20231227_中泰证券_银行业2024年投资策略：宏观到客群客群到收入稳健中有生机_60页.pdf

银行2024 年 投 资 策 略：稳 健 中 有 生 机 宏 观 到 客 群，客 群 到 收 入 银行 证 券 研 究 报 告/投资策略 告 2023 年 12 月 27 日 Table_Title S0740517030004 Email S0740519050002 Email Table_Profit 42()9,725,613()6,540,540 Table_QuotePic-Table_Report Table_Finance()EPS PE PEG 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 27.27 32.71 36.84 41.70 46.95 5.04 4.56 4.18 3.87 9.10 18.80 21.05 23.52 26.17 3.96 3.51 3.23 3.00 19.44 23.14 26.26 30.24 34.62 5.75 4.98 4.38 3.96 6.55 11.42 11.70 13.26 15.05 3.81 3.88 3.39 2.95 6.52 9.69 11.81 13.31 15.14 6.09 4.41 3.52 2.86 2023/12/26 1 2 1 2024 0.5 2 2024 4.8 3 4 2024 2 0.6 0.4/1 08-14 12 5 2021 LPR 2 3 4 2024 1 2024 15bp 6.7bp LPR 24 7.4bp 5.6bp 4Q23 1.4bp 24 4.2bp 24 5bp 22024-0.3%2024+0.6%2024-3.5%-20%-10%0%10%20%2022-12-312023-01-302023-03-012023-03-312023-04-302023-05-302023-06-292023-07-292023-08-282023-09-272023-10-272023-11-262023-12-26银行（申万）沪深300-2-1 beta WUFUyRtOpMrQtNsRtOsNmN9P9R8OsQnNpNnOfQmNtRkPmOyRaQoOvNMYrMzRMYoPnQ-3-2024.-6-1.1.-6-1.2.-6-.-7-2.1.-7-2.2.-8-2.3.-13-2.4.-17-2.5.-26-2.6.-28-2.7.-33-.-36-3.1.-36-3.2.-38-3.3.-39-3.4.-41-2024.-46-4.1 24 15bp Q1 6.7bp-46-4.2 24-0.3%23.-53-2024.-57-4-1.-8-2 2012-2019.-9-3 2021-2022.-10-4.-10-5 2024.-11-6 30%.-11-7 30%.-11-8.-13-9.-13-10.-13-11.-14-12.-16-13.-17-14.-18-15(BCI).-18-16.-18-17:PMI.-18-18.-19-19.-19-20.-21-21.-21-22 IMF GDP%.-21-23 1-11.-21-24 2023%.-23-25%.-23-26.-23-27.-24-28%.-24-29.-25-30 2023.-27-31.-27-5-32.-29-33.-29-34 2024.-30-35.-32-36:%.-32-37.-33-38.-34-39.-36-40.-37-41.-39-42.-40-43.-42-44%:.-44-45 2003-2020.-44-46 21.-45-47 LPR.-46-48.-48-49.-49-50.-51-51.-53-52.-54-53.-54-54.-56-6-2024 1.1 2024 2023 2023 3.8%1 1.3 12 22 5%+3%8%SPV 1.2 1 2 3“”-7-2.1 1 2024 0.5 2024-400 4200 1892 1740 7.3 6.5 1.09 2181 1.3 2609 2 2024 4.8 2023 6.7 3 1.6%1.8%1.6%GDP 13%2025 17%4+2024 2 0.6 0.4/4.7/10=47%66%-8-/20 1 2.2 1 1 1-10 70 1-10 6 1-11 2 10 7053 21.2%09 10 8653 16.7%10 9278 22 17%9.6%11 17 2 4 28-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000政信 房地产 制造+批零 按揭 信用卡 消费贷 经营贷2022年增量 2023 预计增量 2024预计增量-9-7 21 7 28 10 12 23Q3 15%12 12 7 7 2 1 PSL 15%3 24 5000 2000 7 1 2024 2012-2019 3 2021 1 2024 0.5 2022.112023.10 3.9 2022 22%2023 0.86 2024 2023 60%2024 0.5 450 1.5 3000/4500 35%4500 30%1350 3 450 2 2012-2019 -10-wind 3 2021-2022 wind 2024-400 4200 2022.102023.9 10.9 4900 2024-10%0%2024 2022-400 4200-5%1892/92%1740 4 wind -11-5 2024 wind 2 7 1.3 12 12 1 21 30%2 7.3 6.5 21 2105 7.3 40%30%20%9.7 7.3 5 8.7 6.5 4.3 6 30%7 30%乐观（按揭投放增速 0%）中性（按揭投放增速-5%）悲观（按揭投放增速-1 0%）按揭贷款新投放量 45,750 45,750 43,462 41,175 早偿量 50,650 41,571 41,571 41,571 按揭贷款净增量-4,900 4,179 1,892-396 上市银行按揭净增量-4,508 3,845 1,740-364 最近一年（2 0 2 2.1 0 2 0 2 3.9）2024城市城中村面积（平方米）翻新成本（元）临迁成本（元）土地成本（元）建安成本（元）拆除费用（元）投资额（元）投资额（亿元）深圳 45,267,323 31,687,126,264 36,666,531,820 852,877,110,336 99,814,447,733 814,811,818 1,021,905,295,295 10,219 上海 13,036,858 9,125,800,524 10,559,854,892 251,782,140,138 28,746,271,650 234,663,442 300,461,767,503 3,005 北京 16,129,497 11,290,648,226 13,064,892,948 279,269,345,028 35,565,541,913 290,330,954 339,496,888,566 3,395 东莞 26,797,199 9,379,019,743 21,705,731,405 280,775,694,462 29,101,758,402 482,349,587 341,471,350,798 3,415 杭州 47,426,620 16,599,316,859 38,415,561,873 480,023,787,576 51,505,308,881 853,679,153 587,445,080,961 5,874 广州 49,950,395 34,965,276,280 40,459,819,695 564,219,678,205 110,140,620,281 899,107,104 750,734,451,959 7,507 南京 32,947,044 11,531,465,349 26,687,105,522 318,881,258,644 35,780,489,625 593,046,789 393,506,312,973 3,935 武汉 55,719,750 19,501,912,395 45,132,997,258 287,079,294,408 60,511,648,175 1,002,955,495 413,284,527,480 4,133 西安 34,521,697 12,082,594,030 27,962,574,754 197,032,586,924 37,490,563,189 621,390,550 275,224,231,144 2,752 天津 9,334,856 3,267,199,545 7,561,233,232 49,021,995,457 10,137,653,445 168,027,405 70,165,443,941 702 成都 41,914,862 14,670,201,601 33,951,037,991 274,324,386,966 45,519,539,825 754,467,511 369,261,548,755 3,693 昆明 42,020,659 14,707,230,636 34,036,733,759 157,048,010,802 45,634,435,632 756,371,861 252,224,803,350 2,522 重庆 43,652,430 15,278,350,396 35,358,468,059 193,607,256,216 47,406,538,657 785,743,735 292,480,009,492 2,925 郑州 70,252,971 24,588,539,822 56,904,906,446 315,253,181,711 76,294,726,420 1,264,553,477 474,376,160,847 4,744 长沙 60,315,132 21,110,296,138 48,855,256,775 256,779,610,704 65,502,233,158 1,085,672,373 393,393,384,280 3,934 青岛 46,403,100 16,241,085,059 37,586,511,136 227,398,392,373 50,393,766,782 835,255,803 332,501,414,253 3,325 济南 41,676,355 14,586,724,398 33,757,847,892 212,711,950,438 45,260,521,988 750,174,398 307,108,895,469 3,071 佛山 25,108,751 8,788,062,743 20,338,088,062 131,535,956,825 27,268,103,254 451,957,512 188,407,277,147 1,884 大连 9,726,839 3,404,393,805 7,878,739,949 44,805,713,212 10,563,347,635 175,083,110 66,837,004,551 668 沈阳 11,727,359 4,104,575,529 9,499,160,510 36,955,252,592 12,735,911,499 211,092,456 63,517,719,945 635 哈尔滨 6,249,531 2,187,335,938 5,062,120,315 23,126,390,400 6,786,990,940 112,491,563 37,281,578,688 373 总投资 299,097,155,279 591,445,174,292 5,434,508,993,418 932,160,419,085 13,143,226,095 7,271,085,147,396 72,711 -12-2 1.09 1.2 1.09 2181 1.3 2609 50%15%10%10%15%15%1.46 1.09 0.75 2913 2181 1497 20%-35%2022 4%2018-2022 24%20%20%1.7 1.3 0.9 3478 2609 1739 10.3%7.7%5.1%城市 销售单价（元）新建房面积（平方米）可售房面积（平方米）销售额度（元）销售额度（亿元）深圳 62,803 27,160,394 16,296,236 1,023,452,532,403 10,235 上海 64,377 7,822,115 4,693,269 302,138,568,165 3,021 北京 57,714 9,677,698 5,806,619 335,123,214,033 3,351 东莞 34,926 16,078,320 9,646,992 336,930,833,354 3,369 杭州 33,738 28,455,972 17,073,583 576,028,545,092 5,760 广州 37,652 29,970,237 17,982,142 677,063,613,846 6,771 南京 32,262 19,768,226 11,860,936 382,657,510,373 3,827 武汉 17,174 33,431,850 20,059,110 344,495,153,290 3,445 西安 19,025 20,713,018 12,427,811 236,439,104,309 2,364 天津 17,505 5,600,914 3,360,548 58,826,394,549 588 成都 21,816 25,148,917 15,089,350 329,189,264,359 3,292 昆明 12,458 25,212,395 15,127,437 188,457,612,963 1,885 重庆 14,784 26,191,458 15,714,875 232,328,707,460 2,323 郑州 14,958 42,151,783 25,291,070 378,303,818,053 3,783 长沙 14,191 36,189,079 21,713,447 308,135,532,845 3,081 青岛 16,335 27,841,860 16,705,116 272,878,070,847 2,729 济南 17,013 25,005,813 15,003,488 255,254,340,526 2,553 佛山 17,462 15,065,250 9,039,150 157,843,148,190 1,578 大连 15,355 5,836,104 3,501,662 53,766,855,854 538 沈阳 10,504 7,036,415 4,221,849 44,346,303,111 443 哈尔滨 12,335 3,749,719 2,249,831 27,751,668,481 278 总额 6,521,410,792,101 65,214 -13-REITs LP 8 wind 9 wind 10 wind 2.3 总投资额（亿元）银行可参与投资额（亿元）五 年 每 年(亿 元）乐观 97,116 14,567 2,913 中性 72,711 10,907 2,181 悲观 49,901 7,485 1,497 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000中国:商品房销售额:住宅:累计 值（亿元）净增住房贷款（亿元）净增个人住房贷款/商品 房住宅 销售额（右轴）销售额（亿元）拉动总个人住房贷款规模（亿元）每年规模（亿元，五年）占过去五年年均个人住房贷款净增额的比重乐观 86,952 17,390 3,478 10.3%中性 65,214 13,043 2,609 7.7%悲观 43,476 8,695 1,739 5.1%-14-1 1 5.7 2.1%5.7 2.1%2 3.1 1.1%3.1 1.1%3 37.8 13.8%37.8 13.8%11 -15-wind 余额 占比 余额 占比 余额 占比 余额 占比工商银行 2.04%70161.6%73,15416.8%8780.2%81,04818.6%建设银行 1.93%40141.0%54,78614.3%1460.0%58,94715.4%农业银行 1.94%20460.5%56,66814.9%6590.2%59,37215.6%中国银行 2.13%36291.2%52,70317.0%1490.0%56,48118.2%交通银行 2.45%22271.6%21,00215.2%5630.4%23,79217.2%邮储银行 1.57%23791.6%12,3658.2%2,7301.8%17,47411.6%招商银行 1.71%15731.5%7,9497.4%8160.8%10,3389.6%中信银行 2.21%11811.3%11,18512.7%2,0442.3%14,41116.3%浦发银行 2.35%19472.2%9,55210.7%3,1343.5%14,63216.4%民生银行 2.44%41875.5%9,28412.1%4670.6%13,93818.2%兴业银行 2.35%50185.1%10,73210.9%4,7164.8%20,46620.7%光大银行 2.40%35095.2%8,41612.5%4770.7%12,40218.4%华夏银行 2.25%19874.8%7,00617.1%3,5228.6%12,51530.5%平安银行 2.25%8271.5%8571.6%2500.5%1,9343.5%浙商银行 2.35%15495.3%3,38611.6%6942.4%5,62919.3%北京银行 2.13%11513.2%4,60312.7%1,9565.4%7,71021.2%南京银行 2.46%9514.3%3,80017.1%1,7507.9%6,50229.3%宁波银行 2.09%13705.3%2,4829.5%7512.9%4,60317.7%江苏银行 2.36%12053.7%4,00112.1%5361.6%5,74117.4%贵阳银行 2.53%1662.5%1,25618.7%74111.1%2,16332.3%杭州银行 2.31%14168.1%3,08917.7%6433.7%5,14829.5%上海银行 2.22%24508.1%3,73612.3%3101.0%6,49521.4%成都银行 2.28%3943.8%2,56124.9%3163.1%3,27231.8%长沙银行 2.19%5275.3%1,28612.9%4674.7%2,28022.8%青岛银行 2.33%4157.3%89115.7%931.6%1,39924.6%郑州银行 2.40%771.2%1,15118.7%3696.0%1,59725.9%西安银行 2.59%3488.2%56513.4%1413.3%1,05524.9%苏州银行 2.25%3295.7%66711.5%3195.5%1,31522.7%厦门/银行 2.45%1544.4%3319.4%70.2%49113.9%齐鲁银行 2.20%2053.7%99118.0%2394.3%1,43626.1%重庆银行 2.81%74910.3%1,42119.5%4876.7%2,65736.5%兰州银行 2.75%1162.5%55111.9%751.6%74116.1%江阴银行 2.08%00.0%1759.9%00.0%1759.9%无锡银行 2.38%1104.8%34615.2%00.0%45620.1%常熟银行 2.32%1304.1%1635.1%621.9%35511.2%苏农银行 2.11%894.5%1839.2%30.1%27513.8%张家港行 2.44%814.1%1457.3%180.9%24412.2%青农商行 2.19%1032.2%63913.7%1172.5%85918.5%紫金银行 2.32%813.3%48519.5%130.5%57923.3%渝农商行 2.05%5513.8%1,76612.3%740.5%2,39016.6%瑞丰银行 2.23%1055.5%1256.6%181.0%24813.1%沪农商行 2.07%7165.3%1,0818.0%50.0%1,80313.3%国有行 2.01%213111.2%270,67815.0%5,1250.3%297,11416.5%股份行 2.26%217783.3%68,36610.5%16,1212.5%106,26516.3%城商行 2.32%120225.1%33,38314.2%9,1993.9%54,60423.2%农商行 2.24%19654.1%5,10810.6%3100.6%7,38415.3%合计 2.26%570772.1%377,53513.8%30,7551.1%465,36717.0%平台类资产合计 负债成本率（1 H 2 3）城投债 城投贷款 城投非标-16-2 5.2%100bp 6.6%200bp 5.97%100bp-150bp 1/3 2/3 2-8bp 2-8bp 2-8bp 3-8bp 2-9bp 2022 3.0%-10.8%3.0%-11.0%2.8%-9.8%3.5%-11.5%3.3%-12.2%12 wind 3 2024 4.8 2023 1 2024 60%2024 724 2024 4.8 2023 2024 2024 4.8 2023 对 息 差 影 响(b p)国有行 21,311 270,678 5,125 1,799,794-5股份行 21,778 68,366 16,121 653,068-4城商行 12,022 33,383 9,199 235,039-5农商行 1,965 5,108 310 48,213-5合计 57,077 377,535 30,755 2,736,115-5城投债 城投贷款 城投非标 总资产中性情况-17-6.5 2023 1H23 16.7%22 12.6%2023 15%11 16.6%18.1%2024 13%2023+2024 6.5 2023 13 wind 4 2.4 1 BCI 50 11 27 11 27 3Q23 0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.0010000.0020000.0030000.0040000.0050000.0060000.002021-12 2022-03 2022-06 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09基础设施贷款增量（TTM，亿 元）基础设施贷款余额同比增 速（右 轴）-18-14 15(BCI)wind wind 2 90%1 11 1-11 5.2%2023 11 PMI 15 2022 1-10 16 17:PMI-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.002020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08私营企业 国有企业0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10-19-wind wind 2 4.3%10%3 1-10 10%90%2022 59 180%2023 80-85 40%415 2023 18 19-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-08中国:制造业:营业收入:累计同 比中国:出口金额:累计同比40.0042.0044.0046.0048.0050.0052.0054.0056.0058.002019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-08-20-wind wind 3 2024 1 2023 6-3.16%9+1.57%2022 6 6-8 5 54%-21-20 21 wind wind 2 1-11 4736 15.4%1-11 7.4%IMF GDP 4.5%4%22 IMF GDP%23 1-11-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-09美国销售同比美国库存同比美国进口中国金额同比（右轴）0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-09美国销售同比 美国库存同比美国库存销售比（右轴）-22-wind wind 3 1-23Q3 2025 GDP 17%2021-2025 7%2025 GDP 17%2022 GDP 13%7 13%45 2022 20 66 2 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002023 2024-30-20-100102030405060-50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 350,000.00 400,000.00 450,000.00 500,000.00东南亚国家联盟欧洲联盟美国中国香港拉丁美洲非洲日本韩国印度俄罗斯英国澳大利亚中国台湾加拿大新西兰出口总值 同比增速（%，右轴）-23-2022 7.4%3.8 23 10 11.1%8.2 20.4 2.8 4.9 24 2023%25%wind wind 26 wind-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09中国:规模以上工业增加值:高技术产业:累计同比中国:规模以上工业增加值:累计同比-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08中国:固定资产投资完成额:累计同比中国:房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:基础设施建设投资:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:制造业:累计同比中国:固定资产投资完成额:高技术产业:累计同比-24-3 6%15%30%35%1.6%1.8%1.6%GDP 13%2025 17%23Q3 28.6(1H23 27.05)1.98 23Q2 2.5 41.5%2.72 20%3 20%4.09%39bp 2.36 25.1%25%4.5%29bp 23Q2 4500 1000 A 27 Wind 28%贷款种类 规模（万亿）占比金融机构企事业单位贷款余额 同比增速高技术制造业中长期贷款 2.5 1.6%41.5%全国“专精 特新”中小 企业 贷款 2.7 1.8%20.0%科技型中小企业贷款余额 2.36 1.6%25.1%绿色贷款 27.05 17.8%36.8%占G D P 比重2 0 2 2 年战 略新 兴产 业增 加值 占G D P 比重 13%2 0 2 5 年战 略新 兴产 业增 加值 占G D P 比重 目标 17%相关新兴产业贷款规模及占比（1 H 2 3)季度中长期高技术制造业中长期贷款房地产业中长期贷款基础设施中长期贷款工业绿色贷款绿色贷款:基础设施绿色升级绿色贷款:清洁能源绿色贷款:节能环保2021-09 39.7 0.2 24.1 27.9 25.7 22.82021-12 32.8-0.5 15.3 22.6 33.0 28.3 31.7 46.72022-03 31.9-1.5 13.2 20.7 38.6 31.3 39.3 58.02022-06-1.4 12.5 21.2 40.4 32.2 40.8 62.82022-09 1.1 12.5 23.3 41.4 34.0 40.9 63.22022-12 4.0 13.0 26.5 38.5 32.8 34.9 59.12023-03 42.5 6.4 15.2 31.7 38.3 34.2 32.12023-06 41.5 7.1 15.8 32.4 38.4 34.3 35.0 49.22023-09 6.2 15.1 30.9 36.8 32.8 36.2 42.3-25-Wind 4 3Q23 6%ipo ipo 5 2021 29 -26-2.5 1 1H23 9.3%13.2%2 2023 1-10 9514 19 1524 21 4611,60%类型 序号 名称 股东注册资本（亿元）获批日期1 建信理财 建设银行 150 2018/12/262 中银理财 中国银行 100 2018/12/263 农银理财 农业银行 120 2019/1/44 交银理财 交通银行 80 2019/1/45 工银理财 工商银行 160 2019/2/156 中邮理财 邮储银行 80 2019/5/287 光大理财 光大银行 50 2019/4/168 招银理财 招商银行 50 2019/4/169 兴银理财 兴业银行 50 2019/6/610 信银理财 中信银行 50 2019/12/411 平安理财 平安银行 50 2019/12/2712 华夏理财 华夏银行 30 2020/4/2613 广银理财 广发银行 50 2020/7/1314 浦银理财 浦发银行 50 2020/8/415 民生理财 民生银行 50 2020/12/716 渤银理财 渤海银行 20 2021/4/2517 恒丰理财 恒丰银行 20 2021/6/1618 杭银理财 杭州银行 10 2019/6/2419 宁银理财 宁波银行 15 2019/6/2620 徽银理财 徽商银行 20 2019/8/2121 南银理财 南京银行 20 2019/12/922 苏银理财 江苏银行 20 2019/12/1923 青银理财 青岛银行 10 2020/2/624 上银理财 上海银行 30 2021/7/2225 北银理财 北京银行 20 2022/8/21农商行 26 渝衣商理财 重庆农商行 20 2020/2/1127 汇华理财 东方汇理(55%)，中银理财(45%）10 2019/12/2028 贝莱德建信理财 贝莱德(50.1%)，建信理财（40%)，富登(9.9%)10 2020/8/1129 施罗德交银理财 施罗德(51%)，交银理财(49%)10 2021/2/1930 高盛工银理财 高盛(51%)，工银理财(49%)10 2021/5/2031 法巴农银理财 法巴资管(51%)，农银理财(49%)10 2022/10/13国有行股份行城商行中外合资-27-1-10 1.2 19 7557 21 758 59%1-10 1.7 19 1.1 21 0.5 41%30 2023 wind 3 3 9(2023 3 15-2023 9 15)4 5 31 净增 住户贷款 短 期 贷 款:消 费 贷 款 短 期 贷 款:经 营 贷 款 中 长 期 贷 款:消 费 贷 款 中 长 期 贷 款:经 营 贷 款 住 户 贷 款:消 费 贷 款 住 户 贷 款:经 营 贷 款2 3 年 1-3 月 净 增 25,432 5,672 7,279 5,562 6,920 11,233 14,198 2 3 年 4-6 月 净 增 10,856 2,328 3,343-490 5,675 1,838 9,018 2 3 年 7-9 月 净 增 10,561 1,591 2,606 2,236 4,129 3,827 6,734 1 9 年 1-1 0 月 净 增 61,033 7,990 4,694 42,053 6,296 50,043 10,990 2 0 年 1-1 0 月 净 增 65,570-14,022 10,941 59,819 8,833 45,797 19,773 2 1 年 1-1 0 月 净 增 68,098 4,902 11,493 39,688 12,015 44,590 23,508 2 2 年 1-1 0 月 净 增 33,920 308 10,067 10,316 13,228 10,624 23,296 2 3 年 1-1 0 月 净 增 46,503 9,514 12,251 7,747 16,991 17,261 29,242 -28-2.6 2023/消费贷规模及增速 1H22 2022 1H23 1 H 2 3 同比 1 H 2 3 较年初工商银行 187,316 210,826 232,442 262,397 24.5%12.9%建设银行 240,147 262,291 301,416 374,806 42.9%24.3%农业银行 193,706 205,654 209,036 277,099 34.7%32.6%交通银行 114,706 124,879 135,652 139,613 11.8%2.9%邮储银行 496,621 469,782 466,882 469,759 0.0%0.6%招商银行 211,143 238,023 257,024 334,201 40.4%30.0%中信银行 239,589 241,467 250,813 277,420 14.9%10.6%浦发银行 176,400 159,141 140,947 1