2021年中国营商环境白皮书.pdf

2021 White PaPer on the Business e nvironment in China 2021年中国营商环境白皮书 The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 华南美国商会 February 25, 2021 2021年2月25日 Guangzhou, Peoples Republic of China 中国 广州Review Committee 编审委员会 Dr. David Hon CEO, Dahon Technologies 韩德玮博士， 董事长， 大行车业 （深圳） 有限公司 Scott Liang President, Apex (Guangzhou) Tools 2013: US$ 14 million). I was delighted to see the 550 members and dignitaries attending our 2020 Hope Ball take time at the party to donate cash to the Guangzhou Women and Childrens Hospital. All the money, which was donated directly to the hospital foundation, is never touched by our Chamber and goes directly to pay for immediate lifesaving surgeries for poor and orphaned children. In the past ten years we have raised over 5,172,000 RMB in cash that literally saved the lives of 221 orphaned children who otherwise would not be alive today. We have also raised 12,945,811 RMB in in-kind donations which, together with investments we have introduced, have raised four impoverished villages and tens of thousands of poor villagers above the poverty line. The philanthropic program has been wildly successful. I always believe that charity brings hope for tomorrow and we can always do more. Economic shocks like the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 only arrive once every few generations, and they bring about permanent and far-reaching change. Measured by output, the world economy is well on the way to recovery from a slump the likes of which barely any of its 7.7 billion people have seen in their lifetimes. Vaccines should accelerate the rebound in 2021. But other legacies of COVID-19 will shape global growth for years to come. Some are already discernible. The takeover of factory and service jobs by robots will advance, while white-collar workers get to stay home more. Therell be more inequality between and within countries. Governments will play a larger role in the lives of citizens, spendingand owingmore money. Nevertheless, policy makers must move decisively. Although the world economy is already growing again following the 4.3% contraction of 2020, the pandemic caused a heavy toll of deaths and illness, plunged millions into poverty, and may depress economic activity and incomes for a prolonged period. To overcome the impacts of the pandemic and counter the investment headwind, there needs to be a major push to improve business environments, increase labor and product market flexibility, and strengthen transparency and governance. Chinas economy is expected to expand by 7.9% in 2021 following 2% growth last year. Excluding China, emerging market and developing economies are forecast to expand 3.4% in 2021 after a contraction of 5% in 2020. Among low income economies, activity is projected to increase 3.3% in 2021, after a contraction of 0.9% in 2020. According to the United Nations and the World Bank, the pandemic is expected to leave long lasting adverse effects on global activity with a likely slowdown in global growth stretching through the next decade, due to underinvestment, underemployment, and labor force declines in many advanced economies. The global economy could be heading for a decade of growth disappointments unless policy makers put in place comprehensive reforms to improve the fundamental drivers of equitable and sustainable economic growth. Policymakers need to continue to sustain the recovery, gradually shifting from income support to growth-enhancing policies. In the longer run, in emerging market and developing economies, policies to improve health and education services, digital infrastructure, climate resilience, and business and governance practices will help mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic, reduce poverty and advance shared prosperity, while in the context of reduced public spending and elevated debt, institutional reforms to spur organic growth are particularly important. According to the results of the AmCham South Chinas 2021 Special Report, our annual State of Business Study, the opportunities outweigh the challenges. As the first major economy to show a recovery, China has successfully navigated the extreme hardship brought by the COVID-19. AmCham South China members have withstood the impact to various degrees. While a combination of factors including the coronavirus pandemic severely impacted the global economy in 2020, only a slight decrease in reinvestment from profits in China was realized, with 17% of the studied companies having reduced their reinvestment quota in 2020 in China compared with 2019. Factors including huge market potential, preferential policies and uncertainties of pandemic in other countries, have whetted companies interest to increase investment in China or shift investment to China. Furthermore, a vast majority of companies still have expansion plans in China in the next three years. Nearly all the studied companies express their willingness to stay in China despite US-China trade friction. Compared to the previous year, more companies firmly believe that they will see further improvement in US-China relations in 2021. American business has obviously not given up on China. Our governments must get back to the table immediately for a new Phase II deal. As Henry Ford once said, what is good for business is good for America. An interesting finding of the 2021 Special Report is the direct connection between the reduced number of expatriate executives in China and the massive reduction in the number of very large planned reinvestments. While total dollar amount of budgeted reinvestments has held steady due to the increase in number of large, medium and small reinvestment projects (between 1 million and 250 million US dollars each), the number10 11 2021 White Paper on the Business Environment in China The American Chamber of Commerce in South China of very large foreign planned reinvestment projects involving 250 million US dollars or more each have reached the lowest levels in several years (a 4/5th reduction year on year for all foreign companies and nearly 3/4th for US companies). We predict that this will severely impact Chinas manufacturing output two to three years from now. The last time a similar situation happened was in 2016. Our 2017 study predicted the pre COVID-19 slowdown in Chinas economic growth in 2018 and 2019 (GDP growth dropped to 6.6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019). The worlds two largest economies have been locked in a bitter trade dispute since the beginning of the Trump presidency. The dispute has seen the US and China impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of one anothers goods. President Trump has long accused China of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft. In China, there is a perception that America is trying to curb its rise as a global economic power. Negotiations are ongoing but have proven difficult, but this remains necessary. Both sides signed a preliminary agreement widely known as the Phase I Deal in January of 2020. It has now been over a year and some of the thorniest issues remain unresolved. Now going into a new administration in the US, uncertainties around the trade conflict continue to hurt businesses and weigh heavily on the global economy. The Trump administration raised tariffs on a range of Chinese imports and implemented harsh sanctions against Chinese companies such as Huawei Technologies Co., citing national security, leading to a deterioration in relations. The relationship between China and the US has fallen to its lowest level since Beijing and Washington established formal diplomatic ties over 40 years ago, with the two countries clashing on a range of issues including trade and the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. But many business leaders expected the Biden administration to maintain a tough stance on China when it comes to access to hi-tech equipment and components. President Biden may have inherited the trade conflict with China that now involves over $700 billion in bilateral trade, but he owns it now. The tariffs have got to go, but Biden has already announced that he will not immediately cancel the trade agreement that Trump struck with China nor take steps to remove tariffs on Chinese exports. Biden said he would pursue policies targeting Chinas “abusive practices,” such as “stealing intellectual property, dumping products, illegal subsidies to corporations” and forcing “tech transfers” from US companies to Chinese counterparts. But he also stressed the need to develop a bipartisan consensus at home and focus government efforts on investments in research and development, infrastructure and education that would allow companies to compete better with Chinese rivals. Dont expect a new deal with China in the first 100 days of the new presidency. According to Reuters, Biden said, “I want to make sure were going to fight like hell by investing in America first.” He wants to talk with American allies before proceeding. “The best China strategy, I think, is one which gets every one of our or at least what used to be our allies on the same page.” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying responded to Bidens comments by reiterating a long-standing position that trade between the two countries should be mutually beneficial. She said, “Trade issues should be dealt with in the spirit of mutual respect and equal consultation.” We agree with the leaders from both countries, but governments do not run on a linear plane. Both sides must return to the table. Both sides want a strong trade deal and international business should not have to wait. Its time to get busy. Finally, after explaining how we believe the world sees Chinas economy, we make a single recommendation: continue moving forward, and continue offering the Chinese people opportunities for improved health, wealth and happiness. This opinion is, necessarily, transformative. We seek not to conserve what came before but rather to build newer, fairer and more profitable structures upon that robust foundation. This is a strategy of synthesis, and it is one with which we hope you will agree whole-heartedly. With best regards, Dr. Harley Seyedin President, American Chamber of Commerce in South China Winner of the 2017 Oslo Business for Peace Award (together with Elon Musk) , awarded by the Award Committee of Nobel Laureates in Peace and Economics Visiting Scholar, Jinan University, Guangzhou, PRC President, Allelon Energy Partners 会长致辞 从华南美国商会第一次发布年度 中国营商环境白 皮书 开始， 至今已是第十四个年头。 我相信今年的 “白皮 书” 比以往更出色。 该 “白皮书” 的撰写共耗时六个多月， 并由来自太平洋两岸的杰出专家组完成， 其中包括七位 拥有博士学位的专家以及受人尊敬的教授， 企业高管以 及法律和金融学者。 我们的 “白皮书” 解读中国在过去一 年的各项政策， 以逻辑严谨的论述结构， 提出有利于中国 经济和外国投资者的建议中国经济已经取得了历史性 增长， 对此外国投资者可谓功不可没。 在我们的 “白皮书” 得出结论之前， 它需要呈现清楚的事实和合理的逻辑。 我 们的目标是先赢得读者的尊重， 然后再得到他们的认同。 为了实现这个目标， 我们构建了一个平衡中立的论 述框架。 在此基础上， 我们做了大量的调查研究， 并详尽 引用了各方面的观点和数据， 使我们的论述有理有据， 真 实可靠。 与其说这本 “白皮书” 代表了华南美国商会的观 点， 不如说它浓缩了众多利益群体的意见并加以提炼。 本 “白皮书” 参考的信息和数据来源覆盖面极广， 既包括国 内外的媒体报道， 也包括来自全世界学者和统计学家的 意见。 从多个方面而言， 2020年令人失望， 也令人难忘。 我 们原计划将中美第二或第三阶段的谈判进展作为本书的 主题。 谁料新冠疫情爆发， 引发一系列严重后果， 也打乱 了我们原有的节奏。 许多人痛失挚爱亲友。 在悲痛之余， 还要应对疫情对业务造成的冲击。 我相信， 随着2021年的到来， 会有更多值得我们自豪 的事情发生。 我们挺过这次灾难， 再次崛起， 犹如凤凰涅 槃。 我们齐心协力， 互伸援手， 战胜危机。 中国成为首个实 现复工复产的国家， 这背后是说不尽的艰辛。 例如， 为了 让会员企业的主管以及国际学校的老师和管理人员尽早 回到中国， 我们全力配合广东省商务厅及外事办公室等 政府部门的工作。 当时， 要让身在他国的人员重返中国、 回归工作岗位并不容易， 但我们做到了。 尽管大家都身处 困境， 华南美国商会仍成功募得数百万美元的现金和物 资， 将其送到需要的人手中， 因为我们深知， 贡献社区即 造福企业。 最终， 我们的成功取决于会员的努力和贡献。 新冠疫 情爆发之初， 华南美国商会的会员迅速行动， 到2020年2 月中旬已捐献了3800万美元的现金和价值105万美元的 物资， 用于援助湖北武汉及其它需要帮助的地区。 我们的 会员还分别在2008年汶川地震和2013年雅安地震捐赠了 数百万美元 （2008年为3500万美元； 2013年为1400万美 元） 。 2020年共有550名嘉宾参加我们举办的冬季舞会， 我 很高兴看到大家能够慷慨解囊， 为广州市妇女儿童医疗 中心捐赠善款。 所有的善款都直接捐给医院基金会， 用来 支付贫困孤儿的手术费用。 在过去的十年中， 我们已经筹 集了超过5,172,000元人民币的现金， 挽救了221名孤儿的 生命。 我们还筹集了价值12,945,811元人民币的物资， 再 加上我们的投资， 已帮助四条贫困村庄和数万贫困村民 脱贫。 这些慈善项目都取得了巨大的成功。 我始终相信， 慈善事业会为明天带来希望， 而我们能做的远不止这些。 2020年新冠疫情对经济造成百年一遇的冲击， 产生 了深远广泛的影响。 若以产出总量衡量， 全球经济正逐渐 从衰退中复苏。 全球77亿人中， 也许没几个人曾经历过这 种程度的衰退。 疫苗的上市将加速2021年的经济复苏。 但 新冠疫情带来的其它影响将决定未来数年的全球增长 趋势。 有些影响早已显现。 机器人将进一步取代工厂和服 务岗位， 白领们会更多地居家办公。 国家之间和国家内部 的发展不平衡状况将进一步加剧。 政府将在保障民生方 面发挥更大的作用， 这意味着更多的财政支出和更高的 负债率。 尽管如此， 政策决策者必须果断行动。 虽然全球 经济在经历了2020年4.3%的萎缩后已实现再次增长， 但 疫情造成死亡和患病人数攀升， 令数百万人陷入贫困， 还 可能长期抑制经济活动， 导致收入减少。 为克服疫情造成 的影响， 应对投资受阻， 必须大力改善营商环境， 提升劳 动力和产品市场的灵活性， 提高透明度和治理能力。 中国 经济继去年2%的增长过后， 有望在2021年实现7.9%的增 长。 2020年， 中国以外的新兴市场和发展中经济体经历了 5%的萎缩， 有望在2021年实现3.4%的增长。 低收入国家 2020年的经济萎缩了0.9%， 预计在2021年增长3.3%。 据联 合国和世界银行报告， 疫情可能对全球经济活动造成长 期持续不利影响， 且由于许多发达国家出现投资乏力、 就 业不足和劳动力减少等情况， 未来十年全球的增长速度 极有可能持续放缓。 除非政策决策者及时针对根本要素进行全面改革， 推动合理经济可持续增长， 否则， 全球经济未来十年的增 长状况将令人失望。 政策决策者需要维持经济的复苏态 势， 逐渐将政策重心从保收入转移至促增长。 长期来看， 新兴市场和发展中国家推行改善卫生和教育服务、 加强 数字基础设施建设、 提升适应气候变化能力以及优化商 业和治理实践等政策有助于减轻疫情造成的经济损失12 13 2021 White Paper on the Business Environment in China The American Chamber of Commerce in South China 减少贫困人口， 促进共同繁荣， 而实行体制改革， 刺激有 机增长， 对于解决公共支出减少和债务高企等问题尤为 重要。 华南美国商会发布的 2021年华南地区经济情况特 别报告 指出， 机遇大于挑战。 作为首个展现复苏迹象的 主要经济体， 中国早已成功度过新冠疫情带来的严峻危 机。 华南美国商会的会员企业也经受住了不同程度的冲 击。 虽然2020年全球经济深受新冠疫情等因素的影响， 但 在华再投资盈利只出现略微下降， 17%的受访企业2020 年的再投资额比2019年有所减少。 在中国巨大的市场潜 力、 各种优惠政策和其他国家疫情的不确定性等因素的 推动下， 外国企业加大在华投资力度或将投资重心转移 到中国。 此外， 绝大多数受访企业仍计划在未来三年内扩 大在华业务。 尽管中美关系剑拔弩张， 几乎所有受访企业 都表示愿意留在中国。 与去年相比， 有更多企业坚信中美 关系会在2021年有所改善。 显然， 美国企业并未放弃中 国。 两国政府必须立即重回谈判桌， 达成全新的第二阶段 协议。 正如亨利福特所言， 对企业有利即对美国有利。 特别报告 指出， 在华外籍高管数量的减少与计划 再投资特大项目的大幅减少存在着直接联系。 大中小型 再投资项目 （100万美元至2.5亿美元） 增加， 在华再投资预 算保持稳定， 而涉及2.5亿美元以上的特大型再投资项目 却达到了近年来的最低值 （所有外资企业同比减少4/5， 美资企业减少近3/4） 。 我们预测， 这将对中国的制造业产 出造成严重的影响， 该影响或将持续两到三年。 上一次类 似情况发生在2016年。 2017年华南地区经济情况特别报 告 预测， 在疫情爆发之前， 中国经济将在2018年和2019 年出现放缓 （GDP增长率在2018年降至6.6， 在2019年降 至6.1） 。 自特朗普上台以来， 这两个全球最大经济体便陷入 了一场激烈的贸易争端。 中美两国互相向对方价值数千 亿美元的产品征收额外关税。 特朗普总统长期指责中国 的不公平贸易和知识产权剽窃行为。 中国人则认为美国 在试图遏制中国崛起成为全球经济大国。 双方正在进行 谈判， 这个过程非常艰难， 但很有必要。 2020年1月， 双方 签署了一份初步协议， 即广为人知的第一阶段协议。 距离 那次谈判已过去一年， 还有一些最为棘手的问题仍未解 决。 如今， 美国迎来新任总统， 有关中美贸易摩擦的不确 定性继续对企业造成伤害， 全球经济承压严重。 特朗普政 府对一系列中国进口产品加征关税， 还以国家安全为由 对华为等中国企业进行严厉制裁， 导致中美关系迅速恶 化。 自40多年前中美关系正常化以来， 中美关系首次跌入 最低谷。 两国在贸易和应对新冠疫情等问题上产生严重 分歧。 许多企业领袖认为， 在获得高科技设备和部件的问 题上， 拜登政府将维持对华强硬态度。 拜登总统可能已决 定要在贸易问题上继续与中国纠缠。 这场争端涉及的双 边贸易额如今已超过7000亿美元。 但不管怎样， 贸易纠纷 这一烫手山芋已经由拜登来接手了。 关税必须要取消。 但拜登早已宣布， 他既不会立即 废除特朗普政府与中国达成的协议， 也不会取消对中国 出口产品加征的关税。 拜登表示， 他将出台针对中国 “不 正当行为” 的政策， 例如， “剽窃知识产权、 产品倾销、 对 企业进行非法补贴” 以及强迫美国企业向中国同行进 行 “技术转让” 等。 他还强调， 必须推动美国两党达成共 识， 政府将重点促进研发、 基础设施和教育等领域投资， 帮助美国企业在中美竞争中胜出。 拜登在上任后的第一 个百日内不会与中国达成新的协议。 据路透社报道， 拜 登曾说， “我希望优先投资美国， 全力制衡中国。 ” 他希望 在采取行动之前先与美国盟友进行谈判。 “我认为， 最好 的对华策略是， 让所有盟友， 或者至少曾经的盟友， 和我 们站在同一阵营。 ” 在回应拜登的言论时， 中国外交部发言人华春莹重 申了中方长期以来的立场， 即中美双方的贸易关系应该 是互利共赢的。 她表示， “应该本着互相尊重、 平等协商的 精神解决贸易纠纷。 ” 我们对两国领导人的意见表示赞 同， 但两国政府的行动不在同一平面上。 双方必须重新回 到谈判桌前。 双方都希望达成强有力的贸易协议， 国际业 务机遇很快就会到来。 是时候忙碌起来了。 世界会如何看待中国经济？ 对此， 我们将会做出深度 解读。 最后， 我们提出一条建议： 中国要继续在发展的道 路上迈进， 让中国人民拥有更多机会， 创造更健康、 更富 裕、 更幸福的生活。 也就是说， 中国必须继续进行改革。 我 们已经取得了举世瞩目的成就， 但我们不能固步自封； 相 反， 我们需要在已经创造的坚实基础上， 创造更新颖、 更 公平、 更有益的经济结构。 这是我们综合各方面意见之后 得出的结论， 我们相信各位读者也会完全表示认同。 祝好！ 哈利赛亚丁博士 华南美国商会 会长 2017年奥斯陆商业促和平奖 获奖者 (同期获奖者包括 伊隆马斯克) 由诺贝尔和平奖及经济奖评审委员会授予 暨南大学 访问学者 阿来龙能源 总裁14 15 2021 White Paper on the Business Environment in China The American Chamber of Commerce in South China Part I Commentary 第一部分 评论 1.1 The