中国在拉美的利益拓展与保护.pdf

siis2017-10上海国际问题研究院系列课题报告 201703 号SIIS Task Force Report 2017 no.03 本报告版权属于上海国际问题研究院本报告仅代表课题组成员个人观点Copyright 2017 by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.All Rights Reserved. All views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors.中国在拉美的利益拓展与保护Development and Protection of Chinas Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean2017中国在拉美的利益拓展与保护目录引言 Foreword 01课题组成员About the Authors 01内容提要Executive Summary 01前言Introduction 01一、中国在拉美的利益诉1.Chinas Interest in Latin America 02二、中国拓展在拉美利益的新环境2.Expanding Chinas Interests in Latin America under New Environment 07ContentsDevelopment and Protection of Chinas Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean三、对中国拓展拉美利益环境的再认知3.Re-examine the New Environment 07四、政策建议4.Policy Suggestions 022015 年 1 月，中国拉共体论坛首届部长级会议在北京举办。习近平主席在论坛开幕式上指出：“我们要共同努力，实现 10 年内中拉双边贸易规模达到 5000 亿美元、中国在拉美地区直接投资存量达到 2500 亿美元的目标。”2016 年 11 月，中国政府发布第二份对拉政策文件，全面阐述新时期中国对拉政策新的理念和主张。2017 年 5 月，习主席在会见阿根廷总统马克里时强调拉美是 21 世纪海上丝绸之路的自然延伸。上述事件标志着拉美成为中国在发展中地区整体外交的重要板块，中拉关系进入战略引领、利益交融和全面发展的新时期。伴随着中拉整体合作的稳步推进，中国在拉美的利益拓展和维护也步入了深水区。中国已经成为拉美第二大贸易伙伴国，拉美成为仅次于亚洲的中国海外投资第二大目的地。在全球经济仍然存在诸多不确定性的形势下，中拉之间日益增长的经济纽带对彼此的发展显得愈发重要。拓展和维护好中国在拉美的利益不仅有利于保护中国企业走进拉美的积极性，也有利于中拉双方实现共同发展、打造中拉命运共同体的远景目标。拓展和保护中国在拉美的利益并不是一个容易完成的任务。相比于欧美国家在拉美的长期存在与经营，中国是拉美国家的新伙伴。中国与拉美之间的相互认知与磨合都将是一个长期的过程。拉美的地区环境与其他发展中地区也不尽相同，中国在非洲等地的经验并不能简单地复制到拉美。然而，相对于上述困难而言，更为根本性的问题是中国在拉美的利益到底是什么，以及中国能够为拉美带来哪些新的积极变化。本院美洲中心课题组在既有研究基础上，围绕“中国在拉美的利益拓展与保护”这一主题进行了专题研究，提出了一些有益的看法。报告认为，相比美国战略忽视和中拉经济互补而言，中拉战略契合与相互重视在双方关系发展中扮演的角色更重要；在亲市场力量上台后，拉美一些国家的政治理念和发展思路出现重大转变，但对华关系仍有望保持外交优先；拉美期待中国在其未来发展中扮演更重要角色，这既是中国拓展在拉美利益的战略机遇，也要求中国树立更为综合、精细和可持续的利益观及实施战略。为此，报告建议加强对中国在拉美的利益分析，加强双方围绕发展战略的对话；加强与美国、巴西等地区战略力量的对话，强调和发展共同利益，防止零和博弈；重视通过机制性合作增信释疑，以更为稳健、互动和渐进的方式拓展在拉美的战略合作空间。PrefaceSIIS中拉伙伴关系是南南合作的典型范例，其深入发展对于构建新型国际关系和建设人类命运共同体具有重要启示。期待该课题组能够再接再厉，为中拉关系的健康发展做出新的贡献。是为序。上海国际问题研究院院长In January 2015, the first ministerial meeting of China-CELAC Forum was held in Beijing. At the opening ceremony of the meeting, President Xi Jinping said that we need work together to achieve the goal of $500 billion for bilateral trade between China and Latin America and $250 billion for Chinas direct investment in Latin America in the coming decade respectively. Chinas second policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean in November 2016 expounds the new concept and proposition of Chinas policy towards Latin America. In his meeting with Argentine President Macri in May 2017, President Xi stressed that Latin America was the natural extension of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The above-mentioned events marked Latin America as an important part of Chinas overall diplomacy in the developing regions, and China-Latin American relationship entered into a new era of strategic guidance, converged interest and all-round development.With the steady progress of the China-Latin American cooperation, China has also stepped into the deep water for its interest exposure and maintenance in Latin America. China has become Latin Americas second-largest trading partner, and Latin America has become the second largest destination for Chinas overseas investment after Asia. Amid the uncertainties in the global economy, the growing economic tie between China and Latin America is becoming increasingly important to each others development. Expanding and maintaining the interests of China in Latin America will not only help to protect Chinese enterprises enthusiasm in Latin America, but also help the two sides achieve the long vision of common development and building the China-Latin American community.Expanding and protecting Chinas interests in Latin America is not an easy task to accomplish. China is a new partner of Latin America, compared with the long-term presence and operation of European and American countries in Latin America. The mutual recognition between China and Latin America will be a long-term process. Latin Americas regional environment is not the same as other developing regions, and Chinas experience in places like Africa cant be simply replicated to Latin America. However, compared with the above-mentioned difficulties, the fundamental questions are what Chinas interests in Latin America are and what kind of positive changes China can bring to Latin America.On the existing research, the Center for American Studies of SIIS has carried out special research on the theme of “Development and Protection of Chinas Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean“, and put forward some useful views. It argued that compared with the strategic neglect of the United States and the economic complementary between China and Latin America, the mutual strategic conjunction played a more important role in the development of China-Latin American relations. After the pro-market forces took power, political ideas and development model in some Latin American countries changed significantly, but relationship with China were still expected to remain diplomatic priority. Latin America expects China to play a more important role in its future development, which is not only a strategic opportunity for China to expand its interests in Latin America, but also calling for a more integrated, refined and sustainable Chinese view of interest and implementation strategy in the region. To this end, the report proposes to strengthen the analysis of Chinas interests in Latin America, strengthen bilateral dialogues on development strategies, strengthen dialogue with strategic forces such as the United States and Brazil by emphasizing common interests and avoiding zero-sum game, strengthen mutual trust through institutionalized cooperation, and expand Chinas strategic cooperation space in Latin America in a more stable, interactive and gradual way.The China-Latin American Partnership is a typical example of the South-South cooperation, and its further development is of great significance to the construction of new international relations and the building of human destiny community. We hope that the task force can redouble its efforts to make new contributions to the healthy development of China-Latin American relations.This is the foreword.Chen DongxiaoPresident, Shanghai Institutes for International StudiesOctober 16, 2017中国在拉美的利益拓展与保护进入新世纪以来，拉美成为中国全球性外交的重要版图，双方利益融合进展到前所未有的程度，中国成为影响拉美未来发展的关键性外部变量。中拉论坛的顺利运作标志着中拉双方进入机制化、整体化合作的新阶段。2016 年发布的中国对拉美和加勒比政策文件是中国政府第二份对该地区的政策文件，显示出中国政府对发展中拉关系的持续重视和新时期发展对拉关系的战略规划。在世界经济复苏乏力、保护主义回潮和中拉经贸合作模式转型的新形势下，拓展和保护中国在拉美的利益需要更为综合、细致和可持续的战略设计。在解释中拉关系快速发展的原因时，通常较为强调美国对拉美的忽略为中国在拉美带来了战略空间，以及中拉经济关系本身存在高度互补性。本报告认为中拉战略契合与相互重视扮演了更为重要的角色。这体现在双方强调互为重要发展伙伴的战略认知、重视在全球范围内寻求发展空间的国际体系观以及对相互尊重、互利共赢和共同发展理念的认可。在中国经济进入新常态、拉美经济增长趋缓和部分发达国家贸易保护主义回潮的新形势下，拉美主要经济体在政治理念和发展思路上出现重大变化。在进入政治摇摆、经济转型且亲市场力量占据上风的新时期后，拉美国家仍旧期待中国在其经济结构多元化和全面发展中扮演更加重要的角色。这种新形势既是中国进一步拓展在拉美利益的战略机遇，也要求中国在拉美地区构建更为综合、精细和可持续的利益观。在中国实力快速上升、拉美独立自主能力增强、全球性问题重要性上升和大国与拉美互动升温的新态势下，中国在拉美的利益拓展和保护战略需在下述三个层面展开：第一，中国应加强对拉美的利益分析，加强在智库对话、人文交流和公共外交方面的力度，以互利共赢、交流互鉴和共同发展的理念指导中拉关系，成为致力于共同发展的战略伙伴。第二，加强与美国、巴西等相关战略力量的对话，避免误判彼此意图，强调和发展共同利益，防止零和博弈，拓展中拉在国际体系层面的战略新兴利益。第三，重视通过双边和多边的机制性合作增信释疑，以更为稳健的、互动式的、渐进性的方式拓展在拉美的战略空间。报告建议中国从发展战略上互学互鉴、强化战略伙伴关系的引领作用、培育以可持续发展为核心的经济合作议程和推动中拉合作引领经济全球化走向深入等几个方面完善和实施中国的拉美的利益拓展与保护战略。Development and Protection of Chinas Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean内容摘要Since entering the new century, Latin America has become an important part of Chinas global diplomacy, and the interests of both sides have progressed to an unprecedented degree, and China has become a key external variable affecting the future development of Latin America. The smooth operation of the China-CELAC Forum marks a new stage of the institutionalized and overall cooperation between China and the region. Chinas policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean issued in 2016 is the second one to the region, showing the Chinese governments continued emphasis on its regions with the region and the strategic planning for the development of this relationship in the new era. Under the new situation of sluggish world economic recovery, the resurgence of protectionism and the transformation of China-Latin American Economic and trade cooperation model, it is necessary to develop and protect the interests of China in Latin America in a more comprehensive, precisely and sustainable way.Different from the view that the United States ignorance of Latin America creating strategic space for China and the rapid development of China-Latin American relations as a result of a high degree of complementary between China and Latin America, the report argues the strategic mutual alignment and attention played a more important role. This is reflected in the strategic understanding of each other as important development partners, the international system view of seeking space for development in the global context and the shared views of mutual respect, mutual benefit and common development.Under the new situation of the new normal of Chinas economy, the slowdown of Latin American economic growth and the resurgence of protectionism in some developed countries, major Latin American economies have changed significantly in terms of political ideas and development models. In the new era of political swing, economic transformation and the rise of pro-market force, Latin American countries still expect China to play a more important role in the diversification and all-round development of their economic structure. This new situation is not only a strategic opportunity for China to further develop its interests in Latin America, but also requires China to build a more comprehensive, precised and sustainable view of its interests in Latin America.In the context of Chinas rapid development, Latin Americas increased ability to strengthen itself, the high profile of global issues and the enhanced interaction between great powers and Latin America, Chinas interests in Latin America shall be developed and protected in the following three levels: first, China shall strengthen analysis of its interests in Latin America and enhance its dialogue, humanities exchange and public diplomacy with the region with the guideline of mutual benefit, win-win, and common development to achieve common development partnership. Second, China shall strengthen its dialogue with the United States, Brazil and other relevant strategic forces to avoid misjudgment, emphasize and develop common interests, prevent zero-sum game, and expand emerging strategic interest at the international system level. Third, China shall enhance its strategic space in Latin America through a more robust, interactive and progressive approach by bilateral and multilateral mechanisms of cooperation.The report suggests China improve and implement its interests development and protection strategy in Latin America from the aspects of development strategy mutual learning, the leading role of strategic partnership, fostering economic cooperation agenda with sustainable development as its core, and leading economic globalization by deepening China-Latin American cooperation.课题组成员牛海彬 上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心副主任；国际战略所所长助理Niu Haibin, Deputy Director of the Center for American Studies, Assistant Director of the Institute for International Strategic Studies, SIIS张明德 上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心研究员Zhang Mingde, Senior Researcher, Center for American Studies, SIIS楼项飞 上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心助理研究员Lou Xiangfei, Research Fellow, Center for American Studies, SIIS黄放放 上海国际问题研究院美洲研究中心助理研究员Huang Fangfang, Research Fellow, Center for American Studies, SIISTask Force Members