2021年全球移动经济报告（英文版）.pdf

Copyright 2021 GSM Association The Mobile Economy 2021GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topics. The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with almost 400 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMAContents Executive summary 2 The mobile market in numbers 10 1.1 Subscriber growth continues everywhere, but at varying speeds 11 1.2 4G nears peak as 5G adoption accelerates 12 1.3 Consumers go digital 15 1.4 Covid-19 weighs on financials, but recovery will be swift 19 Key trends shaping the mobile industry 21 2.1 5G: commercialisation gathers pace 22 2.2 The telco of the future: operators ramp up eSIM service rollout 29 2.3 IoT: digital transformation of the enterprise accelerates 32 Mobile contributing to economic growth and addressing social challenges 37 3.1 Mobiles contribution to economic growth 38 3.2 Mobile enhancing digital and financial inclusion 42 3.3 Mobile delivering social impact 49 Policies for shaping the post-pandemic digital economy 55 4.1 Accelerating investment and innovation 56 4.2 Effective spectrum policy meeting future connectivity demand 60 1 2 3 4The Mobile Economy 2021 Executive summary 2 Executive summary Covid-19 emphasises the importance of connectivity to societys wellbeing The Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the health and livelihoods of individuals and communities around the world. In these trying times, connectivity has emerged as a lifeline for society by enabling many social and economic activities to continue amid unprecedented social and travel restrictions, supporting new ways for enterprises to operate safely and facilitating effective response measures from government and other stakeholders. Mobile has been particularly instrumental during this period, keeping people connected and underpinning new services in response to the pandemic. Around the world, the exceptional scale and utility of mobile networks and services have: enabled people to work and learn remotely, stay in touch with loved ones, and perform many other everyday activities online supported innovative health solutions, such as remote patient monitoring and contact tracing, to control the spread of the virus provided a platform for people to access digital financial services, given efforts to reduce the reliance on cash facilitated the safe and efficient distribution of social welfare to vulnerable people generated valuable insights on mobility patterns from anonymised and aggregated mobile big data to inform government response measures at various stages of the pandemic. As the world emerges from the pandemic, connectivity will be crucial to helping economies recover and become more resilient to future shocks. This will come in the form of timely access to life-saving information and services for otherwise excluded populations, enhanced productivity and efficiency through 5G- and IoT-enabled digital transformation of industries, and new opportunities and market access for people and enterprises. With the digital economy set to be at the heart of a post-Covid-19 world, the urgency to bring unconnected communities online has never been greaterThe Mobile Economy 2021 Executive summary 3 5G momentum builds, but 4G still has room to grow The launch of commercial 5G services in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa over the last year means that the technology is now available in every region of the world. The pandemic has had little impact on 5G momentum; in some instances, it has even resulted in operators speeding up their network rollouts, with governments and operators looking to boost capacity at a time of increased demand. By the end of 2025, 5G will account for just over a fifth of total mobile connections and more than two in five people around the world will live within reach of a 5G network. In leading 5G markets, such as China, South Korea and the US, 4G has peaked and, in some cases, begun to decline. In many other countries, particularly in developing regions, 4G still has significant headroom for growth. Much of the growth in 4G will come from existing 4G infrastructure, as 5G will account for 80% of total capex over the next five years. Globally, 4G adoption will peak at just under 60% by 2023 as 5G begins to gain traction in new markets. Subscriber growth is slowing, but mobiles contribution to the global economy remains significant By the end of 2020, 5.2 billion people subscribed to mobile services, representing 67% of the global population. Adding new subscribers is increasingly difficult, as markets are becoming saturated and the economics of reaching rural populations are becoming more difficult to justify in a challenging financial climate for mobile operators. That said, there will be nearly half a billion new subscribers by 2025, taking the total number of subscribers to 5.7 billion (70% of the global population). Large under-penetrated markets in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will account for the majority of new subscribers. In 2020, mobile technologies and services generated $4.4 trillion of economic value added (5.1% of GDP) globally. This figure will grow by $480 billion by 2025 to nearly $5 trillion as countries increasingly benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by the increased take-up of mobile services. 5G is expected to benefit all economic sectors of the global economy during this period, with services and manufacturing seeing the most impactThe Mobile Economy 2021 Executive summary 4 The mobile industry continues to lead in efforts to tackle climate issues In April 2021, the mobile sector was credited by the United Nations (UN) for achieving a critical breakthrough towards its mission of combatting climate change. Being the first major sector to achieve the rigorous criteria set by the UNs Race to Zero campaign demonstrates the commitment and leadership of mobile operators in the push to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This comes at a time when political and economic leaders are giving renewed impetus to delivering a zero-carbon world. Today, 50% of operators by connections and 65% by revenue have committed to science-based targets (SBTs) on the reduction of carbon emissionsThe Mobile Economy 2021 Executive summary 5 Policies to shape the post-pandemic digital economy Mobile technology will play a key role as governments look to reinvigorate their economies and build a better, more inclusive society. Now is the right moment for governments to reassess the business and regulatory environment for mobile services in order to accelerate investment and innovation. To realise this, governments need to: direct stimulus funds towards digital development support financial sustainability of the mobile sector remove barriers to network deployment ensure fair competition harmonise EMF limits establish balanced policies for personal data. Further, positive decisions that help drive the availability of spectrum are crucial for governments and regulators that want to realise high-performance networks and services, particularly for 5G. Successful 5G networks and services depend on a significant amount of new harmonised mobile spectrum. Initially, regulators should aim to make available 80100 MHz of contiguous spectrum per operator in prime 5G mid-bands (e.g. 3.5 GHz) and around 800 MHz per operator in high bands (mmWave spectrum). Lower bands (600 and 700 MHz) are also required to provide wide-area capacity and ensure that 5G reaches everyone. Beyond spectrum availability, the cost of spectrum also has a major impact. Governments and regulators should assign 5G spectrum to support their digital connectivity goals rather than as a means of maximising state revenues. Effective spectrum pricing policies are vital to support better quality and more affordable 5G services. High reserve prices, artificially limited spectrum supply (including set-asides) and poor auction design can all have a negative impact (i.e. slower mobile broadband and supressed network investmentsG) Tv 5 5 5 PG) Tv 5 5 5 PExecutive summary 8 TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 81% 82% 81% 69% 2020 2025 19% 39% 42% 5% 16% 65% 14% CIS TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 83% 87% 86% 78% 2020 2025 10% 20% 69% 1% 5% 59% 35% 1% Europe TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 89% 85% 83% 73% 2020 2025 4% 2% 82% 52% 48% 12% Greater China TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 83% 62% 58% 68% 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2020 2025 23% 20% 56% 6% 11% 71% 12% 1% Asia Pacific 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 Note: All data for Asia Pacific in this report excludes China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan unless otherwise statedExecutive summary 9 TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 81% 73% 69% 72% 2020 2025 12% 33% 55% 4% 18% 68% 10% TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 80% 68% 65% 66% 2020 2025 34% 37% 29% 11% 33% 48% 8% TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 85% 85% 84% 82% 2020 2025 2% 10% 85% 1% 4% 45% 51% 3% TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 64% 50% 46% 48% 2020 2025 36% 52% 12% 11% 58% 28% 3% Sub-Saharan Africa North America MENA Latin America 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 2025 2020 * Percentage of total mobile connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) Note: Totals may not add up due to roundingThe Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 10 The mobile market in numbers 01The Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 11 1.1 Subscriber growth continues everywhere, but at varying speeds Figure 1 Key milestones over the next five years Source: GSMA Intelligence 8.5 billion mobile connections worldwide 6 billion smartphone connections worldwide Smartphone adoption accounts for 80% of total connections 4G connections peak at 5.1 billion SUBSCRIBERS MOBILE INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS 5G CONNECTIONS CONNECTIONS MOBILE BROADBAND (MBB) 4G CONNECTIONS SMARTPHONE CONNECTIONS 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Two thirds of the global population subscribe to mobile services 5.5 billion unique mobile subscribers Mobile adoption reaches 70% Mobile internet adoption reaches 55% 5 billion mobile internet users globally 500 million 5G connections worldwide 1 billion 5G connections worldwide 5G surpasses 20% of total connections 7 billion MBB connections worldwide MBB accounts for 95% of mobile connectionsThe Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 12 Figure 2 There will be nearly half a billion new subscribers by 2025; nearly two thirds will be from Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa New mobile subscribers (million) Source: GSMA Intelligence 1.2 4G nears peak as 5G adoption accelerates Figure 3 Nearly three in five connections are based on 4G; the momentum behind 5G is growing Percentage of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) Source: GSMA Intelligence 5,198 5,679 188 120 54 47 43 15 8 6 Total subscribers in 2025 Total subscribers in 2020 CIS Europe North America Latin America Greater China MENA Sub- Saharan Africa Asia Pacific 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17% 21% 5% 57% 5G 4G 3G 2GThe Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 13 Figure 4 5G is now available in every region, making it a truly global technology Source: GSMA Intelligence Live commercial 5G network Planned commercial 5G network Note: Data correct to June 2021The Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 14 32m 17m 202m 236m 42m 828m 71m 219m 54m 164m Developed Asia Pacific* North America Greater China Europe GCC Arab States CIS Latin America Rest of MENA Rest of Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa 53% 51% 48% 35% 21% 14% 10% 7% 5% 3% Global average 21% *Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea Figure 5 5G commercialisation at a glance: network investment and an expanding device ecosystem are helping to drive adoption globally Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 6 China alone will account for nearly half of total 5G connections by 2025, while adoption will be highest in developed Asia Pacific and North America 5G adoption in 2025 (percentage of connections) Source: GSMA Intelligence 5G connections in 2025 157 commercial networks, including 55 FWA networks, in 62 markets around the world. 600+ 5G devices announced, including 400+ devices that are now commercially available. In six markets Hong Kong, Kuwait, Qatar, South Korea, Switzerland and the US 5G covers 80% or more of the population. 234 million connections, representing 4% of total mobile connections. 15% of the global population. Networks Devices Adoption Coverage Note: Data correct to March 2021The Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 15 Figure 7 Another 1 billion people will be using mobile internet by 2025; much of this growth will come from emerging digital markets Mobile internet users (percentage of population) Source: GSMA Intelligence 1.3 Consumers go digital 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 4 billion people World Europe North America CIS Greater China Latin America Asia Pacific MENA Sub- Saharan Africa 2020 2025 5 billion people Advanced digital markets Emerging digital marketsThe Mobile Economy 2021 The mobile market in numbers 16 The smartphone industry adapts to a transformed market landscape Before Covid-19, the world was in the midst of a prolonged period of economic growth, with global smartphone sales holding relatively steady for several years. However, the pandemic has led to supply-chain disruptions and a sharp drop in consumer demand due to economic uncertainty. This could have profound implications for the smartphone in