20230710_国联证券_化工行业证券研究报告：关注去全球化背景下的再生产业投资机遇_49页.pdf

1 Tabl e_First Table_First|Table_ReportType Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summar y PE PP PVC PET PA PET 2025 PCR 25-30%ESG EPS PE C A GR-3 202 3 E 202 4 E 20 2 5 E 202 3 E 202 4 E 202 5 E 1.72 3.36 5.54 30.23 15.48 9.39 523%0.47 0.83 1.30 22.85 12.94 8.26 63%0.94 1.18 1.45 17.66 13.98 11.39 25%-Wind wind 2023 07 07 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportDate 2023 07 10 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rati ng()Tabl e_First|Tabl e_C hart Table_First|Table_Author S0590522020004 Table_First|Table_Contacter Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Rel ateRepor t 1 2023.07.08 2 2023.07.01 3 2023.06.25 2 CO2 ZXAZyRmRnOmNsMtQmRsNpOaQdN8OmOpPmOmPkPqQsNjMoPmN6MqRrPvPtPmMNZqRqM 3 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.12 3.14 3.1.14 3.2 PE PP.18 3.3 PVC.21 3.4 PET.22 3.5 6.30 3.6.34 4.35 4.1.35 4.2.38 4.3.41 4.4.44 5.44 5.1.44 5.2.45 5.3.46 5.4.47 6.48 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.10 10.10 11.11 12 2014-2021.11 13.13 14 2020.14 4 15 2030.14 16.15 17.15 18.15 19.16 20.17 21.18 22.19 23.20 24.21 25 PVC.22 26 2021.22 27 2020 PET.23 28 PET.23 29 R-PET.23 30 PET.24 31 PET.25 32 PET.26 33 PET.26 34 PET.27 35 PET.27 36 PET.28 37 PET.28 38 PET.29 39 6.30 40 66.30 41 6.31 42 66.31 43 6 6.31 44.33 45 DuPont.33 46.34 47 UNEA-5.2.35 48 PCR.36 49 PCR.36 50 PCR.37 51 PCR.37 52.38 53 2022 6.39 54 PCR.41 55.42 56.43 57 2018-2022 Polymetrix.45 58 2018-2022 Polymetrix.45 59.48 5 1 20 30 1.1 4 Nature 1950 2021 87 11%60 10 1 Three ways to solve the plastics pollution crisis Nature 4.11-2023 6/2 The global threat from plastic pollution Science,2021,373,61-65 2015 17 3.4%2050 15%1.2 3 7 76.3%93.1%30 40 CO2/4 5 1 tCO2/t 0.737 3.12 tCO2/60 1.57 22.7 2 tCO2/1.78 3.09 8 6 PLA PHA PBAT PCL PBS PBAT PLA 7 9 2 PBAT PLA 2.1 PLA PBAT 8/Mpa/%PLA 60 6 PBAT 18 750 HDPE 21-40 500 PP 21-39 200-400 PVC 39-58 120 10 1.67-8.4 9 PLA PBAT 0.007%10 050001000015000200002500030000PBAT,/PLA,/,/11 8%11 2021 8000 1742 12 2014-2021 12 2.2 HDPE PP PS PET L pez PET PET 42%5 PET 0.7%5 7,388 7,561 7,717 7,516 6,042 8,184 7,603 8,004 20001800187816931830 18901600174201000200030004000500060007000800090002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 13 13 2022 2020 40%25%19%16%1%2030 50%17%14 14 2020 15 2030 3 PET PA PVC 3.1 PE PP PS PVC C-C PA PET PC PU C-N/O HDPE PP PVC PET 填埋,40%焚烧,25%遗弃,19%物理回收,12%化学回收,1%回收过程损耗,4%填埋,18%焚烧,31%遗弃,1%物理回收,22%化学回收,17%回收过程损耗,11%15 16 17 Chemical and biological catalysis for plastics recycling and upcycling Nature catalysis,2021,4,539-556 Chemical and biological catalysis for plastics recycling and upcycling Nature catalysis,2021,4,539-556/18 0102030405060加聚类塑料年均消费（百万吨）010203040506070缩聚类塑料年均消费（百万吨）16 19 17 900 600-900 600-20 CO H2)C1-C4 18(PP PE PS PVC)RDF BTX/(PET PU PA PC)DMT PTA CPL)C H 5 BTX 21 0.1/0-3 1 1/0-3 2 2/5-10 2.1/5-10 2.2/5-10 2.3/0-3 3 3 10-30 4 4 100 5 5/BTX 500 3.2 PE PP C-C PP PE 19 PP PP 23%MAXIMIZE 2027 PP 118.3 PE Braskem 2021 PE 100 PE 7124/PE 70 22 1 2 20 3 PE PP C-C 400 oC PE PP-4 30 23-21-PE PP 24-3.3 P VC PVC PP PET PVC PVC PVC PVC 85 VinylPlus 2023 2022 PVC 81.3 PVC 27%2025 90/PVC 2030 100 PVC C-C PVC PVC HCl PE PP PE PP PVC HCl 10-70%PVC PVC PVC PVC 22 25 PVC Thermal degradation of PVC:A review Waste Management,2016,48,300-314 3.4 P ET PET PET 2020 PET 7000 14%26 2021 PET 2020 75%PET 20%2021 3819 5504003801501009055 501250100200300400500600废PET 废PE 废PP 废PVC 废ABS 废PS 废PA 废PC 其他2021 年我国各废塑料品种回收 量（万吨）23 619 2021 1900 PET 550 PET 80%GREENEXT 99%PET 1%27 2020 PET 28 PET GREENEXT R PET PET 2025 R PET 2025 R PET 25%2025 100%1/3 R-PET Grand View Research 2021 R-PET 94 2030 R-PET 184.6 7.4%29 R-PET 涤纶,75%瓶,20%膜,5%PET 瓶回收占比,99%废弃聚酯织物回收占比,1%24 R PET PET PET PET PET PET PET(PTA)(EG)PET 30 PET 25 PET PTA EG DMT EG BHET 31 PET PET 1 PET DMT EG 26 32 PET(180280)(24MPa)PET PET PET PET PET 2/33 PET PET EG EG PET PET PET 27 DMT PET PET 34 PET PET 2 EG EG 180 220 BHET 35 PET PET BHET PET BHET BHET 3 28 PTA EG PH EG EG PTA PET PET 36 PET 4 EG 37 PET 29()25190 PET PET PET PET PET PET PET DMT BHET BHET PET BHET PTA PET 38 PET DMT BHET PTA 30 PET 3.5 6 PA 6 66 90%6 39 6 40 66 6 2020 6 600 6 2021 6 400 370 66 6 15%2021 66 60 40 66 200 66 66,50%,23%,19%BOPA,6%,3%BOPA,28%,10%,4%,47%,28%,25%,58%31 41 6 42 66 wind ACMI 64 10%ESG Prada Burberry Lululemon Adidas Aquafil Econyl 2023 3 6 43 6 6 32 wind 1 6 89%/,2 33 66 3 PA6 PA66 PA6 6-PA66 N,N-4 44/DuPont PA6/PA66,HMD AND 6-6-CAN 6-6-45 DuPont 34 3.6 2022 46 Mixed plastics waste valorization through tandem chemical oxidation and biological funneling Science,2022,378,207-211 35 4 ESG PET PA 4.1(UNEA-5)2022 3:2024 47 UNEA-5.2 36 INC 48 PCR THE GLOBAL COMMITMENT 2022 PROGRESS REPORT CocaCola PepsiCo Nestle 2025 PCR 25-50%Walmart Jernimo Martins TARGET Kmart H&M Group 2025 PCR 17-30%2025 26%49 PCR 2021/2021 PCR/%2025 PCR/%CocaCola 3224k 13.6 25 PepsiCo 2500k 6.3 25 Nestle 920k 4.6 30 Unilever 713k 17.7 25 MARS 204k 0 30 LOr al 144k 21 50 DANONE 773k 10.6 50 Henkel 341k 14.3 30 Colgate 279k 14.2 25 Reckitt 199k 4 25 Mondelz 198k 0.5 5 SC Johnson 91k 19.2 25 Kelloggs 64k 0.03 10 Essity 40k 5 25 FrieslandCampina 48k 2.3 15 37 2022 50 PCR 2020/2020 PCR/%2025 PCR/%Walmart 1,427,139 9 17 Jernimo Martins 150,857 8.8 25 STARBUCKS 118,811 0 5 TARGET 69,991 0.6 20 Kmart 41,232 5 30 Carrefour 37,256 9.4 30 A.S.Watson Group 31,422 6.8 20 H&M Group 16,347 12.2 25 Pick n Pay 12,058 22.5 30 Woolworths 11,595 12 30 ASOS 5,117 26.8 50 SELFRIDGES&CO 11 47.7 20 2021 2025 PCR 25-30%51 PCR/2025 PCR/%30 35 30 30 25 30 30 30 30 15(2030)25 25 ADIDAS 2024 Burberry H&M Group The North Face 2025 ADIDAS 2024 Prada 38 Burberry The North Face 2025 Lululemon 2030 52 2020 2021 2022 2025E 2030E Burberry 100%H&M Group 21%64%74%100%Gap Inc./10%16%45%The North Face/85%100%Lululemon 39%50%/75%100%ADIDAS 71%91%96%100%2024 ASICS 19.50%30%30%100%Burberry 100%The North Face 75%100%Lululemon 2%6%100%Prada Group Re-Nylon Re-Nylon 100%100%ADIDAS Prada Re-Nylon 90%4.2 ESG 2020 2025 COMY 4 39 SABIC BASF Pryme New Hope Energy Plastic Energy Quantafuel Freepoint Eco-Systems MURA Brightmark Energy Enerkem 10 P E T 2021 7 r-BHET 9.5 15 5-10 30-50 Axens Carbios Loop Industry PA Aquafil ECONYL 6 2018 CPDC”20/53 2022 6/+-COMY 68.3-Pryme 41 40 New Hope Energy 31 Plastic Energy SABIC Qenos,Axens 21-24 Quantafuel BASF 13 Freepoint Eco-Systems 12.3 MURA KBR LG 10-12 Brightmark Energy BP SK 10 Enerkem NOVA 10 Axens 5 Agilyx Styrolution Virgin Group 4 BlueAlp 3 Itero Kerax 2.7 Clean Planet Energy BP 2 Xycle-2 Alterra Neste Ravago Technip Energies 2 OMV 1.6 Nexus Braskem Licella KBR LG Coles Recycling Technologies Clariter Kerax AECI Fuenix Ecogy PET SK 12-9.5 Axens 8 41 Loop Industry SK 4 Carbios Indorama Ventures 4 Revalyu Heraeus 1.2 NextChem Oviesse H&M 0.1 Garbo-PA 1.5 1 Aquafill-PU-0.5-Repsol-0.2 Vita PMMA Microwave Chemical Agilyx JSW Heathland JSW(EU)-/290 Aquafill COMY 4.3 PCR PCR 1 2025 PET PCR 25%2 30 200 3 2025 2030 PCR 25%30%54 PCR/2025 PET 25%2030 30%42 2022 4 30%200 2022 1 450 PCR 2021 2025 20%PET30%HDPE20%PP20%-2025 2030 25%-30%2021 2025 2030 55 2022 03 2025 25%200 2030 30%300 2021 4)2021 12 43 HJ1034 HJ364 2021 12 2020 8 2020 9-2021 2/56 X X 2022 1 2025 1000 9 4.5/44 2022 30 15%-20%4.4 5 5.1 FCC 4/FCC 3/FCC 2023 45 POX POX CPDC 100/14 2023 6 20/11.99 5.2 PA6/66 vPET PC PBT rPET rPA Lyocell PET 2018 Polymetrix 80%Polymetrix-SSP-PET 45%2018-22 Polymetrix 5 43.7%64.4%22 rPET 4.4 SSP 57 2018-2022 Polymetrix 58 2018-2022 Polymetrix 46 2022 4.9 2023,PA6/66 PA66 PA66 2021 2022 2.25 2.17 PA66 Lyocell 4 Lyocell 2022 AI 5.3 6 66 18.5/-50%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（百万 元）营收YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022净利 润（百万 元）净利润YOY 47 10 6 PA66 2023 4 2024 34.5 10 PA6 PA6 5.4 2012 4 3 7 2022 5 15%85%15 Green Circle 15 PET 48 59 EPS PE X CAGR-3%23E 24E 25E 23E 24E 25E 300779 52.00 1.72 3.36 5.54 30.23 15.48 9.39 523%603055 10.74 0.47 0.83 1.30 22.85 12.94 8.26 63%300384 16.54 0.94 1.18 1.45 17.66 13.98 11.39 25%-Wind wind 2023 07 07 2023 07 07 6 1 2 3 4 49 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%/8 9 1198 1 37 0510-82833337 021-38991500 0510-82833217 021-38571373 208 4 6009 29 010-64285217 0755-82775695 010-64285805