20231211_海通证券_机械行业2024年策略：寻求确定性、拥抱新变化_39页.pdf

玥 SAC S0850520070002 SAC S0850521100001 SAC S0850523060003 2023 12 11 2024 2 2023 11 15 PE-ttm 33.35x 5 13.82%10 PMI/PMI/PMI 49.5%/50.9%/49.5%-0.7pct/-1.8pct/-1.0pct 10 41.94+2.9%+11.83%/RV/1 2 3 4 XVBYvMnQsRrQrPsRmRpQmN8OaO8OmOoOmOoNiNpOtReRnMmN7NrRxPvPrMrNNZmRsR 1.2.3.24/4.5.3 0200040006000800010000120002018-11-16 2019-12-04 2020-12-22 2022-01-10 2023-02-02 25.45x 32.19x38.93x 45.67x 52.41x0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002018-11-16 2019-11-18 2020-11-18 2021-11-18 2022-11-18 1.74x 2.14x2.54x 2.94x 3.34x4 Wind 5 PE 2023 11 15 PE-ttm 33.35x 2018 11 13.82%PB 2023 11 15 PB 2.34x 2018 11 34.09%23 2.76%23 2.76%3C 12.51%11.33%8.05%7.32%6.25%23-WD PE-band PB-band 1.23Q3 0%5%10%15%CS 锅炉设 备 CS起重运 输设备 CS矿山冶 金机械 CS铁路交 通设备 CS 机床设 备 CS工程 机 械 CS激光加 工设备 CS 锂电设 备 CS塑料加 工机械 CS仪器 仪 表 CS叉车 CS 光伏设 备 CS服务 机 器人-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000002000003000004000005000006000007000002015/2 2016/2 2017/2 2018/2 2019/2 2020/2 2021/2 2022/2 2023/2 yoy%0102030405060702015/08 2017/08 2019/08 2021/08 2023/08 PMI 5 Wind 10+12%PMI 2023 10 PMI PMI PMI 49.5%/50.9%/49.5%-0.7pct/-1.8pct/-1.0pct PMI 10 PMI 49.5%9 0.7 10 41.94+2.9%+11.83%9+3.10%-0.41%PMI 2.-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100002000030000400005000060000700002015/22016/22017/22018/22019/22020/22021/22022/22023/2 yoy%406080100120140160180200 6 Wind 4 2023 11 10 108.46+1.41%+1.15%LME 2022 3 3984.50/2023 11 15 2205/-8.51%-2.37%CCFI 2023 11 10 CCFI 843.77-51.22%+1.92%CCFI 952.58-64.59%+5.43%CCFI 824.80-56.16%+1.59%CCFI 722.55-36.53%-1.54%2.550510051505200525053005350540054505 LME/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%050010001500200025003000350040002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy%7 Wind 2023 15733.80+9.71%1066.46+6.60%27.73%7.48%0.55pct 2023 3725.46+17.27%2.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3(%)(%)-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy%0%5%10%15%20%25%05000100001500020000250002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 yoy%8 3./+:CNC 3D:BC 4680 RV MIR DATABANK+2018 8%2021 13%3.1.1 23%25%15%13%8%6%6%4%8%12%12%13%14%15%0%50%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 9 10 2023 6 3C Kuroda 3.1.1 90%5%5%THK NSK 3C 11 MIR DATABANK 20%-40%20%-40%10%+MIR DATABANK 2022 147.65 yoy-15%3.1.1 34%16%16%11%9%7%3%6%2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%331 340 349 358 368 378 390 3003103203303403503603703803904002016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 180 184 180 225 232 113-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy%12 2023 QY Research 3.1.2+,2020-2022 180 232 2023 113 0.44%13 SEMI SEAJ 2023 WSTS 2023 10.3%5151 2024 11.8%5760 SEMI 2023 15%840 2024 2023 HPC 15%970 2022 2021 1026 5%1076 8%11%19%4%2023H1 526.5 3%2022 26.3%SEMI 2022 282.7 5%2023H1 134.1 5%SEMI 26.3%2023H1 25.5%3.1.3 26.3%24.9%20.0%9.7%7.8%5.8%5.5%711.9 1026 1076.4 526.2 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy 187.2 296.2 282.7 134.1-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003502020 2021 2022 2023H1 yoy 2022 14 SEMI CINNO Research 24%20%20%9%6%20%10%ASML ASML 2022 62%SSX600 IC 90nm 110nm 280nm KLA 50%10%ASM Pacific K&S Besi Disco Towa Yamada SEMI 5%ASML AMAT TEL Lam KLA 2023H1 457 Top10 87%3.1.3,24%,20%,20%,9%,6%,21%IC IC IC 23H1 15 SEMI WSTS 1 2021 IGBT MEMS 2 i ii EEPW 44 22 10 2023 200mm 22%16%15%14%14%3 4 Flip Chip Fan-In WLP Fan-Out WLP 2.5D/3D 碁 3.1.3,22%,16%,15%,14%,14%,19%2023 200mm SEMI 16 2022 14%12%4/1 8&0.18 5000Nm/h 2 12&0.18 8000-10000Nm/h m/h 1 2 3.1.3 33%14%13%6%7%4%3%7%13%40%45%55%65%60%55%45%35%0%50%100%LED 2022 25%23%23%17%12%35%45%65%55%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1-3Q2022 1-3Q2023内资 外资 17 IFR MIR 1 IFR 2013-2022 26%CAGR 2022 29 2 22 35%45%3.1.3 2021-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050100150200250300350中国工业 机器人 新增装 机量（千台，左 轴）yoy（%，右轴）18 RV 2020 55.2%2021 51.8%9.4%15.1%2020 37.1%2021 35.5%21.4%24.7%RV RV RV 3.1.3%RV%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 20210%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020 2021 2023 9 40021 15.11%2.5MW SKF 3.1.5 Wind 19 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023M9 yoy%20 3.2.1 40%23%29%2022 8 5 70 3 83 48 26 5000 7000 20/8-10/6000 4200 90-120 60-85 95MPa 1m/min 2.5m/min 4.5/2.6/hp 7000 10000/hp 3500 7000/V 600 690 3300 6000 6600 0204060801001201401601801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 2018 2019 20202021 2022 2023 50%50%2023 1-10 163396 26.0%74871 43%88525 1.04%2023 45.82%54.18%2023 10 101.7 0.20%14.01%wind 3.2.2 21-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022挖机内销（台，左轴）挖机外销（台，左轴）挖 掘 机内销 同比（%，右轴）挖 掘 机外销 同比（%，右轴）3.2.2 22 2023 10 98152 20.7%64429 23.3%33723 15.9%34.36%2014-2022 69%36%2020-2022 16%26%23 3.2.3 Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%31000320003300034000350003600037000380002023M5 2023M6 2023M7 2023M8 2023M9 2023M10()%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0200004000060000800001000001200001400002016 年2 月 2017 年6 月 2018 年10 月 2020 年2 月 2021 年6 月 2022 年10 月 yoy%24 2023 3.2.4+ECA 2020 44GWh 2030 1200GWh 1 2+3 Stellantis,100GWh 2023 6 8 13.1 2021 2022 2025/LG SK 2023 2022 10%2022 2023 25 21CN 3C 2023 CNC 3D CNC 2023-10-17 30%-40%80%3-4 CNC 3D 3D CNC 3D 3D 3D iPhone 15 pro/pro max Apple Watch Ultra 1/2 Magic Vs 2 Galaxy Watch5 Pro Xiaomi 14pro OPPO Find N2 3.3.1 26 3.3.1 Model Y 1 12000 16000 9000()()16000 LEAP 7000T YouTube 27 3.3.2 2021 AI 2022 9 AI 2023 5 Tesla Bot 2022 AI 1.73 56.7 40 12 2 2 12 12 45 FSD DOJO AI Walker X A1 Fourier GR-1 Cyberone PX5 2021 7 2023 8 2023 7 2022 8 2023 10 130cm 63kg 41 3km/h 6*27*2 6*2*3 175cm 55kg 7km/h 49 5kg 165cm 55kg 5km/h 44 230NM 177cm 52kg 5km/h 21 300NM 11 3kg 1m/s 28 youtube 3.3.2 Business Research 2022 7.48 Maxon Faulhaber Market Research 2021 CR3 55.43%Allied Market Research 2019 15.71 Persistence Market Research 2023 3 5%+10 30 50 100 500 60 40 30 20 15 600 1200 1500 2000 7500 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12/2000 1500 1000 800 500/1200 1000 800 600 400 20 45 50 80 250 14 36 48 72 240 29 3.3.2 11 2 2025 2027 2023 2024 2023-05-31 5(2023-2025 2023-06-28 2025 100 100 300 2023-2025 2023-10-26 2025 10 100 1000 500/2023-11-02 2025 2027 30 3.3.3+2017/5.5%/6.4%2017 2018 2019 2020 1/18-20 15-16 12-14 10-12/2-4 2-4 2-4 2-4 2/7-8 5-6 3.5-4 3-4/1.8-2.5 1.5-2.5 1.5-2 1.5-2 1/8-10-9 6-5-7/2.8 2.4 2 1.5 2/5 4 2.5-3 2/1 0.8 0.6 0.5 3/1.2-1.5 1.2-1.5 1.2-1.6 1.2-1.6 80%5%10%0%50%100%&31 1 80%2 5%3 2022 Bloomberg 180 118+2022 3.3.3 2022 5 5 2022 9 28 CPIA 32 45%/33.7%29.0%CPIA 2023 0.5GW 2030 161GW 2023 2024 5 100MW 2021 2023 18%2023-2024 GW 2022 100MW 2022 D GW 2022 150MW 2023 4 1GW 100 2024 Q3 2022 20%10MW 2024 100MW 10MW 2023 Q3 150MW GW 2021 6 60 200MW 10GW 2022 8000 10MW 2023 2 100MW 200MW/0.4 0.5 2 4 16 29 56 86 161 0204060801001201401601802022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GW 3.3.4 N CPIA N P P PERC TOPCon HJT N 2030 TOPCon HJT 60%TOP-Con HJT 0-1 1 2023 2 TOPcon HJT 0BB 3 SMBB 碁 2022 A()CPIA 2022-2023 2022-2030 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2030 p BSF p 19.5%19.7%-PERC p 21.1%21.3%-PERC p 22.5%22.7%22.9%-p PERC p 23.2%23.3%23.4%23.5%23.6%23.7%n TOPCon 24.5%24.9%25.2%25.4%25.7%26.0%24.6%25.0%25.4%25.7%25.9%26.1%XBC 24.5%24.9%25.2%25.6%25.9%26.1%PVD沉积种子铜 感光材料涂覆 烘干处理 曝光 显影 铜电镀电镀 推掩膜 去种子层 镀锡 烘干铜 3.3.4 33 34 2023 3.3.4 LG SDI AESC 8 2025 600GWh 46 2170 95%46 4680 4695 1 46 100 46 2 23 20GWh 50GWh 3 5 472.31GWh 1 4695 46120 310Wh/kg 15min 2 23 3 10GWh 4695 1 130 450 30GWh 2 24 280Wh/kg PACK 46 46 500mm/s 46 4680 4680 35 3.3.4+PET/PP+2023 229 30/12/0-1/2023 12 8 36 Wind Wind PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 688305.SH 65.78 3.15 4.89 7.38 0.60 1.07 1.64 61.30 40.22 002595.SZ 228.88 66.42 74.49 85.86 12.00 15.43 17.73 14.83 12.91 601882.SH 128.67 31.77 36.70 44.25 5.21 6.29 7.64 20.47 16.84 688697.SH 63.28 18.46 23.53 28.68 2.62 3.27 4.09 19.34 15.46 000837.SZ 111.69 41.01 43.99 53.79 2.75 2.54 3.59 44.02 31.13 300580.SZ 112.00 10.97 13.74 17.69 2.29 2.83 3.58 39.65 31.29 300161.SZ 73.86 16.63 21.09 26.48 0.17 0.89 1.62 83.12 45.50 002430.SZ 293.03 128.03 136.06 161.17 12.10 12.07 15.43 24.28 18.99 688106.SH 115.89 19.67 24.15 30.11 2.29 3.38 4.29 34.31 27.00 688147.SH 168.83 6.85 16.56 35.53 0.54 2.12 4.66 79.79 36.25 300567.SZ 245.99 27.31 32.31 42.28 2.72 3.09 4.78 79.48 51.45 603283.SH 150.92 29.30 40.00 53.44 3.07 4.79 6.16 31.51 24.51 688630.SH 碁 108.53 6.52 9.43 13.29 1.37 2.03 2.97 53.38 36.59 688419.SH 30.18 2.69 0.57 002353.SZ 274.70 114.09 136.80 157.58 22.45 25.20 30.49 10.90 9.01 600761.SH 113.92 156.73 177.95 204.97 9.04 12.92 15.49 8.82 7.35 603298.SH 203.58 144.12 164.37 188.04 9.88 15.79 18.33 12.89 11.11 300450.SZ 387.63 139.32 196.70 246.61 23.18 35.49 45.40 10.92 8.54 688006.SH 135.16 34.54 50.50 64.90 4.91 9.63 12.65 14.04 10.69 300457.SZ 115.68 90.20 110.29 131.05 4.87 8.31 11.06 13.92 10.46 688559.SH 73.04 41.05 63.56 76.87 3.80 6.82 9.16 10.71 7.98 688518.SH 74.78 28.22 38.05 44.46 2.67 4.14 5.27 18.05 14.20 688789.SH 125.86 8.95 11.94 15.97 2.43 3.27 4.30 38.45 29.29 688646.SH 35.35 5.39 7.97 11.35 0.94 1.19 1.88 29.71 18.80 688700.SH 135.69 10.12 12.49 20.91 2.13 2.56 4.30 52.93 31.56 603800.SH 53.93 21.90 29.52 37.20 1.06 2.22 4.18 24.28 12.91 002050.SZ 1054.46 213.48 268.86 329.31 25.73 31.63 39.32 33.34 26.81 601689.SH 775.84 159.93 216.23 290.16 17.00 22.96 31.49 33.80 24.64 688017.SH 252.18 4.46 3.92 5.66 1.55 1.17 1.72 216.40 146.72 002472.SZ 224.65 68.38 84.26 102.66 5.82 8.12 10.57 27.68 21.26 300580.SZ 112.00 10.97 13.74 17.69 2.29 2.83 3.58 39.65 31.29 300660.SZ 97.96 29.00 33.87 40.83 2.59 3.45 4.45 28.38 21.99 873593.BJ 39.34 3.18 3.98 5.17 1.01 1.18 1.54 33.22 25.50 603728.SH 297.70 29.60 32.52 40.77 2.47 2.24 3.55 133.05 83.93 002139.SZ 119.03 88.75 94.50 113.63 5.83 6.26 8.24 19.01 14.44 688698.SH 83.37 9.06 12.95 17.48 1.40 2.09 2.91 39.95 28.69 688160.SH 50.90 5.39 5.95 7.18 0.91 0.95 1.17 53.83 43.69 300503.SZ 52.77 9.87 0.22 603662.SH 93.57 10.61 12.18 14.91 2.60 3.14 3.93 29.80 23.82 37 1 2 3 4 5 6 玥 玥 SAC S0850520070002:(021)23219814 Email:(021)23185686 Email:38 SAC S0850521100001:(021)23185625 Email:SAC S0850523060003:021-23183821 Email:(021)23180000 Email:1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%39