2018年俄罗斯和独立国家联合体（CIS）移动经济报告.pdf

Copyright 2018 GSM Association Russia 5G launches on the horizon Led by the move to 4G, the CIS region is continuing to see a rapid shift to mobile broadband. 4G as a proportion of the connections base tripled over a two-year period to reach 16% at the end of 2017, largely driven by Russia, which was one of the first countries in the region to launch 4G in 2012. 4G will overtake 2G as a proportion of connections in early 2020, will become the leading mobile technology in 2021, and will account for over half and then two- thirds of total connections by 2022 and 2025 respectively. The region will be a fast follower in terms of 5G, with network launches expected in Russia from around the end of 2020. Rollout will be relatively rapid, covering more than 80% of the Russian population by 2025; by then, there will be 48 million 5G connections across the country (accounting for 19% of total connections). The initial focus in Russia is likely to be on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) to add capacity and higher speeds for mobile internet access. Other countries in the region expected to launch 5G services by 2025 include Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia and Uzbekistan. Opportunities sought to boost muted mobile revenue outlook Despite ongoing competitive pressures, relatively low smartphone adoption and relatively low pricing, service revenue trends have been improving in recent quarters, with revenues growing in the low single digits (largely below the level of inflation). Beyond 2019, growth in real terms is forecast to remain subdued at a rate of less than 1%. Rapid growth in smartphone adoption over the coming years (reaching around 80% of connections by 2025, up from less than 60% now) will fuel an explosion in data traffic. Any upside to existing revenue forecasts will therefore depend on mobile operators more effectively monetising this data growth and developing new revenue streams. The Internet of Things (IoT) is an area where mobile operators can grow their business beyond traditional communications. The number of IoT connections in the CIS region will triple over the next few years, reaching 660 million by 2025. While consumer IoT accounts for the majority of IoT connections (68% in 2017), the biggest increase is expected in industrial IoT; it will reach 48% of total IoT connections by 2025. This will be driven by increased interest in smart cities and smart utilities. IoT revenue meanwhile will reach almost $26 billion by 2025 (up from $5 billion in 2017), driven by applications, platforms and services the largest source of revenue growing from 53% of total IoT revenue in 2017 to 62% in 2025. Other areas of opportunity for mobile operators in the CIS region include e-commerce, blockchain and investments in the startup ecosystem. Policy: fostering development of the digital economy The implementation of 5G networks should be considered by regulators as not just a new technical advancement for the telecoms industry, but as a condition for delivering the digital economy and to drive the transformation of industries. With such a mindset, the regulation of the mobile industry should shift from controlling and supervising the industry to fostering its development. In the CIS region, there are four key areas where policy and regulation could be used to spur 5G rollout: the timely availability of harmonised spectrum at a suitable price; new approaches to supervise network development; updates to network architecture regulation; and the introduction of legislation covering network neutrality and data collection. Executive Summary 3 The Mobile Economy Russia not only is it the largest country but it is also the one with the most developed mobile market. The three largest markets, Russia, the Ukraine and Uzbekistan, together account for 80% of the regions total subscriber base. Subscriber penetration rates range from 60% in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to 89% in Russia. Of the limited subscriber growth to 2025, almost half will come from Uzbekistan, a country that is the third most populous but one of the least penetrated in the region. Subscriber penetration (of population) 44% 52% 84% 86% 85% 88% 62% 68% 67% 74% 80% 82% 67% 73% Europe Northern America CIS Latin America Asia Pacific MENA Sub-Saharan Africa 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2025 8 Industry overview The Mobile Economy Russia the country saw some of the regions first 4G network launches in 2012. In 2015, Beeline announced that it was stopping all new 3G investment in favour of further 4G expansion. 4G coverage and network quality remain key competitive factors in the Russian market, with all four of the main operators launching LTE-Advanced networks in recent years. 4G networks will account for just over a fifth of connections at the end of 2018, a figure that will surpass half by early 2022. 1.2 4G adoption surging across the region 3G 2G 4G 5G 66% 29% 5% 48% 36% 16% 40% 37% 23% 57% 34% 9% 31% 38% 30% 18% 68% 12% 25% 64% 9% 9% 37% 52% 15% 39% 45% 32% 58% 5% 23% 39% 38% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 1% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Percentage of connections 10 Industry overview The Mobile Economy Russia fixed wireless access (FWA); and massive IoT deployments and emerging enterprise use cases. The initial focus in Russia is likely to be on eMBB, with fixed broadband access already a fairly mature and competitive market in Russia, while IoT and enterprise solutions will take time to develop. In practice this means that initial 5G deployments from 2020 onwards will focus on urban areas and existing hotspots, with 5G primarily an offload solution to ease network congestion and offer higher network speeds. 1.3 5G launches in sight Russia will lead in 5G, but critical mass some way off Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 5 12 4 23 38 48 81% 76% 66% 54% 35% 22% 1 50 40 30 20 10 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5G coverage (% population) 5G connections (million) 12 Industry overview The Mobile Economy Russia & CIS 2018