2019年新闻、媒体和科技趋势报告.pdf

2019 Trend Report For Journalism, Media rings and bracelets that sense motion; smart glasses that record and display informationwill forever change how we experience the physical world. This doesnt necessarily signal a post-screen ex-istence. We anticipate foldable and scrollable screens for portable, lon-ger-form reading and writing. Its diffi-cult to overstate the dramatic effect our transition away from traditional mobile phones will have on journal-ism, entertainment media, and related technologies. Blockchain emerged as a significant driver of change in 2019 and beyond.The blockchain ecosystem is still maturing, however weve now seen enough development, adoption and consolidation that it warrants its own, full section. There are numerous op-portunities for media and journalism organizations. For that reason, weve included an explainer, a list of compa-nies to watch, and a cross-indexed list of trends to compliment blockchain technology. Weve also included de-tailed scenarios in this section. Artificial Intelligence is not a tech trendit is the third era of computing. And yet there is a tremendous amount of misplaced optimism and fear about what, exactly, AI can and cannot do. You will see the AI eco-system represented in many of the trends in this report, and it is vitally important that all decision-makers and teams familiarize themselves with current and emerging AI trends.We need to pay closer attention to China. The Chinese government is investing hundreds of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. No other coun-try on earth has the potential for 100 million of its citizens to gain so much economic status and power within the next twenty yearsweve never seen socioeconomic mobility on that scale before. No other country is currently building sweeping alliances that range from Africa to Latin America and Eastern Europe. No other countrys government is racing towards the future with as much force and veloc-ity as China, and this could signal big shifts in the balance of geopolitical power in the years ahead. This is especially important as Chinas Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent prepare to take on Google, Amazon and Facebook.Mixed Reality is entering the main-stream. The mixed reality ecosystem has grown enough that we now see con-crete opportunities on the horizon for media organizations. From immersive video to wearable technology, news and entertainment media organiza-tions should begin mapping their strategy for new kinds of devices and platforms.Key Takeaways008 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE009The Future Today Institutes forecasting model uses quantitative and qualitative data to identify weak signals and map their trajectories into tech trends. Our six steps alternate between broad and narrow scopes, which include: identifying weak signals at the fringe, spotting patterns, interrogating trend candidates, calculating a trends velocity, writing scenarios and finally, pressure-testing strategies and recommendations. MethodologyThe Future Today Institute Forecasting Methodologys Six-Step FunnelListen for weak signals at the fringeUse CIPHER to see patternsAsk the right questionsCalculate the ETAWrite scenariosPressure-test the futureAnswers What is the future of X?010203040506Make observations and harness information from the fringes of society or a particular research area.Uncover hidden patterns by categorizing information from the fringe: contradictions, infections, practices, hacks, extremes, rarities.Ask the right questions to determine whether a pattern is really a trend.Ensure that the timing is right for the trend and for your organization.Scenarios inform the strategy you will create to take the necessary action on a trend.Are your scenarios comprehensive enough? Is your level of confidence justified? Is the strategy youre taking the right one for the future? 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE Every organization should continuously monitor weak signals, track emerging trends and develop strategy for the future. However there are different approaches to that work, depending on the answers or information your organization is seeking. Begin by asking two important questions:1. Does your organization need specific, tactical answers to a question with clear parametersor are you developing strategic insights?Examples: What might subscription models and packages look like in the near-future? (tactical)How will people get content using new forms of consumer technology in the near-future? (strategic insights)2. Have you already defined general themes and a list of specific topics for your research?Each research mode requires a different approach:How To Monitor Trends and Signals In Your Organization010 2018-2019 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE