现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望.pdf

现代煤化工“十三五”煤控 中期评估及后期展望COAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究China Coal Consumption Cap Plan and Policy Research Project201905中国煤炭加工利用协会 执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT系列报告 煤炭转型中的就业问题研究 中国煤炭行业“十三五”煤控 中期评估及后期展望“一带一路”重点区域（国家）环境影响评价体系研究报告“一带一路”可再生能源发展合作路径及其促进机制研究东盟国家可再生能源发展规划及重点案例国研究中国高耗能行业“一带一路”绿色产能合作发展报告“一带一路”电力综合资源规划研究中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国煤控项目“十三五”中期评估与后期展望研究报告中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2018中国大气污染防治回顾与展望报告 2018中国现代煤化工的煤控实施与产业发展煤炭行业继续深化供给侧结构性改革供给侧结构性改革背景下如何实现煤炭行业的公正转型气候变化风险及碳社会成本研究报告中国实现全球 1.5目标下的能源排放情景研究钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革推进水泥行业转型升级，实现绿色低碳发展深化供给侧改革，助推实现部门积极煤控目标建筑领域煤炭消费控制潜力及实施路径研究持续推进电力改革 提高可再生能源消纳执行报告中国对外援助综合管理机构改革研究中国能源气候管理机构改革研究中国散煤综合治理调研报告 2017钢铁行业煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究水泥行业煤控战略（计划）实施研究中国散煤治理调研报告 2017中国煤炭行业供给侧改革关键问题研究城市低效燃煤总量配额交易政策建议报告“去产能”政策对煤炭行业造成的就业影响研究“十三五”电力行业控煤政策研究煤化工产业煤炭消费量控制及其政策研究执行报告建言“十三五”中国煤炭消费总量控制规划研究报告行业部门煤炭消费总量控制研究煤炭消费总量控制目标的协同效应中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究( 煤控研究项目 )中国是世界煤炭生产和消费第一大国。以煤炭为主的能源结构支撑了中国经济的高速发展，但同时也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。为了应对气候变化、保护环境和减少空气污染，国际环保机构自然资源保护协会 (NRDC) 作为课题协调单位，与包括政府智库、科研院所和行业协会等 20 多家有影响力的机构合作，于 2013 年 10 月共同启动了“中国煤炭消费总量控制方案和政策研究”项目，为设定全国煤炭消费总量控制目标、实施路线图和行动计划提供政策建议和可操作措施，以帮助中国实现资源节约、环境保护、气候变化与经济可持续发展的多重目标。 了解更多详情，请登录： coalcap.nrdc/自然资源保护协会（ NRDC）是一家国际非营利非政府环保机构，拥有逾 140 万会员及支持者。自 1970 年成立以来，以环境律师、科学家及环保专家为主力的 NRDC 员工们一直为保护自然资源、公共健康及环境而进行不懈努力。 NRDC 在美国、中国、加拿大、墨西哥、智利、哥斯达黎加、欧盟、印度等国家及地区开展工作。请登录网站了解更多详情 nrdc。未完待续，请见封三现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望煤控研究项目系列报告现代煤化工“十三五”煤控 中期评估及后期展望COAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT THIRTEENTH FIVE-YEAR COAL CAP MID-TERM EVALUATION AND LATER-TERM OUTLOOK执行报告EXECUTIVE REPORT中国煤炭加工利用协会 2019年5月煤控研究项目4目录引言 6执行摘要 7Executive Summary 81. “十三五”中期产业发展现状 101.1 煤制油1.2 煤制天然气1.3 煤制烯烃1.4 煤制乙二醇1.5 煤制芳烃2. 规划前期实施情况 272.1 实施情况2.2 煤控下规划项目进展2.3 取得的成绩2.4 存在问题5现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望3. “十三五”后期煤控实施预测、调整及展望 363.1 行业发展面临的国内外形势3.2 项目煤控情况实施预计3.3 提高能效和降低能耗、水耗、煤耗的发展趋势3.4 污染治理约束形势3.5 规划项目及煤控调整研究3.6 “十三五”后期煤控展望4. 结论与政策建议 484.1 结论4.2 建议4.3“十三五”后期煤控建议致谢 54参考资料 55煤控研究项目6引言现代煤化工或新型煤化工，又称煤炭深加工，是指以煤为主要原料，生产油、气等清洁燃料和各种基础化工原材料的煤炭加工转化产业，主要包括煤制油、煤制天然气、低阶煤分质利用、煤制化学品、油煤共炼等模式，但不包括煤焦化、煤制合成氨、尿素、电石等传统煤化工产业。经过长期攻关，我国新型煤化工在科技装备、工程设计、建设运营和产业示范等多方面均取得显著进步，总体达到国际领先水平，为推广产业发展、保障国家能源安全奠定坚实基础。2017年初，国家能源局和发改委先后印发了煤炭深加工产业示范“十三五”规划（下称规划）和现代煤化工产业创新发展布局方案，进一步促进了产业科学规范发展。但是，我们应清醒看到产业发展中依然存在一些不平衡、不充分的因素：煤化工行业存在的制约“瓶颈”依然复杂，如技术短板、体制障碍、税负重压等；总体示范进展滞后于规划预期，部分示范项目“已核未建”、“核大建小”现象明显；面临形势依然严峻，国内外能源化工市场和新型煤化工技术与产业已发生深刻变化，机遇与挑战交织并存；特别是党的“十九大”以后，全行业进一步明确了习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的指导地位，但也面临诸多新任务和高质量发展要求。时值“十三五”中期，开展新型煤化工产业发展中期评估，进一步明确产业发展的指导思想和定位，及时总结技术研发和产业示范的经验教训，厘清制约产业发展的关键难题，动态调整规划示范项目，提出合理化政策建议和保障措施，对促进产业健康可持续发展、发挥国家能源战略技术储备和产能储备作用、控制煤炭消费总量具有现实和长远意义。有鉴于此，中国煤炭加工利用协会专题开展现代煤化工发展“十三五”中期评估工作，力求形成高质量研究成果报告，以期为国家政府、行业企业、研究机构等提供重要决策参考，共同促进新型煤化工产业科学可持续发展，协力构建“清洁低碳、安全高效”的能源体系。7现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望执行摘要能源是人类社会生存发展的重要物质基础，攸关国家战略安全和经济社会发展。2018年，全国能源消费总量46.4亿吨标准煤，比上年增长3.3%，煤炭消费量增长1.0%，占能源消费总量的59.0%。控制现代煤化工产业煤炭消费总量，既可以推动煤化工企业能源利用效率的提高，也是控制碳排放强度，积极应对气候变化的重要举措。现代煤化工发展到“十三五”中期，其关键技术实现整体突破，示范工程取得成功。产业规模快速增长，产业集聚初见雏形。装备国产化率大大提高，培养锻炼了一批人才队伍。我国现代煤化工产业仍处于示范升级阶段，不同程度存在环境、效率、排放方面的技术、经济和政策等问题。一是污水处理难度大。二是产业技术有待提升和优化规范。三是面临水资源、生态环境容量等约束，对生态环境、水资源、交通运输的承载力要求高。四是外部市场的不确定性。五是部分产品同质化和区域存在投资过度集中和布局不尽合理趋势。六是标准、规范还不完备，影响产业的健康发展。2017年，全国煤制油总产能921万吨/年，总产量322.7万吨，产能利用率35.0%，转化煤炭 1698.9 万吨；煤制天然气总产能 51.05 亿立方米 / 年，总产量 26.3亿立方米，产能利用率51.5%，转化煤炭710.1万吨；煤（甲醇）制烯烃产能达到1242万吨/年，产量约634.6万吨，产能利用率79.9%，转化煤炭4251.8万吨；煤制乙二醇产能达到270万吨/年，产量153.6万吨，产能利用率56.9%，转化煤炭768万吨。较“十三五”初期分别增长了214.3%、64.4%、69.6%、50.9%。2017 年，现代煤化工共转化煤炭7428.8万吨，约占全年煤炭消费总量的1.96%，较“十三五”初期增加耗煤量2890.8万吨。随着新建陆续投产并稳定运行，预计到2020年，现代煤化工耗煤总量将增加到1亿吨以上。“十三五”后期，我国现代煤化工应以国家能源战略技术储备和产能储备为重点，积极稳妥推进煤炭深加工产业升级示范。在水资源有保障、生态环境可承受的地区，开展煤制油、煤制天然气、低阶煤分质利用、煤制化学品、煤炭和劣质原油综合利用等升级示范，提升煤炭转化效率、经济效益和环保水平，推进煤炭由燃料向原料与燃料并举转变，进一步发挥煤炭的原料功能。在全面总结运转经验及确定各项技术指标、资源消耗指标、经济指标的基础上，综合考虑各种因素，进行下一步推广应用。通过气化技术的改进降低煤耗，提高能量转化效率；通过先进节水技术及污水处理技术的应用，降低水耗，尽可能提高生产用水的循环利用率。适应低碳经济发展的要求，考虑配套CCS/CCUS装置，减少温室气体排放量。布局应综合考虑原料煤供应、经济效益、环境保护等因素。在富煤缺水的西部地区发展此类项目，要以水资源和生态环境承载能力为基准，并考虑当地的生态环境，防止触碰生态红线，合理确定规模。煤控研究项目8Executive SummaryEnergy is vital for the survival and development of human society, and is crucial to national strategic security and social-economic development. In 2018, Chinas total energy consumption reached 4.64 billion tons of standard coal, up 3.3% from 2017. Total coal consumption increased 1.0% in 2018, accounting for 59.0% of total energy consumption. Controlling the total coal consumption in the modern coal chemical industry will not only promote efficiency improvements in the coal chemical industry, but also help control carbon emissions and actively respond to climate change.With regard to the development of the modern coal chemical industry in Chinas “13th Five-Year Plan” period thus far, key technologies have achieved overall breakthroughs and demonstration projects have achieved success. The industrial scale grows quickly, and industrial consolidation is beginning to form. Equipment localization rates are greatly improved, as is the initial formation of talent groups. Chinas modern coal chemical industry is still in the demonstration and upgrading stage. The whole industry faces different levels of technical, economic, and policy challenges related to the environment, efficiency, and emissions. First, sewage treatment remains a major challenge. Second, industrial technology needs to be improved while the related specifications should be optimized. Third, the pressure resulting from the development of the coal chemical industry on environmental resources, water resources and existing transportation capacity is extremely high. Fourth, there is still external market uncertainty. Fifth, some products cannot meet diversified needs and regions have overheated investments and unreasonable distribution trends. Sixth, a lack of standards and norms affects the healthy development of the industry.In 2017, Chinas total coal-to-oil production capacity was 9.21 million tons per year, with a total output of 3.227 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of 35.0%. A total of 16.99 million tons of coal were used in the coal-to-oil industry. The total coal-to-gas production capacity was 5.105 billion cubic meters per year, with a total output of 2.63 billion cubic meters and a capacity utilization rate of 51.5%. A total of 7.10 million tons of coal were used in the coal-to-gas industry. The total production capacity of coal-to-olefins reached 12.42 million tons per year, with 9现代煤化工“十三五”煤控中期评估及后期展望output of 6.35 million tons, and capacity utilization rate of 79.9%. A total of 42.51 million tons of coal were used in the coal-to-olefins industry. The production capacity of coal-to-ethylene glycol reached 2.7 million tons per year, with output of 1.536 million tons, and capacity utilization rate 56.9%. A total of 7.68 million tons of coal were used in the coal-to-ethylene glycol industry. Compared with the initial period of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, coal use in these industries has increased by 214.3%, 64.4%, 69.6% and 50.9%, respectively. In 2017, the modern coal chemical industry used 74.3 million tons of coal, accounting for 1.96 % of the total annual coal consumption of 3.796 billion tons, an increase of 28.908 million tons compared with the initial period of the 13th “Five-Year Plan”. With new capacities being put into operation and run smoothly, it is expected that total coal consumption in the modern coal chemical industry will increase by over 100 million tons by 2020.In the latter period of the 13th “Five-Year Plan”, Chinas modern coal chemical industry should focus on national energy strategic technology advancement and production capacity reserves, and should actively promote the update demonstrations of the coal processing industry. In areas where water resources are guaranteed and where it is environmentally sustainable, upgrade demonstrations such as coal-to-oil, coal-to-gas, low-rank coal quality-based utilization, coal-to-chemicals, comprehensive utilization of coal and inferior crude should be carried out so as to improve coal conversion efficiency and economic and environmental benefits, thereby promoting coal to be used as both fuel and raw material rather than fuel alone, and further undertake the raw material function of coal. Comprehensively summarizing operational experience and determining various technical indexes, including resource consumption indexes, and economic indexes, is essential for further developing the modern coal chemical industry. Through the improvement of gasification technology, the coal consumption can be reduced and the energy conversion efficiency can be improved; through the application of advanced water-saving technology and sewage treatment technology, water consumption can be reduced, and the recycling rate can be improved as much as possible. In order to meet the requirements of sustainable development, the report recommends to deploy CCS/CCUS technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Geographic layout should consider the supply of raw materials, economic benefits, environmental protection and other factors. The western region of China is rich in coal and short on water, so development of such projects should take the water resources and environmental constraints into account so as to avoid hitting an ecological red line. 1“十三五”中期产业 发展现状