时尚还是潮流？为什么有些产品是昙花一现，而另一些则是持续的成功（英文版）.pdf

Executive InsightsThe dominant consumer product of the 2015 holiday season was the hoverboard. This fantastic, futuristic piece of the 21st century personal transportation meets consumer electronics meets extreme sports was all over the news. It was a must-have gift of the season. Six months later, hoverboards were off the radar, and sales had cratered. Robotic vacuum cleaners such as the iRobot Roomba, which some may equate with hoverboards, were emphatically not a dominant consumer product of that holiday season, or other recent holidays at least when it came to public attention. They were simply selling steadily and entering more homes, just as theyd been doing for years.To put it another way: Hoverboards were a fad. Robotic vacuum cleaners are a trend. To make smart decisions about investments, mergers, acquisitions and project development, its critical to know the difference.Every year, a handful of consumer products become runaway hits. They seem to come out of nowhere. Theyre hyped by traditional and social media. Demand surges, and retailers cant seem to keep them in stock. Revenues ramp up spectacularly.Fad or Trend? Why Some Products Are a Flash in the Pan and Others a Sustainable Success was written by Maria Steingoltz and Robert Haslehurst, Managing Directors in L.E.K. Consultings Consumer Products and Retail practice. For more information, contact retaillek. Sometimes, that success persists for a while for a year, two, three, perhaps even four. And then they fade, or vanish suddenly. Sometimes the companies that produced them vanish too. Or perhaps they survive but at dramatically lower levels of revenue, profitability and attention.The initial attention is so extreme that its easy to remember the products. Pet Rocks, Beanie Babies, the Atkins Diet, inline skates, paintball arenas the list goes on. Pokmon Go Fad or Trend? Why Some Products Are a Flash in the Pan and Others a Sustainable SuccessVolume XIX, Issue 10How to identify a fad in the makingThe framework helps you gather information. How to put it to work? Ask yourself these questions: Product: Does it solve a pressing consumer need? Will it hold a consumers attention in the long term? Consumer segment: How large is the potential consumer base? What type of spending power do they have? Are early adopters representative of the broader population? How satisfied are users with the product? Will the next wave of consumers be as satisfied? Hype: Is consumer interest legitimate? Or is it being driven to unnatural levels by celebrities or media? Are prices escalating rapidly or fluctuating sharply? Either might indicate unsustainable demand based on hype.might be the next on the list. These products help define their moment. Twenty years from now they might still be out there, selling quietly in a low-volume, steady state. Or they might simply be flashpoints for nostalgia. What they arent is a sustainable business success.For every one of these products, we can think of a contrasting one something that, even if it arrived in a spectacular fashion, went on to put down roots and achieve steady, profitable growth year after year. Lego, yoga and natural shampoos arrived in some cases dramatically, in some cases quietly, but in all cases they established an effective and consistently growing market. Their revenue stream is predictable and is likely to persist well into the future.The first set of products are fads. The second are trends. The distinction between them matters. But telling them apart isnt easy. Our examples make the differences seem obvious, and indeed they are after the fact. The challenge for investors or decision-makers is to spot potential fads when the product is still under development. Understanding and characterizing fads and distinguishing them from trends is crucial to investment strategy and revenue projection across industries, from technology to toys to consumer services.A field guide to fads and trendsHow to tell fads from trends? First, lets be strict about definitions. A fad is something for which enthusiasm is intense and widely shared, especially an enthusiasm that is short-lived and is not based on the objects qualities. It is typically characterized by a two-to-four-year revenue ramp, often accompanied by price inflation in secondary markets, followed by rapid decline once the fad “bubble” bursts. A trend is a general direction in which the market is developing or changing. Trends offer steady revenue growth they point the way toward attractive target markets, high returns and steady revenue growth. Theres nothing inherently wrong with fads. They can generate substantial revenue and ROI. Thats fine, as long as its what the business and the investors are expecting. The problem is one of Executive InsightsPage 2 L.E.K. Consulting / Executive Insights, Volume XIX, Issue 10Source; L.E.K. analysisINSIGHTSWORKnull1,855#103.7%#12USD (in millions) 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000$12,000EP Margin2006-15EP Ranking11,035#16.9%#210,764#25.6%#110,266#35.4%#35,190#412.3%#115,014#54.0%#43,427#63.9%#62,809#79.8%#52,375#82.1%N/A2,171#97.0%#7Asia Middle East Europe Latin America North America AfricaOceaniaIndicators of fads/fad riskExamples: Description: ProductIrrationalpurchasemotivationsLimitedproductadaptabilityProducts that are part of a trend solve a customer need, while fad products are often purchased based on irrational purchase criteria, including perceived scarcity, future resale value, etc.Product adaptability allows products to respond to market needs and desires, allowing them to maintain an attractive value proposition.Customer segmentNiche market appealFad products may initially appear to be applicable to a large population, but the product value is strong only for a small population subset.If early adopters are not representa-tive of the larger population (e.g., wealthier, more tech savvy), it may indicate that a product does not have sustained relevance.HypeDemandfluctuation/price changesHype bymedia andcelebritiesIndustries propelled by celebrity endorsement or media hype are often short-lived, as demand is not based on a fundamental need. Rapid adoption or price increases in primary or secondary markets may indicate demand based on hype or irrational criteria.Figure 1Indicators of fadssurprise investing in a fad while believing its a trend, then being unprepared for the sudden, sharp decline in sales. In Figure 1, we outline a systematic way to review your projects and investment targets in order to spot potential fads. There are three categories to review, and one or more factors in each.The framework isnt a plug-and-play formula. Not all factors will be equally important in each situation. Some may not apply at all a product could have certain attributes of a fad, such as celebrity-driven hype, and nevertheless become a trend. It is better to think of the elements of the framework as a set of issues to consider. The specifics will vary by category in the case of a beauty product, youll want to look at the role of celebrity endorsements in making it so popular; in the case of a toy, youll want to know whether its selling for high multiples on eBay or reseller sites, mainly for novelty. Youll probably want to step back, look at the overall picture and ask whether, all things considered, the product leans more toward fad or trend. In the end, the framework exists to help guide the hard work youll have to do observing the marketplace, talking with and listening to consumers, and watching their behaviors. The categories to consider, and the factors to watch, are: The product itself. Fad products are characterized by:oLimited utility. Products that are part of a trend solve a consumer need (such as for exercise clothing or robotic, “hands-free” housecleaning). Fad products like Pet Rocks and Beanie Babies were often purchased for irrational reasons perceived value, scarcity or future resale value, or to be part of an “in group.” oLimited product adaptability. Trend products are adaptable to market needs and desires. Exercise clothing Executive InsightsPage 3 L.E.K. Consulting / Executive Insights, Volume XIX, Issue 10 INSIGHTSWORKnullSource: L.E.K. analysisFigure 2 Fad vs. durable trend characteristicsFads are not the only reason that products fade. There can be other kinds of disruption. The stand-alone GPS market spiked, then faded not because it was overhyped, but because smartphone apps took over the market.Beanie Babies vs. Lego DescriptionIrrational purchase motivationsRational purchase motivationsBeanie Babies: belief that the product would be a collectors item; more valuable in the futureLego: build something using a childs imagination; a potentially educational activityLimited product adaptabilityHigh product adaptabilityBeanie Babies: could have been adaptable, but limited product licensing or effort to adapt product to be more usableLego: can be adapted and used with a wide variety of toys; Lego has licensed IP that links its products to popular franchises like Star Wars for additional sources of innovation and inspirationApplicable to market niche only Wide applicability within marketBeanie Babies: presumed appeal to children and adults, but adults interest faded as the hype wore off and the market was saturatedLego: initially targeted young boys but saw success expanding product offerings to target young girls and adult enthusiastsHigh degree of celebrity or media hypeLimited hypeBeanie Babies: hype and extreme price inflation on secondary markets, with eBay sales reaching as much as 1,000% of retail sale price for the “rarest” itemsLego: for the vast majority of products, Lego did not see value-based hype or the level of media coverage for Beanie BabiesRapid demand/price growthSteady demand/price growthBeanie Babies: rapid revenue ramp over 3-4 years post-launch, and then demand crashed as the market was saturatedLego: some volatility in revenue associated with product releases from licenses; overall Lego has grown sustainably with a 9.3% CAGR, from $1.2B in 1998 to $5.4B in 2015Fad Durable trendcan be adapted easily as new forms of exercise become popular. But how adaptable is a Pet Rock? The consumer segment. Look at the consumer base for warning signs.oNiche market product, unsustainable mass-market reach. A fad product is often a niche product that briefly has mass-market appeal or carries mass-market expectations that cant be met. Theres nothing wrong with a niche product some people will always want to play paintball or laser tag. But initial dramatic sales levels beyond the niche may signal a fad in the making a bubble that cant be sustained. Or expectations can be off target. Google Glass provided constant access to computing a major draw for a small group of technologists. But the media and others who expected it to become a mass-market product were sharply disappointed. What Google Glass had to offer was not of interest to anyone else, especially given the price and the availability of solutions such as the smartphone that met a similar consumer need. The hype. Immediately upon launch, marketplace reaction gives evidence that a product is a fad. Watch for:oHype by media and celebrities. Media hype and celebrity endorsement propel the demand. The medias Executive InsightsPage 4 L.E.K. Consulting / Executive Insights, Volume XIX, Issue 10 INSIGHTSWORKnullsummer 2016 obsession with Pokmon Go is a case in point media coverage drove rapid uptake, but daily user levels dropped sharply as consumers quickly lost interest. Celebrities like Madonna helped drive interest in the oxygen facial but only for a short time.oDemand fluctuation and sharp price changes. Hype drives demand (and therefore prices) to extreme levels. But neither demand nor pricing signals long-term interest in the product. Neither is sustainable. Compare and contrast these fads and trends to sharpen your recognition skillsThe test of any framework is how it works in the real world. How does it help us think about, and break down, real-world examples? Lets look at one case in point Beanie Babies vs. Lego (see Figure 2): Theyre sharply contrasted. Beanie Baby sales spiked, then plunged. It was a classic fad cycle hype, in this case secondary market price surges, led to overproduction, which burst the bubble. Adult collectors, who were a significant part of the market, fled. Lego is a highly adaptable toy that engages the imagination and can be used in a wide variety of projects. Adaptability is a hallmark of Legos corporate strategy as well one of the key growth drivers was the series of lucrative licensing deals that Lego developed with the Star Wars franchise, and Figure 3 Potential solutions to transform a fad into a trend or generate sustainable revenue from a fad product with limited staying powerProduct Irrational purchase motivationsIdentify key customer needs and clearly communicate to consumers how the product meets those needsMake products that are usable rather than decorative so the customers can interact with the product over a longer period.Allow licensing to turn products into a platform with a wide variety of related items and integrate old and new franchises, allowing users to interact with the brand from a variety of angles and keeping the brand fresh.Limited product adaptabilityCustomer segmentNiche market appealCreate opportunities for mass customization to broaden the appeal of a more niche-oriented productAllow licensing to create a product platform with a variety of products (e.g., toys and movies), which will broaden market appeal.For example, some customers prefer movies but will use toys if they like the movie, and some prefer toys but will watch movies if they like the toy; so having both allows a product to appeal to both customer segments.Hype Hype by media and celebritiesConsider how a rotating and varied list of celebrity endorsers for the same product will broaden appeal to a range of customer segments and demographics. For example, Burberry traditionally used celebrities and models with an aristocratic British look but added models such as Kate Moss and Cara Delevingne to advertisements to appeal to a younger segment with edgier, more fashion-forward products.Create a suite of services or products surrounding the initial release so that consumers benefit from repeat purchases. For example, with Pokmon cards, additional purchase of cards allows the user to complement cards already owned and build out “decks” to play against other players, as opposed to Beanie Babies, where additional purchases only build a collection.Demand fluctuation/price changesthen replicated with The Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter and Batman. These initiatives not only created sustainable growth by broadening the products appeal, but also led Lego to create its own intellectual property a vide