2018全球人才趋势研究（英文版）.pdf

HEALTH WEALTH CAREER GLOBAL TALENT TRENDS 2019 CONNECTIVITY IN THE HUMAN AGECopyright 2019 Mercer. All rights reserved.Scenarios abound about the future of work and the implications for individuals, companies, and societies. Technological advances, government policies, and employee expectations are reshaping what we know as work, while the pace of change continues to accelerate. As artificial intelligence (AI) and automation infuse into everyday life, the opportunities for how people will work and live are significant. But how do we stay ahead? In an age defined by the intersection of artificial and human intelligence, it is more vital than ever that we focus on achieving an equitable, productive, and sustainable future for all. ANTICIPATING A SURGE IN WORKFORCE DISRUPTION Technology transformation Financial Services Life Sciences Healthcare Threat of new competition Consumer Goods Energy Technology Retail Rising customer expectations Automotive Insurance FIGURE 1. TOP DRIVERS OF DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY INTRODUCTION FIGURE 2. TOP HUMAN CAPITAL RISKS Inadequate diversity* 40% Thin leadership pipeline* 38% Excessive time to fill open positions* 52% Low or declining employee engagement* 43% Ineffective hiring decisions* 35% Lagging productivity 31% Slow decision making* 30% In this years study, 73% of executives predict significant industry disruption in the next three years up from 26% in 2018. This sharp shift in perception about the future business environment applies across geographies and industries, although it is most pronounced in the Life Sciences, Consumer Goods, and Energy sectors (Figure 1). More than half of executives expect AI and automation to replace one in five of their organizations current jobs. But this is only half the story, as AI and automation will also create 58 million net new jobs by 2022, according to estimates from the World Economic Forum. This unprecedented shake- up demands new workforce strategies to stay ahead. Amid the prediction of disruption lies confidence: Four out of five executives believe their company can lead disruption in their industry, and nearly all are taking action to prepare for the future of work. As organizations ready themselves, there are significant human capital risks from the inability to close the skills gap to low engagement that can slow the progress of transformation (Figure 2). * Top concerns for high-growth companies * Top concerns for moderate-growth companies 1There are mixed opinions about this years business climate. Buoyed by pro-business policies, some predict the world is on the cusp of significant economic opportunity with technological advances and innovation promising greater productivity and more balanced lives. At the same time, there is mounting concern that unresolved geopolitical tensions will dampen global growth. Business leaders worry most about the relentless march of competitors (traditional and new) and the shifting opportunities offered by technology. Concerns around talent migration and corporate responsibility to address societal issues have increased significantly since last year. Add to that cybersecurity risks and changing business regulations, and companies are facing pressure on multiple fronts (Figure 3). ECONOMIC PRESSURES MOUNTING 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Executives are more concerned this year about these five areas Concern about cybersecurity remains high 2018 2019 Talent migration Regionalization/onshoring Companies responsibility for societal issues Consumer interest in ethical products Increased border control/regulation Cybersecurity Immigration policies Increased strength of emerging markets Changes in business/ tax regulations Changes in labor regulations It is precisely during these times of change that employees look to their employers for direction and inspiration. Job security is one of the top three reasons people joined their company and the main reason they stay. As organizations move from anticipating the future of work to actively preparing for it, they can bring people along on the journey by upholding the values individuals admire, actively managing the change process, and remembering that it is people who make transformations stick. In the Human Age 1 , the most significant threats to successful organizational transformations are rooted in human capital risk, including the stress triggered by individuals feeling a lack of control in the face of uncertainty. 2Yet only one in three executives rates their companys ability to mitigate people risks as “very effective.” This perception may be based on a lack of focus only 29% of HR leaders strongly agree that their business executives prioritize human capital risks. HUMAN CAPITAL RISKS LOOMING 1 An era dictated more than ever before by human behavior and one that will be defined by rapid human evolution 2 World Economic Forum, in partnership with Marsh & McLennan Companies and Zurich Insurance Group. (2019). The Global Risks Report 2019. Available at: weforum/reports/the-global-risks-report-2019 FIGURE 3. EMERGING SOCIOECONOMIC FORCES 2THIS YEARS STUDY We received input from more than 7, 300 respondents including C-suite executives HR leaders employees across geographies and industry sectors FOUR KEY TRENDS FOR 2019 800+ 1,600+ 4,800+ 16 9 TREND ONE: ALIGNING WORK TO FUTURE VALUE Unlock growth in the new world of work by redesigning jobs and moving people to where future value will be created TREND TWO: BUILDING BRAND RESONANCE Listen carefully and learn from data to create a brand proposition that attracts the talent you want TREND THREE: CURATING THE WORK EXPERIENCE Make work simple, intuitive, and digitally enabled to help your people grow and thrive TREND FOUR: DELIVERING TALENT-LED CHANGE Inspire a growth mindset by redesigning structures, workflows, and talent strategies around your people This years Global Talent Trends Study examines differences among organizations for example, how do high-growth companies differ from those with modest revenue growth? How do organizations just beginning their digital journeys compare to those farther along? Based on this analysis, we identified four trends that leading companies are pursuing in 2019. Employees are seeking more purpose, inspiration, and connectivity this year. In the modern workplace, success is a team effort and depends on every persons ability to develop connections within and outside the company. In fact, thriving employees are twice as likely to describe their role as “relationship focused” and their work environment as “collaborative.” When this networked model is at its best, a collective sense of inspiration flows throughout, transferring the shock waves of disruption into sparks of brilliance. 34ALIGNING WORK TO FUTURE VALUE Unlock growth in the new world of work by redesigning jobs and moving people to where future value will be created The world of work continues to change at speed, and advances in technology will continue to stretch what is possible. In light of these rapid changes, an agile culture remains a critical organizational competency. Yet agility alone doesnt guarantee success. A continued emphasis on productivity and incremental reactions to the current business environment are two mindsets that keep businesses treading water rather than swimming in the fast lane. The transformations that will help organizations swiftly and confidently embrace the future involve plotting a path to what customers will value tomorrow. One way companies are forging ahead is by creating integrated people strategies that pay attention to todays needs, while tipping the balance in favor of investing for tomorrow. 5Nearly every company in this years survey is actively embracing change. In fact, 99% of companies are taking action to prepare for the future of work (Figure 5). But HR silos such as talent acquisition, compensation and benefits, mobility, and learning often with their own priorities can create a fractured employee experience and distance the people agenda from emerging business needs. An integrated people strategy anchored in the organizations priorities can close that distance and help drive value in shifting times. While the business planning horizon may be shortening, the time it takes to develop STABILITY TO ENABLE AGILITY INTEGRATED PEOPLE STRATEGY In the last few years, organizations have turned to restructuring to drive value. In fact, over 90% of companies were planning organizational redesigns in 2017 and 2018. 3Major redesign efforts, however, often lead to short-term performance volatility and do not guarantee a return. Nearly one-third (30%) of companies believe they are able to change at speed, up from 18% in 2018 (Figure 4), but as companies move toward flatter work structures and more agile work cultures, the advantages of restructuring diminish. Leading firms are now aligning their change efforts to a few anchor points where they believe future value will be 3 Mercer. (2017). Mercer Global Talent Trends: Empowerment in a Disrupted World and Mercer. (2018). Mercer Global Talent Trends: Unlocking Growth in the Human Age 4 High-growth companies self-reported revenue growth of 10% or more in the last three years, while modest-growth companies self-reported revenue growth of 5% or less during the same period. 30% Nearly 2x more confident than last year! FIGURE 4. MORE COMPANIES THAN EVER BELIEVE THEY HAVE THE ABILITY TO CHANGESPEED strategic competencies and specialized skills is not. An integrated people strategy is critical and accounts for the time it takes to build the leadership, culture, competencies, and skills needed for future competitive advantage. Taking a long- term view of people needs to inform short-term decisions can help rally the organization around a few strategic bets. These may include moving people to business areas with greater return, experimenting with new technology, moving an office closer to vital talent pools, or investing in non-traditional talent by creating new pathways into skilled jobs. High-growth companies are four times more likely to have an integrated people strategy in place. 4generated be it through new products or service lines, new strategic partners, or critical new competencies. The move to more team and project work is an enabler of this trend. People need to be inspired by their companys direction and remain committed to the organization during workplace changes. This means putting a few stakes in the ground and aligning resources to enable focused execution. Having clarity on the actions that companies can take today that will deliver enhanced value is key to leading through change. FIGURE 5. 99% OF COMPANIES ARE TAKING ACTION TO PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK 52% Identify gap between current and required skills supply 51% Develop a future-focused people strategy 48% Adapt skill requirements to new technologies & business objectives 45% Revise the workforce plan to close skills gaps 45% Identify how employees may support or disrupt changes 43% Redesign jobs 1% None of the above 6 ALIGNING WORK TO FUTURE VALUEBUILD, BUY, BORROW, OR BOT 2 in 5 Despite discussions around AI and automation enabling jobs to be deconstructed into individual tasks, or the move away from role structures to skill taxonomies, the fact is there will always be “jobs to be done.” Optimizing for the new world of work requires understanding: What tasks are repetitive, strategic, necessary year-round, or project-based? How can jobs be more clearly defined to reflect team roles and still give employees freedom to contribute? By freeing up resources, organizations can rethink how they deploy people accordingly, especially because the jobs that remain will likely require different levels of labor intensity and cognitive maturity. 5Executives in high-performing companies are twice as likely to say that job redesign makes a sizable difference to business performance. 6 Workforce planning that simply puts new types of workers into old job boxes is insufficient. A fresh take on jobs based on an analysis of where tasks overlap, which activities are future-critical, and which will become obsolete is vital to aligning work to future value. Leading companies are evaluating automation opportunity in various jobs, typically starting with those that directly impact customers, those with significant optimization potential, and those that build future skills. The trick is working out the magnitude of change for a given role or job family and deciding the organizations appetite for that change. REDEFINING THE “JOBS TO BE DONE” While HR leaders continue to focus on building talent from within, automation also figures heavily in their plans this year (Figure 6) especially in Brazil, India, and Japan, where over 70% of companies intend to increase automation. Yet only one-third of companies currently use talent analytics to determine the impact of build, buy, borrow, or bot decisions on performance outcomes. Across the board, the challenge for organizations is to derive the talent insights they need from the data available. 65% #1 I see the CHRO role moving to more of a COO of the talent supply chain. Were giving the CEO insights into the inventory of specific talent domains, how we plan to increase or decrease inventories. This requires agility, to optimize my workforce to look different in 18 months, or to take responsibility for reskilling. Kelley Steven-Waiss, EVP CHRO, HERE Technologies Executives believe the highest ROI on talent investment will come from redesigning jobs to better deliver value. The majority of employees across all regions and industries want a clearly defined job description. But only 43% of HR leaders are redesigning jobs to prepare for the future of work. 5 Mercer, and Oliver Wyman. (2018). Delivering The Workforce For The Future. Available at: mercer/our-thinking/career/delivering-the- workforce-for-the-future.html 6 High-performing companies self-reported that they exceeded performance goals during the last three years. Build Buy Borrow Automate 44% 53% 60% 84% FIGURE 6. THREE IN FIVE COMPANIES PLAN TO AUTOMATE MORE IN 2019 In 2019, we will increase our spending in 7 ALIGNING WORK TO FUTURE VALUEHUMAN CAPITAL RISKS Too much redesign and reorganization leave employees reeling, feeling directionless and ultimately unproductive. It can also cause a heightened sense of isolation, a perceived lack of support from peers, and a decrease in energy levels. THE SHIFTING SHAPE OF WORK 7 Mercer, and Oliver Wyman. (2018). The Twin Threats of Aging and Automation. Available at: mercer/our-thinking/career/ the-twin-threats-of-aging-and-automation.h