2015乌克兰生物质能源调查分析报告（英文版）.pdf

Survey findingsMarket conditions for biomass-to-energyprojects in UkraineIn partnership with:This material was prepared by IFC, a member of the World Bank Group.The contents of this report are protected by copyright.Neither this report nor its parts may be reproduced, copied, or distributed in any form without attribution to the IFC Market Conditions for Biomass-to-Energy Projects in Ukraine Survey Findings, 2015.IFC encourages dissemination of this publication and hereby grants permission to the user of this work to copy portions of it for the users personal, non-commercial use, without any right to resell, redistribute, or create works derived from the contents or informa-tion contained herein. Any other copying or use of this work requires the express written permission of IFC, obtainable at the address below.This report does not claim to serve as an exhaustive presentation of the issues discussed herein and should not be used as a basis for making commercial decisions. Please approach an independent legal counsel for expert advice on all legal issues.Various equipment suppliers, technology developers, and other private companies are cited in this report. IFC does not represent the interests of any such organizations, and reference to specific organizations is made solely for information purposes.The opinions and conclusions contained in this report do not necessarily reflect the opinions of IFC, the Board of Directors of the World Bank, or its Executive Directors. IFC does not guarantee the accuracy of the data herein and bears no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.All information and materials used in the preparation of this report are the property of IFC. 2015 International Finance Corporation1 Dniprovsky uzviz, 3rd floor,Kyiv 01010, UkraineTel.: + 380 (44) 490 6400Fax: +380 (44) 490 6420In partnership with the Finnish Ministry of International Affairs, the Free State of Saxony (Germany), and the Agency for International Business Cooperation within the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. Acknowledgements and background .4Opening remarks .6Preface and about the survey . 7What would it take for Ukraine to realize this market opportunity? . 8Executive summary .91. Municipal heat suppliers . 122. Pellet producers . 193. Agricultural companies .254. Electricity offtake .305. Finance .346. Ukrainian biomass-to-energy legislation . 37Annex 1. Participants in the survey .38Annex 2. Biomass facts and figures .38Content 4AcknowledgementsThis report was prepared by a team of IFC staff, including Kristina Turilova, Viera Feckova, Olga Iakymenko, Maria Kuznetsova, Roman Novikov, and Stratos Tavoulareas, as part of the IFC Ukraine Resource Efficiency Program.The Program is implemented in partnership with the Free State of Saxony (Germany), the Finnish Ministry of Employment and Economy, and the Agency for International Business and Cooperation of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs.The authors wish to thank GfK Ukraine, a leading market research company in the country, and Tetiana Sytnyk for conducting the survey.The authors also wish to express deep gratitude to the following companies and experts who pro-vided valuable input in the preparation of this report. Bo Eske Nyhus, Senior Investment Manager, NEFCO; Georgii Geletukha, Chairman, Bioenergy Association of Ukraine (UABio); Mykola Kolomyichenko, President, Ukrainian Pellet Union; Petra Schwager, Program Manager, UNIDO.BackgroundThis report is based on the survey conducted in 2015 by GfK Ukraine. Its objective is to analyze market conditions for biomass-to-energy projects in Ukraine, as well as their types, key drivers, and barriers to implementation. The survey has been conducted among 200+ local stakeholders: pellet producers, agricultural producers (agro-holdings), as well as municipal energy suppliers.Survey findingsMarket conditions for biomass-to-energy projects in Ukraine 6Opening remarksThe agricultural sector receives significant attention from NEFCO for its potential in bioenergy development and the reduction of emissions of climate gases. It produces one of Ukraines bulk export goods. Many of the agro-businesses are large and financially sound; and unutilized biofuels are available in excess quantities. The major challenge is the lack of experience developing solutions for replacing old boilers and incorporating residual waste from farming activities to achieve cost efficiency and farm-based climate-smart bioenergy systems. Bo Eske Nyhus,Senior Investment Manager, NEFCOThe development of bio- and biomass energy is of strategic importance for countries with a strong focus on agriculture, such as Ukraine. According to the World Bank, Ukraines agriculture sector contributed 11.8 percent value added to the countrys GDP in 2014. The country has enormous potential for the use of biomass for energy generation. Lastly, working with international partners and specialized agencies such as UNIDO, Ukraine can achieve impressive targets in terms of renewable energy and resource efficiency.Petra Schwager, Program Manager, UNIDO 7Preface and about the survey Biomass globally and in the EUGlobally, by 2050 biomass could provide 3,000 TWh of electricity, or around 7.5% of the worlds generation, and could create 1.3 bill tons of CO2equivalent emission savings per annum. In addition, biomass could provide 22 exajoules (EJ) of final heat consumption in industry (15% of the total) and 24 EJ in the buildings sector (20% of the total) by said year. According to an IEA report,1biomass heat and electricity can already be competitive with fossil fuels today. Satisfying the demand will require around 5-7 billion dry tons of biomass by 2050 for electricity and heat production. International trade in biomass thus will be vital to match the demand and will require properly functioning value chains.Potential use of biomass for energy generation is a significant part of the EU 2020 Energy Strategy whereby heat and power production from biomass is expected to reach 1,650 TWh in 2020, making more than doubling from todays level of 800 TWh.2Biomass in Ukraine According to an IRENA report,3Ukraine has the potential to increase renewable energy use tenfold from 87 petajoules (PJ) in 2009 to 870 PJ of the total final renewable energy in 2030. Out of this, 73% is accounted for heat, 20% by electricity generation, and 7 % by transport. Nearly 80% of this total comes from biomass technologies including heating buildings and industrial plants (particularly district heating), power generation, and transport fuels.Ukraine can contribute to the EU renewable targets, as imports of biomass to Europe will be needed. Even if the “aggressive supply mobilization” scenario in Europe were to fully materialize, annual imports of 150-750 TWh of primary energy would be needed to meet the EU targets. These imports will probably be in the form of pellets for the most part, due to their lower transport costs. The volumes above correspond to between 30 and 150 million tons of pellets, or the output from 50 to 300 large-scale pellet mills.Given Ukraines unique climate and natural resources, biomass represents a strong market opportunity for the country from the viewpoints of energy security, energy generation, and integration into the biomass supply chain. 1OECD/IEA, 2012 Technology Roadmap: Bioenergy for Heat and Power.2European Climate Foundation, 2010 Biomass for heat and power: Opportunity and economics.3IRENA, 2015 REmap 2030: Renewable Energy Prospects for Ukraine. 8What would it take for Ukraine to realize market opportunity?The Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is just starting to evolve. This survey has been launched to gauge perceptions and attitudes towards this market opportunity among key local players. These attitudes will shape investment and operational decisions in the short run, but the survey may also reveal how they could change due to a better understanding of opportunities and thus lead to more informed and appropriate decisions in the long run.The survey has been conducted among 200+ local stakeholders: pellet producers, agricultural producers (agro-holdings), as well as municipal energy providers. The survey was conducted in January-March 2015. It gives insights into wider market players acumen and will be helpful for policy decision makers to shape potential support responses, for vendors to understand potential market opportunities, and for financial institutions to understand which financial instruments will be best suited. We have supplemented the survey findings with some recommendations from tech-nical and financial experts experienced in developing and financing similar projects in Europe and globally. We hope that this report will provide useful information and support the future develop-ment of the Ukrainian biomass market. Executive summaryThe structure of the Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is taking shapeThe supply side of the market is represented by the forestry and wood processing companies and crop and animal farms that are sources of biomass. Pellet producers process available waste into pellets. Boilers for burning biomass are available in the market from either local producers or importers. Biomass-to-energy facilities produce electricity and/or heat for a variety of users (industrial, commercial, and residential). In some cases, users generate electricity and/or heat for their own use. In others, (private or municipal) electricity/heat producers sell to end-users directly or through the power grid. Biomass-to-energy facilities may use biomass only or in combination (co-fired) with other fuels (oil, gas, or coal).The demand side is represented by biomass-to-energy facilities: Companies or individual users that burn biomass to produce energy (electricity or heat) for in-house consumption. This segment includes industrial companies, crop and animal farms, individual households, schools, and hospitals which install biomass-burning boilers to receive energy. They may use own-sourced biomass or procure it, particularly from pellet suppliers. Private and municipal heat suppliers. The former install biomass boilers and sell heat to customers such as schools, hospitals, and small industrial plants. The latter use biomass boilers together with traditional fuel (mainly, natural gas) boilers to reduce the cost of energy. Electricity generators. These companies implement projects with the objective of selling electricity to the national grid. For instance, animal farms process biomass into biogas and sell electricity to the grid.The Ukrainian biomass-to-energy market is rather fragmented. There is a lack of established links in the market between players, which prevents it from smooth functioning.The most robust segment of the market is that of municipal heat supply. Heat-supplying companies, both municipal and private, are the most active users of biomass for energy generation: More than one third (36%) of all the surveyed heat-supplying companies use biomass boilers. Most of them run both gas and biomass boilers. Combined usage of traditional fuel and biomass (co-firing) is very rare among those polled. Another 27% of the total number of surveyed heat suppliers have designed a project to install biomass boilers.Executive summary10Demand for biomass-to-energy initiatives has been growing in Ukraine, being driven by the motivation of cost savings and increased efficiency. In the short term, the share of heat suppliers using biomass boilers could grow up to 63% of all the surveyed players. Despite the expanding share of municipal heat suppliers using biomass boilers in the total number of companies, the share of biomass in the overall volume of fuel consumed by the surveyed entities remains low (14%). The most common fuel is natural gas, with a share of 80% in the total volume of fuel used by municipal heat supplierspetition is intensifying in the heat-supplying segment of the biomass-to-energy market. Nearly a quarter (23%) of the surveyed municipal heat suppliers have reported cases of clients switching off the heat supply after installing their own biomass boilers. Schools, hospitals, and other social institutions are those most frequently named for discontinuing municipal heat supply and installing their own biomass boilers. These entities are also the most common clients for private heat suppliers using biomass.Private heat suppliers have been actively entering the biomass-to-energy market. They install and operate boilers generating heat to be delivered to clients (usually schools, hospitals, and small businesses).Another important segment of the biomass-to-energy market is industrial enterprises using biomass to produce energy for in-house needs. According to the survey of pellet pro-ducers, about 20% of their sales go to industrial enterprises. As a result, industrial enterprises and private heat suppliers are the key domestic customers of pellet producers in Ukraine.Biomass supplies(main sources of biomass) Forestry Wood processing Agricultural companies Other (for example, food processing) Industrial enterprises Crop and animal farms Individual users (house-holds, schools, hospitals)Supply and logistics of biomass Private heat suppliers Municipal heat suppliersEnergy off-takers such as: Animal farms producing biogas Companies col-lecting biogas at solid waste landfills Pellet producers Boiler equip-ment producersBiomass processors and equipment providersBiomass -to-energy producersEnergy for own useHeating energy for customersElectricity off-take (electricity for the market)Electricitysupply to the gridBIOMASS-TO-ENERGY MARKET STRUCTURE IN UKRAINEExecutive summary 11Although agricultural companies have direct access to biomass, they are not its leading users for energy production. In total, 11% of all the surveyed agro-companies use their agri-cultural waste for burning in their own boilers. About 14% have considered using crop residue in boilers to reduce energy cost; 13% of the