2019年俄罗斯与独联体移动经济报告.pdf

Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy Russia networks in the regions other 10 markets will be live by 2025. The CIS will be home to around 54 million 5G connections by 2025, representing an adoption rate of 13%. Between 2019 and 2025, mobile revenue in the CIS is forecast to remain largely stable. However, market-level analysis paints a more nuanced picture. In certain countries, we expect greater smartphone adoption, 4G upgrades and growing data usage to deliver some revenue uplift. In others, factors such as plateauing subscriber penetration and acute competition could contribute to negative revenue growth, possibly pressing the case for structural change. Over the same period, operators are forecast to invest $39 billion in capex, of which more than 70% will be 5G-specific. Delivering 5G connectivity will increase capital intensity, stretching operators financial resources. Executive Summary 1. We use the term CIS in this report to refer to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia. 2. Total unique users who have subscribed to mobile services at the end of the period, excluding machine-to-machine (M2M). Subscribers differ from connections such that a unique user can have multiple connections. 3. Excluding licensed cellular IoT The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 2Mobiles significant contribution to jobs and the economy In 2018, mobile technologies and services generated 4.7% of GDP in the CIS, a contribution of $101 billion of economic value added. In the period to 2023, this figure will increase to $122 billion (5.1% of GDP). The mobile ecosystem supported 620,000 jobs in the CIS in 2018, either through direct employment or indirectly through activity in the wider economy. Mobile also contributes to the funding of the public sector, raising $12 billion in 2018 mainly via general taxation. 5G technologies are expected to contribute $34 billion to the CIS economy over the next 15 years, impacting key sectors such as manufacturing, utilities and construction. 5G mobile networks offer the potential to underpin a range of solutions for enterprises, in addition to serving the consumer market. However, uncertainty around spectrum access and returns on investment can be significant barriers to releasing value into the digital economy. Policymakers should consider the rollout of 5G a vehicle for driving socioeconomic growth and the transformation of traditional industries. The regulatory framework should foster the mobile industrys development within an environment that is conducive to investment. Launches of 5G networks in other markets indicate that a key factor behind their successful deployment and operation is the creation of a comprehensive national 5G development plan. Policies to support the regions burgeoning digital economy The Internet of Things (IoT) is an area where mobile operators can grow their business beyond traditional communications. Industrial IoT connections in the CIS will see strong growth out to 2025, driven by increased interest in smart cities and smart utilities. With IoT revenue set to reach $26 billion in 2025, operators are implementing strategies designed to capture opportunities at the applications, platforms and services layer. Further, operators are seeking to invest or formalise partnerships in the e-commerce market, particularly as smartphone and mobile broadband adoption rates grow. The industry is also exploring potential applications of, and devising solutions based on, artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies, and injecting greater funds in the start-up ecosystem to protect itself from disruption and diversify revenues. Regional innovation underpinned by mobile connectivity The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 3 NTATONAT 3 5 AG 5 35, r j J py r yppr y h y U q rr 35 NTATONAT 5 AG 5 A p 7 7 5 5 G * L rT 5G * 5 5 5 $ $ ry r GD 3 GD $3. $. 5 Trv Oprrrv v $3. 5 6 5 rph p NTATONAT 3 5 AG 5 35, r j J py r yppr y h y U q rr 35 NTATONAT 5 AG 5 A p 7 7 5 5 G * L rT 5G * 5 5 5 $ $ ry r GD 3 GD $3. $. 5 Trv Oprrrv v $3. 5 6 5 rph p The CIS region The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 65G 74% 67% 2018 2018 2025 2025 60% 45% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX* Uzbekistan 4G 2G 2G 3G 2025 46% 41% 13% 36% 6% 2% 56% 2018 5G 4G 3G 2025 49% 31% 20% 59% 29% 12% 2018 73% 73% 2018 2018 2025 2025 69% 54% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX* Kazakhstan The CIS region: subscriber and technology trends for key markets Russia 4G 5G TECHNOLOGY MIX* 79% 91% 2018 2018 2025 2025 90% 62% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION 2G 3G 2025 2018 43% 31% 26% 75% 6% 19% Ukraine 82% 89% 2018 2018 2025 2025 88% 60% SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX* 4G 2G 3G 2025 52% 11% 37% 61% 36% 2% 2018 *Percentage of connections The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 701 The mobile market in numbers The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 8Unique subscribers will reach 244 million by 2025, though this represents only a marginal increase in market penetration Figure 1 Source: GSMA Intelligence 1.1 One of the most highly penetrated regions in the world, dominated by Russia Millions 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Russia Other CIS markets Subscriber penetration (%) 68% 81% 83% The CIS is a diverse geography, with headline numbers masking markets at different stages of development Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 2 Subscriber penetration (%) Unique mobile subscribers (millions) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Armenia Georgia Moldova Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Ukraine Russia 65% 68% 74% 60% 64% 62% 64% 79% 69% 60% 88% 90% The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 9A significant percentage of net subscriber growth between 2018 and 2025 will come from Uzbekistan, a populous but relatively underpenetrated country Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 3 Millions Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Others Total There were 420 million SIM connections in the CIS at year-end 2018, 4equivalent to a penetration rate of 145%. The number of connections will reach 431 million in 2025, nudging penetration up by a small amount. Levels of multi-SIM ownership are well above the global average, reflecting strong competition in a largely prepaid market, where unlocked handsets are primarily sourced from independent outlets, with dual-SIM phones particularly common in Russia. 4. Excluding licensed cellular IoT 8.7 3.8 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.4 The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 10At the end of 2018, 4G accounted for less than a quarter of the regions connections base, compared to 50% in Europe. However, operator investments are now bearing fruit as the regions shift to mobile broadband services accelerates, marked by the total number of 4G connections topping 100 million by year-end 2018. Russia has been the key driver of the migration to 4G, seeing some of the regions first 4G network launches in 2012. The rollout of base stations, spectrum refarming and a greater focus on rural areas expanded 4G coverage to 85% by the end of 2018. 4G network availability and performance remain key competitive dimensions in the Russian market, with the four main operators all launching LTE-Advanced networks in recent years. 4G connections are due to reach 186 million in the country by 2025, over three quarters of total connections. 1.2 Later than many global leaders, 4G will soon become the CISs leading mobile technology Following 3Gs peak, 4G is set to take the lead in 2021, reaching 290 million connections by 2025 Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 4 Percentage of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) 5G 2G 4G 3G 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 68% 18% 13% 2% 3G peaks 4G leads The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 11The initial focus of 5G in the CIS is likely to be on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) to add capacity in hotspot areas and to offer higher network throughput; 58% of Russian consumers expect 5G to deliver an improvement in data speeds, which operators may use as a marketing differentiator against 4G. 5With fibre broadband access already a fairly mature market in the likes of Belarus, 65G-based fixed wireless services may find opportunities limited in the short run. Although IoT and enterprise solutions (such as for smart cities, autonomous vehicles and public security systems) are being explored, they will take time to develop. The CIS region will not be at the forefront of 5Gs development; certain markets are set to be fast followers Figure 5 1.3 The first 5G launches are on the horizon, though take-up will not grow rapidly Source: GSMA Intelligence 5. GSMA Intelligence Consumer Survey 2018 6. FTTH Council Europe Panorama, IDATE, 2019 Belarus Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Moldova Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5G launches The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 12Operators are preparing for the 5G era Russian operator Tele2 has launched a 5G pilot zone in central Moscow in the 28 GHz band in non-standalone (NSA) mode. Though the Ministry of Communications has rejected a series of 3.4-3.8 GHz trial applications, it is expected to assign 4.4-4.99 GHz and millimetre wave (mmWave) spectrum to test 5G later in 2019. A number of 5G test zones have now been opened in Belarus, allowing firms to test innovative applications of the technology. Meanwhile, in September 2019 a working group comprising operators and government agencies will present its provisional framework for the deployment of 5G across the country. Azerbaijani operator Azercell has selected Ericsson to modernise its radio access network (RAN) to be 5G-ready over a two-year programme, which will include the supply of services and multi- standard radio equipment nationwide. The three largest cities in Kazakhstan Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), Almaty and Shymkent will be covered with 5G “in the near future”, according to Kazakhtelecom. The operators three-phase pilot programme is scheduled for the 2019-2021 period and will test 5G use cases, including fixed wireless, eMBB and M2M communications. With the majority of launches a few years away, critical mass for 5G in the CIS is still some way off Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 6 Millions 13% 42% Connections Adoption (%) Population coverage (%) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 13