20231201_华创证券_电力及公用事业行业深度研究报告：电改之路机制篇“破局”与“重构”_33页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 12 1 1”2015-2022/18%1 2023 11 30%-50%0.02/2 0.0991/”100MW 2022”1 2 3 4 A/010-63214656 S0360518070002%()227 0.03()35,571.42 3.97()28,949.85 4.18%1M 6M 12M 0.0%-6.4%-1.0%2.0%3.5%5.6%2023 42 2023-11-19 2023-11-14 2023 41 2023-11-12-8%-1%5%11%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/09 23/112022-11-302023-11-30 300 2009 1210 1 2 1 2 3 4 A/WUBYyRrMmPpOqOtQnQsNnM7N8QaQmOrRoMtQeRoPmOjMmMqM8OoPrQMYnMoMuOtQsP 2009 1210 3.6“”.6.6.8 1.8 2.9.10“”.11.11 1.12 2.13 3.14.15“”.17.17 1.17 2.19 3.19 4.20.21 1.21 2.22.23 1.23 2.24.26.28 1.28 2.28.30 2009 1210 4 1 2015-2022%.6 2 2015-2022.6 3 2010-2022.7 4 2010-2022 8.7 5.8 6.9 7.9 8.10 9.11 10.11 11 2023H1%.12 12.12 13.13 14 35kV 24h.13 15 35kV 1h.13 16 2022 1 100.14 17 2022 1.14 18.15 19.16 20.16 21.17 22.18 23.18 24.19 25.20 26.20 27 A.21 28 B.21 29.21 30.22 31.22 32.22 33.23 2009 1210 5 34.24 35.24 36.24 37.25 38.25 39.26 40.26 41 2017-2022.26 42.27 43.28 44.29 2009 1210 6 2 2015-2022/37.5%/15.8%7.7%/0.9/0.5/0.2/0.1/1.0 2015-2022 5.1%/7.1%/18%/1 2015-2022%2 2015-2022 Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 100%110%120%130%140%150%0246810121416182015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2009 1210 7 2014-2015 0 2022 8 2010 3 2010-2022 4 2010-2022 8 Wind Wind 20%”20%4,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,2005,4002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 3603804004204404604802010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 8 2009 1210 8 5/2023 11 1 2020 2022 0.0991 2023 2009 1210 9 6()2 2023 11 10 2024-2025 30%50%2026 7 2024-2025 50%165/30%100/2026 70%231/50%165/10%50%100%2009 1210 10 2023 7 11.09 2022/0.02/0.01-0.03/2023 7 17 2022/13 2022 83%83%2022/8 0.01-0.03/0.04/0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.040/2009 1210 11 9 10 2023 60%19%16%2009 1210 12 11 2023H1%1 12 50%80%20%40%,167,60%,54,19%,45,16%,12,5%00.10.20.30.40.50.6/2009 1210 13 13%Pn 50(80)20(40)%Pn/min 1-2 4-5 H 3-5 1.5-2.5 H 10 0.1 2 50Hz 14 35kV 24h 15 35kV 1h 2022 2023H1 54 19%2022 1 100 20 2009 1210 14 16 2022 1 100 1120 1080 772 683 502#4-5 467 443 365 649#3-4 397 370 148 112#5-6 686#1-4 430 761 400 182 364 17 2022 1 3 2009 1210 15 18 10/MWh 10/MWh 10 00-12 00 18 00-22 00 10/MWh 5/MWh 1 50%70%0.07/50%70%0.35/2 50%0.07/3 70%70%0.01/60%60 40 R4/0.5 R4/50%R4 20/MWh 10/MWh 6/MWh 15/MWh 18.4/MWh 44.35/MWh 10 0.2/0/50%300/MW 2009 1210 16 19/MW/MW 1 40%50%10 300 2 35%40%200 500 3 30%35%350 700 4 25%30%600 1200 5 20%25%800 1600 6 15%20%1000 2000 7 10%15%1200 2400 8 5%10%1500 3000 9 0%5%1800 3600 45%1kw 0.001 1kw 0.015 2.5%1kw 0.329 1kw 0.69 100MW 20/KW/KW 210+150 180+120 150+90 120+60 45.00%0.001 0.015 22 18 14 9 37.50%0.006 0.043 73 59 45 31 32.50%0.020 0.073 143 116 90 64 27.50%0.044 0.120 258 211 165 118 22.50%0.079 0.190 427 351 274 198 17.50%0.124 0.280 645 530 415 300 12.50%0.179 0.390 912 750 588 426 7.50%0.246 0.525 1239 1019 799 580 2.50%0.329 0.690 1639 1348 1058 768 100MW 0.95 2009 1210 17 1 2 3 4 6 21 1 2009 1210 18 22 23:;:+:;/:+:;:+:;:+1 2/2009 1210 19 24 2 3 2009 1210 20 25 80%85%85%10 70%90%217h-240h 70%20%15%90%75%80%2 75%80%85%85%90%4 40%4 45%60%65%4 65%4 70%2024 13.41 2019-2024 16.2%4 A B 26 2009 1210 21/B 27 A 28 B A A 80.27 B 190.18 188+2.18-1.59 3.77 2.18 29 1 2009 1210 22 30 2 20%1.5/3 31 32 05001,0001,5002,00001002003004005006007002022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09/5 Q550001002003004005006007002022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09/2009 1210 23 0 1 2020 6 150-200kW 33 2009 1210 24 34 2 1 2 3 35 36 1 2009 1210 25 37 2 38 2009 1210 26 39 40 2017 14 2022 2022 2022 6 2021 41 2017-2022 2017()8 2021 6 2022 3 2022 2022 6 10 12 2023 2009 1210 27 42/2023 2024 6 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 6 2023 2009 1210 28 1 43 2 火电设备 工程建设 火电运营火电灵活性改造带来的机组改造需求央企地方国企 2009 1210 29 44 2009 1210 30 1 2 3 2009 1210 31 2017 2019 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522