2018航空航天与国防最高管理问题雷达（英文版）.pdf

December 2018 Flying close to the wind Aerospace 333fon/Fotolia 1 See “Urban air mobility The rise of a new mode of transportation,“ Roland Berger, November 2018.Think:Act A&D Top Management Issues Radar 2018 4 APPROACH THE SCOPE Our survey captured prevailing trends in the following three top-management issues, based on the given exemplary questions. The results of each are discussed in the next three sections. 1. T op priorities in 2018 What are the main topics on your companys agenda in 2018? 2. Market outlook For how long do you expect the current favorable market conditions in the civil aerospace sector to persist? Do you think that government spending on defense will increase in the coming years? Will spending on defense increase consistently? Do you expect the civil market for UAVs (personal mobility, flying taxis, delivery or rescue drones, etc.) to grow significantly in the future? 3. Change in aerospace ecosystem CONSOLIDATION AND COLLABORATION Do you expect further collaboration, alliances and/or M&A activities between tier-1 suppliers in the next 3-5 years? NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND INNOVATION How heavily will digitalization impact the aerospace & defense industry? CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE How do you see the impact of increased threats, such as from a US trade war with the European Union/its member states, on your business? IN ADDITION, WE ASKED WHICH SEGMENTS/COMPANIES WILL BE AFFECTED Which drivers are most likely to disrupt the aerospace value chain? Which parts of the industry will see the greatest effect? Will it be mostly positive or negative? THE SURVEY This is the tenth annual edition of the Aerospace & Defense Management Issues Radar. Our goal is to support executive-level thinking across the A&D industry. For our survey this year, we received responses from over 200 senior industry executives from almost 90 companies in 15 countries, including Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Leonardo, Rockwell Collins and Thales. Participants were drawn from OEMs, their tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers, as well as from various adjacent sectors such as manufacturing equipment suppliers, automation specialists, technical service providers, logistics providers and industry associations. Of the respondents, 70% work for companies with more than 1,000 employees, and 92% do business in Western Europe, 66% in North America and 61% in Asia, including China and India. A large proportion work for companies active in the commercial aircraft segment (85%) and the military aircraft segment (73%), as well as UAVs (43%).Think:Act A&D Top Management Issues Radar 2018 5 Additionally, the question of what production systems and supply chains should look like in 2025 features highly on respondents agendas as it will be the key source of future competitive advantage. 12 DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Digital transformation was voted the second highest priority, after only being introduced to our survey two years ago. Its clear why: OEMs, engine manufacturers and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) provid- ers have all launched new service offerings utilizing Big Data for predictive maintenance and condition monitoring. However, implementation uncertainties remain. For example, data ownership, privacy and pro- tection issues pose challenges which companies have to overcome. 3 NEW MARKET/NEW SEGMENT ENTRY With a third place in the ranking, new market/new segment entry has returned to the top priority list after last appearing in the survey in 2014/15. One of the key drivers behind its return is the industry con- solidation over the last year. This changes the value chain configuration of OEMs and tier-1s. With new acquisitions and the formation of joint ventures and strategic partnerships, companies are reviewing and rethinking their market positioning and product/ service offering. In addition, new technologies and applications such as electrical-propulsion aircraft and autonomous manned and unmanned transport con- cepts contribute to this trend. T op priorities in 2018 Our survey asked participants what the main topics and issues on their agendas were. Three topics stood out: 1 Manufacturing (and supply chain) 2 Digital transformation 3 New market/new segment entry 1 MANUFACTURING (AND SUPPLY CHAIN) For the fourth year in a row, the A&D sector remains predominantly focused on manufacturing (closely linked to supply chain, which finished fourth). It was voted as the overall top priority, with the state of the aerospace industry a key reason. The huge backlogs at civil aircraft OEMs will mean ramping up output to 70 or even 80 narrow-body aircraft per month in the 2020s. And as delivery slots are fully booked for several years, OEMs are continuously looking for further in- creases in output rates. Even at an envisioned rate of 70 narrow-body aircraft deliveries per month, the huge backlog of over 5,500 airplanes will take another 6.5 years to clear. A In addition, OEMs and tier-1s are monitoring the resilience of their supply chains to lower risk and guard against any possible interruptions. For example, delays in deliveries of CFM Internationals Leap-X engines for Boeing 737 MAX aircraft have resulted in disruptions to Boeings aircraft delivery plans. Thus, OEMs are keeping a close watch on their internal and external supply chains to ascertain if and when higher output rates are feasible, as well as assessing whether such rate increases would be sustainable. 1 See “Hope on the horizon: A study of the aerostructure tooling market,“ Roland Berger, September 2018. Think:Act A&D Top Management Issues Radar 2018 6 ations (e.g. managing ramp-up, reducing costs) but also the strategic need to systematically revamp the production system and supply chain, leveraging digital thinking and technology. This underlines the shift to- wards strategy we saw in 2017 and 2018 as executives reposition for the future. The flip side is that the industry seems to be uncer- tain as to how to balance strategy and operations. The sheer number of topics requiring consideration makes it difficult for managers to select the right ones, creat- ing a degree of concern that is compelling companies to work extensively on strategy and to take risks. While respondents are aware that action has to be taken, col- lectively there is a lack of certainty within the industry on how to prioritize the topics at hand. In summary, the priorities reveal that companies are struggling to walk the fine line between securing their operational performance in a highly competitive and dynamic market environment, and taking the nec- essary step back to project their business into the fu- ture and derive the required strategic plan. WHAT THIS MEANS Our survey shows that manufacturing is still at the forefront of A&D executives minds. It is the number one priority for tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers, and a close second to digital transformation for OEMs, making it top overall. This seems logical considering order books are at an all-time high, with a strong focus on increas- ing production rates to deliver the aircraft in these or- der books, while also transitioning to new aircraft types, as evidenced by the production ramp-up of Air- buss new A350 aircraft in the last three years, the in- crease in single-aisle production and the switch from A320 to A320neo and B737 to B737MAX. The prioritizing of manufacturing suggests that op- erations are currently paramount in the boardroom. But when combined with the other more strategic top- ics of digital transformation and new market/new seg- ment entry, the results actually show a balanced mix of strategic and operational topics ranking high on com- panies agendas. Indeed, manufacturing and supply chain are hybrid topics, as they not only focus on oper- Source: Roland Berger MANUFACTURING IS AGAIN HIGHEST RANKING Main topics on companies agenda A Program management Manufacturing Market strategy/ globalization Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Market strategy/ globalization Supply chain Manufacturing Supply chain Product strategy Digital transformation Digital transformation R&D efficiency Market strategy/ globalization Product strategy New market/new segment entry Supply chain Product strategy New market/new segment entry Supply chain Program management Supply chain Product strategy Geographic expansion External growth/ M&A and PMI Supply chain 2011 2012 2013 2014-15 2016 2017 2018 1 2 3 4Think:Act A&D Top Management Issues Radar 2018 7 Our survey probed market conditions in the aerospace and defense industries. Below we consider each sector in turn. AEROSPACE Our survey found that the overall market outlook in 2018 is significantly more optimistic than in 2017. Over half (53%) of the respondents believe that the current upbeat cycle will continue for at least 5 years, compared to 41% in the previous year. The percentage of respon- dents who believe that we are in a “supercycle,“ with in- creased order rates being well-managed by OEMs, has increased from 21% to 24% in the past year. In addition, the number of executives stating that the market has already entered a downward cycle dropped by 5% in the same period, underlining the positive outlook. B This optimism is hardly surprising when you look at recent order data. The backlog for commercial aircraft has been increasing at a steady rate over time, demon- strating a growing market with strong demand. It is cur- rently plateauing at an all-time high despite reduced inflow of new orders increasing high production rates. Airbus and Boeing had total net orders of 887 air- craft in the first nine months of 2018. Thats only about 40% of the full year net orders for 2017, when the two manufacturers racked up a total of 2,021. Wide-bodies largely held up demand, contributing 241 orders more than their total in the previous year. However, or- ders for narrow-bodies (B737 and A320 family) have been weaker. With the narrow-body order backlog now approaching 7-10 years, its understandable that air- lines are reluctant to order aircraft (and make related down-payments) for deliveries so far down the road. Despite the reduced inflow of new orders, our re- spondents are very optimistic given the current order backlog, high production rates and rumors of further rate increases (up to 70 to 80 single-aisle aircraft per month by the 2020s). C Over in Asia, however, things are beginning to hot up. Asian OEMs are planning several new and complex Market outlook Source: Roland Berger 1 Not a possible answer in 2016 Single-aisle Wide-body CSeries CIVIL AEROSPACE IS STILL PROMISING Aerospace & defense market outlook 2018 ORDERS ARE GOING DOWN Gross aircraft orders by type, 2017 and 2018 YTD B C 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep 2017 2018 Gradual rate rises will be well-managed by the OEMs in response to future changes in demand as the industry continues on a long-term supercycle The present cycle has some way to run (10-20% or more increase in volume terms), after which there will be a downturn in 5 years time We are near the top of the cycle (within 10% in volume terms) and a downturn will come in the next 3-5 years We have already entered a downward cycle 1 2,037 887 24% 29% 15% 32% 21% 20% 20% 39% 33% 36% 31% 73% 88% 11% 1% 27%