915 5673 6456-28350 29142 28957 27468 YX-9-7725 7711 8507-10882 10147 10056-1794 1870 1972 1939 1916 2015-8317 8424 7867-4576 4576 4766 4942 4886 4793-6614 6283 6266-12792 12304 12501 13602 12885 13568 14862/1-6 0534/ph 05 35/05 36 1 0123456/0537 2 70%1 CUT/2018-2021 Wind 012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05380639 06400741 LinxConsulting 2020 58.44 41.85 2025 60.23 100 2021 4%9500/TFT/LCD Linx Consulting SEMI 33%14%13%6%7%3%13%HF,F2,NF3,SF6,COF2,ClF3,XeF3,WF6,MoF6,TeF6,PF3,AsF3,AsF5,CH3F,CH2F2,CHF3,CF4,C2HF5,C2F6,C3F8,C4F6,C4F8,C5HF7,C5F8.SiH4,Si2H6,SiH2Cl2,SiHCl3,SiCl4,Si2Cl6,SiF4,SiH(CH3)3,Si(CH3)4,SiHN(CH3)23,SiN(CH3)24.BF3,BCl3,BBr3,B2H6,B(CH3)3,B(C2H5)3.GeH4,Ge2H6,Ge(CH3)4,GeH(CH3)3,GeF4,GeCl4.PH3,AsH3,H2S,H2Se,SbH3,SnH4.Cl2,HCl,HBr,COS,NO2,NH3,CO2,CO,Xe,Ne,Kr,C3H6,CH4,C2H4,C3H8.()1 NF3 8.80 20%2 WF6 3.35 8%3 C4F6 3.11 7%4 NH3 1.85 4%5 Xe 1.75 4%6 SiH4 1.68 4%7 N2O 1.39 3%8 PH3 1.20 3%9 1.15 3%10 ClF3 1.09 2%25.37 58%-7.142 372mAh/g 4000mAh/g CVD PVD CVD PVD GGII 2022 1.6 2023 2.7 2022 2 26 65%(SiH4)SiH4(PECVD)(LICVD)(FBR)PECVD LICVD 051015202530352021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2030E GGII 340-370mAh/g 310-360mAh/g 400-4000mAh/g 93%93%77%GGII 7.243-Si-O-C-1,2 3 4 5 SAGSI 2021 2021 32%19%17%15%11%7%34%18%17%12%19%7.344 2021 76.5 47.8 2020 9.6%10.1%2021 55.8 32.3 2020 13.6%16.0%40 2021 53%2021 24%16%13%47%SAGSI%SAGSI 2010 35.6 23.9-2011 38.8 26.5 18.8 11.1 48%42%2012 41.6 28.1 21.7 12.5 52%44%2013 43.9 29.1 23.9 14 54%48%2014 46.7 31.2 26.7 15.9 57%51%2015 50.5 33.7 30.5 18.2 60%54%2016 54.1 35.1 35.1 19.9 65%57%2017 57.2 37.6 37.74 22.12 66%59%2018 59.6 41.6 40.39 26.09 68%63%2019 62.1 43.9 42.92 27.01 69%62%2020 69.8 43.4 49.07 27.82 70%64%2021 76.5 47.8 55.8 32.3 73%68%2023E 76.2 53.8-7.345 QYResearch HDMS 64%20%5%3%8%7.446 QYResearch 2021 25.16 2026 39.96 2021 5.98 2026 12.01 38%28%11%11%4%8%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E QYResearch/0200004000060000800001000001200002017 2018 2019 KH-550 KH-560 CG-Si69 HP669 HP1589 HP669C 7.447 vs Y-R-Si(OR)3 Y SiOR-Si-O-C-(CH3)3Si2NH-Si-N-Si-/+=+=(+)=+=+=/7.448 28000 15000 LED LED LED LED-7.549 01 THANKS FORLISTENING