20230925_华创证券_消费者服务行业深度研究报告：平成初年的日本精神文化消费_34页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 09 25 1990-2005 1989-2019 1990-2005 GDP 0.9%2005 2007 2005 5.7 15 40.4%2005 0-24 24%1.26 2005 65 28%65 40%1977 1989 1999 recruit B2C C2C 1 90 TOP10 5 1991-2000 80 yoy+59.1%yoy+23.3%2 1989 Game Boy 1994 PlayStation 1997 6603 IP 3 1991 SMAP 1997 AKB48 B2C C2C 1997 29.1 2000 2001-2%cagr 2011 22.8 10%Watts Cando Seria 1997 2009 BOSS-S-S 010-66500993 S0360517040002 S0360523070006%()53 0.01()5,753.34 0.64()5,175.57 0.75%1M 6M 12M-7.1%-30.6%-22.9%-5.6%-22.9%-17.0%Recruit 2023-08-25 2022-07-28-22%-8%7%22%22/09 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/092022-09-222023-09-21 300 2009 1210 1990-2005 GDP 0.8%Recruit B2C C2C BOSS-S-S YWAZxOmRsRrQsMmPtOoRoP7NcM8OmOpPmOpMiNrRxOfQsQtN7NpOsPwMmMoONZnPtQ 2009 1210 3.7.12.18.21“”.21 B2C C2C.23.24.26.28.31 2009 1210 4 1 GDP.7 2 GDP.7 3.7 4.7 5.8 6 225.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.11 16.11 17.11 18.11 19.12 20.12 21.13 22.13 23.14 24.14 25.14 26 PISA.14 27.15 28.15 29.15 30.15 31.15 32 2005.17 33 2005.17 2009 1210 5 34.17 35.17 36.18 37 23Q1.18 38.18 39.19 40.19 41.19 42.20 43 2018.20 44%.20 45“”.21 46.21 47.22 48.22 49 TOP10.22 50.22 51 1986-2001.22 52.22 53 25.23 54.23 55.24 56.24 57.25 58.25 59.26 60.26 61 1920-2015-GDP.27 62 1920-2015-.27 63 5.28 64.28 65“”.28 66.28 67.29 68.29 2009 1210 6 69.30 70.30 71.30 72.31 73.31 74 2000.31 2009 1210 7 1989 2019 1990 2005 80 90 1990-2005 GDP 0.9%-1998 14.2 2019 1996 33.4%40 1 GDP 2 GDP 3 4 2009 1210 8 5 6 225 IMF=-Wind 1 1947-1949 1949 269.7 8177 4.32 2 1971-1974 1974 203.0 1.1 2.05 1974 1989 1.57 1991 1994 2003 2005 2007 2020 1.3 48.5 7 2009 1210 9 8 9 10 1991 1994 1995 1999 1999 2003 2003 2004 2013 2016 1.8 1 Web Japan 11 30 42 2009 1210 10 30 6 0 3 15000 1 15000 1970-2005 65 10.4%17.4pct 27.8%1994 65 14%2005 20%2020 37.1%0-24 1970 63.1%2005 34%2020 27.9%12 1990-2005 6.4 5.7 2005 4371 15 40.4%38.2%1990+2.5pct 42.4%+3.1pct 2005 16.0%+10.4pct 7.3%+3.0pct 1990 2009 1210 11 13 14 15 15 16 Yahoo 45-49,50-54 2020-0.6 2021-1.1 2022-2.4 0.78 0.59 45 3.7 17.5%2018 17 18 2009 1210 12 19 20 20 1 20 1927-1946 1927 2 20 1947-1976 1947 6 9 70 1 2 1960-1980 1980 94.2%1960+36.5pct 31.9%+14.7pct 1980 75.3%-7.9pct 2009 1210 13 21 22 University&Junior college 1 18 University&Junior college 2 3 20 21 1977-2007 1977 3 1 2 3 1989 1 2 1998 30%6 5367 418 3 2940 210 1968 245 1998 175 70 2003 2006 PISA 2009 1210 14 23 24 Benesse 25 26 PISA 4 2008 2007 30 2008 6 209 5576 2011 5645 3 2940 2012 105 3045 4000 2023 99 2009 1210 15 27 28 29 30 Yahoo xtrail 31 20-1 2 3 20 1947 1947 6 9 1 2009 1210 16 2 3 20 21 1977 1989 1998 1977 3 1 2 3 6 5785 3 3150 1989 1 2 1998 30%6 5367 418 3 2940 210 1968 245 1998 175 70 21 2008 2007 1/10 30 2008 1 21 2 3 5 6 6 5576 209 2011 5645 3 2940 2012 3045 25%2005 20-30 25-29 13.3%13.8%40 2009 1210 17 32 2005 33 2005 1974 1 2 3 4 S K Y 70%80%2018 SKY GDP 1985 0.54%1991 1.56%1997 3%23 5 2.43 1.4 2.8 20%114.3 6229 34 35 2009 1210 18 36 37 23Q1 dispatch/38 2022 1.3 6900 15 62.5%31.3%2002 8.3pct 1984 15.3%21.6pct 2022 36.9%2002 0.7%1.5pct 2.2%雇佣形态 定义个人私营者个体私营者的家庭成员企业或社团等负责人Regular employee，一般指终身雇佣制，劳动合同无契约终止日，全职工作兼职Part-time worker，劳动时间比正式员工时间短，但工作内容几乎无差别，主要面向主妇打工Temporary worker，临时工，多为自由职业者和学生，一般是在休息时间或假期期间的临时工作契约社员 Contract employee，劳动企业有规定的合同终止日嘱托社员Entrusted employee，劳动企业有规定的合同终止日，多为退休后返聘人员劳务派遣 间接雇佣Dispatched worker from temporary labour agency，与派遣企业签订劳务合同，其他-直接雇佣-就业分类就业者Employed person雇佣者（企业、社会团体等）员工Employee非正式员工Non-regularemployee自营业主家庭从业者企业或社团等负责人正式员工 2009 1210 19 NEET Not currently engaged in Employment,Education or Training 2022 74 39 1999 40 41 资料来源：日本 华创证券 资料来源：日本 总务省统计局，华创证券 1999 2006 2.0%GDP 2004-2007 2014-2016 2020-2022 8%Recruit Persol 2018 8.8%8.3%Persol 1973 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000/yoy金融危机 1999.7 1811999.12 1986 2004.32012.4 2015.9 2009 1210 20 1973 5.9pct UT group Meitec 42 43 2018 wind-Recruit Recruit 10 Recruit FY13FY23 cagr 12.6%Randstad Adecco Manpower 4.9%1.4%-0.4%2022 Recruit 253.7 1%4%2022 7.9%30 PE 2014 Indeed 1000 RMB 2021 7660 RMB 548 PE 25 44%2022 2022 2022 PE 10 cagr 10 cagr Randstad 290.3 10.9 100.3 3.8%12.35 4.9%16.7%Recruit 253.7 20.0 547.8 7.9%25.01 12.6%14.2%Adecco 249.0 4.1 69.3 1.6%14.47 1.4%-1.0%Manpower 198.3 4.4 36.4 2.2%12.39-0.4%6.6%Recruit 4.1 3.31 2022 FY2023 2023.9.22 3 1 2 3 B C B2B2C-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%19881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022日本GDP yoy（右轴）派遣行业规模yoy 日本失业率（右轴）2004.3 2015.9 2020 成熟阶段顺周期、受政策 强驱动成长阶段渗透率快速提升：劳动参与率下降，失业率上 升，但劳务派遣规模持续增长）1999.12 2009 1210 21 45 46 2022 FY2023 90 1997 1999 2001 1990 2004 1998 1996 1990 1990 1991 TOP10 5 1991-2000 80 yoy+59.1%yoy+23.3%1983 Famicom 1989 Game Boy 1994 PlayStation 97 6603 1991 14.8%2001 26%2009 1210 22 TitleMax 2019 25 921.2 IP 361.4 47 48 anikore 49 TOP10 50 Fami 2005-2013 god-bird 51 1986-2001 52 2009 1210 23 53 25 54 TitleMax B2C C2C B2C C2C 90 1991-2000 3299 80 25%1991 SMAP 19 1997 15 1999 2005 AKB48 AKB48 2009 1210 24 1997 H.O.T 96 96 1.0 2007 SUPER JUNIOR 2.0 4-5 55 56 C/1960 1970 1970 80/1990 900 1991 10 2009 1210 25 1973 1978 CoCo 壱 1982 1996 1993 volks-steak 1999 katsu and katsu 2000 1997 29.1 2000 2001-2%cagr 2011 22.8 1975 1998 1997 40%1990 65%75%1970-1987 18%2019 2001-2011 10 4%1999-2006 14 2000 2010 200 900 gusto 1992 03 1000 Bar 2006 2010 200 250 380 270 10%1991 85 2009 67 57 58 財団 財団 2009 1210 26 JFA 1/丼/丼 2/3/4 1980 50%/1990/2000/2013 59 60 1920 1930 GDP 1920 34.2%1930 51.2%90 1990 GMS GMS mall Daiso Watts,Cando Seria Direct 1980 1990 創 Seria 100 100 2000 20 GDP 2%2009 1210 27 1 7&i 7&i GMS Loft Seven 2 Welcia 3 61 1920-2015-GDP 62 1920-2015-1989 2019 discount store business 22 70%+general merchandise store APITA PIAGO 22 24%rent business 1997-2022 CAGR 21%CAGR 22%80 1980-1989 2%4%-5%80 4SKU 600SKU 70 rogers 1973 2016 12 2009 1210 28 63 5 64 1974 13.8 1990 2 33.7 1963 5.5 3 1992 16.0 35 1989-1999 10 2000 65 66 2 2009 1210 29 3 1 19501960 1964 2 19701980 1983 1987 1970 66 1990 1100 cagr 15.1%3 1990 1991 1.7/3.1 2004 1.2/1.9 1997 1700 IP 2000 1996 2003 67 68 1970-80 90 1997 2046 1908 1994 19951997 61 60 17 1997 1.53 2004 1 2011 23 6.29 1996 8 36.6%1992 3 4.94 2011 23 2.70 45.3%2009 1210 30 69 70 90 Hoshino Resort 1990 RISONARE 90 RISONARE OMO BEB 100 20 90 Cool Japan IP 71 2009 1210 31 2003 2000 9 2004 2005 2009 7 2010 2018 3000 2010 319 37.0%2019 52.6%1678 72 2000 9()2004 4 2004 9()2005 3(2006 3 9)2005 7 2009 7(3)2010 7 2013 7(15 30)2013 11 2014 1 73 74 2000 2009 1210 32 2016 2017 2017 2017 2020 2021 2021 2022 2009 1210 33 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 34 A 300 500/6 20%6 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