21世纪20年代改变世界的十大趋势.pdf

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Refer to important disclosures on page 54 to 56. 12047306 Thematic Investing Transforming World: The 2020s Thematic Investing 11 November 2019 The Decade of Inflection: reaching boiling point We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to t he world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change. At the same time, 3bn more people will be connected online and global data knowledge will be 32x greater than today. The social, political and economic responses to these challenges, all heading to a boiling point this decade, will overhaul traditional paradigms. We outline BofAML Transforming Worlds top 10 themes to help investors navigate this decade ahead. 10 Themes for the Next 10 Years 1) Peak Globalization: the end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world. Winners: local markets, real assets; Losers: global markets. 2) Recession: record numbers of FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary. Winners: inflation, real assets, infrastructure; Losers: growth, credit, deflation. 3) Quantitative Failure: monetary policy measures are proving less and less effective at boosting corporate and household “animal spirits”. Winners: Keynesianism, gold; Losers: financial assets, Monetarism. 4) Demographics: the number of grandparents will outnumber the worlds children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials. Winners: eCommerce, new consumer; Losers: bricks Losers: fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics. 6) Robots Losers: humans, global supply chains. 7) Splinternet: China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. Sovereign internets expand. Winners: emerging markets/the East; Losers: developed markets/the West. 8) Moral Capitalism: US$20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S Losers: business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms. 9) Smart Everything: 500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics but at the risk of the death of privacy. Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, big brother tech; Losers: privacy, offline. 10) Space: tourism and nanosatellites are the next frontier for an industry that could be worth cUS$1tn by 2030. Winners: aerospace Losers: legacy satellites. Equity Global Thematic Investing Haim Israel Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Israel) haim.israelbofa Michael Hartnett Chief Investment Strategist BofAS michael.hartnettbofa Felix Tran Equity Strategist MLI (UK) felix.tranbofa Tommy Ricketts Investment Strategist BofAS tommy.rickettsbofa Jared Woodard Investment Strategist BofAS jared.woodardbofa Pinaki Das Equity Strategist MLI (UK) pinaki.dasbofa Lauma Kalns-Timans Equity Strategist MLI (UK) lauma.kalns-timansbofa.co m Martyn Briggs Equity Strategist MLI (UK) martyn.briggsbofa 2 Thematic Investing | 11 November 2019 Contents New paradigms of the 2020s 3 Did you know in the next decade 4 The next decade: unlike any before it 5 10 themes for the next 10 years 7 1. Peak Globalization: the world is not flat 8 2. Recession: late cycle, bond bubble, inflation 12 3. Quantitative Failure: post QE decade 16 4. Demographics: the new consumer 20 5. Climate Change: make earth green again 27 6. Splinternet: the race for technological supremacy and sovereign internets 31 7. Moral Capitalism: stakeholders take over from shareholders 37 8. Robots and Automation: rise of the AI machines 42 9. Smart Everything: ubiquitous connectivity 6G may be needed12By 2029, AI could be as intelligent as humans13 By 2030, by 2030, global temperatures rise could breach the 1.5C target, as humans potentially exhaust the remaining carbon budget 14 By 2030, the number of ICE/diesel cars on the road could plateau15 By 2030, climate change could push more than 100 million people in developing countries below the poverty line16 By 2030, 80% of the middle class will be living outside the EU and US17Source: 1UN, 2WEF 2019, 3Ovum, 4Cybersecurity Venture, 5BofAML Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg, 6WEF 2018, 7BBC, 8Climate Change News, energuide.be, 9IDC 2017, 10World Obesity Fed 2017, WHO 2016, 11BofAML Global Research, 12IDC, Ericsson, BofAML Global Research, 13Ray Kurzweil, as defined by the Turing Test,14IPCC 2018, 15BNEF 2019, 16Global Commission on Adaptation, 17Roland Berger. Thematic Investing | 11 November 2019 5 The next decade: unlike any before it The worlds social, environmental, political and economic systems are facing escalating challenges, fuelled by megatrends, which are all likely to reach their boiling point in the next decade. We expect the 2020s will overhaul old paradigms, disrupt business models, and produce new trends that will shape our future. In the next 10 years, we should see increased automation, a global recession, unprecedented innovation, serious environmental challenges, the death of quantitative easing, tectonic shifts in demographics and the end of globalization. These are just some of the economic and thematic megatrends likely to shape the investment world to come. A decade of social and environmental megatrends Governments, companies and markets will face new social and environmental challenges unlike anything we have seen in the past. By the end of the decade, the worlds population will have increased by nearly 1 billion compared with today, putting a huge strain on the planets resources. A rapidly ageing population will challenge pension and healthcare systems and, by 2035 robotic automation could displace up to 50% of jobs. Without firm action, the world could reach an irreversible tipping point by the end of this decade as global temperatures increase and the planet exhausts its carbon budget. All these trends will impact social issues like inequality and immigration, as well as health and environmental problems like pandemics, pollution etc. new economic paradigm approaches We believe new paradigms will disrupt the status quo this decade. We are in the lowest interest rate environment in 5,000 years with monetary policy becoming less effective. The global economy is late cycle and fears of a recession are rising. We believe stakeholder value will be created in ways other than just profit maximization. These trends, among others, may lead to new economic theories like Modern Money Theory (MMT) and the death of globalization, and accelerate the geopolitical race for technological supremacy. and “techceleration” At the same time, we expect unprecedented strides in innovation and “techceleration”. By 2030, global data knowledge will likely be 32x greater than todays level. By the mid-2020s, we will interact with an online device every 18 seconds, vs. 6.5 minutes today; and there will likely be 500bn connectable devices globally by 2030. Techceleration will unlock economic value, but will challenge governments, privacy and society like never before (source: IBM). Exhibit 2: 2020 vs. 2030 Source: BofAML Global Research, UN, Internet World Stats, Cybersecurity Ventures, Cisco, ITU 2015, Kharas, Brookings Institution, Oxford Economics, BNEF 2019 *variable renewables 6 Thematic Investing | 11 November 2019 The 2020s is the decade of “peak” Most strikingly, we see the 2020s as a ground-breaking “peak decade” that will see many themes reach their inflection points, and business-as-usual investing will be disrupted. Examples include: Peak Globalization: the first time in decades that the unrestricted global flow of people, goods, and capital is no longer guaranteed. Peak Inequality: the first time that profit maximization is no longer the sole objective for Wall St and shareholders, with the rise of moral capitalism and the wider importance of stakeholders. Peak Youth: the first time that there are more seniors than children in the global population. Peak Oil: the first time that global oil demand plateaus as we transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy and electric vehicles (EV). Peak Cars: the first time that the total fleet number of diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on the road declines. Peak Stuff: the first time that conspicuous consumption ends in developed markets as we shift away from ownership to the sharing/circular economy. Exhibit 3: Peak Globalization Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Data, Bloomberg, USDA, Savills, Shiller, ONS, Spaenjers, Historic Auto Group. Note: Real Assets (Commodities, Real Estate, Collectibles), v s. Financials Assets (Large cap stocks, long-term Govt bonds). Exhibit 4: Peak Youth Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Research, UN Exhibit 5: Peak Oil Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Research, IEA Chart 1: Peak Cars Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Research BNEF / ICE = internal combustion engine; BEV = electric vehicle 0.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.0025 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20Real Assets vs. Financial Assets (relative price)Great DepressionNew DealWWIIWar on InflationGATT/ Bretton Woods 9/11GFCEnd of Bretton Woods NAFTAFall of Berlin WallWar on PovertyChina WTOPeak Globalization0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050%ofglobal populationmixunder 5 age 65+0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040global vehicles(bn)ICE BEVThematic Investing | 11 November 2019 7 10 themes for the next 10 years In this report, we highlight BofAML Global Researchs top 10 themes over the next 10 years to help investors navigate the decade ahead in a Transforming World. Exhibit 6: What is next for the decade ahead? Source: BofAML Global Research 8ThematicInvesting| 11 November20191. Peak Globalization: the world is not flat Summary: Unrestricted global flows of people, goods, and capital are no longer guaranteed, creating opportunities for smaller firms, local markets, and unloved real assets. Exhibit 7: Real assets at all-time lows vs. financial assets Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Data, Bloomberg, USDA, Savills, Shiller, ONS, Spaenjers, Historic Auto Group. Note: Real Assets (Commodities, Real Estate, Collectibles), v s. Financials Assets (Large cap stocks, long-term Govt bonds). Exhibit 8: World Trade Uncertainty Source: International Monetary Fund, Knoema. *Higher index score denotes higher trade uncertainty based on country reports Exhibit 9: Themes, Trends and Strategy for Peak Globalization Source: BofAML Global Research 0.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.0025 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20Real Assets vs. Financial Assets (relative price)Great DepressionNew DealWWIIWar on InflationGATT/ Bretton Woods 9/11GFCEnd of Bretton Woods NAFTAFall of Berlin WallWar on PovertyChina WTOPeak GlobalizationThematic Investing | 11 November 2019 9 Michael Hartnett BofAS michael.hartnettbofa Jared Woodard BofAS jared.woodardbofa Tommy Ricketts BofAS tommy.rickettsbofa The following three sections are contributed by the BofAML Global Investment Strategy Team. The world is not flat Proponents of globalization argue that high inflation in the 1970s was corrected by removing barriers to capital (deregulation, open capital accounts, fall of the Berlin Wall). Those same changes are now under threat as societies grapple with inequality and the heavy burden of social security, pensions and disinflation. The moment of “peak globalization” is likely behind us. The 1981-2016 era of unchecked flow of goods, people and capital is coming to an end, catalyzed by the widespread recognition that while globalization has meant lower consumer prices, it has also meant slower growth, precarious employment and social disruption. Signs the transition is already underway: People: after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, there were 15 physical barriers delineating international bordersnow there are 77. Today the US is the only large economy to grant unconditional birth right citizenship; other developed countries have skilled or points-based immigration systems. Goods: the US/China trade war is only the first among many signs that the global flow of goods is being renegotiated. Global trade growth in 2019 (+2.5%) is falling below global GDP growth (2.7%) for the second time since the financial crisis, a rare event outside of a recession (Exhibit 10). Bilateral trade battles (US/China, Japan/Korea, US/UK) are replacing multilateral frameworks (NAFTA, TPP), and some corporates are planning relocations of supply chains to regional allies. These tectonic shifts will likely lead to greater macroeconomic volatility. Capital: from 1960-80 the US averaged a small trade surplus (0.3% GDP), since then the average current account deficit has fallen to -2.5% of GDP. The obverse of any trade deficit is a capital account surplus, which means countries running large trade and (2) blocking the inflow of risk-averse savings is necessary for economic sustainability and trade stability. The financial “opening-up” of China and other EMs may prove too late as the risks from “hot money” flows prove greater than the benefits of access to foreign capital, while awareness rises in developed countries of problems caused by the global 0510152025301891190019091918192719361945195419631972198119901999200820172026US duties collected, % oftotal importsSmoot-Hawley 1930GATT1947WTO1995Trump*2018